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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

CCS

Banned
Grief.exe said:
Breaking

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/792840176733126656

CwC7axkXYAA9uRp.jpg
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Drag himmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Drag him into the street and throw him into the fucking gutter

I'll miss Reid
 
S

Slayven

Member
Manmademan said:
There's some pretty sharp people in here re: politics- and the moderation keeps the trolling and obvious cheerleading to a minimum. I haven't found anywhere else that's really close TBH.

If all of the long time posters are all saying the same thing, that should tell you something.
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I don't care what long time posters say, the switch is not going to get any good 3rd party support
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Thing is, if comey wanted to influence the election, he would have recommended indictment.
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That's not how it works. He can't just throw out a recommendation for indictment like that without a case. If there's no evidence of a crime, short of fabricating evidence, there's nothing he could do beyond what he did (which, btw, was unprecedented and not FBI policy. They don't make statements like he did)

He pretty clearly did this to influence the election and he needs to either resign or be kicked out. He has demonstrated he is not fit for the position he is in.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Thing is, if comey wanted to influence the election, he would have recommended indictment.
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No, he couldn't because there was no case, but what he did do was hold a big unprecedented press conference and made sure the world knew how "extremely careless" Clinton was, which was throwing the GOP a bone.

So, he did in fact try and influence public opinion.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Slayven said:
I don't care what long time posters say, the switch is not going to get any good 3rd party support
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LOL

no argument here. That thing is doomed.

If you asked me to bet what had better odds, Trump being president or that thing being a success, I'd have to bow out.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Monmouth person on MSNBC says polling in the field due for release tomorrow shows very little effect on Presidential race (less than 5% say it will change their vote or their likeliness to vote) but the down-ballot effect is more pronounced. It's energized Republicans.
 
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Boke1879

Member
Clinton will keep hammering the message about how unprecedented this is, but If Comey may have done something ethically wrong that needs to be called out.

Fuck this "how it looks crap" What he did could potentially swing an election and he deserves whatever consequences may come from that.

When you have people on both sides saying this shit don't sit right. When you have all this shit going on within the FBI clearly showing this shit doesn't sit right with them as a consensus. You fucked up.


Btw we'll see how much this sways downballots.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Boke1879 said:
Clinton will keep hammering the message about how unprecedented this is, but If Comey may have done something ethically wrong that needs to be called out.

Fuck this "how it looks crap" What he did could potentially swing an election and he deserves whatever consequences may come from that.

When you have people on both sides saying this shit don't sit right. When you have all this shit going on within the FBI clearly showing this shit doesn't sit right with them as a consensus. You fucked up.


Btw we'll see how much this sways downballots.
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Completely agree.
 
T

teiresias

Member
whyamihere said:
I honestly don't know if this is the best idea.
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If he violated the Hatch Act he deserves to be raked over the coals for it. As a federal employee, I have to sit through training about abiding by the damn thing every year, and if I were to run afoul of it, no doubt Comeys agency would be the one investigating me.

Besides, Reid is doing nothing but informing everyone about a potentiality that may result in an investigation that may happen, just like Comey did . . . what's good the goose and all that.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Suikoguy said:
That would have lost him his job faster.
Have you read the actual FBI report?
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Yes, listened to it live, etc

balladofwindfishes said:
That's not how it works. He can't just throw out a recommendation for indictment like that without a case. If there's no evidence of a crime, short of fabricating evidence, there's nothing he could do beyond what he did (which, btw, was unprecedented and not FBI policy. They don't make statements like he did)
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It was all based on the opinion that there was no intent.


Plumbob said:
Could have been interested in saving downballot races.
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So he was trying to influence it then.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Chi said:
FBI in Internal Feud Over Hillary Clinton Probe


Giant Mess. This article is crazy. Everything is disputed.
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The latest development began in early October when New York-based FBI officials notified Andrew McCabe, the bureau’s second-in-command, that while investigating Mr. Weiner for possibly sending sexually charged messages to a minor, they had recovered a laptop with 650,000 emails. Many, they said, were from the accounts of Ms. Abedin, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Those emails stretched back years, these people said, and were on a laptop that hadn’t previously come up in the Clinton email probe. Ms. Abedin said in late August that the couple were separating.

The FBI had searched the computer while looking for child pornography, people familiar with the matter said, but the warrant they used didn’t give them authority to search for matters related to Mrs. Clinton’s email arrangement at the State Department. Mr. Weiner has denied sending explicit or indecent messages to the teenager.
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In their initial review of the laptop, the metadata showed many messages, apparently in the thousands, that were either sent to or from the private email server at Mrs. Clinton’s home that had been the focus of so much investigative effort for the FBI. Senior FBI officials decided to let the Weiner investigators proceed with a closer examination of the metadata on the computer, and report back to them.
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So lets do some poligaf detective stuff

Huma turned over all her devices to FBI during the investigation. Investigation pretty much closed with no recommendation for indictment.

Now Weiner is caught sexting a kid. FBI obtain his laptop and recover 650k emails. FBI field office in NY inform the HQ that hey guys, we see some emails from Hillary's private server maybe you guys wanna look at? That leads to our current situation. Lets look at our possible scenarios (lets ignore the fact that Huma said she doesn't know how the emails ended up in Weiner laptop):

1) Huma knowingly did not submit Weiner laptop. Which will mean she's the biggest idiot in the world, and there is absolutely no evidence to support this assertion. At least when Weiner got caught, she would know the feds will take his laptop and find her emails.

2) Huma forgot that she used Weiner laptop. This could lead her into trouble because she told the Judicial Watch lawyers that these are all the devices where the emails were sent/received on. Again, she'd have to be really dumb.

3) Weiner broke into her laptop and was spying on her. This does not make much sense other than...I don't know, conspiracy theories. It doesn't make sense to me.

Anyone have more scenarios?
 
T

thebloo

Member
An interesting article about Killary, the she-demon of the Left.

Yet she’s cast not just as a political combatant but as a demon who, in the imaginings of Republicans like Paul D. Ryan, the speaker of the House, and Representative Trent Franks, would create an America “where passion — the very stuff of life — is extinguished” (the former) and where fetuses would be destroyed “limb from limb” (the latter).

Donald J. Trump and his supporters posit their antipathy as a reaction to Mrs. Clinton’s accumulated record over “30 years in power.” It’s important to recall that she was deranging Republicans on Day 1. Understanding her demonization requires admitting her full significance in our political history, for she is not simply a pioneering woman fighting an Ur-misogyny. Mrs. Clinton faces a two-headed Cerberus, an artificial conjoining that occurred in the early 1990s, of wounded Republican invincibility and wounded male prerogative.
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/opinion/sunday/how-hillary-clinton-met-satan.html
 
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Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I'd just like to point you guys thought the deplorable thing was genius as well. You're too far into the partisanship to see a good message versus a mud slinging message. Demanding information and transparency makes you look better than calling Comey partisan and all that.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Ecotic said:
Monmouth person on MSNBC says polling in the field due for release tomorrow shows very little effect on Presidential race (less than 5% say it will change their vote or their likeliness to vote) but the down-ballot effect is more pronounced. It's energized Republicans.
Click to expand...

Gulp
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I'd just like to point you guys thought the deplorable thing was genius as well. You're too far into the partisanship to see a good message versus a mud slinging message. Demanding information and transparency makes you look better than calling Comey partisan and all that.
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"you guys." The "Poligaf hivemind" is always wrong, they probably thought the WiiU would sell right?
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Has anyone seen county-level predictions from Benchmark Politics for Senate races?

I'm trying to build web scrapers for different competitive states as election results come in, and compare their partial county results with Benchmark's. The idea is I would run it and it would spit out 'if Hillary's current per-county performance holds, she should have 2345 more votes in NC than Benchmark predicts by the end and win by 1234 votes'. Nothing statistically rigorous, just for having fun on election night. I've already written a prototype that is just NC, and will add more states between now and election night.

I would love to also do this for close Senate races, espcially since doing the work to scrape a particular state elections site for president makes scraping the senate data not much extra work. I figured Benchmark would release their county-level Senate predictions like they do for Prez, but I haven't seen those yet.
 
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