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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
In the months when Trump has been talking non-stop about the globalists and bankers and media controlling the United States (with Assange right there also), Greenwald has talked about anti-semitism... Once... To mock the concept of sexism and anti-semitism.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/791301666012356610
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/791301666012356610
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
There has been no polling since the story.
Basileus777
Member
There's a ton of close Senate races, so possibly? There's no evidence to base anything off of right now.
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
Yes. But then again the Senate wasn't always a sure a thing to begin with.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
If trump wins, everyone should brace for a 2008 style drop in the economy. Do what ever you can to get through it.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
That would be the case for every poll now, though. It's not asking the same people like the USC/LAT tracker.
Makes some kind of sense I guess.
Manmademan
Member
Is this a serious response? Trump is rapidly careening to the worst loss in presidential election history since Reagan/Mondale. Saying "scandals haven't mattered!" is hilariously, demonstrably wrong. He's losing women across the board by 20 point margins.
Christie selecting a VP that's in serious danger of being impeached out of his gubernatorial office or going to federal prison just miiiiiiight be something they may be concerned about.
Christie isn't on tape "saying something vulgar." But his associates are testifying under oath that he was deeply involved in a CLEAR "abuse of power" incident that he's denied knowing anything about. He's massively, massively screwed and it's only a matter of time before he ends up in court.
I only known of dude since the primary and he has been a total ass
I would say it's possible though not likely. In many cases senate candidates are outperforming Trump, so if this issue raises R enthusiasm, it's possible that brings someone over the top. However, if this issue also raises D enthusiasm, as seems possible, that would obviously cancel it out.
Fragamemnon
Member
(((seriously reply)))
The Senate races that are close are all coming down to turnout of marginal voters-which party can get their leaners to the polls as well as their solid partisans. In NC, for example, Burr and Ross are neck and neck and have been for months. If Murphy wins in FL it'll be because Dems turned out their voters way better than Republicans did. Same for Nevada, PA, and NH.
To that end the latest FBI stuff doesn't appear to have made a big difference. The early voting numbers are consistent (with overall good Dem performance and unaffiliated performance that's currently hard to judge) and haven't changed much before/after Comey made his ridiculous error.
Given Trump's problems with ground game and turnout I'm much happier as a Dem looking at the situation than I would be vice versa. I think the GOP eats a series of heartbreaking Senate losses by close margins all night, and when they are done they are going to lay it all on the feet of Rinse and Trump.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Greenwald's newest hire, Rania Khalek, was fired today from a wildly Antisemitic pro-Hamas, pro-Hezbollah outlet for visiting with the Assad regime.
This guy knows how to pick winners.
This guy knows how to pick winners.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yeah, it's amazing how this narrative has formed that Trump is totally unaffected by scandals, especially considering the total dissection he went through this month. The overestimation of Donald Trump will forever be one of the most fascinating things about this election to me that I wonder if anyone will ever explore to an in-depth degree.
Manmademan
Member
I'm on board with this analysis.
It's also important to note that all of the early voting numbers we've seen so far have EXTREMELY large numbers of "unlikely" voters showing up to polls- especially in states (FL) with a lot of hispanics.
As the trump campaign literally has no ground game registering these people and doing GOTV, these are all almost certainly votes in the hillary column.
Unlikely voters tend not to pay attention to politics to the degree that "more hillary emails!" would have any effect. it takes a lot to catch the attention of those voters, but when you do good luck stopping THAT train.
Lord Frieza
Member
As an aside, I thought this article from 538 about October surprises and how much they impact the election at such late dates was a pretty good read. Might help to calm some of you to realize that, as talked about as they are, it's debatable how much an October surprise can really have major impact on an election.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...urprises-move-the-polls/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...urprises-move-the-polls/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
It validates their early vote projections, not the +6 necessarily. However since Hillary was up in the average, it is good news.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Is Weiner incapable of not digging himself into deeper and deeper holes?
Different groups of people and all that. Lile I said, it's just a theory.
Finale Fireworker
Member
Manmademan
Member
there will be entire college courses taught just on this election alone. It's been so off the wall and broken so many assumptions about how electorates actually behave.
Trump is scraping the bottom of the barrel of what's actually possible for a republican candidate. The only thing saving him from even worse numbers than he has is that die hard conservatives ignore any media that's not in the Fox/Breitbart/Limbaugh circle, and will literally support any candidate with an "R" on them no matter how bad they are.
metalslimer
Member
Wrong thread nvm
Basileus777
Member
Hillary will be fine.
I've been going through several podcasts and reading some articles here and there, and today in the NYT Sunday Review opinion section there's a paragraph from How Hillary Clinton Met Satan that made me think:
Then Bill Clinton came and put a crack in the glass of their dream, and along with him came Hillary which really offended them.
I forgot which podcast it was on (listening to so many that it's a blur now lol), but someone mentioned how Karl Rove put out a book about a Republican plan to secure the future—how they would get the Hispanic vote, the Asian vote, etc.—only a few days before the 2006 election where Democrats took the House back.
Of course, then along came Obama who straight up just shattered the glass.
I can't help but wonder if Republicans are being obnoxious like this because they feel they deserve the White House, that its their turn.
By the way, that article is pretty fun.
When Reagan ascended and then Bush Sr. succeeded him, I think the Republicans thought they had the game in the bag for decades to come, that something like FDR's reign was finally within their grasp. And they probably did feel invincible with the kinds of landslides they got in 1980, 84, 88.
Then Bill Clinton came and put a crack in the glass of their dream, and along with him came Hillary which really offended them.
I forgot which podcast it was on (listening to so many that it's a blur now lol), but someone mentioned how Karl Rove put out a book about a Republican plan to secure the future—how they would get the Hispanic vote, the Asian vote, etc.—only a few days before the 2006 election where Democrats took the House back.
Of course, then along came Obama who straight up just shattered the glass.
I can't help but wonder if Republicans are being obnoxious like this because they feel they deserve the White House, that its their turn.
By the way, that article is pretty fun.
A startling aspect of the rage that greeted Bill Clinton was how much of it was aimed at the women he entrusted — or tried to entrust — with power. When I was investigating one of the early skirmishes of the Clinton years, the burning of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Tex., which right-wingers attributed to Clinton’s F.B.I., I was treated to the fervent rants of “Patriot” men, aimed not at Mr. Clinton but at what I came to think of as the Three Witches of Waco: Attorney General Janet Reno (“Reno’s master is Satan,” a Third Continental Congress militiaman told me), the gun-control advocate Sarah Brady and, most of all, Hillary Clinton. Her anti-male conspiracies were legion: redirecting their tax dollars to bankroll women’s rights around the globe (“She gave away a million dollars to each first lady she visited in Africa to get educated”, using their Social Security to “pay for abortion,” and “calling the shots at the White House.”
User 463088
Banned
So, Trump had an event at the Venetian today. His campaign decided to provide buses to take people to early vote. So, as he was wrapping up, he told them to go get on the bus and vote.
The buses weren't there. They didn't show up. No one had any clue where to go. There was no staff to point them in the right direction. Eventually, two black vans showed up to take people to early vote.
Each van holds 12 people for a rally that had a big turnout.
7 people went and voted.
GROUND GAME!
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly
The buses weren't there. They didn't show up. No one had any clue where to go. There was no staff to point them in the right direction. Eventually, two black vans showed up to take people to early vote.
Each van holds 12 people for a rally that had a big turnout.
7 people went and voted.
GROUND GAME!
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly
balladofwindfishes
Member
I got that feeling when 45 people entered the GOP Primary. They all thought it was the GOP's "turn" to be president and they all wanted a shot.
HanShotFirst
Member
oh shit its over! He's gonna win NevAAHHda!
A damn mess. And you said these people didn't even know where to go vote?
It's over fam.
I mean, if Trump wins, everyone should brace themselves for World War III, complete with violent genocide.
Manmademan
Member
That's not why 14 people showed up for the GOP primary. You can point to the 2012 clown car as another example of the same thing, though that one wasn't as big.
It became obvious in the 2008 election that running in the election itself was enough to catapult you to a VERY profitable career on the speaking circuit, or as a fox news talking head.
Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are probably the two best examples of this, but Santorum was on the fox payroll as well, and Gingrich literally used his 2012 run as little more than a book tour.
As long as you aren't the one that loses to the democratic nominee, a brief run raises your national profile to the point where it becomes quite profitable inside of right wing media.
This is why there were 14 people on stage this year that would just NOT go away despite there being no realistic shot at the presidency.
Compare this to the democratic side- 5 candidates, 3 of whom rapidly dropped out. There is simply no benefit to democrats as there is on the republican end.
User 463088
Banned
I just cannot fathom this level of stupidity. You should have your staff there. You should know where to go> You should have the bus there! This is like basic campaigning.
wumster3000
Member
I wish I was a confident as the people on this board. What helps is, I've become numb to this whole election now.
Hahaha a rare glimpse at his amazing ground game.
Completely agree with you. I'm also thinking more of these people that attend his rallies. You would think as hyped as these people are there would be a basic interest in learning where to vote early on your own right?
I have to question how many of these people are even registered to vote. I'm sure it's a small number that aren't but still.
Manmademan
Member
There's some pretty sharp people in here re: politics- and the moderation keeps the trolling and obvious cheerleading to a minimum. I haven't found anywhere else that's really close TBH.
If all of the long time posters are all saying the same thing, that should tell you something.
Lord Frieza
Member
Wow.
I know people who are firmly Team Anybody But Hillary Including A Dog In A Tuxedo; during some of our aggravating arguments, they like to fall back on "He's not a politician, but I believe he'll hire smart people who will know how to get things done!"
No. This is who he hires for things. People who can't get a bus.
Weird, Nate Silver said that when a pollster's numbers change so drastically, and they report them anyway, it indicates the pollster trusts their data and is not self censoring. Oh well
Did this really change the ABC poll's results? I would like a link if available.
Manmademan
Member
disagree. decades from now no one is going to remember where the polls were.
They won't remember the polls, all that will matter there is the final result (which is going to be leaning towards the "historic victory" end for hillary).
Thinking about what else made campaigns memorable- it was usually video, soundbites, huge debate "wins" etc.
there's so much of THAT (including the primaries) that the hard part is picking which one.
It's going to be so boring when the Schadenfreude runs out and we're back to the same old obstructionism and futile fist shaking. Say what you will about Trump (and I'm sure everyone and their cousin will have a book out soon), at least he's been entertaining to watch implode twice a week for almost a year now. Career Republicans are far too slippery to get caught with their their consistent inconsistency showing, but Trump... he was at least willing to whip it out on a regular basis to entertain and horrify us in equal amounts.
We're never going to see a presidential election in our lifetime where "grab 'em by the pussy" isn't even the most provocative thing said. Kinda sad.
Oh well, I'll just console myself with another four years of a democrat in the Oval Office and all these liberal SCOTUS appointments. I'll get by... somehow.
Lord Frieza
Member
Outside of feelings, decades from now, it will be looked at as such a boring race.
Well, the numbers will be seen as boring, yeah. I doubt this campaign could ever truly be seen as boring, though, if for nothing else than outing Donald Trump as the most corrupt person to possibly ever run for President. But yeah, much like people see Trump as this nigh-unstoppable person who is always just one foot away from winning despite not being so, the reputation this election has gotten of being crazy and predictable is pretty off since this election is one of the more stable ones we've had in several cycles. Even 538/Nate Silver, whom many here seem to exclusively follow, giving Trump more "bullish" odds has shown a stable trend.
Yeah, I meant boring regarding the final outcome.
Hopefully 20-30 years we'll look back and still think it was crazy. By that I mean that 2020 and beyond go back to normal.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Outside of feelings, decades from now, it will be looked at as such a boring race.
July was a crazy month.
Manmademan
Member
Do you think 2008's final outcome was boring? Obama was comfortably ahead of McCain pretty much the entire campaign.
you think the GOP is going to switch itself from "dumpster fire" to "functional political party" in four years?
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