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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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M

Maledict

Member
brianmcdoogle said:
Betting markets are trash and Silver is still using them to justify why his crap model is an outlier to everyone else. Just embarrassing.
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The one thing we should take from Brexit is that the betting markets are garbage. Whilst the polling wasn't really off, the betting markets were by a huge amount.
 
R

royalan

Member
Boke1879 said:
People like Todd just don't understand. Then after a certain point you'll be asking to make everyone's emails public domain.
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Exactly.

Again, Kurt Eichenwald this morning made a great point: it's not just on the Hillary Clinton here. If these Huma emails were really that important to the investigation, why didn't they seize Huma's computer in the actual email investigation.

That's why Comey actions here reek of partisan bullshit. If the emails on Huma's laptop are to hillaryclinton.com or hrc.gov then FBI already has access to them. These emails have likely already been reviewed.

Shit, I guess we have to seize every device that has ever touched a Clinton email, by Comey's logic here.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I hate you all.

Nevada: Still fucked for GOP! (Via Ralston)

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Democrats won Clark by 4,000 votes, firewall now at 44,000. Washoe was essentially a draw, Dems by 19 votes. They still lead there by about 2,500.

Statewide, the Dems increased their lead by about 3,000 votes, but a few rural counties have not yet been posted (the rural lead for the GOP is now more than 15,000). Statewide, the Dems lead is now about 31,000 votes.

The statewide Dem lead is now at 7 points, or 1 point above registration. That's where the 89,000-voter registration edge looks so critical. The Dem lead in Clark is 47-32, which is slightly less than 2012, when it was 49-33. The raw vote lead in Washoe is twice what it was at this time in 2012.

In 2012, on the first day of the second week, the Democrats did a little better, winning Clark by 5,000 and Washoe by 120.

So still a lot like 2012, with GOP showing slight improvement.
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M

Makai

Member
Thursday
E3nuJas.jpg
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Sunday
OBOVRkv.png
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I

Iolo

Member
The emails investigation will never be closed because, somewhere out there, emails could surface years from now. Therefore Comey must be kept on indefinitely so he can finish the investigation.
 
S

Slayven

Member
brianmcdoogle said:
Betting markets are trash and Silver is still using them to justify why his crap model is an outlier to everyone else. Just embarrassing.
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Other then being looked as interesting and a novelity, why would you use them in calculating anything?

You have people actually out there trying to game them.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
Slayven said:
Other then being looked as interesting and a novelity, why would you use them in calculating anything?

You have people actually out there trying to game them.
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Maybe a lesson we should learn is not to trust the guy with a B.A. in Economics fawning over betting markets as something substantive.

ESPN broke his brain.
 
R

Revolver

Member
Iolo said:
The emails investigation will never be closed because, somewhere out there, emails could surface years from now. Therefore Comey must be kept on indefinitely so he can finish the investigation.
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Yup, never know when they'll have to file potential impeachment charges... sorry, perjury charges.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think the argument is that betting markets "have more at stake" because people are putting money up, but they don't actually have any more or less information than everyone else does, and they are highly volatile. I think Nate's pretty regular referencing of them is largely unexplained.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
I could see the use if election betting weren't low volume niche markets, but as they are now I can't see the value. He was citing them in the primaries when like 100 people were betting.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Boke1879 said:
lol if true
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its true

he wrote an op-ed explaining his decision

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/o...ight-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region

On Friday, the director of the F.B.I., James B. Comey, sent to members of Congress a letter updating them on developments in the agency’s investigation of Mrs. Clinton’s emails, an investigation which supposedly was closed months ago. This letter, which was quickly posted on the internet, made highly unusual public statements about an F.B.I. investigation concerning a candidate in the election. The letter was sent in violation of a longstanding Justice Department policy of not discussing specifics about pending investigations with others, including members of Congress. According to some news reports on Saturday, the letter was sent before the F.B.I. had even obtained the search warrant that it needed to look at the newly discovered emails. And it was sent days before the election, at a time when many Americans are already voting.

Violations of the Hatch Act and of government ethics rules on misuse of official positions are not permissible in any circumstances, including in the case of an executive branch official acting under pressure from politically motivated members of Congress. Such violations are of even greater concern when the agency is the F.B.I.

It is not clear whether Mr. Comey personally wanted to influence the outcome of the election, although his letter — which cast suspicion on Mrs. Clinton without revealing specifics — was concerning. Also concerning is the fact that Mr. Comey has already made highly unusual public statements expressing his personal opinion about Mrs. Clinton’s actions, calling her handling of classified information “extremely careless,” when he announced this summer that the F.B.I. was concluding its investigation of her email without filing any charges.

But an official doesn’t need to have a specific intent — or desire — to influence an election to be in violation of the Hatch Act or government ethics rules. The rules are violated if it is obvious that the official’s actions could influence the election, there is no other good reason for taking those actions, and the official is acting under pressure from persons who obviously do want to influence the election.

Absent extraordinary circumstances that might justify it, a public communication about a pending F.B.I. investigation involving a candidate for public office that is made on the eve of an election is thus very likely to be a violation of the Hatch Act and a misuse of an official position. Serious questions also arise under lawyers’ professional conduct rules that require prosecutors to avoid excessive publicity and unnecessary statements that could cause public condemnation even of people who have been accused of a crime, not to mention people like Mrs. Clinton, who have never been charged with a crime.

This is no trivial matter. We cannot allow F.B.I. or Justice Department officials to unnecessarily publicize pending investigations concerning candidates of either party while an election is underway. That is an abuse of power. Allowing such a precedent to stand will invite more, and even worse, abuses of power in the future.
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U

User 463088

Banned
I love RCP. They're such shit, and they don't even pretend they're not. They had to move PA back to Hillary. So, naturally, they decided to move Colorado back to tossup so she's short the requisite number of electoral votes...even though she has a 4.5 lead in their average.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Y2Kev said:
I think the argument is that betting markets "have more at stake" because people are putting money up, but they don't actually have any more or less information than everyone else does, and they are highly volatile. I think Nate's pretty regular referencing of them is largely unexplained.
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nature boy said:
I'll never understand PoliGAF's obsession with Dopey Nate
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You guys should have never forsaked Tyler
wutwutwut said:
McMullin's really gonna win Utah huh
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That is my one christmas wish. That Mc Mullin be more successful than the Switch
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
adam387 said:
I love RCP. They're such shit, and they don't even pretend they're not. They had to move PA back to Hillary. So, naturally, they decided to move Colorado back to tossup so she's short the requisite number of electoral votes...even though she has a 4.5 lead in their average.
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I don't think you all get how RCP works. It's incredibly basic and outdated in 2016. They do a simple average of polls they decide are worthy and anything below 5% is automatically toss-up.

There are plenty of sites/forecasters that do much more than just basic arithmetic now so their prominence is because they get name dropped on TV often.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I don't think you all get how RCP works. It's incredibly basic and outdated in 2016. They do a simple average of polls they decide are worthy and anything below 5% is automatically toss-up.

There are plenty of sites/forecasters that do much more than just basic arithmetic now so their prominence is because they get name dropped on TV often.
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No, I know how it works. I find them hilarious.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I don't think you all get how RCP works. It's incredibly basic and outdated in 2016. They do a simple average of polls they decide are worthy and anything below 5% is automatically toss-up.

There are plenty of sites/forecasters that do much more than just basic arithmetic now so their prominence is because they get name dropped on TV often.
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The problem is what polls they decide are worthy.
 
B

Blader

Member
My early voting plans this weekend were nixed, but I'm still gonna toss some money into a half-dozen Senate races.

For those who've donated before: is ActBlue a legit, secure site? I've literally never contributed to a campaign before and am wary of surrendering as much personal info as they ask for.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Blader said:
My early voting plans this weekend were nixed, but I'm still gonna toss some money into a half-dozen Senate races.

For those who've donated before: is ActBlue a legit, secure site? I've literally never contributed to a campaign before and am wary of surrendering as much personal info as they ask for.
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Yes, Act Blue is legit. Donated through them for years. :)
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Also, while those early vote numbers for yesterday in Florida weren't great, I'm not too concerned yet. In 2012, the 27th (which was a Saturday) was the first day of in person voting.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
sazzy said:
its true

he wrote an op-ed explaining his decision
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I think the best you could say of Comey is that he basically sent the letter to cover his own ass in case this information came out later and there was something damaging in them. Imagine if this never happened, and six months from now that Comey told Congress that they investigated these e-mails and found that Huma Abedin did something wrong. Congressional Republicans would be throwing a fit that Comey didn't tell them this earlier.

But an official doesn’t need to have a specific intent — or desire — to influence an election to be in violation of the Hatch Act or government ethics rules. The rules are violated if it is obvious that the official’s actions could influence the election, there is no other good reason for taking those actions, and the official is acting under pressure from persons who obviously do want to influence the election.
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And there it is.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
How is Souls to the Polls going today? Or will we find out at 11PM when church is finally over
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
nature boy said:
I'll never understand PoliGAF's obsession with Dopey Nate
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I'm sorry, I know he's a dork now but when you say this ^^ it makes me think you haven't heard of this vv

Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,[67] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator
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Like, that was and is a BIG FUCKING DEAL. What you're observing now is that he's fiddling with his model because he's 1) bored and this election is statistically boring, 2) terrified of being wrong after the Brexit vote, 3) polls have slightly adjusted their approach in response to him. Also you're observing that he's not a particularly good pundit.

But this suggestion that we have no reason to look in on him is kinda lol. Dude changed politics forever.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
If any of you aren't following David Rothschild on Twitter (Predictwise) I highly recommend you do so. Suuuuper down to earth, explains things well and logically, and keeps punditry to a minimum.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
PantherLotus said:
I'm sorry, I know he's a dork now but when you say this ^^ it makes me think you haven't heard of this vv



Like, that was and is a BIG FUCKING DEAL. What you're observing now is that he's fiddling with his model because he's 1) bored and this election is statistically boring, 2) terrified of being wrong after the Brexit vote, 3) polls have slightly adjusted their approach in response to him. Also you're observing that he's not a particularly good pundit.

But this suggestion that we have no reason to look in on him is kinda lol. Dude changed politics forever.
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No one is doubting his record, but his fear of Trump winning AND him losing his reputation as a result is making him say a lot of questionable stuff.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Kellyanne Conway ‏@KellyannePolls 4m4 minutes ago
New: the next First Lady, @MELANIATRUMP, to deliver speech in suburban #Philly on Thursday. #MAGA

They're sending Melania to Philly. Hahahahahahaahaha
 
S

Slayven

Member
adam387 said:
Kellyanne Conway ‏@KellyannePolls 4m4 minutes ago
New: the next First Lady, @MELANIATRUMP, to deliver speech in suburban #Philly on Thursday. #MAGA

They're sending Melania to Philly. Hahahahahahaahaha
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I can see her saying "when they go down, we go up"
 
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