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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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P

Piecake

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
That map is so amazing to me. How does an entire country rally behind a single politician like that? It's so inconceivable to me. 49 states - and this was only in 1984. It's not like this is ancient American history.

This is the kind of thing that I would always believe could never happen. Except, of course, that it did.
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http://prospect.org/article/hardened-divide-american-politics-0

Although news reports and commentators during this year’s presidential election have focused on twists in the race and shifts in polls, the real story about campaigns since the mid-1990s is how little movement there is during a general election. American voters are much less open to persuasion by the other side than they used to be. With increased partisan polarization among voters, how states vote from one election to the next also changes much less than it previously did. That’s the reason we can talk about “red states” and “blue states” and focus on only a few battlegrounds. Election outcomes aren’t foreordained, but all the movement has been taking place within a relatively narrow range.
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Basically, 84 was before the hyperpolarization that occured during the mid-90s. Hyperpolarization seems normal to us, but it only became the norm in the 90s
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Man I cant believe there is only one early voting polling place in Franklin County, Ohio. That's like a million people living in Columbus and its surrounding suburbs. WTF. If anyone has voted at the polling station at Morse Rd, how long are the lines on weekends?

I thought Hillary had Ohio in the bag after the first debate, I am devastated that she might lose it now. My coworker's girlfriend went from never trump to Pro Trump after Comey's announcement. Now she thinks Hillary is just as bad as Trump and she will stick with Trump due to his conservative values.

Thanks Comey!
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Did we make the right choice?

-1x-1.jpg
 
D

Diablos

Member
whyamihere said:
Gonna be funny when Strickland and Bayh lose and McGinty and Ross win.
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McGinty yes. Ross not sure.

My prediction for the Senate is now hold NV + gain WI, IL, PA, hopefully NC/MO/NH. One of those three. I think this is best case but we might fall short and have 49. Eek
 
S

streetsahead123

Banned
Maledict said:
This is really frustrating.

3 point polling errors do happen quite often. In single polls. That's why you don't look at any one poll, and look at the aggregate. And one candidate having a 3 point lead in the aggregate, and a continual lead for the entirety of the campaign, is not the same as a 3 point lead in a single poll!

I occasionally have to remind myself that Nate always engaged in bad punditry (go back and read some of his 2008 / 2012 posts), and that we've sort of ignored those in favour of praising him as a maths genius.
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There was a 3-4 point polling error in the aggregate in 2012 tho
 
T

TyrantII

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
I mean, Minnesota is Mondale's home state, you would expect him to hold that one if there's only one.

In any other election, it wouldn't be the anywhere near the last blue state standing.

All that said, Trump isn't winning Minnesota.
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Less polarization, a bad economy, Democrats stating home because of a huge split in the party.
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
why is Spirit Cooking the # 1 trend on my twitter right now

why am i seeing a gaffer i know asking about rescinding his vote in light of these disturbing events

fucking new level of clownshoes here, this hastag is about to be what pushes me from agnostic to atheist jesus christ

Diablos said:
Yes. Hopefully it's not that tight.
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when i was looking Murphy up a few months ago, he was really awful on some stances...just not much to get excited about there

rubio's a joke but we've reelected rick scott & pam bondi down here so never underestimate us
 
E

EmCeeGramr

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
So did we see the. EPIC/MRA MI poll?

42/38 Clinton?
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http://www.epicmra.com/team.htm

Company - Team
Bernie Porn, Founding Principal and President
Bernie Porn is a partner and President of EPIC▪MRA. Drawing on over three decades of research and communication experience, Mr. Porn's primary role with the firm involves the writing and analysis of the survey research conducted for EPIC▪MRA 's clients. He is also looked to by members of the media, academia and others for commentary on the wide spectrum of topics researched by the firm.

Mr. Porn is a graduate of Aquinas College in Grand Rapids, majoring in urban affairs and schooled in statistics. He was a staff member in the Michigan House of Representatives for nineteen years, serving as the Director of Communications from 1990 to 1992. He worked extensively on the 1981 and 1991 Michigan legislative and congressional redistricting.
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Epic MRA president Bernie Porn
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
maabus1999 said:
Okay so what's next HA Goodman article?
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Explain to me how a Nazi is getting over 44% of the vote when there's a white, Christian, heavily pro military Methodist from a middle class family running for president that was slow on the roll to adopt gay marriage, favors military intervention in countries, is pro oil, does not want to raise taxes on the lower, middle, and even upper-middle classes, and was the first lady of ARKANSAS. And said Nazi is from New York, is extremely wealthy, assaults women, can't even name parts of the bible or the constitution, has never read a book in his life, was born rich... it doesn't make sense.

Think about that. Maybe it's not the Nazi that's the mistake, here.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp 3m3 minutes ago
Clinton camp says they will have almost 1 million volunteers working this weekend on GOTV
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That's an insane number. No matter what happens Tuesday the Dems are leaving it all on the field.
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
Spoiled Milk said:
Did we make the right choice?

-1x-1.jpg
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I truly believe Sanders would have been labeled SOCIALIST in so many ads it would have destroyed him. Just ads with him saying "I'm a democratic socialist" would have gotten him fucked with independents.

I say that but Trump's campaign/business possibly having ties to Russia does nothing to some people so who knows, really.
 
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