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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
CwdpsxpXcAEYTx5.jpg


Fuck yes.
Click to expand...

I had to make it my avatar.
 
Velcro Fly

Velcro Fly

Member
It isn't enough just to win, at least for me. I want her to run it up. I want everything she can get. I want there to be no doubt.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
adam387 said:
God, I can't believe I'm going to say what I'm about to say....

Nate's model isn't wrong in NV in the sense that he's doing anything wrong. The polls, like, show it super close there because the polls are bad. Now, I also think in an election that looks like a bit of a realignment, his model has issues....but like, NV polling isn't great!
Click to expand...

Right, and even though the percentages the model is giving for NV are not looking right, the solution is not to just change your model until you get numbers more to your liking.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
So what does a Trump map look like without Nevada? Every map I can come up with is a Dick Morris map.
adam387 said:
God, I can't believe I'm going to say what I'm about to say....

Nate's model isn't wrong in NV in the sense that he's doing anything wrong. The polls, like, show it super close there because the polls are bad. Now, I also think in an election that looks like a bit of a realignment, his model has issues....but like, NV polling isn't great!
Click to expand...
Garbage in garbage out. Weed out the shit polls mayne. I don't know why he insists on keeping google consumers and crapola polls that don't have Hispanic breakout.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
adam387 said:
God, I can't believe I'm going to say what I'm about to say....

Nate's model isn't wrong in NV in the sense that he's doing anything wrong. The polls, like, show it super close there because the polls are bad. Now, I also think in an election that looks like a bit of a realignment, his model has issues....but like, NV polling isn't great!
Click to expand...

The model isn't dictating his site's articles or his own tweets. A good analyst would be capable of supplementing his model with quality writing to paint a complete picture that wasn't dominated by things like "the polls could be wrong and Trump might win." The model is the least of 538's issues.

RustyNails said:
So what does a Trump map look like without Nevada? Every map I can come up with is a Dick Morris map.
Click to expand...
You've answered your own question.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Basileus777 said:
The model isn't dictating his site's articles or his own tweets. A good analyst would be capable of supplementing his model with quality writing to paint a complete picture that wasn't dominated by things like "the polls could be wrong and Trump might win." The model is the least of 538's issues.
Click to expand...

This is correct. My argument against Nate is, and has always been, he is shitty and being a pundit. He is an asshole on Twitter, and he has a holier than thou attitude. I think his model isn't great, especially with some of the shit they include, but that has nothing to do with his numbers showing me what I want to see.

Dude is an ass.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
This guy is fucking amazing.

You have to read every tweet.

https://twitter.com/d_seaman

Option 1: DC elites *do* spend all day labouring over which “sauce” to go with

Option 2: Code for pedo ORGY (confirmed)
Click to expand...

CweSljVVQAAzuAd.jpg


Since when do wealthy D.C. men & women settle up for “pasta”?

Codename for VERY underage white females, Source 2 ;(
Click to expand...

CweRIfPVQAAFUx4.jpg


“pizza party” is code for underage attractive girls, Source 1 confirms. :(

cc @PreetBharara @NewYorkFBI @FBI @INTERPOL_HQ
Click to expand...

CweQGZAUcAI7c9j.jpg


Every single tweet is a masterpiece.

This is actually a common conspiracy in Gater/Trump Twitter. That the Hillary campaign is running a sex ring.

This is the greatest thing I've ever read.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
So here's the seats that I think will flip, as well as seats we'd need to flip for a majority

CA-10 - Michael Eggman (D) vs. Jeff Denham (R-inc)
CA-25 - Bryan Caforio (D) vs. Steve Knight (R-inc)
CA-49 - Doug Applegate (D) vs. Darrell Issa (R-inc)
CO-6 - Morgan Carroll (D) vs. Mike Coffman (R-inc)
FL-7 - Stephanie Murphy (D) vs. John Mica (R-inc)
FL-10 - Val Demings (D) vs. Thuy Lowe (R)
FL-13 - Charlie Crist (D) vs. David Jolly (R-inc)
FL-26 - Joe Garcia (D) vs. Carlos Curbelo (R-inc)
IA-1 - Monica Vernon (D) vs. Rod Blum (R)
IL-10 - Brad Schneider (D) vs. Bob Dold! (R-inc)
ME-2 - Emily Cain (D) vs. Bruce Poliquin (R-inc)
MI-1 - Lon Johnson (D) vs. Jack Bergman (R)
MN-2 - Angie Craig (D) vs. Jason Lewis (R)
NH-1 - Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Frank Guinta (R)
NJ-5 - Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Scott Garrett (R-inc)
NV-3 - Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Danny Tarkanian (R)
NV-4 - Ruben Kihuen (D) vs. Cresent Hardy (R-inc)
NY-19 - Zephyr Teachout (D) vs. John Faso (R)
NY-22 - Kim Myers (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)
TX-23 - Pete Gallego (D) vs. Will Hurd (R-inc)
VA-4 - Donald McEachin (D) vs. Mike Wade (R)
VA-10 - LuAnn Bennett vs. Barbara Comstock (R-inc)

We lose

FL-2 - Neal Dunn (R) vs. Walter Dartland (D)

We need for a majority

AZ-2 - Matt Heinz (D) vs. Martha McSally (R-inc)
CA-21 - Emilio Huerta (D) vs. David Valadao (R-inc)
CO-3 - Gail Schwartz (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R-inc)
IN-9 - Shelli Yoder (D) vs. Trey Hollingsworth (R-inc)
MI-7 - Gretchen Driskell (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R-inc)
MI-8 - Suzanna Shkreli (D) vs. Mike Bishop (R-inc)
MN-3 - Terri Bonoff (D) vs. Erik Paulsen (R-inc)
PA-16 - Steve Santarsiero (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
UT-4 - Doug Owens (D) vs. Mia Love (R-inc)
VA-5 - Jane Dittmar (D) vs. Tom Garrett (R)
Click to expand...

Basically I'm kind of just hoping that there's a total downballot wipeout in VA, MI, CO and CA. If I'm being realistic I don't think we flip those seats but what's the fun in that.

Realistic projection, hopeful projection puts us right at 218, more realistic D+21.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Aaron Strife said:
So here's the seats that I think will flip (italicized are seats that I don't think will, but would have to for a House majority)



Basically I'm kind of just hoping that there's a total downballot wipeout in VA, MI, CO and CA. If I'm being realistic I don't think we flip those seats but what's the fun in that.

Realistic projection, hopeful projection puts us right at 218, more realistic D+21.
Click to expand...

Seeing Issa go down in flames would be amazing. Karmic justice if there ever was some.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
So apparently Sam Wang is pronounced Sam Wong. I've been pronouncing it wrong all these years. D:

But listening to him talk is making me Diablos a bit less.
 
i_am_ben

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
Aaron Strife said:
So here's the seats that I think will flip (italicized are seats that I don't think will, but would have to for a House majority)



Basically I'm kind of just hoping that there's a total downballot wipeout in VA, MI, CO and CA. If I'm being realistic I don't think we flip those seats but what's the fun in that.

Realistic projection, hopeful projection puts us right at 218, more realistic D+21.
Click to expand...

the italics are really hard to see. Maybe use asterics or something
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
So here's the seats that I think will flip (italicized are seats that I don't think will, but would have to for a House majority)



Basically I'm kind of just hoping that there's a total downballot wipeout in VA, MI, CO and CA. If I'm being realistic I don't think we flip those seats but what's the fun in that.

Realistic projection, hopeful projection puts us right at 218, more realistic D+21.
Click to expand...

I didn't realize Darrell Issa was in trouble. Democrats might not win the house, but kicking his ass on the street would be a nice consolation prize.
 
T

Tall4Life

Member
border said:
Is there any good news out of Ohio, or is it still likely to go to Trump?
Click to expand...
Franklin and Cuyahoga counties (strong Democrats) are up in early voting I believe. And the initiative this weekend with the Jay Z/Bey concert and LeBron's thing on Sunday might encourage more Democrats to vote.
 
J

JHoNNy1OoO

Member
Shao Kahn on the Lawn said:
We need an amendment on the ballots that requires the public flogging of anyone who seriously references political yard signs as an indication of anything.
Click to expand...

Seriously. I don't have a sign for Hillary outside of my home and neither do any of my friends. But we have phone banked like crazy for her. We'll talk to people about her if the issue pops up but apart from that we keep our political preference to ourselves. Hell when everyone and their mother had an Obama sign in my neighborhood in 2008 I still didn't put one out and I was 100% for him after the Primary. People are free to do whatever they like on their property but its just not my thing.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Today's events

November 5, 2016 Pembroke Pines, Florida Get Out the Vote Hillary Clinton
November 5, 2016 Fort Myers, Florida Get Out the Vote Tim Kaine
November 5, 2016 Sarasota, Florida Get Out the Vote Tim Kaine
November 5, 2016 Bristol, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Vice President Joe Biden
November 5, 2016 West Mifflin, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Vice President Joe Biden
November 5, 2016 Ames, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 5, 2016 Colorado Springs, Colorado Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 5, 2016 Jacksonville, North Carolina Stronger Together Bus Tour Bill Clinton
November 5, 2016 Gainesville, North Carolina Stronger Together Bus Tour Bill Clinton
November 5, 2016 Elizabeth City, North Carolina Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 5, 2016 Charlotte, North Carolina Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 5, 2016 Asheville, North Carolina Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 5, 2016 St. Petersburg, Florida Get Out The Vote Performance Jon Bon Jovi
November 5, 2016 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Get Out The Vote Performance Katy Perry
November 5, 2016 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Get Out The Vote Performance Stevie Wonder
Click to expand...

Trump
TAMPA, FL
WILMINGTON, NC
RENO, NV
DENVER, CO

Pence
HOLLAND, MI
FAIRFAX, VA
Click to expand...

LITERALLY he is wasting half of his day tomorrow, and Pence is wasting the entire thing.
 
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