I totally agree with this. The models can be forgiven for not incorporating the early votes. Silver's punditry in the face of the data (again!) is unforgivable.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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I totally agree with this. The models can be forgiven for not incorporating the early votes. Silver's punditry in the face of the data (again!) is unforgivable.
For sure, but these numbers have to be putting the fear of God in them right now. The calculus (at some point) has to be between the long-term trajectory of the GOP and the immediate victories.
I keep wondering who the fuck they'll get to be Speaker anyways. If the GOP majority shrinks by 15-20 seats, there are going to be some very interesting shenanigans going on. Ryan will get pushback from the Freedom Caucus, but might be able to swing Dem votes if he compromises on a few things. Any far right choice like Chaffetz or Gohmert would be shot down by the establishment wing. At this point, who knows what it'll look like, but it feels more plausible that we will get Ryan or someone in his vein back instead of a speaker further to the right.
Hellsing321
Member
Same day that Hispanics save our country is the same day that Sombra is announced for Overwatch
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I would be interested if they can program a model which just locks Nevada as blue and then shows the odds of Trump winning.
Same day that Hispanics save our country is the same day that Sombra is announced for Overwatch.
BOOP
Manmademan
Member
you would think he would have learned his lesson from last time
Xamtheking
Member
We assumed they were saving her for Blizzcon, but now the truth is revealedSame day that Hispanics save our country is the same day that Sombra is announced for Overwatch.
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
That's enough political Viagra to keep me aroused for the night, when I come back tomorrow morning I except the bedwetting to begin again because a new poll showing her somehow losing Nevada by 5.
wumster3000
Member
Is that a person or a puppet thingy. Keep that shit out of here. Too close to bedtime for that.
Fragamemnon
Member
They'll get the whip from LA in provided that his remote ties to white supremacists don't freak them out.
McHenry from NC is also a possible pic, as is someone from the Texas GOP delegation.
McHenry from NC is also a possible pic, as is someone from the Texas GOP delegation.
perfectchaos007
Member
Doesn't she need to be x amount of feet from the polls? I guess she could say she was just getting some toilet paper.
If Hillary wins she should push through comprehensive voting reform where early voting is mandatory and the average wait time for voting can't exceed 1 hr.
Basileus777
Member
They could, that would be a nice article to write, how the odds change if you bake in the assumption that Nevada is blue. It'd be more informative than more shit stirring about how polling errors could be hiding Trump's victory.
TumblingHippo
Member
Saw a drawn picture called "gay dragons for trump"
I'm going to bed
I'm going to bed
You know that will be a voice that rotates when she uses abilities. We're gonna be sick of it within a week.
Carpe Carnim
Member
I picked up the habit a few years ago when an English teacher friend of my wife's questioned why I always wrote Latino/a in my texts.
She recommended to avoid the Masculine/Feminine form prob, and save some keystrokes that I just switch to an 'x'
Looks edgier, too
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Nate Silver first tried to argue that a white nationalist was going to lose the Republican primary because the GOP voting base respected their elected officials too much not to listen to them.
Then Nate Silver thought that Trump could beat Harry Reid's machine in a state where Trump called a third of the Democrats there "rapists."
It's been a series of blunders and pain in the last 18 months for Nate Silver.
Then Nate Silver thought that Trump could beat Harry Reid's machine in a state where Trump called a third of the Democrats there "rapists."
It's been a series of blunders and pain in the last 18 months for Nate Silver.
I doubt Scalise could garner the votes though. I just keep thinking back to the last transition. It was suppose to be McCarthy but when that fell through, NO ONE else was viable beyond Ryan. I'm sure they'd find someone if Ryan stepped down, but there are so many factions in the GOP right now that I can't imagine the whole conference voting monolithically.
I like to pronounce it "lah-tinks"
Iraq wouldn't have happened under Gore. The push for Iraq came from within the administration; it wasn't born out of real intel, it was confirmation bias cherrypicking fake intel. There would've been completely different people in a Gore administration who wouldn't even have Iraq in mind for anything.
(boop)
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
edit: Iraq war was Rumsfeld and Cheney's goals before even getting in the White House. They orchestrated that whole thing.
I hope so.
BTW I just realized that if Hillary wins, we might have Bill regularly on Conan O'Brien again, unless the guy who used to do his voice is dead or something.
"Woooaaah!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8j0-4vE7Mg
I hope so.
BTW I just realized that if Hillary wins, we might have Bill regularly on Conan O'Brien again, unless the guy who used to do his voice is dead or something.
"Woooaaah!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8j0-4vE7Mg
whyamihere
Banned
Blue wave a-comin' in Nevada
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794754491836862467
Washoe = Reno
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794754491836862467
Washoe = Reno
StopMakingSense
Member
It was just Robert Smigel.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
She's been up in a slew of polls there lately. I think she's probably running ahead of her polls because of undercounted Latinos, and I think she'll win the state. Sadly, not by enough to beat McCain, but by enough to scare him a bit.
I'm also fully on board the "Rubio is going to lose" train at this point, and hell, I'm on the "we have an outside shot at winning the House" train, too. Not that anyone cares, but still.
Basileus777
Member
Yeah, Trump is not winning Florida.
I hope to shit that the majority of these early voters are voting democrat and not just fired up deplorables "taking are (sic) country back."
I want to be optimistic. God in heaven I want to be optimistic. But there's been so much unmitigated fuckery this election cycle. I'm worried the conventional wisdom of the past no longer applies.
I want to be optimistic. God in heaven I want to be optimistic. But there's been so much unmitigated fuckery this election cycle. I'm worried the conventional wisdom of the past no longer applies.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Does everyone here know why this happened and why it's relative to this exact conversation?
Bad polling. They were using telephones ... and undersampling poor people, who didn't have them yet.
HHHHMMMMMHHMMMMMM
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
No longer feeling the need to take heroin after these early voting numbers.
Thank you for saving me from drug addiction, Hispanic Americans.
Thank you for saving me from drug addiction, Hispanic Americans.
whyamihere
Banned
Lock Him Up! Lock Him Up! Lock Him Up!
Xamtheking
Member
All about them clicks fam
Harry Enten is the only one I've really been listening too, he seems to be the most rational of the bunch.
Trump winning the primary broke Nate (despite the fact that his model was right and had Trump winning the whole time).
They're supposed to be feeding you drugs, not the other way around.
Well, let's hope Nate Silver is a shitty person, then.
whyamihere
Banned
Oooh.
Ahhh.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh.
Ahhh.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Most of my mom's family from Cuba doesn't even refer to themselves as Hispanic/Latinx
I remember the first time my uncle found out I register on EEOC surveys as Hispanic, he thought I was trying to claim Affirmative Action, and freaked out on my mom, claiming she was raising a Mexican wanna-be.
Basileus777
Member
He's a libertarian.
Well hubris is a human trait. Doesn't have to mean shitty.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Fuck yes.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Somebody's doing the injecting!
There was a bunch of extra traffic on the LIE on the way home from work today, and it ended up being caused by a group of Trumpster divers holding a sign-carrying rally on an overpass.
I was fantasizing about hunting them down on Wednesday and licking the bitter tears off their faces Cartman-style.
I was fantasizing about hunting them down on Wednesday and licking the bitter tears off their faces Cartman-style.
User 463088
Banned
God, I can't believe I'm going to say what I'm about to say....
Nate's model isn't wrong in NV in the sense that he's doing anything wrong. The polls, like, show it super close there because the polls are bad. Now, I also think in an election that looks like a bit of a realignment, his model has issues....but like, NV polling isn't great!
Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago
I hear Jesse Law, who is in charge of poll-watching for the NV GOP, has arrived at the Mexican market. Right on time.
Nate's model isn't wrong in NV in the sense that he's doing anything wrong. The polls, like, show it super close there because the polls are bad. Now, I also think in an election that looks like a bit of a realignment, his model has issues....but like, NV polling isn't great!
Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago
I hear Jesse Law, who is in charge of poll-watching for the NV GOP, has arrived at the Mexican market. Right on time.
The GOP are SHOOK!
Manmademan
Member
Nothing stops this train
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