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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Slayven said:
It is odd how the news isn't talking about all these records being broken
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It makes me wonder if the 'dead heat' outlets ever think about shifting their message before the election so that they don't look like idiots with no credibility when the election comes around.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
whyamihere said:
Florida. This is insane.
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WKxBK4o.gif
 
B

Brinbe

Member
The minute they (they being the more ratings-driven media like CNN) call it for Hillary, they'll pretend that they knew it all along and all that dead heat/horse race bullshit will be instantly dropped. Completely shameless garbage peddled to idiots.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Slayven said:
It is odd how the news isn't talking about all these records being broken
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Is it really odd though Slayven? We know why they aren't. The horse race brings in ratings. Come Wednesday the story is going to be how trump was dead from the beginning and we just didn't know it. Even though that was always the case.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Don Lemon: Jay Z and Beyonce headlining Hillary's victory ... *everyone starts laughing* ... Hillary's rally.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
whyamihere said:
Wow.



And if those NPAs break Clinton heavily, like expected...
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Yep. like I said. Polls in Florida are laughably, hilariously wrong. RCP (LOL!) has clinton up by 1 point.

This is absolutely not a 1 point race.

"what the hell happened to polls" is going to be the political story november 9th.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Manmademan said:
Yep. like I said. Polls in Florida are laughably, hilariously wrong. RCP (LOL!) has clinton up by 1 point.

This is absolutely not a 1 point race.

"what the hell happened to polls" is going to be the political story november 9th.
Click to expand...

Bit people will be right back to watching Morning Ho a week later like nothing went down, and half the media establishment wasn't providing cover for an orange fascist
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
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Early vote and registration data show no evidence of this.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
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This is not reflected in any data we have. There was no mass white registration push. Trump doesn't even have the ground game to get those people to vote anyway. There is pessimistic and there is literally conjuring up scenarios for no reason.

I can't wait until people realize there is no white wave coming to save Trump.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Fragamemnon said:
do those florida numbers get close to making little marco reach for his water
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He can't possibly be comfortable with them.

remember the last time Rubio tried reaching out to Florida's puerto rican population?

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio got booed off a stage in Orlando on Sunday by a crowd that was overwhelmingly Latino.

It happened at Calle Orange, a street festival in downtown Orlando geared toward the city's large Puerto Rican community. The icy reception was an indication of the challenges that Rubio, a Republican of Cuban heritage, has faced in locking down support from Latinos in Florida as the state's Latino electorate has begun to shift to the left.
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http://www.npr.org/2016/10/25/49930...rs-marco-rubio-gets-booed-at-orlando-festival
 
T

Tommy DJ

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
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If they didn't come out to vote away the black secret muslim, what makes you think they're going out in droves to vote for Trump?
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
Click to expand...


Trump is likely gonna lose white women (or more of it) and college whites.... Soooo
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Wow Scottie just got absolutely destroyed on Don Lemon.

Tried to imply that the Republican party couldn't get black voters as the party opposes Government entitlements.

Immediately got shut down as white people receive more welfare benefits than African Americans.
 
Wiz

Wiz

Member
Well you know what they say...as Nevada goes, so goes the nation!!

Isn't it like the last place to close on Election Day? (besides Alaska/Hawaii)
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
Click to expand...

Is this silent, White horde gonna overcome the White college-educated men and women he's losing badly compared to Romney?
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Univision's on it.

http://www.univision.com/univision-...derestimate-the-democratic-partys-latino-vote

Hillary Clinton may be popular among Latino voters, but Democrats have expressed concern for months about a traditionally poor Hispanic turn out hurting her chances of election.

However, some Latino pollsters say an overlooked factor in mainstream polling data could produce a welcome surprise for Democrats on November 8, especially in several states with large Hispanic populations, such as Florida and Texas.

"In many states with large Latino populations, polls underestimated the Democratic advantage," according to Gabriel Sanchez, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico who is one of the principals at the polling firm Latino Decisions.

That's because the national polls aren’t really focused on the Latino voters, and only have a small sample of Latinos, resulting in a larger margin of error, he explained.

When a sample is only 100 to 200 voters, the margin of error can leap between 10-14 percent. Most polls tend to sample at least 1,000-1,500 voters, with a margin of error of only 3 to 4 percent.

The polls also target the “wrong Latinos,” making their sample unrepresentative of eligible voters, said Sanchez. By not offering interviews in Spanish and relying on interviews via internet and fixed home phone lines, they end up with a biased sample of more assimilated, native-born, higher income and higher educated voters, according to internal poll research conducted by Latino Decisions.

First-generation Hispanics speak less English, rely more on cellphones and often don’t have internet, he noted.

Latino Decisions, some of whose team are working for the Clinton team, did a webinar earlier this month in an effort to alert the media to two key mistakes it has detected in polling. The webinar was conducted by Sanchez, who is not working for the Clinton campaign.

It cited statistical analysis this year by David Damore, a researcher at Latino Decisions, who found “clear evidence” that Latino respondents who appear in mainstream national polls are statistically more likely to be Republicans.

Eduardo Gamarra, a Miami pollster focusing on the Latino vote, agrees and blames the faulty methodology on cost. “It is too expensive to draw large Latino samples if you also are trying to grasp the national market,” he said.

More targeted Hispanic polling conducted for media outlets such as Univision and Telemundo has consistently found stronger support for Clinton than the mainstream national polls.
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Pollsters gonna get shit on come Wednesday!
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
Click to expand...

I don't know if you're joking or not but we have data and from the looks of it we are doing great in NV and Florida is looking like it's ours.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Someone on Lawrence O'Donnell made a really good point earlier.Most of these state polls don't have enough money to do polls in both English and Spanish. We know Latino voters are harder to poll and not polling in Spanish is a big problem. These recent polls seem to have obviously underestimated the Latino vote based on early vote numbers.
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
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Data doesn't show this particularly the registration numbers. Trump's lack of ground hang is going to kill him. Also trump didn't outperform in the polls in the primaries. There has been zero evidence of a secret trump vote.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
I do wonder how much will researched into spanish media's role in this, especially radio.

Reminds me of how when LA had the largest protest it had ever had for immigration reform in 2006, 500k people just kind of appeared in downtown and nobody had any idea it was going to be that large, all organized via spanish radio stations that just weren't on anybody's radar.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Guys, I think it's happening, I think we're getting that Hispanic wave (and god help us, it votes Marco Rubio out of office). God bless Nevada and Florida for providing so much hope. I am not confident it'll be enough to flip Texas, but I think Trump wins it by 3-5%.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I still that even if Hispanics come out in greater numbers, more white people are going to vote who didn't vote in 2012, mostly for Trump in their cases. I think the demographics story is misleading. Hopefully not, but that's what I think.
Click to expand...

about that...

Since the 2012 presidential election, Florida’s voter rolls have grown by 436,000 — and only 24 percent of that increase is from non-Hispanic white voters while non-whites grew by 76 percent, according to new voter registration numbers released in advance of the Aug. 30 primary.
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and...

Another potential problem for the Republican nominee: a majority of the new white voters might be more inclined to support Clinton than Trump. Of the 1.3 million new non-Hispanic white voters who have registered since 2012, 55 percent are under the age of 50, according to an analysis from the Republican-leaning business group Associated Industries of Florida. And recent polls show voters in this age bracket tend to favor Clinton in Florida by double digits.
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http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

That article was written in august. As of the end of september, the increase in the voter rolls were closer to 700K.

More than 12.6 million voters were registered in Florida as of Sept. 30 — up from 11.9 million Florida voters before the 2012 presidential election.
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http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeac...k-of-registration-swells-florida-voter-rolls/

I've even seen numbers as high as 900K though october.

For "unlikely white voters" to turn out, they have to be registered first- and the registration advantage has been WILDLY lopsided.
 
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