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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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I've started drinking. I'm scared until our Queen wins.
 
Rubio got 49%. Are you telling me that not a single percentage of Crist's vote share was from Republicans? In a two man race Rubio gets a majority and this whole tangent never happens.

Not a significant percentage, no.

Registration in 2010 looked this way:

2010 4,042,393(R) 4,611,335(D) 2,562,010(I) 11,215,738

Rubio had 2.6 Million Votes.

Crist had 1.6 million votes

Meek had a hair over a million.

That vote was split right down the middle. 2.6 million votes for Meek and Crist out of a potential base of 4.6 million democrats and 2.5 million independents means those two were getting pretty much none of the republican vote.

So it went from +13 Rep to +10 Rep
Wow

look more carefully buddy. The cuban vote has been registering D and NPA in greater numbers every year since 2013. The "republican cuban" advantage is declining, on top of increased immigration from non cubans. Younger cubans are beginning to vote just like younger hispanics everywhere else.

Pretty much, yeah. Rubio is/was a creature of the FLGOP. Crist was immediately abandoned by all his previous backers, even in his stronghold of Hillsborough. He was literally called a traitor and had rumors about his sexuality splashed all over the state by the Repub machine.

The entire Dem base was pretty deflated having to choose between a no-name Black dude, and a GOP retread they had been fighting for 4 years.

exactly. There's a weird narrative that Rubio is a lot stronger than he actually is- just as there was a weird narrative when he was running in the primary that nationwide hispanics would flock to him and bring a new era for the republican party.

Both narratives are false. Rubio was a weak candidate that barely squeaked by in a divided race in what should have been a wave year, and Hispanics nationally didn't like Rubio any better than they like any other republican.

His favorability in florida is absolutely awful. If pat toomey was rocking a 30% favorable rating against mcginty in PA (that's another one that barely squeaked through in a wave year and will be blown out) his obituary would have been written months ago.
 
Manmademan's insistence that Rubio is going to lose actually makes me wonder if everything in tbjs thread is crazy talk

Didn't he also used to swear up and down that the Dems are going to win the House prior to things getting tighter this week? The guy is quite the optimist, to say the least.
 

Iolo

Member
I just wrote a song in honor of Nevada

Nevada save me
Let your warm ballots break right through and
Save me
I don't care how you do it
Just vote, vote
Oh come on
I've been waiting for you
 

Iolo

Member
Im sure its a typo, but it's from +13 Rep to +12 Dem. 25pt swing un 4 years. Wowza

No, that chart is dumb, or at least the tweet was dumb. +12 Dem was new registrations in 2016 itself. +10 Rep is the total registration after the last 4 years of movement toward Dems. Dem movement = +3 in 4 years.

Double post, don't even care. Nevada!
 
Someone, in this thread I think, said their voting place is in a retirement home.

Sky's the limit.


Yea, we have polling places in appartments, condos, retirement and nursing homes as well but they are only for people who live there.........we also have 1/10th the population though
 
No, that chart is dumb, or at least the tweet was dumb. +12 Dem was new registrations in 2016 itself. +10 Rep is the total registration after the last 4 years of movement toward Dems. Dem movement = +3 in 4 years.

Double post, don't even care. Nevada!

You're right, got over excited. This is a huge swing in a GOP stronghold. This bodes very badly for the GOP in Florida, but especially for POTUS chances in the Gunshine State
 
Didn't he also used to swear up and down that the Dems are going to win the House prior to things getting tighter this week? The guy is quite the optimist, to say the least.

I said if Hillary remained at +10, the house should be hers. Wang had that number at +7 back in the summer.

She's currently at about +6, if pollster is accurate- problem is that early voting numbers have fucked the polls so badly I don't consider any of them all that reliable right now, especially not in hispanic states. (NV, FL, TX)

If Hillary ended up sustaining POLLING at +10 (which she didn't) her actual margin would have been closer to 12 or 13.

as it is, we'll have to wait and see where turnout ends up.

Manmademan it's charts like that which make me a little skeptical of your analysis of Florida just sayin

so be skeptical. I'm not running on donations. if it doesn't work for you, move on to the next post.

The chart is the chart though. cuban registration is moving away from the republican party, and has been year over year. This is a good thing. not a gamebreaker, but encouraging.
 
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