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[witness]

Wat

Yes, Nate, it is totally crazy.

Oh Jesus Christ, he's not going to win PA and it won't take long to get called. If John Fucking Kerry won PA then any Democrat should. Nate had really jumped the shark all in the name of clicks.

 

[Diablos]

God dammit Florida.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

In a thread yesterday I posted this map

As an example of how it's going to be very hard for a "normal" Republican to hit 270 in 2020, if one runs.

This should also calm people's nerves about Trump pulling some kind of miracle win.

 

[kadotsu]

That map doesn't take the lunatic, that won't vote for HRC, in the electoral college into account .

 

[starmud]

It's still mentally uncomfortable to think NC is more decidedly for a democrat than Florida lol

 

[thebloo]

This should also calm people's nerves about Trump pulling some kind of miracle win.

So, if Bernie runs independent just in Vermont, the GoP wins?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

It's still mentally uncomfortable to think NC is more decidedly for a democrat than Florida lol

Has a lot to do with those horrific discrimination bills the local GOP passed. Sped up it's path toward being a relatively blue state.

 

[nature boy]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp 2m2 minutes ago
CBS/YouGov

Penn: HRC 48, DJT 40
NC: HRC 48, DJT 45
Colo: HRC 42, DJT 39
Ariz.: HRC 42, DJT 44

(Colo seems to be the newsiest number here)

.

.

 

[skullmuffins]

I'm rarely seeing any Trump or Hillary signs outside at all. Pretty interesting considering I could see Romney/Obama and McCain/Obama signs everywhere I looked. Anyone else experienced this?

I live right by an early voting location in FL, and I remember there being a lot of signs for the Presidential race posted outside it in '08 and '12 - I even shamelessly stole one of the Obama signs after the election in '08 to keep as a souvenir. This year - hardly any. First couple days of early voting, there were tons of signs posted nearby for the various local races, but maybe 1 for Trump and none for Hillary (and none for Aleppo, either). Jill Stein had more signs than all the other presidential candidates combined. I had to stop and do a double-take.

By the local yard sign indicator, Stein is winning Florida.

 

[Amir0x]

We know Clinton is gonna win.

The thing to fear is whether all this will make us lose the Senate. If it does, the first fucking thing Clinton needs to do is destroy Comey's life.

Number one, on day one. The first fucking conversation: how many ways can we ruin Comey?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

.

.

Good numbers! Funny thing, that CO number is actually an improvement from YouGov's last poll of that state.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

You can thank Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado for the "safe" Dem map

 

[NeoXChaos]

FL won't even matter if the state is close.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why does it even matter? If she wins NV + NC + VA and loses FL + PA + OH + everything else, she still wins.

If she loses PA, you have to suspect she has trouble in something like WI or MI. Nate's just being a doofus.

 

[Plinko]

I really think Clinton needs to do more TV. Her likeability ratings got better after each debate, and I think that's because people actually get to see who she really is as opposed to what right-wing nuts scream on a daily basis on social media.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

FL won't even matter if the state is close.

What about that nutty member of the Electoral College from Washington state who said they won a cast a vote for HRC

 

[nature boy]

CBS/YouGov Senate races

Senator John McCain of Arizona, a Republican incumbent and former presidential nominee, is leading Rep. Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by just 5 points, 43% to 38%, with 11% undecided and 8% voting for “someone else”. Notably, almost all of these “someone else” voters are Donald Trump supporters, who may be frustrated with McCain since he withdrew his endorsement of Trump following the “Access Hollywood” tape revelations.

In Colorado, the incumbent is a Democrat, Senator Michael Bennet. Sen. Bennet also holds a five point lead over his challenger, Republican Darryl Glenn. This may reflect the more conventional partisan divisions in the state: Bennet takes 89% of Clinton supporters, Glenn 83% of Trump supporters. Overall, 10% remain undecided.

Nevertheless, the two “competitive” races live up to the name.

North Carolina’s race, between Sen. Richard Burr, the Republican incumbent, and Deborah Ross, the Democratic challenger, is neck-and-neck at 44% to 44%. Notably, among those who are undecided in the Senate race, Clinton leads by 48% to 27%. However, Ross has actually gained less ground than her opponent since September, when she numerically led Burr 41% to 40%.

In Pennsylvania, the Democrat has actually made up ground. Kathy McGinty now leads incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey by a slim, three-point margin, 44% to 41%. In early October, the race was tied 42% to 42%. McGinty has benefited from Democratic voters coming off the sidelines, with 80% now backing her, up from 75%, as well as an increased lead among women voters. Yet undecided voters in Pennsylvania’s Senate race are not obviously Democratic-leaning: they split 41% for Clinton and 40% for Trump when asked their presidential vote intentions.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/

 

[Y2Kev]

I really think Clinton needs to do more TV. Her likeability ratings got better after each debate, and I think that's because people actually get to see who she really is as opposed to what right-wing nuts scream on a daily basis on social media.

I do agree on that. But I felt she should have done a speech a week starting in September. Instead she kept it low key. I guess her advisors told her people just hate her.

 

[lyrick]

ON MTP!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I really think Clinton needs to do more TV. Her likeability ratings got better after each debate, and I think that's because people actually get to see who she really is as opposed to what right-wing nuts scream on a daily basis on social media.

She'll get a nice chance to be on TV a lot in a few months.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

What about that nutty member of the Electoral College from Washington state who said they won a cast a vote for HRC

He's probably not an elector in 2020, to be honest.

 

[whyamihere]

I know those NBC polls were pre-Comey, but is there any Friday or Saturday in those YouGov polls?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I know those NBC polls were pre-Comey, but is there any Friday or Saturday in those YouGov polls?

10/26 - 10/28, so Friday.

Edit: OH there's actually very specific information in the poll about that:

One question that looms over this data is Friday’s revelation that the FBI would be reviewing new emails that may be pertinent to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private email use as Secretary of State. While the details are still emerging, the news resurfaced a controversy that has been damaging for Clinton in the past. In light of this, over Friday evening and Saturday morning YouGov recontacted 4500 likely voters from 13 competitive states who had previously been surveyed in mid-October, when 46% backed Clinton and 40% backed Trump.

Roughly four in five (79%) of these voters had heard something about the controversy. So far, the impact of the news appears to be minimal: only 1% of those who said they intended to vote for Clinton two weeks ago now say the controversy has made them “less likely” to vote for Clinton. Another 6% say it “depends what we learn”. Meanwhile most of these voters say the news won’t affect their vote at all, and, importantly, 23% of voters overall – including 27% of those who said two weeks ago they would vote for Clinton – have already voted.

13% of Clinton voters are "more likely" to vote for her now because of it, as well.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/

 

[whyamihere]

10/26 - 10/28, so Friday.

I'll take it.

 

[nature boy]

I know those NBC polls were pre-Comey, but is there any Friday or Saturday in those YouGov polls?

They did a separate poll on the FBI issue:

 

[thelooseteeth]

Man this race is starting to make me physically ill. No matter the pertinence of the latest Clinton scandal, it hasn't done much to help public perception of her; meanwhile Trump seems relatively untouched despite the release of further allegations. I'm getting scared, GAF. Somebody comfort me.

 

[lyrick]

They did a separate poll on the FBI issue:

That's a very comforting poll. Especially the Already voted percentage.

Except for that 17% that already voted that were unsure or had other intentions with the vote they already made.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

They did a separate poll on the FBI issue:

Looks like Clinton won't be losing much if any support from people already in her camp. And any "undecided" at this point either isn't voting or was leaning one way or another anyway.

 

[Spiritreaver]

They did a separate poll on the FBI issue:

Did we rig this poll? I bet all of us are the 13% more likely to vote Clinton.

 

[whyamihere]

They did a separate poll on the FBI issue:

I'm going to hug this until Election Day.

 

[Incognito]

I'm rarely seeing any Trump or Hillary signs outside at all. Pretty interesting considering I could see Romney/Obama and McCain/Obama signs everywhere I looked. Anyone else experienced this?

signs are what campaigns give out when they have no ground game. back on obama 08 and 12 people used to come in all the time to various field offices asking for signs and we'd tell them that we're better off having them making calls, knocking on doors, inputting data, etc than putting up some sign.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

That's a very comforting poll. Especially the Already voted percentage.

Except for that 17% that already voted that were unsure or had other intentions with the vote they already made.

God that poll gives me some relief.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Man this race is starting to make me physically ill. No matter the pertinence of the latest Clinton scandal, it hasn't done much to help public perception of her; meanwhile Trump seems relatively untouched despite the release of further allegations. I'm getting scared, GAF. Somebody comfort me.

Read the post above that shows that this is having no effect at all?

Like I said yesterday, nobody who still cares about the email scandal was going to vote for Clinton in the first place. Which makes Comey's stunt here even dumber.

 

[Y2Kev]

That Colorado poll is interesting, and also that Bennett is only up 5. Maybe undersampling Latinos?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

That's a very comforting poll. Especially the Already voted percentage.

Except for that 17% that already voted that were unsure or had other intentions with the vote they already made.

That doesn't mean much, unless I'm missing something. Just that 17% of the voters who were undecided/other in their last poll have already voted. Could have broken either way or third-party.

 

[whyamihere]

That Colorado poll is interesting, and also that Bennett is only up 5. Maybe undersampling Latinos?

If it shows Bennet is only up 5, they probably got a bad sample.

 

[Y2Kev]

If it shows Bennet is only up 5, they probably got a bad sample.

In Colorado, the incumbent is a Democrat, Senator Michael Bennet. Sen. Bennet also holds a five point lead over his challenger, Republican Darryl Glenn. This may reflect the more conventional partisan divisions in the state: Bennet takes 89% of Clinton supporters, Glenn 83% of Trump supporters. Overall, 10% remain undecided.

I just don't believe.
edit: Why would they even ask Trump leaners if they were more likely to vote for Clinton? LOL

 

[metalslimer]

Seems things should be fine assuming Clinton isn't hauled away in handcuffs. Does the news media even care about the farenthold story considering they literally spent a day whining about the Clinton Foundation over a nothing email?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

That Colorado poll is interesting, and also that Bennett is only up 5. Maybe undersampling Latinos?

YouGov is online and doesn't conduct polls in Spanish (according to Adam)

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

.

my math says H is up by ~0.3%?

 

[whyamihere]

Seems like Florida will be close again while North Carolina won't be.

 

[Boke1879]

Next week is going to be crazy

 

[thelooseteeth]

Read the post above that shows that this is having no effect at all?

Like I said yesterday, nobody who still cares about the email scandal was going to vote for Clinton in the first place. Which makes Comey's stunt here even dumber.

Well, I guess that makes me feel slightly better. It's just every news outlet on my feed is blowing this thing up. I think I'll just shut my eyes to the news until the 9th.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Seems things should be fine assuming Clinton isn't hauled away in handcuffs. Does the news media even care about the farenthold story considering they literally spent a day whining about the Clinton Foundation over a nothing email?

Even on GAF, the thread for the Farenthold article barely went past a page.

 

[TumblingHippo]

Plz stop

 

[TyrantII]

Has a lot to do with those horrific discrimination bills the local GOP passed. Sped up it's path toward being a relatively blue state.

Nah. It has more to do with having a large banking sector. Trump is bad for bussiness. Clinton can be worked with

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Plz stop

Nah, please do it again. Honestly, just run him for the rest of time.

 

[TumblingHippo]

Nah, please do it again. Honestly, just run him for the rest of time.

I dunno if I can take it. Like any turd I hope this idea doesn't float around for long.

 

[Amir0x]

Heh at am joy guest.

"People across the country are asking me: should i be worried? And i say unequivocally 'Yes! But it is nothing a good pair of safety glasses wont fix, because there will be millions of pieces of shattered raining glass from the ceiling Clinton smashed!'

So corny lol

 

[thebloo]

Plz stop

On what money? People will stop giving a shit once he loses and he's barely receiving donations right now.