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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Yeah, it's amazing how this narrative has formed that Trump is totally unaffected by scandals, especially considering the total dissection he went through this month. The overestimation of Donald Trump will forever be one of the most fascinating things about this election to me that I wonder if anyone will ever explore to an in-depth degree.

I think what a lot of people are coming to terms with still is that the Trump campaign can be rocked with as many scandals as it has and Trump's lower bound still remains where it is

A lot of us really do want to believe that if something vile enough came out he actually would earn only 15% of the vote
 
I think what a lot of people are coming to terms with still is that the Trump campaign can be rocked with as many scandals as it has and Trump's lower bound still remains where it is

A lot of us really do want to believe that if something vile enough came out he actually would earn only 15% of the vote

Yeah, but that issue goes beyond Trump.

Do you think 2008's final outcome was boring? Obama was comfortably ahead of McCain pretty much the entire campaign.

I would say that it was, myself. Obama as a candidate, and his campaign was amazing, and the uniting behind him was something to behold, but the race itself wasn't very notable, and there was never a real point where it looked like McCain was going to win.
 
I think what a lot of people are coming to terms with still is that the Trump campaign can be rocked with as many scandals as it has and Trump's lower bound still remains where it is

A lot of us really do want to believe that if something vile enough came out he actually would earn only 15% of the vote

nah. there are enough racists and single issue voters that you're guaranteed at least 20something percent.

Bush II's favorability even at it's dead lowest point was never below 29%. And that was in the thick of the "started an unnecessary war for profit" narrative.


I would say that it was, myself. Obama as a candidate, and his campaign was amazing, and the uniting behind him was something to behold, but the race itself wasn't very notable, and there was never a real point where it looked like McCain was going to win.

no one considers that race "boring." in retrospect it will be considered historic and revolutionary, as the country united around a minority candidate, giving him not only the win but flipping red states thought completely out of play (Indiana, NC) in the process with record breaking turnout.

no one cares where the polls actually were- only the final result.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Yeah, but that issue goes beyond Trump.

Sure but I think that's what people mean when they say his campaign is "scandal proof". Its led him towards a loss, but it hasn't led towards the kind of wholesale destruction in the popular vote that we'd like to think scandals of this magnitude would cause.
 
Remember, 27% is the crazy number. That's how many Illinoisans voted for Alan Keyes.

Hell it's probably higher when you consider that IL is such a deep blue state already.

If Trump's final popular vote tally begins with a 3 I'd chalk that up as a win.
 
So, Trump had an event at the Venetian today. His campaign decided to provide buses to take people to early vote. So, as he was wrapping up, he told them to go get on the bus and vote.

The buses weren't there. They didn't show up. No one had any clue where to go. There was no staff to point them in the right direction. Eventually, two black vans showed up to take people to early vote.



Each van holds 12 people for a rally that had a big turnout.

7 people went and voted.

GROUND GAME!

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly

Literally no words.
 

thebloo

Member
Do you think 2008's final outcome was boring? Obama was comfortably ahead of McCain pretty much the entire campaign.



you think the GOP is going to switch itself from "dumpster fire" to "functional political party" in four years?

Predictable would probably be a better word, rather than boring. And no, I don't believe the GOP will pull itself together and nominate someone good. But I still hope they do and we never get a candidate like Trump ever again.

As an aside, does anybody know who the people behind #draftourdaughters are? The materials are well done and look legit enough to make you think twice. I'm curious who has the money and the interest to do that at this stage.
 

tuffy

Member
RNC bump plus the climax of he e-mail scandal. A lot of people thought the pneumonia episode pre-debate was Clinton's worst period in the election, but I would say that stretch in July was probably the actual worst.
Looking at PEC's median EV estimator, it looks more like the post-convention, pre-debate stretch was actually worse:
EV_history.png
It seems like that length of time spent off the campaign trail was a bigger hit than the emails/RNC, but her numbers popped right back up once she was out campaigning again.
 

thebloo

Member
Palmer Luckey (guessing).

Huh. I'm really curious now. The answer is probably out there, but it would mean ending up in corners of the internet that I do not want to. A cursory search also shows Scott Adams as a possible source.
Anyway, it's funny that Donald's fans are more competent that his campaign.

Matthew Yglesias Verified account @mattyglesias

I wonder what share of people upset about Clinton's email server know what an email server is.

The replies are sorta funny in that they answer his question: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/792826751168745472
 
I just got done rigging the election for all Democrats running in Texas. I'll be voting again in a few days and of course on election day.

No line at my early voting station, but there was a handful of people voting and more coming in as I was leaving.
 
I just got done rigging the election for all Democrats running in Texas. I'll be voting again in a few days and of course on election day.

No line at my early voting station, but there was a handful of people voting and more coming in as I was leaving.

Make sure that all your dead relatives vote as well.
 

Tall4Life

Member
I just got done rigging the election for all Democrats running in Texas. I'll be voting again in a few days and of course on election day.

No line at my early voting station, but there was a handful of people voting and more coming in as I was leaving.

I've heard from reliable (((sources))) that the person ITT who votes the most for Hillary will get GAF Gold
 
What does it mean when someone on twitter has their name like (((this)))

((this)) is something that alt-right assholes would do on twitter to indicate that ((someone)) or ((something)) was controlled by the jews, was a jewish conspiracy, etc.

People have been bracketing their own names as a way of "taking it back" or shaming those people into not doing that anymore, since it's obvious everyone "gets it" now.
 

thebloo

Member
What does it mean when someone on twitter has their name like (((this)))

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/05/peopl...und-their-names-on-twitter-heres-why-5925002/

To the political geeks around here, read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/us/politics/neera-tanden-wikileaks.html

The woman is absolutely great. A quote after Hillary apologized for the server.

I definitely recommend having her beat up a punching bag (or a staffer but that is unpleasant) before she goes on. She really needs to exorcise the injustice of it all.
 

Sibylus

Banned
What does it mean when someone on twitter has their name like (((this)))

In brief: White supremacists made an app that surrounded the names of Jewish people (or people they merely accused of being Jewish) in those brackets. A lot of people surrounded their names with them manually to flip them off and fuck with the app.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Jason Miller on CNN right now saying internal polling is showing Donald tied in New Mexico and Michigan and that Clinton has a ceiling of 41-42%.
 
What does it mean when someone on twitter has their name like (((this)))

Months ago the alt right tried to make a browser add-on that would apply three pairs of parentheses to the name of someone on social media that has been identified as Jewish. As blowback to that, Jewish users of Twitter decided to willingly apply the parentheses to their names as a way of saying "yes I'm Jewish, do you have a problem with that?".
 

Crocodile

Member
Joy Reid is about to go into the Trump is a "philanthropist scam artist" WaPo story so hopefully that story is starting to pick up steam.
 
Joy Reid is about to go into the Trump is a "philanthropist scam artist" WaPo story so hopefully that story is starting to pick up steam.

Joy Reid is covering it because she's awesome, but the other shows/networks? HIGHLY skeptical they have enough integrity to give too much of a shit.
 

mo60

Member
Jason Miller on CNN right now saying internal polling is showing Donald tied in New Mexico and Michigan and that Clinton has a ceiling of 41-42%.

Mostr polls show hilary leading by double digits in NM and by a high single digit margin or low double digit margin in MI.
 
Can we at least talk about how fortunate Trump is as a candidate? He has the entire Russian government, Republicans in Congress, and now Comey basically helping him either intentionally or not. He almost has to make no case himself or work hard as a candidate.

Oh and every lone lunatic who kills innocent people in the name of ISIS is basically doing him a favor too by making look "right" about something.
 
Joy Reid is covering it because she's awesome, but the other shows/networks? HIGHLY skeptical they have enough integrity too much of a shit.

It's a fucking shame because it's probably the most well researched piece of journalism this election cycle. Farenthold has put together some awesome pieces, but the one that will be remembered is the tape which just fell into their laps.
 
Thought y'all might be interested in the Minnesota Star Tribune's political endorsements this year. They have a liberal bend but usually throw a bone or two to moderate Republicans (especially over liberal firebreathers, they went Coleman over Franken in 08), or Republicans in races they can't possibly lose. These are never ironclad predictions of what will happen, although this year it lines up pretty well with what I think will happen.

Hillary Clinton for president - DFL

In this distasteful election cycle, there is only one reasonable choice for stable leadership at a time when Americans yearn to move past gridlock and tackle long-standing problems with pragmatic solutions. Hillary Clinton is the Star Tribune Editorial Board’s choice to become the next president of the United States.

As with every leader, Clinton is not without her failings. She relies too heavily on a small coterie of longtime loyalists. She allowed a brutal primary to push her toward positions on trade and other issues that will need readjusting. Her tendency toward obfuscation and evading the truth when cornered — as seen in her handling of State Department e-mails and alleged Clinton Foundation conflicts — is a trait that must be overcome with a new commitment to candor and transparency.

But when those weaknesses are considered against the towering flaws of her opponent, Donald J. Trump, Clinton clearly is the nation’s best hope.

Tim Walz is a clear choice in the First District - DFL

A seasoned congressman skilled at representing his increasingly diverse and independent-minded district, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz has earned re-election to the U.S. House.

A veteran himself, Walz has been a strong, tough-minded voice for veterans, reaching across party lines to craft workable solutions that would improve transparency at the troubled Veterans Affairs agency and the hospitals so vital to ex-servicemen and women.

The teacher in Walz, 52, shines through in his careful preparation on the important topics he deals with, his ability to persuade through facts, and a passionate style that is optimistic and embracing, rather than nasty and divisive. Those skills will be invaluable in a House that is likely to be closely divided after this bruising election. Members who would rather extend their hands than score points will be best positioned to find the middle ground that moves the nation past extreme talking points and toward solutions.

Angie Craig is best fit for Second District - DFL

A product of the business world, where relationships and flexibility are crucial, Craig decries the extreme partisanship that has dominated Congress, and says she would look for solutions on both sides. The beleaguered Affordable Care Act, she said, is crying out for such an approach. “The individual marketplace is in trouble,” she said. “Democrats have been too slow to admit significant problems with the ACA and the GOP won’t even have a discussion, they just say repeal, repeal.”

Craig said the original bill expanded access, but now costs must be tackled. She would work to broaden risk pools, allow negotiations with the pharmaceutical industry to bring down prescription-drug prices, and institute payment reforms that are tied to health outcomes rather than the volume of procedures and purchases. Craig notes that at St. Jude she was responsible for integrating 18 companies. “When you look for cost efficiencies,” she said, “you will find them.”

Erik Paulsen earns nod in Third District - R

Voters in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District should feel fortunate to have two strong, experienced candidates on the ballot. The decision in this race was difficult, but the Editorial Board believes Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen should be returned for a fifth term.

Paulsen, 51, is Minnesota’s voice on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and the Joint Economic Committee, which focuses on economic growth and job creation. He also is the co-chair of the House Medical Technology Caucus, a critical position for a state with a sizeable med-tech industry.

As co-chair of the trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Caucus, Paulsen has advocated for free trade and continues to be a strong supporter, even in the face of anti-trade sentiment fostered by his party’s nominee, whom Paulsen recently renounced.

That is the kind of stature incumbency can bring, and Paulsen should continue using it to Minnesota’s advantage. Congress needs more moderate Republicans like Paulsen.

State Sen. Terri Bonoff, 59, the Democratic challenger, is knowledgeable, enthusiastic, and unafraid to display bold leadership and go against her party when she feels it necessary. Her advocacy for teacher-tenure reform, which this page has long admired, has cost her the support of the powerful teachers union, Education Minnesota.

No endorsements made in Fourth (Betty McCollum, DFL) or Fifth (Keith Ellison, DFL) Districts. Not too surprising - even Trump winning by 10 points wouldn't move the needle against the DFL here and the Tribune doesn't seem to like either of the Twin Cities representatives (heard of ethics issues against McCollum and Ellison is supposedly kind of a dick).

Tom Emmer deserves re-election in the Sixth District (R)

Rep. Tom Emmer is seeking a second term representing Minnesota’s Sixth Congressional District, and despite disagreeing with him on some significant issues the Editorial Board believes he deserves it.

Emmer, 55, has had an interesting trajectory as a political figure. When he started out in the Minnesota House in 2005, he brought with him a trial lawyer’s brash, elbows out, I-win-you-lose attitude. A deft speaker, he styled himself as a populist conservative and came within a whisker of becoming governor in 2010. He lost to Mark Dayton, and that was the beginning of a journey that continues today. He’s still a conservative: He favors small government and low taxes, opposes gun control and has been forthright about his support of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

But Emmer also has developed a more inclusive style. He listens. Exposure to the world as a congressman has broadened his views. He has seen the good that U.S. foreign aid does in spots around the globe. He knows addressing terrorism must go deeper than simplistic bans. “I tell people now if you want to create a Paris or Brussels, you can do that by pushing these young people away,” Emmer said, referring to the terrorist attacks in those cities. “We want you to be Americans.”

To that end, Emmer said he has built a strong relationship with U.S. Attorney Andy Luger on working to combat the roots of terrorism locally. He joined forces with fellow legislative alum Rep. Keith Ellison to form the Congressional Somali Caucus. He traveled to Alabama to take part in the 50th anniversary of the march on Selma. As a freshman, he made a practice of reaching out to Democrats on his subcommittees for breakfast or coffee.

Collin Peterson deserves another term (DFL, MN-7)

For more than a quarter-century, Rep. Collin Peterson has made it his business to be the guardian of agriculture in Congress. That’s been a boon not only to the Seventh District he serves, but to Minnesota, where agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy. He is a strong example of the kind of legislator whose clout and stature not only grow over time, but is put to good use on behalf of his district, his state and the country. Peterson has earned another term.

His perch as ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee has given Peterson purview not only over the farm bill, but conservation, international trade, bioterrorism, renewable energy, rural development and a host of related issues. From there he has built strong working relationships, a formidable base of knowledge and an unyielding commitment to getting the best deal for Minnesota farmers and the millions who depend on the food stamps program welded to the farm bill. His work on biofuels has helped foster American energy independence.

Far from a doctrinaire Democrat, Peterson, 72, can be thorny and plain-spoken, a political maverick who often sides with Republicans on fiscal issues and who remains mindful of government overreach. The Star Tribune Editorial Board disagrees with him on some issues, but his positions are well thought out, with little regard for party politics, and he is always open to a middle-ground solution. His take on trade is typical: He is committed to robust international trade, but thinks the Trans-Pacific Partnership should be renegotiated because, in his opinion, “we’re not getting the best deal.” On climate change, Peterson said he’s no skeptic, but is dubious about wholesale changes to agriculture, saying that “like everything else, the answer is more in the middle.”

Rick Nolan has earned a third term in the Eighth District (DFL)

After two productive terms that show what a legislator in the minority can accomplish, Rep. Rick Nolan has proved that he deserves to continue representing Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District.

Nolan has shown tenacity and a willingness to build coalitions that should stand him in good stead. A good example was his work this year on behalf of the Brainerd Regional Airport that will wind up benefiting small local airports — and taxpayers — across the country by providing a way to avoid having common-sense improvements get bogged down in Federal Aviation Administration red tape.

...

Nolan, 72, noted that the University of Virginia’s Legislative Effectiveness Scores named him one of the 10 most effective members of Congress in 2015.

...

The Editorial Board has never endorsed previously Nolan for Congress, either in his last two terms or when he served in the 1970s. But he has done well by his district and the state, and has earned re-election.
 

Amir0x

Banned
oh goody this election season needs more mess

I hope Comey is destroyed in every way conceivable so his career is embers and he has trouble pulling a hundred dollar bill for speeches.
 
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