Support NeoGAF

[Suikoguy]

Univision's on it.

http://www.univision.com/univision-...derestimate-the-democratic-partys-latino-vote



Pollsters gonna get shit on come Wednesday!

Plus, Wed will tell us if GOTV efforts are factored in polling.

 

[Doc Holliday]

The Latino vote is why Bush won in 04 and why the gop elites were against Trump. Latinos, especially the older crowd are conservative by nature. Trump antagonizing us was the biggest mistake he made but it was the only way he could win the primary.

 

[superdeluxe]

Hispanics stepping up in Nevada. Nice

 

[Kangi]

@RalstonReports 2m2 minutes ago

Uh, oh: Dems won Washoe tonight for first time in four days, end up with 1,000-vote lead overall:

Dem - 6,058
GOP - 5,820
TOTAL - 16,373

Smells like a tossup, guys

 

[Paches]

I see Nate Silver did put Nevada back in the Clinton column, just fyi

He is manipulating the map from behind the scenes to secretly put states back in to the blue so his final prediction is all correct....

 

[Brinbe]

Uh, oh: Dems won Washoe tonight for first time in four days, end up with 1,000-vote lead overall:

Dem - 6,058
GOP - 5,820
TOTAL - 16,373

edit: beaten

WRAP THAT SHIT UP, B.

 

[TheFatOne]

Guys, I think it's happening, I think we're getting that Hispanic wave (and god help us, it votes Marco Rubio out of office). God bless Nevada and Florida for providing so much hope. I am not confident it'll be enough to flip Texas, but I think Trump wins it by 3-5%.

This is based on nothing but my gut feeling but Texas is going to be a 1-2 point victory and too close to call on Tuesday.

 

[eBay Huckster]

about that...



and...



http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

That article was written in august. As of the end of september, the increase in the voter rolls were closer to 700K.



http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeac...k-of-registration-swells-florida-voter-rolls/

I've even seen numbers as high as 900K though october.

For "unlikely white voters" to turn out, they have to be registered first- and the registration advantage has been WILDLY lopsided.

Also, Godcohn just tweeted about this

Important to remember as irregular voters start turning out: missing and newly registered voters lean Dem

 

[Zukkoyaki]

All of this incredible news about Latinos in Nevada, Texas and Florida has me legit curious about Arizona... I have been thinking it was a long shot this whole time but now I'm not so sure.

 

[Loudninja]

That ground game.

I am so damn pumped fuck!

 

[Anoregon]

 

[Stinkles]

Crazy thing is that demographics are changing faster than polling methods.

 

[gutter_trash]

The Latino vote is why Bush won in 04 and why the gop elites were against Trump. Latinos, especially the older crowd are conservative by nature. Trump antagonizing us was the biggest mistake he made but it was the only way he could win the primary.

this proves the dumbassery of the Republican party,

they had the choice between Jeb! and Marco but went with Trump

Trump sent the party backwards for generations erasing W's numbers

 

[BigJonsson]

What time do the first polls close Tuesday? 8 eastern?

 

[jbug617]

More Nevada news

@RalstonReports:

Current voter count in Clark with at least an hour left:

55K

Record keeps getting higher.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

This is based on nothing but my gut feeling but Texas is going to be a 1-2 point victory and too close to call on Tuesday.

Dood, not even I'm that optimistic. But if your gut is right, GOP leaders will be shitting bricks trying to figure out if they should be more frightened of an ascendant Latinx minority, or their bat-shit crazy Nazi base.

 

[Loudninja]

Smells like a tossup, guys

I am guessing that is a republican area?

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

So around what time (and timezone) Tuesday night are the closer states expected to start wrapping up?

 

[Stinkles]

"I say! What do you call the fastest growing demographic in America?"

"rapists!?"

"no Dolan. No."

 

[User1608]

Hispanics. Siiiii

 

[UraMallas]

I see Nate Silver did put Nevada back in the Clinton column, just fyi

Thanks for the update. I've decided to not give 538 anymore clicks this cycle. Unbookmarked and unfollowed on Twitter.

Guys, I think it's happening, I think we're getting that Hispanic wave (and god help us, it votes Marco Rubio out of office). God bless Nevada and Florida for providing so much hope. I am not confident it'll be enough to flip Texas, but I think Trump wins it by 3-5%.

Florida fucking owes us one.

 

[Manmademan]

Dood, not even I'm that optimistic. But if your gut is right, GOP leaders will be shitting bricks trying to figure out if they should be more frightened of an ascendant Latinx minority, or their bat-shit crazy Nazi base.

I posted an article yesterday(?), perhaps the day before.

Democrats had actually outvoted Republicans in Texas early voting.

no clue if that held up through the end of early voting today, but if it did- yeah a 1 or 2 point margin is a possibility.

it's NEVER been that close. republicans usually win that one easily.

 

[Fragamemnon]

One thing to watch about NC/NV/FL is the total share of the early vote vs. the total vote. Republicans have been screeching "we'll make it up on election day!!!" but they're going to just flat out run out of votes.

 

[Xamtheking]

"I say! What do you call the fastest growing demographic in America?"

"rapists!?"

"no Dolan. No."

The correct answer is 400lb people who cyber

 

[Carpe Carnim]

All of this incredible news about Latinos in Nevada, Texas and Florida has me legit curious about Arizona... I have been thinking it was a long shot this whole time but now I'm not so sure.

3 hour waits in certain precincts of Tuscon today.

Clinton ain't spending time and money there to fuck with Trump's head. She wants to bury the GOP wherever she can

 

[electricpirate]

Thanks for the update. I've decided to not give 538 anymore clicks this cycle. Unbookmarked and unfollowed on Twitter.

ANOTHER Bad thing about his model.

Just label a state within 10% a tossup. Flipping from red to blue based on .2% is dumb AF.

 

[Basileus777]

The Latino vote is why Bush won in 04 and why the gop elites were against Trump. Latinos, especially the older crowd are conservative by nature. Trump antagonizing us was the biggest mistake he made but it was the only way he could win the primary.

It'll be kind of funny if latino turnout surges and daggers Trump after the recent pushback against the 2012 narrative by data analysts about how exit polls exaggerated the impact of the the latino vote.

 

[Bowdz]

I really hope either Ryan or whoever becomes Speaker grows a pair and at least puts the inevitable immigration reform 2.0 up for a vote in the House. It would have passed in 2013 if it was put to a vote by Boehner and I'd imagine the votes are more or less still there now. If the Dems take the Senate, I think the big three pieces of legislation we might see are immigration reform, criminal justice reform, and an infrastructure bill.

 

[Manmademan]

Thanks for the update. I've decided to not give 538 anymore clicks this cycle. Unbookmarked and unfollowed on Twitter.



Florida fucking owes us one.

If Florida hadn't gone bush in 00, we never would have gotten Obama in 08, or Trump destroying the republican party in '16.

Florida is the real hero we never knew we needed.

 

[Basileus777]

I really hope either Ryan or whoever becomes Speaker grows a pair and at least puts the inevitable immigration reform 2.0 up for a vote in the House. It would have passed in 2013 if it was put to a vote by Boehner and I'd imagine the votes are more or less still there now. If the Dems take the Senate, I think the big three pieces of legislation we might see are immigration reform, criminal justice reform, and an infrastructure bill.

Any Speaker will be living in fear of the Freedom Caucus. I don't see how it happens.

If Florida hadn't gone bush in 00, we never would have gotten Obama in 08, or Trump destroying the republican party in '16.

Florida is the real hero we never knew we needed.

Hell no, Bush fucked the whole world for decades with his wars. Nothing is worth that.

 

[The Lamonster]

Save our country mi amigos!!

.

 

[Loudninja]

Onion news

Trump Raises Concern Over Members Of Urban Communities Voting More Than Zero Times

ATKINSON, NH—Warning supporters that the troubling practice could affect the outcome of the election, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump expressed strong concern Friday that members of urban communities were voting more than zero times, sources reported. “I’ve heard stories that some of these people in the inner cities are trying to steal the election by casting over zero ballots—we can’t let this happen, folks,” said Trump, who claimed that hundreds of urban voting precincts across the country often have turnout numbers that are far higher than zero percent of eligible voters. “Very trustworthy sources have told me that in many of these urban neighborhoods, people are voting in excess of zero times by mailing in a ballot under their own name or even just by walking right up to a polling place and voting without a problem—and the poll workers there will just go along with it. It’s a terrible thing that’s happening in those places, and it needs to be stopped.” Trump added that concerned supporters should form groups, head to urban precincts, and “do what needs to be done” to take care of the problem

http://www.theonion.com/article/trump-raises-concern-over-members-urban-communitie-54593

 

[GutsOfThor]

Dood, not even I'm that optimistic. But if your gut is right, GOP leaders will be shitting bricks trying to figure out if they should be more frightened of an ascendant Latinx minority, or their bat-shit crazy Nazi base.

She won't win Texas but I would absolutely LOVE it if when the polls close that Texas is too close to call.

 

[Brinbe]

LMAO

 

[Manmademan]

Dood, not even I'm that optimistic. But if your gut is right, GOP leaders will be shitting bricks trying to figure out if they should be more frightened of an ascendant Latinx minority, or their bat-shit crazy Nazi base.

when did this become a thing

LMAO

Nevada is the poster child for "why models should be incorporating early voting in with polls." This is flat out embarrassing.

 

[BigJonsson]

If Florida hadn't gone bush in 00, we never would have gotten Obama in 08, or Trump destroying the republican party in '16.

Florida is the real hero we never knew we needed.

What?

Hindsight is 20/20 but how many people would not be dead from war if Gore had won?

 

[Teggy]

LOL

https://www.gofundme.com/2hdt5bxs


Also, I watched the first 5 episodes of Black Mirror. That show is for real! I don't know what this 3 episodes per season is about. That's like "how British can we be?"

 

[Debirudog]

Silver should stop his career from being a joke that it already is.

 

[tuxfool]

LMAO

Is this now?

 

[UraMallas]

If Florida hadn't gone bush in 00, we never would have gotten Obama in 08, or Trump destroying the republican party in '16.

Florida is the real hero we never knew we needed.

Florida on the 11th level bath salts.

 

[Manmademan]

What?

Hindsight is 20/20 but how many people would not be dead from war if Gore had won?

who was that poster that swore Gore would have gotten us into war anyway

 

[Brinbe]

Is this now?

Yep

 

[johnsmith]

LMAO

 

[CreepingFear]

LOL

https://www.gofundme.com/2hdt5bxs


Also, I watched the first 5 episodes of Black Mirror. That show is for real! I don't know what this 3 episodes per season is about. That's like "how British can we be?"

I watched the Season 2 robot episode because of Gaf's famous warm genital sex doll thread. Not bad. Will watch rest of series sometime.

 

[Basileus777]

Nevada is the poster child for "why models should be incorporating early voting in with polls." This is flat out embarrassing.

I can understand models not figuring out the early vote issue yet. The punditry and writing ignoring it is far less forgivable. 538 was supposed to be more than just Nate's model, but it's really not outside of a handful of Enten articles.

 

[Teggy]

I'll admit it, I want Silver to get destroyed this year. I hope his final map has a ton of states wrong. (With Hillary winning of course)

 

[eBay Huckster]

who was that poster that swore Gore would have gotten us into war anyway

Crab, who is pretty good at UK politics but not very good at US politics

 

[whyamihere]

SIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

@CatherineForNV
Let's do this, Nevada!

 

[BigJonsson]

who was that poster that swore Gore would have gotten us into war anyway

If 9/11 or similar still happened then war in Afghanistan would probably have happened, doubt the Iraq mess would have happened but who knows

Gore probably would have done things to help all sorts of scientists, not ban or not fund what they were working on

 

[studyguy]

Don't worry fam we got this.
Just a couple thousand bad hombres saving this country.