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[Voysa Reezun]

This is nerverwracking. Trying to trust the polls but man, the threat of failure is too great. Terrifying what the bad outcome would look like.

Read the reports on early voting in NV, FL, NC, and hell, even TX.

You'll feel great (if you want Hillary to win, that is).

 

[Frank the Great]

So the oppo dream is dead?

 

[Angry Grimace]

This is nerverwracking. Trying to trust the polls but man, the threat of failure is too great. Terrifying what the bad outcome would look like.

The actual answer is Mike Pence is president and Trump is a noisy figurehead.

 

[nature boy]

There's been some discussion of this but is anyone else surprised by the lack of major national polls? We're four days away I would have expected the final dump by this point.

You had CBS/NYT, today the Fox News poll comes out, ABC/Wapo have their tracker.

So CNN/ORC and NBC/WSJ are left.

 

[BSsBrolly]

What's nerve-racking is that we are still seeing polls without a candidate at or above 50%...

By still seeing, I mean we haven't seen any with a candidate at or above 50%.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Harper Polling has PA tied:

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE

 

[BiggNife]

So the oppo dream is dead?

If there isn't any by the end of tonight then it doesn't exist or it couldn't be corroborated enough to be released by the press.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So the oppo dream is dead?

Like two hours left until Cesare gets banned.

 

[tedrotheredro]

So the oppo dream is dead?

 

[Green Yoshi]

I truly believe Sanders would have been labeled SOCIALIST in so many ads it would have destroyed him. Just ads with him saying "I'm a democratic socialist" would have gotten him fucked with independents.

I say that but Trump's campaign/business possibly having ties to Russia does nothing to some people so who knows, really.

One of Trump's main arguments was "Your donors use tax evasions, too". But against Sanders this statement would be pointless.

Also I don't think that you could scare many people with the label "socialist" anymore.

A landslide for Sanders would have been very likely.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Like two hours left until Cesare gets banned.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

So the oppo dream is dead?

I'll refresh this thread on my phone after twenty minutes, and there will be like four more pages of posts, and I'll think some oppo has been droppo'd, but nope. It's actually four pages of bedwetting and people asking when the oppo will be droppo'd.

I never learn.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Harper Polling has PA tied:

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE

IVR robo-poll... Take that sucker with a grain of salt.

 

[Trouble]

Hillary's campaign is just getting lazy with these press releases.

 

[Manmademan]

Hasn't the DNC itself largely given up on him? Did I miss a development there?

We all want Rubio to lose, just skeptical given all the polling we've seen. I've seen you write extensively on why the polling can be wrong due to how polls lump all Hispanics in together, and I really hope you're right. Guess we'll see, just a few more days to go!

I've written about the Hispanic increase to death by now, and how the huge numbers of new voters since 2012 has fucked Florida polling so badly it isn't reliable many many times.

But that aside...it's very interesting that the assumption is that Hispanics will ticket split for Rubio when that's never actually been shown to be true.

Rubio won in 2010....a wave election year for republicans in the most favorable conditions possible with 49% of the vote. The remaining vote was split between crist running as an independent and a no name democrat.

In a year with normal turnout, or one strong candidate on the D side he would have been dismantled.

Since then Rubio has become absolutely loathed in the state. PPP had his approval in the 30% range in June with 50% disapproving....that's the only polling I can find on that. It's just assumed he's better liked than he actually is.

The "ticket splitting" argument revolves entirely around the assumption that Hispanic voters regardless of origin will vote for Rubio en masse while preferring Clinton by 60/30 margins, ignoring his horrible job performance because he has a Hispanic last name.

This is not only bizarre, it's kind of racist. Republicans run token candidates all the time based on this theory and it never works.

 

[Piecake]

The Democratic party controlled Alabama's state government until Obama was elected. 2008 feels like a cleaner cut point.

Then the Alabama democratic party was relying heavily on racist votes to win elections at that point. The democratic national party and other democratic state parties certainly were not.

As a result, that date should either be moved up to at least 2000 or your description of the time period should be changed.

 

[RustyNails]

Like two hours left until Cesare gets banned.

Oppo is a lie. Rick Wilson is a lie. Cesare is a lie.

 

[nature boy]

I'll refresh this thread on my phone after twenty minutes, and there will be like four more pages of posts, and I'll think some oppo has been droppo'd, but nope. It's actually four pages of bedwetting, people bitching about 538 till no end and people asking when the oppo will be droppo'd.

I never learn.

FTFY

 

[metalslimer]

Is there anyone even hyping oppo in the press right now? Of course the pussy tape just dropped out of nowhere with no warning.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Oppo is a lie. Rick Wilson is a lie. Cesare is a lie.

Lie or a mess?

 

[HanShotFirst]

Oppo, oppoing, oppology the study of oppo! Its first grade!

 

[daedalius]

Lie or a mess?

whynotboth.gif

 

[Iolo]

Harper Polling has PA tied:

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE

538 rating A+

 

[Beer Monkey]

People.

Quit following Nate.

Follow Sam.

Ice water flows through your veins 24/7 after that.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

All these trashcan rinky dink polling companies coming out of the woodwork to get one last poll in this election.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Oppo is a lie. Rick Wilson is a lie. Cesare is a lie.

Still no word on the cake.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I wonder if Silver is going to tweet out about THE BETTING MARKETS now that they disagree with his model.

 

[Iolo]

People.

Quit following Nate.

Follow Sam.

Ice water flows through your veins 24/7 after that.

But partisan differential response could lead to systemic polling error.

 

[HanShotFirst]

Still no word on the cake.

lol. you video gamers are CAH-RAZY!

 

[AntraxSuicide]

There's not much point now to looking at polling. People are already voting, so any election analysis is just clearly incorrect if it fails to mention the data we're seeing.

And yes, this includes any Hillary +15 nonsense as well. And on that note, one of the worst defenses of his model was when Silver threw out the "Hey, my model also predicts the highest chance of a Clinton landslide!" as if the criticism was coming from people just mad that her chances were low. If that were the case, don't you think more people would be attacking RCP?

If the best cover you've got is "all of my critics are biased" then I'm going to have to say your point sounds like shit.

LOL

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I want Hillary to come out to Deathspell Omega or some Satanic black metal band to start one of her rallies today.

 

[Green Yoshi]

Read the reports on early voting in NV, FL, NC, and hell, even TX.

You'll feel great (if you want Hillary to win, that is).

I would not overestimate early voting:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

German media hates Trump btw. In polls 87% of Germans want Clinton to be the next president and only 5% support Trump.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I would not overestimate early voting:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

German media hates Trump btw. In polls 87% of Germans want Clinton to be the next president and only 5% support Trump.

Germans are too pessimistic. There are no hidden Trump voters.

 

[Blader]

One of Trump's main arguments was "Your donors use tax evasions, too". But against Sanders this statement would be pointless.

Also I don't think that you could scare many people with the label "socialist" anymore.

A landslide for Sanders would have been very likely.

Here's my counterargument:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx

Now, maybe over the following year and change, Bernie could've completely turned that around! But in a campaign cycle where a significant portion of the electorate is deathly afraid of the idea of Muslims, the fact that Americans would be inclined to vote for a Muslim president than a socialist one seems like Bernie would have faced a giant uphill battle.

And as previously pointed out, Bernie being the nominee would've meant his campaign would be run by Jeff Weaver, who is totally incompetent. He would've never put together the same coalition-building, data-driven GOTV effort that Mook is overseeing -- and clearly didn't, as evidenced by Hillary winning in a landslide over Bernie.

 

[Debirudog]

If only America valued the same things in a public servant as German does, Hillary would win BIGLY.

 

[Syncytia]

Remember everyone regardless of what does or doesn't come out, the oppo is inside of us. It's in all of us, we are the oppo.

 

[Hazmat]

+1 for Clinton and Big Daddy Kaine in Texas. We never had a chance at taking the state, but I'm interested to see the results for the first time ever.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

For real, what's the best place I can put some money up for this election.

Easy money if I've ever seen it.

 

[Iolo]

I would not overestimate early voting:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

German media hates Trump btw. In polls 87% of Germans want Clinton to be the next president and only 5% support Trump.

Well, my understanding is that people who didn't vote for decades would probably have been removed from the voter rolls and would have had to reregister, but we haven't really seen a surge in registrations. It would be possible that people who didn't vote recently will suddenly vote though.

 

[Beer Monkey]

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

Old white people are the most dependable voters out there. This is America.

 

[GutsOfThor]

I want Hillary to come out to Deathspell Omega or some Satanic black metal band to start one of her rallies today.

Fuck yes!

How epic would it be if she walked out to this song by Inquisition lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mu0UfDmJYEY

 

[Maxim726X]

For real, what's the best place I can put some money up for this election.

Easy money if I've ever seen it.

sportsbook.ag

Easy peasy. Used them before, no problem getting winnings.

Put 5k on this election, thinking about dropping more.

 

[Fragamemnon]

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

This hasn't been seen in:

Early voting results
nationwide polling
voter registration changes/data

The only big shifts that happened where in some states where Republicans who were still registered as Democrats reassigned parties so they could vote in the contested primary.

People that disillusioned for that long with the system just aren't going to vote.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I would not overestimate early voting:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

German media hates Trump btw. In polls 87% of Germans want Clinton to be the next president and only 5% support Trump.

The hidden Trump voter has essentially been debunked:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/u...count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

(This focuses on white voters, but the arguments are basically the same)

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I would not overestimate early voting:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

German media hates Trump btw. In polls 87% of Germans want Clinton to be the next president and only 5% support Trump.

If you don't vote for decades, you need to re-register, and considering there's no evidence of a massive block of new white voters registering, these shadow voters (that don't actually exist) will be pretty surprised when they're not able to vote

When 60-70% of a state has already voted, and one candidate is leading those voters by a large margin, it seems pretty bad to just say "well, don't overestimate the votes of 70% of the population of a state" because that sounds stupid. That 40-30% of the voting population is not going to be able to overcome the 60-70%.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

This year, hidden Trump voters simply refers to people voting without bothering to even take off their hoods.

 

[Iolo]

If you don't vote for decades, you need to re-register, and considering there's no evidence of a massive block of new white voters registering, these shadow voters (that don't actually exist) will be pretty surprised when they're not able to vote

Another problem that a robust GOTV effort is meant to address

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Off topic but Blizzcon was underwhelming as fuck

 

[Dishwalla]

Wow this Obama speech on CNN.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

In a German podcast they speculated that people, that didn't vote for decades, will vote for Trump because they hate the system and think it's responsible for their misery.

This has never accurately described Republicans. They vote habitually, and we have data that Trump isn't turning out new voters. He's getting people that most certainly voted against Obama, but he's also losing people that voted for McCain/Romney

Here's my counterargument:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx

Now, maybe over the following year and change, Bernie could've completely turned that around! But in a campaign cycle where a significant portion of the electorate is deathly afraid of the idea of Muslims, the fact that Americans would be inclined to vote for a Muslim president than a socialist one seems like Bernie would have faced a giant uphill battle.

And as previously pointed out, Bernie being the nominee would've meant his campaign would be run by Jeff Weaver, who is totally incompetent. He would've never put together the same coalition-building, data-driven GOTV effort that Mook is overseeing -- and clearly didn't, as evidenced by Hillary winning in a landslide over Bernie.

You also have to factor in the oppo. Yes, it's out there, and no, it almost never came up because it wasn't necessary. But I really don't like the idea of a headline after the Access Hollywood tape comes out, and people throw up Bernie's college letter about women fantasizing about rape in the same story. That would not play well for us. I also don't think Bernie would be this close to flipping AZ and rocking Florida; Hispanic voters are Clinton backers for sure. They kept her very close to Obama in '08, and she's the candidate to really fold them into the Obama coalition.

Honestly, I think in 15 years we'll be calling it the Obama/Clinton coalition instead. Barack started the work, and Hillary's going to fold in white women, college-educated men, and larger numbers of Hispanic voters into the group. That's a big fucking tent.