• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

Status
Not open for further replies.

TyrantII

Member
If you took Hillary's platform and the ideas she advocated, gave it to a young charismatic candidate, and didn't tell anyone it was from Hillary, I bet these same people would likely champion it as a great progressive platform and how Dems have learned the lessons from Hillary's "neoliberalism"

Shows how well propaganda and framing debates work.

Clinton was the devil; because that's all people have heard repeated over and over and over the last 30 years.

It worked. It turned the middle off, and fired up the right, just as it was always intended to do.

You're seeing white supremacists and Nazis doing it now, yet again, with "alt-right". The right is lightyears ahead in understanding this, mostly because theyre cynical bastards and winning as a bastard is better than losing your head in elections. Ask Ned Stark how well taking the high road worked.
 

Blader

Member
So the only jobs in the country that even come close to what these factory workers used to have are going to be ruined.

...


PEOPLE WANTING A JOB FOR LIFE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR YOU

These people have consistently rejected serious efforts by the government to improve their quality of life, and in their act of completely misguided and uninformed protest have fundamentally wrecked our democracy. I have no sympathy for what's going to happen to them.
 

TyrantII

Member
i cant look at any of this stuff and tack it seriously any more. How can you expect the new republic, of all periodicals, to put forth good analysis of blue collar workers

Well for one, if they had any effect it was marginal. Trump is still going to win with around the number of votes McCain did. That's not a wave, and its not some giant shift of the electorate.

Second, the real issue was voter suppression and general suppression of the electorate (tuning people off and out of the process).

Clintons going to get 2 million more votes than Trump. In the wrong places. If she got 500k out of Obama's 10 million missing pool to show up in 5 states, she wins.

They couldn't vote due to suppression, or they bought into the narrative woven about Clinton and hammered home for 30 years.
 
On mobile, so basic link and headline:

Trump’s Vanishing Base

https://newrepublic.com/article/138...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I think this is something to consider. The conclusions might be different in the end, but the premise is true. The white electorate is decreasing and so might be the white working class.

Fighting for the white working class vote might be a foolish thing in a few more cycles, doesn't mean you shouldn't attempt to reach out, but it means making them the main part of the coalition won't be viable in the long term.

What Obama said was right though, relying on demographics isn't smart you still need to reach out voters.
 

Joeytj

Banned
I think this is something to consider. The conclusions might be different in the end, but the premise is true. The white electorate is decreasing and so might be the white working class.

Fighting for the white working class vote might be a foolish thing in a few more cycles, doesn't mean you shouldn't attempt to reach out, but it means making them the main part of the coalition won't be viable in the long term.

What Obama said was right though, relying on demographics isn't smart you still need to reach out voters.

Yes. I think so far, neither Bernie, Warren, Schumer or any other major Democrats are arguing for them to abandon their demographic superior plan, but don't get to complacent like HIllary did.

She was not going to win with the 350 EV blowout we wanted, but she shouldn't have lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
 

dramatis

Member
Shows how well propaganda and framing debates work.

Clinton was the devil; because that's all people have heard repeated over and over and over the last 30 years.

It worked. It turned the middle off, and fired up the right, just as it was always intended to do.

You're seeing white supremacists and Nazis doing it now, yet again, with "alt-right". The right is lightyears ahead in understanding this, mostly because theyre cynical bastards and winning as a bastard is better than losing your head in elections. Ask Ned Stark how well taking the high road worked.
Would be a lot less damaging if the left didn't savage her too, but they won't admit to that.
 

daedalius

Member
Shows how well propaganda and framing debates work.

Clinton was the devil; because that's all people have heard repeated over and over and over the last 30 years.

It worked. It turned the middle off, and fired up the right, just as it was always intended to do.

You're seeing white supremacists and Nazis doing it now, yet again, with "alt-right". The right is lightyears ahead in understanding this, mostly because theyre cynical bastards and winning as a bastard is better than losing your head in elections. Ask Ned Stark how well taking the high road worked.

Very poignant.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yes. I think so far, neither Bernie, Warren, Schumer or any other major Democrats are arguing for them to abandon their demographic superior plan, but don't get to complacent like HIllary did.

She was not going to win with the 350 EV blowout we wanted, but she shouldn't have lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

But at the same time, she should not have lost FL by anywhere near as much as she did.

WWC was one path to victory, there were many. And it's INCREDIBLY easy to say now, versus before the election.
Hillary's plan was to push for a broad win which would help take the Senate.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
But at the same time, she should not have lost FL by anywhere near as much as she did.

WWC was one path to victory, there were many. And it's INCREDIBLY easy to say now, versus before the election.
Hillary's plan was to push for a broad win which would help take the Senate.

Honestly, in Florida there's no where else for Dems to turn out the vote from. They literally squeezed that orange dry. If we're going to see that level of rural turnout in Florida from now on then it's gone.
 
Honestly, in Florida there's no where else for Dems to turn out the vote from. They literally squeezed that orange dry. If we're going to see that level of rural turnout in Florida from now on then it's gone.

Do better in the rural areas instead of getting blown out.

Also, Rubio's re-election unquestionably helped him.
 
Honestly, in Florida there's no where else for Dems to turn out the vote from. They literally squeezed that orange dry. If we're going to see that level of rural turnout in Florida from now on then it's gone.
It's insane associating these results from my ostensible "bellweather" Florida county with a Democratic loss in Florida.
zufBJrs.png
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Do better in the rural areas instead of getting blown out.

The rural voters who won Trump Florida have literally never shown up before, it was unprecedented. I don't want to say they only showed up for him, but he certainly drew them out. No one even knew to go looking for votes in those areas.

It's insane associating these results from my ostensible "bellweather" Florida county with a Democratic loss in Florida.

Damn, that's pretty crazy.
 

TyrantII

Member
But at the same time, she should not have lost FL by anywhere near as much as she did.


Florida is an anomaly with no easy answer this cycle. She beat Obama's numbers down there, so unlike other states it wasn't a turnout issue.

It's one of the few states where Trump trounced the CW. He did find new voters there, which doesn't hold up much elsewhere.

It's going to need a close look as to why. But anti-immigration sentiment is very high in the panhandle.
 

Blader

Member
Anyone who buys into this has learned nothing.

I don't know, I think he's right about two major things: white working-class voters (and the white electorate as a whole) is shrinking, and there's no reason for the Democrats to completely overhaul their outreach efforts. The demographics are only going to continue shifting in the Democrats' favor, so reorienting the focus of the party toward WWC over minorities seems like a foolish and myopic strategy.

I'm kind of confused by the calls for the DNC to completely rethink its approach, because we already a twice-proven winning approach with Barrack Obama. Don't abandon the Obama coalition in the slightest, but don't abandon WWC voters either. A more exciting candidate is clearly necessary, and maybe that's part of the reason WWC voters were more likely to flock to Obama than Hillary. But Hillary's fatal flaw was that her campaign outright ignored WWC voters. Obama didn't; he still lost among them, by much smaller margins than Hillary did, because he worked at them.

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, don't overthink the lessons from this election. Repeat Obama's strategy and keep your eyes on the base coalition without forgetting WWC voters in the process. Am I wrong to think that seems like a pretty obvious way to win the White House again?
 
While I do think the firing situation is kind of ridiculous in the civil service (there are definitely some that hang on by virtue of being civil servants where i am), I'll never understand the retirement benefits thing.

Even in this article they talk about "moving" to a 401k-type plan, but that's what the current FERS system is already and under which all new employees enter. They have no idea what the current retirement system is to begin with apparently.

Federal employees like me who were hired before 1987 receive a generous defined benefit CSRS pension, and the ability to retire at 55 or possibly earlier. That is what people used to refer to when they would talk about federal workers' great retirement benefits in the old days. The current FERS system is a three-legged stool of a smaller defined benefit pension, 401k (with matching contributions), and Social Security, with retirement at 62. The WaPo article isn't clear, but I gather what Chaffetz wants to do is get rid of the defined benefit leg entirely.
 

dramatis

Member
Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, don't overthink the lessons from this election. Repeat Obama's strategy and keep your eyes on the base coalition without forgetting WWC voters in the process. Am I wrong to think that seems like a pretty obvious way to win the White House again?
Because in the end there is a group that is hungry for power also. They're not interested in a careful examination of results, they're interested in using selective data that supports their narrative of why they should be in charge and have the power. All with the interest of "winning elections", but of course is very narrowly thought out, not long-term, and too eager to abandon existing structure because they are not invested in existing structure, they just want to tear it down.
 
Yes. I think so far, neither Bernie, Warren, Schumer or any other major Democrats are arguing for them to abandon their demographic superior plan, but don't get to complacent like HIllary did.

She was not going to win with the 350 EV blowout we wanted, but she shouldn't have lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Still though, demographics still need to be considered regardless. Bernie might be doing something foolish that wouldn't ultimately matter in the long term. Going for some white working class is not entirely bad, but are they equipped to actually attract those voters into their fold whilst holding on the Obama coalition vote? In my opinion Bernie has failed at that drastically and so have populist democrats that failed this year.

It could be that a great deal of those voters are extremely Republican and conservative with the only way of obtaining their vote is nothing less of being Republicans themselves or being Republican-lites. Selling them not-socialism is simply not going to work. People need to ask themselves how exactly are they going to attract those voters. The vague term of "reaching out" means fucking nothing if they don't explain or demonstrate how to exactly do that. Liberals and white liberals may be doing the same sins like they did before, infantilizing a demographic they know nothing about and assuming that their liberal ideas will convince them over.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Federal employees like me who were hired before 1987 receive a generous defined benefit CSRS pension, and the ability to retire at 55 or possibly earlier. That is what people used to refer to when they would talk about federal workers' great retirement benefits in the old days. The current FERS system is a three-legged stool of a smaller defined benefit pension, 401k (with matching contributions), and Social Security, with retirement at 62. The WaPo article isn't clear, but I gather what Chaffetz wants to do is get rid of the defined benefit leg entirely.

Baby Boomers really knew how to shut the door behind them.
 
Tulsi Tulsi on the wall
Who is the most Liberal Icon™ of them all?



Not Shillary Hillary that's not true
Rotten Clinton is not for you
She's corrupt and lying, that's what I see
Coughing and dying, terrible to me
Because Liberal Icon™ she cannot be

Gabbard, Gabbard Liberal Icon™ for all
She supported Bernie and even the wall
No Muslim in here, that's where she'll begin
Tulsi will make America great again
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Florida is an anomaly with no easy answer this cycle. She beat Obama's numbers down there, so unlike other states it wasn't a turnout issue.

It's one of the few states where Trump trounced the CW. He did find new voters there, which doesn't hold up much elsewhere.

It's going to need a close look as to why. But anti-immigration sentiment is very high in the panhandle.

I mean this is the thing. When the Democrats look at what happened in Florida, it's not really about what they did wrong. They played error free ball down there and still lost. It's about what Trump did right down there and how to counter it going forward. Or even if what happened can be replicated by the GOP going forward.
 
Oh waaaaaah. We weren't excited, so fuck the supreme court, workers rights, women's rights, the reuprising of white nationalism, destruction of healthcare, etc etc etc.

Special fucking snowflakes my ass.
as a Canadian, i will never understand why Americans are so needy of unicorns.

Okay, Justin is one LOL but prior to him we elected so many (from both parties) who are not charismatic, boring or one had a big speech impediment in both official languages.

this obsession of having a ubber-charismatic unicorns is insane!

Sometimes, the best bosses are the boring ones but who get the job done.

the requirement to feel ''inspired'' is juvenile
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I look forward to years of middle-America white folks not giving a shit about Trump's moral and ethical repugnancy and the general inefficacy of his administration, just to then turn around and give the Dems another chance because Trump didn't "do enough" for them.
 
as a Canadian, i will never understand why Americans are so needy of unicorns.

Americans aren't. Half of the country will vote for whoever has an R next to their name. And about 40% of Ds will too. But that nasty little 10% ruins the entire country being super picky and hypocritical and wanting to feel like a special little snowflake.
 

Nelo Ice

Banned
Well cleared my head over the weekend and tried to shut myself off from the internet. I come back to an avalanche of horror stories. Yep it really is a countdown to doomsday on 1/20/17.
 

mo60

Member
Honestly, in Florida there's no where else for Dems to turn out the vote from. They literally squeezed that orange dry. If we're going to see that level of rural turnout in Florida from now on then it's gone.

She needed around a 3% national win in order to win florida.She got around 2%. It's likely if the democrats win the election by that much they will win florida.
 
If you took Hillary's platform and the ideas she advocated, gave it to a young charismatic candidate, and didn't tell anyone it was from Hillary, I bet these same people would likely champion it as a great progressive platform and how Dems have learned the lessons from Hillary's "neoliberalism"
They should give the platform to Liberal Icon Tulsi Gabbard.
 
Honestly, in Florida there's no where else for Dems to turn out the vote from. They literally squeezed that orange dry. If we're going to see that level of rural turnout in Florida from now on then it's gone.

Yup. You pretty much would have to cut into the WWC margins in Florida to have any chance to take it.

Also, this partisan gerrymandering case has got me hot and bothered. Everything is in Kennedy's court!
 

mo60

Member
Anyone who buys into this has learned nothing.

His base is not vanishing and they are still strong but there is going to be a point in the future when white voters alone don't decide an election. Even with trump's record setting support from whites he still did way worse then Reagen ever did in terms of the EC and popular vote in his first election which seems to indicate that white voters don't hold as much power as they used to hold.If trump can barely beat hilary while crushing her with WWC that may be indicating a problem in the future for the GOP.
 
You guys are way too dismissive of the new republic article. Just because Trump won once doesn't mean he or someone like him will win again. This election, as pointed by new republic, was an extreme outlier. The danger for democratic party is to see this fluke as trend and shift it's focus towards WWC. Minority vote will be 40% in 2032, as the article says. We had the problem of special snowflakes sitting this election out, combined with EmAIlLZZzzz drip drip drip perpetrated by the media in tandem with FBI which is infiltrated by deplorables. On top of that, Russia was controlling the information flow. Hillary Clinton was not the best candidate but I doubt she would have lost if everything did not align against her. It was a shitty election fueled by faux populism.
 
as a Canadian, i will never understand why Americans are so needy of unicorns.

Okay, Justin is one LOL but prior to him we elected so many (from both parties) who are not charismatic, boring or one had a big speech impediment in both official languages.

this obsession of having a ubber-charismatic unicorns is insane!

Sometimes, the best bosses are the boring ones but who get the job done.

the requirement to feel ''inspired'' is juvenile

Trudeau is the king unicorn!
 
Please do it.

It'll be fascinating to watch the reaction of Sanders folks who think she's the cat's meow solely because she endorsed him.

Come on, you don't even need to go that far. Just look at the OT.

"Islamophobia isn't racism"
"Islam isn't a race"
"Saying there are fundamental problems with Islam is a problem now??"
"She is against Saudi Arabia and Iran, two theocracies. Good on her!"
 

TyrantII

Member
Americans aren't. Half of the country will vote for whoever has an R next to their name. And about 40% of Ds will too. But that nasty little 10% ruins the entire country being super picky and hypocritical and wanting to feel like a special little snowflake.

It's more like 26%, 24%, and 2%

Then you have the other 48% just sitting home.

The focus needs to be on them. They are who Obama turned out, and they are at least open to what they consider good ideas and candidates. Get 2% and you win. Get 5% and its a wave election.

Focusing on the Racists in Florida that came out, or the Tea Party block in the other states is futile. They're gone, and they're not coming back. They're indoctrinated by propaganda and hate of the left.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I think the most likely way Trump will lose support is if his appointees are establishlent folks, and the most moderate/sensible among them eventually quit, especially if they quit in a similar time frame. If Cruz and Romney wanted to get back at him they would accept a job and drop out at the most damaging time. Both are finished anyway as far as the presidency is concerned anyway.
 

dramatis

Member
You guys are way too dismissive of the new republic article. Just because Trump won once doesn't mean he or someone like him will win again. This election, as pointed by new republic, was an extreme outlier. The danger for democratic party is to see this fluke as trend and shift it's focus towards WWC. Minority vote will be 40% in 2032, as the article says. We had the problem of special snowflakes sitting this election out, combined with EmAIlLZZzzz drip drip drip perpetrated by the media in tandem with FBI which is infiltrated by deplorables. On top of that, Russia was controlling the information flow. Hillary Clinton was not the best candidate but I doubt she would have lost if everything did not align against her. It was a shitty election fueled by faux populism.
I think Trump is an outlier too.

However, I'm not so optimistic about demographic shifts anymore.
 

mo60

Member
I think the most likely way Trump will lose support is if his appointees are establishlent folks, and the most moderate/sensible among them eventually quit, especially if they quit in a similar time frame. If Cruz and Romney wanted to get back at him they would accept a job and drop out at the most damaging time. Both are finished anyway as far as the presidency is concerned anyway.

Or him and the republicans think they got the support of voters to do anything they want and start doing stuff that pisses off and energizes the majority of the people who did not vote for him to vote against him and the republican party in the midterms and the next election.
 
I didn't realize Progressive Icon Tulsi Gabbard didn't sign the letter opposing Bannon. And Bannon is apparently a fan of hers. And she's meeting with DJT today!

http://mauitime.com/news/politics/w...in-denouncing-trump-appointee-stephen-bannon/

More at the link, on my phone so I can't copy. And yes, stuff like this is why many of us have dislike Gabbard for a while, with reasons that have nothing to do with her primary support of Bernie.

I think it;s fascinating that no one can really point to why she's relevant at all beyond endorsing Sanders...
 

Barrage

Member
Dems that got caught sippin on Hopium about the Latino vote have to realize that,

A) Latinos do not vote as uniformly democrat as African Americans do.

and

B) There is a growing demographic of second and third-gen Latinos that are culturally white, and support Repubicans. This group will be cultivated more and more as the demographics shift.
 
Trump did a lot better with the WWC because honestly, there was basically zero discussion about what he was actually going to do if elected outside of vague platitudes. Now that it's over Ryan and co are already talking about phasing out medicare. Trump's ridiculous approach to distract from what is actually happening is his best and worst quality. Because the GOP that screws the WWC has their rubber stamp.

It's also our fault for not talking about that and isolating Trump. We should have pointed out what was obviously going to happen, and attached him to the GOP instead of making him out to be a pied piper. Talked about Ryan and McConnell more. Far too many "think of the children" ads because he said fuck on stage or something.
 

mo60

Member
I have been thinking lateky but when will be the next time republicans win the popular vote. I don't see them winning the popular vote for another decade or so right now. I don't think trump will pull a Bush 2004 in 2020 as long as the GOP loses the presidential race in CA and NY by over 20 points or by nearly 30 points in CA's case.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom