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[A Human Becoming]

Everyone relates socialist to communist because of cold war so it is worse than being labeled a criminal. That being said Russia is being run by an ex-KGB agent who the Republican nominee is in love with..... so maybe it could of been a wash in public perception, but I doubt it.

Socialist does not carry a stigma in the Dem primaries. It absolutely does for general election voters 40 and older.

Both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses, so I don't think anyone can definitively say Sanders would have done worse or better.

Unfortunately for Hillary, most of her weaknesses are perception, not reality.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

People continue to miss the biggest issue with a hypothetical Sanders run against Trump. Jeff fucking Weaver would have been running his campaign. Let that sink in a bit. This is the same fucking guy who thought that the strategy of completely ignoring the southern states during the primaries was an acceptable strategy to win. He's fucking clueless.

Edit: Also according to many Clinton is the worst Democratic nominee in history. What does that tell you about Sanders since he couldn't beat the worst nominee ever

Rigged!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So I just realized that these paid Russian troll accounts on Facebook are extremely easy to identify. Their profiles all say they speak Russian, Spanish, French and Portuguese. You'd think someone would have realized it's an obvious giveaway.

This is like a much easier version of that MGS5 mission.

 

[MetalGearZed]

AAAHHHH THUGS!!!

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Hispanics helping stump the Trump is pure karma.

Taking AZ and keeping TX within 5 may be enough to scare the GOP into reviving immigration reform. But then I laugh and remember that the Freedumb Caucus wags the rest of the Republican Party

 

[Atlagev]

LOL

Clinton campaign says to stop refreshing 538. Her camp definately reads PoliGaf

I'm too nervous to do phone banking stuff, so I just gave her $45.

My wife, however, who has experience with this kind of stuff (she volunteered hard for both Dean and Kerry, and was actually in the room when Dean did his "Dean Scream"), is volunteering this weekend.

 

[TheSchwab_7]

So is 538 even reliable? It makes it seem like this race is too close to call, but a few days ago NYT were saying she had the 272 EV before the battleground states! I'm freaking out over here, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of Republicans who are closet Hillary supporters because the other guy is insane.

 

[Y2Kev]

Trump will have Upwards of 7 volunteers on the ground this weekend.

 

[Y2Kev]

Trump will have Upwards of 7 volunteers on the ground this weekend.

Still not Tiffany tho

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So is 538 even reliable? It makes it seem like this race is too close to call, but a few days ago NYT were saying she had the 272 EV before the battleground states! I'm freaking out over here, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of Republicans who are closet Hillary supporters because the other guy is insane.

Hillary is basically assured of winning Nevada at this point due to early voting and if Hillary was just given Nevada in the model, her odds on 538 would shoot up massively (bigly).

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Still not Tiffany tho

Sad!

 

[mo60]

Heh

Wow.

 

[iavi]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

For all the probability it does account for, it doesn't account for early voting?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

Nc is blue. Besides, I don't think 538's model accounts for partial early voting numbers because

IT'S PSEUDOSCIENCE YOU HACKS

 

[fantomena]

Just found out that a friend of mine, who I kind-of-respected too, might be a Trump supporter.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

He doesn't take early voting into account, only polls

 

[Zukkoyaki]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

Their model doesn't incorporate early voting data.

Spoiler

Just the TRENDZ!!!!

 

[BadRNG]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

538's model doesn't factor in early voting at all IIRC, just polls.

 

[Angry Grimace]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

Because that's completely irrelevant to 538's model. It's like saying Nate should update his model on November 9th to reflect who actually won.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

So is 538 even reliable? It makes it seem like this race is too close to call, but a few days ago NYT were saying she had the 272 EV before the battleground states! I'm freaking out over here, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of Republicans who are closet Hillary supporters because the other guy is insane.

Useless, especially right now.

Trump has to win all of the swing states and flip a blue state like MI, WI or PA. The chances of that are a lot lower than whatever chances 538 gives Trump right now.

 

[Basileus777]

How do we have reports of record Dem turnout in early voting for NC/FL and they still show as red on 538?

For all the probability it does account for, it doesn't account for early voting?

The model doesn't account for early voting, none of these models do and that's not something fair to single out Silver for, at least when it comes to the modeling. The fact that his writing and punditry doesn't take these things into account is a real issue. Most of 538's issues are because of its writing to be honest.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Because that's completely irrelevant to 538's model. It's like saying Nate should update his model on November 9th to reflect who actually won.

I can see him doing that

Kind of like those guys who go back and change their draft projections based on who went where and ended up being good (Chad Ford!!)

 

[thezerofire]

It's "Jay Z" not "Jay-Z" get with the times

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Still not Tiffany tho

The ground game is in her heart.

 

[tuxfool]

Just found out that a friend of mine, who I kind-of-respected too, might be a Trump supporter.

Stabbing scene would be more appropriate.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If the oppo exists, it must be revealed in the next few hours.

Rick Wilson, Liz Mair, and Cesare right now.

 

[TheSchwab_7]

Thanks for the explanation. Maybe I should take a deeper look into 538's model. I guess I don't understand these models so much.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

The ground game is in her heart.

Trumps have planes and heli-choppers. Ground Game is for dirty poors and Crooked Hillary. Sad!

 

[Y2Kev]

Posted while a C+ poll in Utah dropped her percentage 1.3 points and flipped NC and FL to red.

538's model wets the bed worse than any of us.

Also I'm sorry this is embarrassing. Even if you take it to mean trump is consolidating republicans or white people or mormons or trolls or fuckheads, how does a c+ poll in Utah move the numbers like this

 

[Slayven]

If the oppo exists, it must be revealed in the next few hours.

Rick Wilson, Liz Mair, and Cesare right now.

LOL I was just thinking about that, if it doesn't drop before 5. It might as well not exist.

 

[Basileus777]

Also I'm sorry this is embarrassing. Even if you take it to mean trump is consolidating republicans or white people or mormons or trolls or fuckheads, how does a c+ poll in Utah move the numbers like this

Movement in Utah means Republicans are coming home in NC!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Also I'm sorry this is embarrassing. Even if you take it to mean trump is consolidating republicans or white people or mormons or trolls or fuckheads, how does a c+ poll in Utah move the numbers like this

A C+ poll where Trump is at 33% in a state that Romney got 67% in.

 

[Manmademan]

Speaking of, this posted yet?



Hispanics helping stump the Trump is pure karma.

They're all going to ticket split for Rubio so Murphy is toast, right

 

[Retro]

Trump will have Upwards of 7 volunteers on the ground this weekend.

Still not Tiffany tho

CongratulationsYouPlayedYourself.gif?

 

[Iolo]

Trump will have Upwards of 7 volunteers on the ground this weekend.

He will have at least 23.

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise is used to cajoling stubborn lawmakers into backing important legislation. Now he’s rounding-up a new category of people: voters.

The Louisiana Republican had deployed his political team to seven key House races to help vulnerable Republicans get voters to the polls. The 23-person get-out-the-vote operation — which also includes nine staffers and volunteers from chief deputy whip Patrick McHenry’s (R-N.C.) political operation — includes races in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Wisconsin.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

So is 538 even reliable? It makes it seem like this race is too close to call, but a few days ago NYT were saying she had the 272 EV before the battleground states! I'm freaking out over here, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of Republicans who are closet Hillary supporters because the other guy is insane.

If you're freaking out reach out to the local dems and do some phone banking. Regarding 538, there are reasons to think that its 'trend seeking' model combined with a move to Trump caused by that letter from Comey is making things closer than they appear.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Why don't Democrats brag about having the oldest political party in the world? The Republicans constantly want to remind people about how they started with Lincoln and how old and long lasting they are.

But the Democrats are older. And yea, we're not going to brag about Jackson being our first official president, but the party has roots in Jefferson, and that's certainly worth bringing up.

Democrats don't really talk much at all about their legacy. I guess maybe because it's not really that great of a legacy? It kind of hurts when the first 100 years of the party they were the party of the racists. But Republicans constantly bring up Lincoln and Reagan and how wonderful and successful the GOP has been since it started.

Is it because the GOP has to prop their modern party up with their successful past?

 

[bodyofanamerican]

Trump will have Upwards of 7 volunteers on the ground this weekend.

RYAN: Looks like it's tightening up. What do your internals say?
TRUMP: Our... hm. Well. Sure. Let me start by saying, we have those?
RYAN

God,I love this Twitter account.

 

[mo60]

A C+ poll where Trump is at 33% in a state that Romney got 67% in.

More like 73%.

 

[RastaMentality]

Hillary's campaign machinery never fails to shock me at how good they are at this. i'm excited to see how this concert works out.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Also I'm sorry this is embarrassing. Even if you take it to mean trump is consolidating republicans or white people or mormons or trolls or fuckheads, how does a c+ poll in Utah move the numbers like this

Other high-profile analysts are sick of this as well, like Dave Rothschild (PredictWise):

@DavMicRot David Rothschild Retweeted Jay Arnold
I cannot stress this enough, movement in state-level polling in red-states is completely meaningless and should not move a model at all

I'm getting the feeling that Harry Enten has grown skeptical of their model as well. He's been discussing how unlikely it is for Trump to close 3-4+ point gaps this late, pointing out bad polls and actually acknowledging early vote on Twitter a LOT the past few days.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Why don't Democrats brag about having the oldest political party in the world? The Republicans constantly want to remind people about how they started with Lincoln and how old and long lasting they are.

But the Democrats are older. And yea, we're not going to brag about Jackson being our first official president, but the party has roots in Jefferson, and that's certainly worth bringing up.

Democrats don't really talk much at all about their legacy. I guess maybe because it's not really that great of a legacy? It kind of hurts when the first 100 years of the party they were the party of the racists. But Republicans constantly bring up Lincoln and Reagan and how wonderful and successful the GOP has been since it started.

Is it because the GOP has to prop their modern party up with their successful past?

Dems love to lionize FDR though right, maybe we should tap into LBJ some too though.

 

[A Human Becoming]

A C+ poll where Trump is at 33% in a state that Romney got 67% in.

While not being exactly apples to apples, even John McCain got 62.5%, so you can't say his Mormonism was the main reason.

 

[Angry Grimace]

He will have at least 23.

23 and Me: A Ground Game Story

 

[Basileus777]

Why don't Democrats brag about having the oldest political party in the world? The Republicans constantly want to remind people about how they started with Lincoln and how old and long lasting they are.

But the Democrats are older. And yea, we're not going to brag about Jackson being our first official president, but the party has roots in Jefferson, and that's certainly worth bringing up.

Democrats don't really talk much at all about their legacy. I guess maybe because it's not really that great of a legacy? It kind of hurts when the first 100 years of the party they were the party of the racists. But Republicans constantly bring up Lincoln and Reagan and how wonderful and successful the GOP has been since it started.

Is it because the GOP has to prop their modern party up with their successful past?

I'm not sure why they should, most of that history is dark, and political parties aren't sports teams where anyone cares about ancient history.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why don't Democrats brag about having the oldest political party in the world? The Republicans constantly want to remind people about how they started with Lincoln and how old and long lasting they are.

But the Democrats are older. And yea, we're not going to brag about Jackson being our first official president, but the party has roots in Jefferson, and that's certainly worth bringing up.

Democrats don't really talk much at all about their legacy. I guess maybe because it's not really that great of a legacy? It kind of hurts when the first 100 years of the party they were the party of the racists. But Republicans constantly bring up Lincoln and Reagan and how wonderful and successful the GOP has been since it started.

Is it because the GOP has to prop their modern party up with their successful past?

I absolutely do not want the Dems to talk about the fact that they were a political party in 1829 to 1931.

That time period was very very bad...

I mean, Jefferson hated building roads and hated national banks and was a super neocon so it's hard to say he's similar to the modern Democratic party in any way.

 

[Cyanity]

Rush Limbaugh is trying to tell his supporters that the Clintons and the Podestas are cannibal satanist devil worshippers and I'm trying not to drive off the road I'm laughing so hard

 

[Revolver]

Just found out that a friend of mine, who I kind-of-respected too, might be a Trump supporter.

Was out yesterday and saw a cousin of mine wearing a red MAGA cap. I just avoided him. I haven't spoken to him in a couple of years and we weren't real close but it was still depressing. His little girl has muscular dystrophy and I don't see how he can look her in the eye.

 

[Slayven]

I like to think the fact they dragged Ted Cruz out on the trail means they know they are done

 

[bodyofanamerican]

Rush Limbaugh is trying to tell his supporters that the Clintons and the Podestas are cannibal satanist devil worshippers and I'm trying not to drive off the road I'm laughing so hard

I can't even laugh at this stuff anymore. It's genuinely terrifying.