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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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S

shinra-bansho

Member
Drain the wall.
Pixieking said:
Empowered by Trump, Ohio legislature pass ‘heartbeat’ bill that would ban most abortions
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This is partly what I was aiming to get at before.
While people can blather on about movements and revolutions and narratives, this is what a movement actually looks like.

While I don't know if this is a direct result of outside action I'm sure AUL and ALEC and the like are busy drafting horrorshow legislation throughout the US. And as repugnant as they are to me ideologically, they actually get shit done. While people who don't even know they exist think that giving $5 during a primary and making a bunch of memes is progress.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
jtb said:
Or have they? I really don't know. I'm interested to learn more about why redistricting can be challenged on constitutional grounds, but apportionment cannot (this was sparked by reading an Emily Baezlon tweet on the subject fwiw)
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I think it would be very dangerous for Democrats to assume that increasing the size of the House represents a solution. I pointed this out before, but as the number of geographical districts increase, the more the natural bias towards geographically dispersed rather than geographically clustered demographics - which, in the United States, is Republicans. I agree that the size of the House needs increasing in an ideal world, but that would have to be done in conjunction with moving away from small, single-member districts to state-wide multi-member districts, elected proportionately. Otherwise, you're just moving from having a Republican bias because very small states are definitely guaranteed one representative to have a Republican bias because Democrats live near one another.
 
P

Patrick Klepek

furiously molesting tim burton
shinra-bansho said:
Drain the wall.

This is partly what I was aiming to get at before.
While people can blather on about movements and revolutions and narratives, this is what a movement actually looks like.

While I don't know if this is a direct result of outside action I'm sure AUL and ALEC and the like are busy drafting horrorshow legislation throughout the US. And as repugnant as they are to me ideologically, they actually get shit done. While people who don't even know they exist think that giving $5 during a primary and making a bunch of memes is progress.
Click to expand...

That's why the biggest thing that needs to happen in the next four years is not regaining the presidency, but re-establishing control of state/local government. Trump's election has put that in stark relief, at least. I'm not hopeful quite yet.
 
A

Azzanadra

Member
B-Dubs said:
The loss was so small and so concentrated that literally any positive change would have swung the election. Maybe if she didn't get sick, maybe if Comey hadn't sent the letter, maybe if she spent an extra day in the area, maybe if there hadn't been a 26 year campaign of hate against her.

That's why seeing this as a reason to do a full-scale overhaul of the party's policy and platform is silly. You could slot Gillibrand into Clinton's campaign and she would have won by virtue of not being Clinton.
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This would be true regardless of if Clinton won or not... Obama's presidency was a smoke and mirrors to the failing institution that was the Democratic party, if Clinton was elected president the GOP would still have the house and the senate.
 
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PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Azzanadra said:
This would be true regardless of if Clinton won or not... Obama's presidency was a smoke and mirrors to the failing institution that was the Democratic party, if Clinton was elected president the GOP would still have the house and the senate.
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oh come on. literally weeks ago we were talking about how the GOP was clearly imploding and would have hell to pay.

this is all nonsense.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Azzanadra said:
This would be true regardless of if Clinton won or not... Obama's presidency was a smoke and mirrors to the failing institution that was the Democratic party, if Clinton was elected president the GOP would still have the house and the senate.
Click to expand...
The DNC failings were explicitly due to Obama.
 
S

studyguy

Member
If Trump lost we'd literally never hear about his run ever again outside of his rallies that would deffo continue in force. RNC wouldn't even acknowledge he existed.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Good Job Bob said:
To be frank, that talk was always pure liberal delusion/wishful thinking.
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i don't see how a very clear and obvious fracture in the party between the tea party types and the big business types careening toward a party split when Donald Trump is on the table is wishful thinking. if it's so clearly wishful thinking, where was everyone saying so at the time?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
PantherLotus said:
i don't see how a very clear and obvious fracture in the party between the tea party types and the big business types careening toward a party split when Donald Trump is on the table is wishful thinking. if it's so clearly wishful thinking, where was everyone saying so at the time?
Click to expand...

Frankly, I still think it's true. A functional party wouldn't have elected a fascist and white nationalist.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
87LZJes.png


Gingrich thought today was a good day to mix fear-mongering with praise for 1941 Japan's military planning. I can't wait for his praise of bin Laden's coordination of 9/11 attacks next year.
 
H

Hyperactivity

Banned
PantherLotus said:
oh come on. literally weeks ago we were talking about how the GOP was clearly imploding and would have hell to pay.

this is all nonsense.
Click to expand...

The imploding GOP talk was primarily at their chances at the presidency. They could've have lost both houses and the presidency and still have had a scary level of control at the state and local level
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Drain the wall.

This is partly what I was aiming to get at before.
While people can blather on about movements and revolutions and narratives, this is what a movement actually looks like.

While I don't know if this is a direct result of outside action I'm sure AUL and ALEC and the like are busy drafting horrorshow legislation throughout the US. And as repugnant as they are to me ideologically, they actually get shit done. While people who don't even know they exist think that giving $5 during a primary and making a bunch of memes is progress.
Click to expand...
Yup. Younger/more liberal people think the presidency is the end-all, be-all of political achievement when it's just another cog in the machine (a big cog, to be sure, but a cog).

"Aw man, Bernie didn't win, might as well not even vote."
 
E

Eusis

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Yup. Younger/more liberal people think the presidency is the end-all, be-all of political achievement when it's just another cog in the machine (a big cog, to be sure, but a cog).

"Aw man, Bernie didn't win, might as well not even vote."
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This. It's just one of the three main branches, and it was a big deal partially for influencing one of those branches and keeping the other in check. But while we can't directly control the Judicial branch we could still control the legislative but half of that is people not wanting to turn out, the other half is that frankly a lot of areas are very safe for Republicans or just horrible politicians period with Gerrymandering exacerbating those issues.

Admittedly though with gerrymandering factored out it's still the intent of the system and means the issue mainly lies with the people. But it's still kind of frustrating when you have McConnells or Cruzs that are willing to stop up the system in one way or another and most of us can't do a damn thing about them being there.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
PantherLotus said:
i don't see how a very clear and obvious fracture in the party between the tea party types and the big business types careening toward a party split when Donald Trump is on the table is wishful thinking. if it's so clearly wishful thinking, where was everyone saying so at the time?
Click to expand...
The fracture is gone now though. The GOP knows there is more electoral upside than downside to pandering to their extreme. There was no great rebuke to Trump's explicit racism and nativism approach.

And he and the voters he fooled are a means to their end. They will be all hands on deck in 2018, 2020 and so on.

The money that held out this cycle will flow freely.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
shinra-bansho said:
The fracture is gone now though. The GOP knows there is more electoral upside than downside to pandering to their extreme. There was no great rebuke to Trump's explicit racism and nativism approach.

And he and the voters he fooled are a means to their end. They will be all hands on deck in 2018, 2020 and so on.

The money that held out this cycle will flow freely.
Click to expand...
Indeed. Just look at Romney trying to get into the fold.
 
M

mo60

Member
Good Job Bob said:
To be frank, that talk was always pure liberal delusion/wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

The GOP can still implode. Trump winning the election has temporary closed the divsions within their party. There advantage in state house, congress and etc will slowly be eroded in the next decade or two if they don' t moderate their party.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
KingBroly said:
I don't think people understand how hard it's going to be to beat Trump in 4 years unless the global economy collapses.
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I think we're more likely than not to hit a recession (not quite a collapse), which won't help Trump's chances.

He's such an unknown, we have no idea how popular he'll be by 2020 (I still wouldn't rule out him not running in 2020, I still don't think he really ever wanted the job and he's going to be working one of the hardest jobs on the planet at age 70).
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
KingBroly said:
I don't think people understand how hard it's going to be to beat Trump in 4 years unless the global economy collapses.
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Given how incredibly close he came to losing without taking any political blame, not sure why Trump being the first fourth two-term president ever and be way stronger next time around. We haven't even seen 2018 yet!
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
DrForester said:
Sure we do.


2018 - Democrat incompetence leads to Republican gains in the house and senate


2020 - Democrat incompetence results in a popular vote victory, but Electoral College loss.
Click to expand...

2018: Traditional trends in voting leads to a Democrat sweep of the House due to how it's always worked forever with extremely few exceptions

2020: The economy collapsed and the earth is on fire and Trump doesn't run. Pence loses to a ferret in a tie the Democrats ran as a joke. President ferret goes on to be the single greatest president the country has ever had.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
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metalslimer

Member
The problem going forward is that there won't be the same fractured fight coming from the republicans. All the money that sat out this election will be behind him and the party in full force. That being said, we are due for a downturn pretty soon.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
metalslimer said:
The problem going forward is that there won't be the same fractured fight coming from the republicans. All the money that sat out this election will be behind him and the party in full force. That being said, we are due for a downturn pretty soon.
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My biggest worry is that Trump will be really good at selling himself as someone that gets stuff done even if he has to lie to do it.

But maybe if a downturn happens he can't lie his way out of that.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
I need to not let Kellyanne Conway make me angry and get me banned again.

On that note. given this past week, as an LGBT individual: oh my God am I fucked.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
The fracture is gone now though. The GOP knows there is more electoral upside than downside to pandering to their extreme. There was no great rebuke to Trump's explicit racism and nativism approach.

And he and the voters he fooled are a means to their end. They will be all hands on deck in 2018, 2020 and so on.

The money that held out this cycle will flow freely.
Click to expand...

I mean, there was a rebuke. That's why Trump did so badly in the popular vote and is so underwater in terms of popularity.

Maybe 538 was right and there was a 30% chance of a very narrow Trump victory and that's actually what happened.

Also, honestly, if we run a candidate without huge baked-in negatives, or just campaign better in the Rust Belt near the end, or wait a little bit for the Sun Belt to mature, or don't have Russia trying to ruin the election, or just have the FBI not try to destroy the country, then we probably win.

I'm really much less concerned about our ability to win elections and have the GOP collapse in the future as I am about Trump implementing a herrenvolk democracy or just starting a race war. If America doesn't completely collapse progressivism still wins. Although it would be good for people to wake up and start spending their lives on fighting the moral battles that matter, so hopefully Trump can help that happen. Also the millions of people who will suffer or die as a result of GOP policies.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
So Trump and Carrier leave the Steel Worker's Union out of the tax break bonanza, and then Trump goes onto twitter to insult the union's leader after he was called out on it.

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 26m26 minutes ago

If United Steelworkers 1999 was any good, they would have kept those jobs in Indiana. Spend more time working-less time talking. Reduce dues
2,458 replies 2,139 retweets 7,796 likes
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 2h2 hours ago

Chuck Jones, who is President of United Steelworkers 1999, has done a terrible job representing workers. No wonder companies flee country!


This fucking idiot. We have four years of this thin skinned nonsense.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
cgOke18.png


Time for liberals to stop giving Trump cover with their bullshit meetings.
 
F

faisal233

Member
shinra-bansho said:
21st Century Cures Bill passes.

Opposed - Warren, Sanders, Wyden and Merkley of Oregon. And Mike Lee of GOP.
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Elizabeth Warren @SenWarren
11s
I’m glad that many good provisions in the #CuresAct will become law, but I’m disappointed by the price we paid for the GOP to pass the bill.
 
M

mo60

Member
One good thing about 2020 is that unless trump actually governs well he may do very bad in 2020. No amount of money will save him in 2020 if he governs badly. He barely won in a year that was favourable for republicans. If he screws up the backlash in 2020 will probably result in the democrat who faces him to win against him by a signficant margin.
 
G

geomon

Member
faisal233 said:
Elizabeth Warren @SenWarren
11s
I’m glad that many good provisions in the #CuresAct will become law, but I’m disappointed by the price we paid for the GOP to pass the bill.
Click to expand...

One major winner — and a donor to both parties — was the pharmaceutical industry; its role set off fierce but futile opposition by Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts. On many of the areas addressed by the bill, pharmaceutical companies were in step with the interests of patients desperate for cures, an unusual and emotionally charged alliance between an industry and its consumers.
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The bill was a test of Ms. Warren’s muscle, exercised from the far left of the Senate Democratic caucus, and it is one that did not go well. “I will fight it,” she said of the bill last week on the Senate floor, “because I know the difference between compromise and extortion.”

In the end, however, not a single member of her home state, which has many medical research centers joined her. Nor did anyone else apart from three other left-leaning senators — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, both of Oregon — and Senator Mike Lee, Republican of Utah.

The measure would benefit people with mental illness and chronic diseases, biomedical researchers, pregnant women, hospitals, children with diabetes, people addicted to opioid drugs, children who are bullied, and those who are gravely ill.
Click to expand...

And big pharma wins yet again.
 
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shinra-bansho

Member
She had valid critiques. At least she seems to have thought about and articulated them in her public opposition.
It does highlight that she doesn't wield the power among her colleagues that's often ascribed.
 
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