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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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Also, what people need to talk about more is that Trump doesn't actually "not" believe in climate change

it's that you can actually boost the economy a bit, especially in the areas that elected him, if you don't give a fuck about the environment.

He denies the science, not because he's stupid (even though he is) but that it gives him an out to move forward with short term economic policies with long term devastating consequences

I really don't expect the type of economy crash people are saying might happen. Especially with the massive tax slashes etc. As we saw in the 80s this approach can work for a little bit.. But by the time it crashes and blows up the presidency is probably over anyway.
 
Also, what people need to talk about more is that Trump doesn't actually "not" believe in climate change

it's that you can actually boost the economy a bit, especially in the areas that elected him, if you don't give a fuck about the environment.

He denies the science, not because he's stupid (even though he is) but that it gives him an out to move forward with short term economic policies with long term devastating consequences

I really don't expect the type of economy crash people are saying might happen. Especially with the massive tax slashes etc. As we saw in the 80s this approach can work for a little bit.. But by the time it crashes and blows up the presidency is probably over anyway.

.... This is a terrible analysis of Trump and climate change actually and it's important to understand why Trump doesn't believe in climate change.

So, in Scotland, Trump has a golf course. Near his golf course, Scotland approved a wind farm to be built because of concerns about climate change. Trump thought it made his golf course less beautiful so he hated the wind farm so he decided that global warming was a hoax so that he could feel more offended by the wind farm.

This was not a calculated move, this was Trump being triggered by a wind farm. People need to understand this. Trump is just a fucking weirdo who takes people doing what he doesn't want as a personal slights and then Trump starts a feud that escalates dramatically. This, of course, is literally the worst possible quality in a president.
 

mo60

Member
Also, what people need to talk about more is that Trump doesn't actually "not" believe in climate change

it's that you can actually boost the economy a bit, especially in the areas that elected him, if you don't give a fuck about the environment.

He denies the science, not because he's stupid (even though he is) but that it gives him an out to move forward with short term economic policies with long term devastating consequences

I really don't expect the type of economy crash people are saying might happen. Especially with the massive tax slashes etc. As we saw in the 80s this approach can work for a little bit.. But by the time it crashes and blows up the presidency is probably over anyway.

It will depend on how big the tax slashes are and what effects trump other policies have on the US economy.
 
Conservative writer explains to George Takei why the incineration of Takei's family was fully good.

C0XpCwkXUAA1oFh.jpg


>_>
"It was your aunt and cousin's fault these things happened and they were punished for it"
 

Chumly

Member
The biggest thing that pisses me off about an arms race is that it's the biggest fucking waste of money. There are so many better things we could be "wasting" money on but having another hundred nukes is not fucking going to do anything
 

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
If you follow the normal cyclical nature of the US economy, we are due for at least a market crash around June/July of this year.
How are you so certain?

I'm kind of hoping the market crash (I agree that one should be expected in the next year or two) holds off till 2018 so that it has a stronger effect on mid-term voting.

It's actually something I had been concerned about if Hillary had won.
Yup, the only good thing about this election. I was figuring Hillary would have been a one term if elected.

It's like 100 new moons and then, boom, recession. It's in every economic textbook. Set your lunar clock to it.
Does anybody have economic boom suggestions? It's the only thing I hate about arguing politics is that I litterally know nothing about the fiscal side. I can argue philosophically all day about policies.
This ain't a scene, it's an arms race...

We are so, so, SO fucked. Recession and another Cold War looming.
That song is good live.

Whose the Cold War with...China? We all buddy with Putin now.
The biggest thing that pisses me off about an arms race is that it's the biggest fucking waste of money. There are so many better things we could be "wasting" money on but having another hundred nukes is not fucking going to do anything
It's just dangerous. There's no point having the ability to kill the earth 100 times and not only 10 times over, the end point is the same.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Whose the Cold War with...China? We all buddy with Putin now.

Depends. From an ideological and philosophical point-of-view, China seems ripe. Their weird communist/socialist take on capitalism, plus issues with trade, would seem to make them the next Cold War enemy. Militarily, it could actually be China and Russia, though. The militarisation of the South China Sea is going to destabilise the region, and they may use Japan's recent military changes as an excuse to do something really nutty. Even if they don't, though, Trump is going to antagonise China even more, and they have nukes, so...

I mention Russia there, though, because I think the GOP and their base are going to have a realisation sooner rather than later that Putin is playing them. That he's using the partisan divide and Republican hatred of Hillary to drive a wedge into national security issues (which he's mostly already done), and then shift his attention to expansion in Europe. The US doesn't want to play any part in this, but I think all-of-a-sudden the GOP will realise what Putin's game is - divide US, destabilise Europe, then destabilise US - and it'll very quickly swing back to the US/Russia Cold War of old.

Trump is literally the worst person for this, because he's shown he only cares about the immediate future, not the long-game.

It's just dangerous. There's no point having the ability to kill the earth 100 times and not only 10 times over, the end point is the same.

There is a kind-of reason for more nukes, but only up to a point. Have, say, 10 nukes and you can only have (at most) 10 launch-points for a nuclear attack/counter-attack. But 100 nukes gives you the possibility for 100 launch-points. Seriously, though, the US already has over 1000, I believe, so, yeah, more is pointless.
 
I think Putin realizes he can destabilize the US & Europe at the same time.

He's smart enough to know that California has been essentially acting like a sovereign state on matters like Climate Change. He's probably already seen it action.

He's patient enough to just continue chiseling away at that piece, knowing that if he pushes hard enough, and if Trump pushes hard enough, it might just break off.

That's probably the end game with his shenanigans. He's certainly smart enough to see it through. It fits his playbook of sponsoring breakaway states.
 

kirblar

Member
This is a terrible way of trying to predict a recession.
Generally we've tended to have one around every 8-12 years so, we're pretty much due. Megan McArdle was convinced that a Hillary win would end up a pyrrhic victory for Dems because of this probability (as a GOP wave in 2020 would screw the Dems on redisticting hard) and I don't think she's wrong about that.

We just have to hope Trump doesn't nuke Denmark in the meantime.
 
With his Twitter nuke talk, it may be a bit too on-the-nose (if judged by the band-name alone).

Megadeth is an anti-nuclear war band though!

The name could be a nod to his pro-nuclear annihilation base and the music played could be a reassurance to "I don't want to die in a pointless nuclear war" people.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I'm pretty shocked that Trump hasn't booked Megadeth to play at his inauguration.

They're one of the few great bands that actually supports Trump.
Only if they play Countdown to Extinction over and over. It's pretty apt.

Edit: Actually, I meant Symphony of Destruction. Same album and both work well in this case.

You take a mortal man
And put him in control
Watch him become a god
Watch people's heads a'roll
A'roll, a' roll

Just like the Pied Piper
Led rats through the streets
We dance like marionettes
Swaying to the symphony
Of destruction
 
I think Putin realizes he can destabilize the US & Europe at the same time.

He's smart enough to know that California has been essentially acting like a sovereign state on matters like Climate Change. He's probably already seen it action.

He's patient enough to just continue chiseling away at that piece, knowing that if he pushes hard enough, and if Trump pushes hard enough, it might just break off.

That's probably the end game with his shenanigans. He's certainly smart enough to see it through. It fits his playbook of sponsoring breakaway states.

Even with Russian hooliganism, I really can't see any real scenario where Cali, or any other state for that matter, breaking off from America. That would require a constitutional amendment, and I don't see that happening.
 
Only if they play Countdown to Extinction over and over. It's pretty apt.

Edit: Actually, I meant Symphony of Destruction. Same album and both work well in this case.

"Countdown to Extinction" would be great to troll Uday and Qusay since it's about canned hunts.

"Polaris" would probably be a good song to play. Trump would be impressed by a song that takes the perspective of a nuclear weapon.
 
This is so unbelievably callous, even if you believe we should've dropped the bomb.

Like seriously. Dropping the bomb may or may not have been the right thing to do (personally, I think it was), but it should never be regarded as an easy choice. It's something to agonize over, and for god's sake, it's not something you diminish the consequences of. Man's family got burned alive, and this chump can't hold his damn tongue?

The trademark trait of conservatives is always going to be their utter lack of empathy.
 

FyreWulff

Member
This anti-free trade stuff has been really academic bullshit that has had no political consequences for a while now because no voter has given a shit about trade in decades. No one is ever going to be anti free trade again after inflation tears through the savings of the retired after Trump's trade trade either.

OLD PEOPLE VOTE MORE.

This focus on free trade feels more like people are trying to pump up their pet issue because now it's in the spotlight instead of talking about stuff that would be useful politically or economically.

Yeah, I've always felt the genie has been out of the bottle on that one.
 

Odrion

Banned
no one is killing donald trump, he's going to be our president.

christ, hop on over to the acceptance stage already

edit: is black lives matter making any sort of moves to establish themselves in the dnc like the socialists are?

because they should. it's arguably the best time they have in recent history to do so.
 
no one is killing donald trump, he's going to be our president.

christ, hop on over to the acceptance stage already

edit: is black lives matter making any sort of moves to establish themselves in the dnc like the socialists are?

because they should. it's arguably the best time they have in recent history to do so.
white liberals will take issue with this since BLM has effectively spooked white america more than any organization in the past few decades.

at least we can say black americans are very good at activism and spreading their message.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
no one is killing donald trump, he's going to be our president.

christ, hop on over to the acceptance stage already

edit: is black lives matter making any sort of moves to establish themselves in the dnc like the socialists are?

because they should. it's arguably the best time they have in recent history to do so.
No one honestly believes it, but it's "funny" to imagine Pence step over to the sizzling bodies of Trump and Roberts from the booby trapped electric bible and reveal he was the big bad the whole time. Evil Villain Monologue!
 

pigeon

Banned
I mean alternately maybe we should accept that time is unidirectional, unions are dead and poor white people love racism and just focus on winning the sun belt and the states that were very close but underinvested in by getting people who are disappointed with trump

If they're not disappointed by 2020 then we probably can't win anyway
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
white liberals will take issue with this since BLM has effectively spooked white america more than any organization in the past few decades.

at least we can say black americans are very good at activism and spreading their message.

A lot of people (generally white liberals) are also blaming the loss on the Democrats focus on social issues.

I mean alternately maybe we should accept that time is unidirectional, unions are dead and poor white people love racism and just focus on winning the sun belt and the states that were very close but underinvested in by getting people who are disappointed with trump

If they're not disappointed by 2020 then we probably can't win anyway

The rust belt has been trending away from the Democrats for a while now, we've all talked about it at length before so it's not something people have just hit on after the campaign.
 
NC hasn't really swung D by very much since 2008, I don't think it will be more in reach than the upper Midwestern states that flipped this year. It also isn't 2019 yet so we probably shouldn't obsess with it until at least after midterms.
 

Trouble

Banned
So this is our winning map for 2020?


I can dig it.

AZ will probably still be a long stretch in 2020.

NC has way too much GOP fuckery going on to make that a required state.

I don't know why people are acting like MI, WI and PA are irredeemable. All 3 of those states were won with slim margins.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
AZ will probably still be a long stretch in 2020.

NC has way too much GOP fuckery going on to make that a required state.

I don't know why people are acting like MI, WI and PA are irredeemable. All 3 of those states were won with slim margins.

Plus Florida scares me. Everything I've heard about the Dem machine in Florida says they did their job and got out all the voters they wanted to and we still lost it due to the insane rural turnout. Unless we can suppress that turnout there's no winning there anymore, you can't squeeze anymore blood from that stone.
 

dakini

Member
Why do you think Maine and New Hampshire will swing to Trump? If Hillary was able to take them (except ME-2) than I don't think the next Democrat will have any problem there.

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that NH and ME were gradually trending toward the GOP. I could be wrong tho.
 
Plus Florida scares me. Everything I've heard about the Dem machine in Florida says they did their job and got out all the voters they wanted to and we still lost it due to the insane rural turnout. Unless we can suppress that turnout there's no winning there anymore, you can't squeeze anymore blood from that stone.

Florida grew over 1.3 million in population between 2012 to 2016. I think with that kind of explosive growth, it was somewhat expected for both parties to do better than their predecessors from 2012. If Trump does disappoint, then I can see his turnout looking worse, or that he only does slightly better in 2020 than 2016 in raw votes. And if Democrats push a well liked candidate like Obama, then they might be able to win. Look at the huge improvement Obama did in Florida compared to Kerry in 2004. It's possible.
 
Florida grew over 1.3 million in population between 2012 to 2016. I think with that kind of explosive growth, it was somewhat expected for both parties to do better than their predecessors from 2012. If Trump does disappoint, then I can see his turnout looking worse, or that he only does slightly better in 2020 than 2016 in raw votes. And if Democrats push a well liked candidate like Obama, then they might be able to win. Look at the huge improvement Obama did in Florida compared to Kerry in 2004. It's possible.
It's possible, but banking on it while giving up on the state we lost by 8k votes seems like a bad idea.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

The big loss yesterday for Israel in the United Nations will make it much harder to negotiate peace.Too bad, but we will get it done anyway!
4:33 PM · Dec 24, 2016

Poor Israel not being able to encroach on an entire nation of people's land/
 

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

The big loss yesterday for Israel in the United Nations will make it much harder to negotiate peace.Too bad, but we will get it done anyway!
4:33 PM · Dec 24, 2016

Poor Israel not being able to encroach on an entire nation of people's land/
it's not israels fault that the Palestine people won't leave their homeland!
 

mo60

Member
Banking on AZ would be a huge mistake.

If the dems can win maricopa county by enough they can win the state. It won't take much to win the state now.

Also the democrats can still win maine without ME-2. All they need to do to win the state is to strengthen their hold on ME-1. Hilary won ME-1 by like 15 points in this election if I recall while trump won ME-2 by 11 points. They can also keep NH as long as turnout in the urban areas is high enough.
 
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