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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Is CNN covering either breaking story tonight? (Melania working without a visa, and Trump's payoff to cover up his affair..)

These aren't stunning, but if they put the attention on Trump.. we know what happens when the attention goes onto him..
 
G

gotstrangepowers

Banned
Austin! (Clinton could win Travis by 40 points)

sOPw4Uv.jpg
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S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Manmademan said:
the same rubio that won with a whopping 49% of the vote in 2010? tell me more.



exactly. 70% of florida's hispanics aren't cuban, and aren't favorable to him- and younger cubans have been trending D, as I posted above.
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Little Marco who kowtows to Maestro Trump? Yeah he's a mainstream Latino hero.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
there is an important distinction here: While enthusiasm is down, the “perceived importance” of voting for the president is higher this year than it was in 2012 — 56 percent of black voters said it was more important to vote in 2016, compared with only 8 percent who said 2012 was more important. In other words, black voters are still committed to casting their ballots this cycle.
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This was probably already posted from that Vox article. But it makes sense.

Black people are still going to vote like their wellbeing depends on it. Because it does. But they're not necessarily rushing out to do so for a non-Obama.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Why? Just because he's Hispanic doesn't mean Hispanics will vote for him just because.
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Manmademan said:
the same rubio that won with a whopping 49% of the vote in 2010? tell me more.



exactly. 70% of florida's hispanics aren't cuban, and aren't favorable to him- and younger cubans have been trending D, as I posted above.
Click to expand...

but some of them are voting for him. The polls are saying he is getting a plurality share to win. He's not going to "win" them but it will be enough with the 60-65% white share he's going to get.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Oppo Droppo.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Clinton Foundation has confirmed it accepted a $1 million gift from Qatar while Hillary Clinton was U.S. secretary of state without informing the State Department, even though she had promised to let the agency review new or significantly increased support from foreign governments.

Qatari officials pledged the money in 2011 to mark the 65th birthday of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton's husband, and sought to meet the former U.S. president in person the following year to present him the check, according to an email from a foundation official to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign chairman, John Podesta. The email, among thousands hacked from Podesta's account, was published last month by WikiLeaks.

Clinton signed an ethics agreement governing her family's globe-straddling foundation in order to become secretary of state in 2009. The agreement was designed to increase transparency to avoid appearances that U.S. foreign policy could be swayed by wealthy donors.

If a new foreign government wished to donate or if an existing foreign-government donor, such as Qatar, wanted to "increase materially" its support of ongoing programs, Clinton promised that the State Department's ethics official would be notified and given a chance to raise any concerns.

Clinton Foundation officials last month declined to confirm the Qatar donation. In response to additional questions, a foundation spokesman, Brian Cookstra, this week said that it accepted the $1 million gift from Qatar, but this did not amount to a "material increase" in the Gulf country's support for the charity. Cookstra declined to say whether Qatari officials received their requested meeting with Bill Clinton.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/clintons-charity-confirms-qatars-1-million-gift-while-001205827.html
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Basileus777 said:
It's not 2010 anymore. He's a well known and entrenched incumbent now. And he won by 20 points in 2010.
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Miami Cubans have to deal with sunny-day flooding just like everyone else, and were just as pissed when Rubio waved off the idea of Climate Change and Federal infrastructure investments to setup his abortive POTUS run.

He isn't as liked as you may think by the people who should be in the tank for him
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Basileus777 said:
It's not 2010 anymore. He's a well known and entrenched incumbent now. And he won by 20 points in 2010.
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no, he didn't.

ld3YNwP.png


rubio won that election with 48.9% of the vote. the democratic/independent vote was split between two candidates.

2010 was a republican wave election nationally. democrats got obliterated everywhere and lost seats en masse.

In a regular year, Rubio would have been obliterated.

and as for being a well known and entrenched incumbent- the last favorability poll anyone did for Rubio he was underwater with a 30% favorable, 50% unfavorable rating back in mid summer.

Florida HATES that guy.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Manmademan said:
no, he didn't.

ld3YNwP.png


rubio won that election with 48.9% of the vote. the democratic/independent vote was split between two candidates.

2010 was a republican wave election nationally. democrats got obliterated everywhere and lost seats en masse.

In a regular year, Rubio would have been obliterated.

and as for being a well known and entrenched incumbent- the last favorability poll anyone did for Rubio he was underwater with a 30% favorable, 50% unfavorable rating back in mid summer.

Florida HATES that guy.
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He got 49% despite being challenged by well known Republican 3rd party candidate. That's something in his favor if anything. Trying to paint 2010 as Rubio under performing is comical to be honest. And unfavorables aren't very telling here when a lot of that is from Trump supporters who hate him because of the primary but will still vote for him.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Rubio would need Trump numbers with the non-Cuban Hispanics to have any actual chance to lose. He's going to get more than that. He's going to lose significantly among them but his non-Cuban Hispanic vote will still be above 30%.

And you're massively over inflating how bad his 2010 performance was. Crist wasn't hated by moderate Republicans at that point. He got 12% of the Republican vote and who knows how many Republican leaning Independents to vote for him over Rubio in the general election.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Basileus777 said:
He got 49% despite being challenged by well known Republican 3rd party candidate. That's something in his favor if anything. Trying to paint 2010 as Rubio under performing is comical to be honest.
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A republican candidate failing to gain 50% of the vote in the biggest republican wave year in modern history IS underperforming.

Crist was running as an independent. Meek was running as a democrat that qualified via write in petition.

There were (roughly) an equivalent number of registered democrats and republicans in Florida- with a slight edge to democrats (though democrats tend to not show up well in midterms). Numbers don't lie- Crist and Meek were splitting the D vote between themselves.

If Rubio was gaining a significant number of hispanic votes on top of the white vote that votes R no matter what he would have been well over 50%. He wasn't.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Kusagari said:
Rubio would need Trump numbers with the non-Cuban Hispanics to have any actual chance to lose. He's going to get more than that. He's going to lose significantly among them but his non-Cuban Hispanic vote will still be above 30%.
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Rubio's only chance of losing is coattails and Hillary would need to win Florida by like 5 points behind a flood of new voters to pull it off.

Manmademan said:
A republican candidate failing to gain 50% of the vote in the biggest republican wave year in modern history IS underperforming.

Crist was running as an independent. Meek was running as a democrat that qualified via write in petition.

There were (roughly) an equivalent number of registered democrats and republicans in Florida. Numbers don't lie- Crist and Meek were splitting the D vote between themselves.

If Rubio was gaining a significant number of hispanic votes on top of the white vote that votes R no matter what he would have been well over 50%. He wasn't.
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Did you think Bill Clinton's two Presidential elections were underperformances too? Ans you can't split the number of registered voters in half like that when the story of 2010 was Democrats not showing up to the polls.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Basileus777 said:
He got 49% despite being challenged by well known Republican 3rd party candidate. That's something in his favor if anything. Trying to paint 2010 as Rubio under performing is comical to be honest.
Click to expand...

Crist was disavowed by the FLGOP and was both working for, and being supported by a huge Democratic sugar-daddy. He was literally appealing to the Dem base but the actual Dem candidate refused to drop-out.

It's more complicated than you've presented it. We also have 6 years of his foibles and baggage to play with. It's not like his tepid, but public endorsement of Trump has gone unnoticed here. It's a dog fight, but winnable for young master Murphy, that bum
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Manmademan said:
A republican candidate failing to gain 50% of the vote in the biggest republican wave year in modern history IS underperforming.

Crist was running as an independent. Meek was running as a democrat that qualified via write in petition.

There were (roughly) an equivalent number of registered democrats and republicans in Florida- with a slight edge to democrats (though democrats tend to not show up well in midterms). Numbers don't lie- Crist and Meek were splitting the D vote between themselves.

If Rubio was gaining a significant number of hispanic votes on top of the white vote that votes R no matter what he would have been well over 50%. He wasn't.
Click to expand...

He's getting 44% of the Hispanic vote( PR+Cuban) in polls. That will be sufficient to win. He has to get Trump levels in PR+Cuban to lose. That is not happening or showing up in polls.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Basileus777 said:
Rubio's only chance of losing is coattails and Hillary would need to win Florida by like 5 points behind a flood of new voters to pull it off.


Did you think Bill Clinton's two elections were underperformances too?
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Is bill clinton a republican? was the electorate as polarized in 1992 as it was in 2010?

NeoXChaos said:
He's getting 44% of the Hispanic vote( PR+Cuban) in polls. That will be sufficient to win. He has to get Trump levels in PR+Cuban to lose. That is not happening or showing up in polls.
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I've mentioned before, polling isn't correct in FL for this year. none of the recent immigrant migration is showing up there, because none of them are likely voters.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
Crist was disavowed by the FLGOP and was both working for, and being supported by a huge Democratic sugar-daddy. He was literally appealing to the Dem base but the actual Dem candidate refused to drop-out.

It's more complicated than you've presented it. We also have 6 years of his foibles and baggage to play with. It's not like his tepid, but public endorsement of Trump has gone unnoticed here. It's a dog fight, but winnable for young master Murphy, that bum
Click to expand...

Rubio got 49%. Are you telling me that not a single percentage of Crist's vote share was from Republicans? In a two man race Rubio gets a majority and this whole tangent never happens.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Basileus777 said:
Rubio got 49%. Are you telling me that not a single percentage of Crist's vote share was from Republicans? In a two man race Rubio gets a majority and this whole tangent never happens.
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Pretty much, yeah. Rubio is/was a creature of the FLGOP. Crist was immediately abandoned by all his previous backers, even in his stronghold of Hillsborough. He was literally called a traitor and had rumors about his sexuality splashed all over the state by the Repub machine.

The entire Dem base was pretty deflated having to choose between a no-name Black dude, and a GOP retread they had been fighting for 4 years.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Manmademan's insistence that Rubio is going to lose actually makes me wonder if everything in tbjs thread is crazy talk
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Jon Ralston@RalstonReports

They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 PM. Close to 1,000 voters in line. If you have a panic button GOP, find it.
 
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