• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

Status
Not open for further replies.
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trouble said:
AZ will probably still be a long stretch in 2020.

NC has way too much GOP fuckery going on to make that a required state.

I don't know why people are acting like MI, WI and PA are irredeemable. All 3 of those states were won with slim margins.
Click to expand...

They aren't irredeemable. Still, population transition and brain drain should worry democrats. Michigan is super red in their rural areas and the cities are losing people.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
dakini said:
So this is our winning map for 2020?


I can dig it.
Click to expand...
Frankly if we win the next election we very likely get WI/MI/PA back. I'll hold off a final verdict until the midterms though.

Best I could see without getting too crazy is Hillary's map plus those three and FL/NC/AZ. That puts the Democrat at 333. Maybe the second Maine and Nebraska districts as well.

Ohio and Iowa for the next couple of cycles will be what Missouri and Indiana were until recently - states that could conceivably go Democratic in a wave, but otherwise pretty red. I'm willing to write off a 1-point GOP win as a fluke in those other states, 10-point GOP win suggests something's up. Obama's popularity masked those states' right-wing shift.

Texas and Georgia will keep on... Texas and Georgia-ing. Maybe someday.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
They aren't irredeemable. Still, population transition and brain drain should worry democrats. Michigan is super red in their rural areas and the cities are losing people.
Click to expand...

Being super red in its rural areas is not a Michigan specific phenomena, though. The loss of population in the Detroit metro is more important to watch.

But neither of the three are Loooost Foreverrrrrr.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Plinko said:
They aren't irredeemable. Still, population transition and brain drain should worry democrats. Michigan is super red in their rural areas and the cities are losing people.
Click to expand...

Unless someone can fix Detroit that won't stop and that's no small undertaking, even if you have a competent government (which they currently do not).
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Gerry is having a rough Christmas.

C0cAeMOWQAAvZus.jpg
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Pakistan's defense minister threatened to nuke Israel after the minister read a fake news story written by some rando Russian troll that doesn't even understand grammar.

A fake news article led to gunfire at a Washington pizzeria three weeks ago. Now it seems that another fake news story has prompted the defense minister of Pakistan to threaten to go nuclear.

The defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, wrote a saber-rattling Twitter post directed at Israel on Friday after a false report — which the minister apparently believed — that Israel had threatened Pakistan with nuclear weapons. Both countries have nuclear arsenals.

“Israeli def min threatens nuclear retaliation presuming pak role in Syria against Daesh,” the minister wrote on his official Twitter account, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. “Israel forgets Pakistan is a Nuclear state too.”

Mr. Asif appeared to be reacting to a fake news article published on awdnews.com.

That story, with the typo-laden headline “Israeli Defense Minister: If Pakistan send ground troops to Syria on any pretext, we will destroy this country with a nuclear attack,” appeared on the website on Dec. 20, alongside articles with headlines like “Clinton is staging a military coup against Trump.”

The fake story about Israel even misidentified the country’s defense minister, attributing quotations to a former minister, Moshe Yaalon. Israel’s current minister of defense is Avigdor Lieberman.

The Israeli Defense Ministry responded on Twitter to say the report was fictitious.

“The statement attributed to fmr Def Min Yaalon re Pakistan was never said,” the ministry wrote in Twitter post directed at Mr. Asif. The Israeli ministry added in a second post: "Reports referred to by the Pakistani Def Min are entirely false.”
Click to expand...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/24/w...er=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I'm glad that Donald Trump and Michael Flynn are now in command of nuclear weapons so misunderstandings like this couldn't happen in America.
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Pakistan's defense minister threatened to nuke Israel after the minister read a fake news story written by some rando Russian troll that doesn't even understand grammar.



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/24/w...er=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I'm glad that Donald Trump and Michael Flynn are now in command of nuclear weapons so misunderstandings like this couldn't happen in America.
Click to expand...

Propaganda 2.0: Bigger, Bolder, and Less Attribution Than Ever!
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm just sad for a world in which world class propagandists can have their jobs taken by a rando 14 year old who doesn't even know the language they're writing in. More job loss from globalization, smh.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, if we can outsource the jobs of dear leaders the world over to impressionable 14 year olds with equally bad hair...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
Being super red in its rural areas is not a Michigan specific phenomena, though. The loss of population in the Detroit metro is more important to watch.

But neither of the three are Loooost Foreverrrrrr.
Click to expand...

I meant that they are growing further red, and it is spreading into the cities.

Obviously rural areas in most states are super red.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
When Trump said he wanted to restart the arms race, I'm not sure why everyone assumed he was attacking Russia. In all his comments, he never mentioned Russia directly. I think it was aimed at small rogue states like North Korea.

The fact that within 24 hours he released the love letter he received from Putin and quoted Putin on twitter attacking Clinton/Democrats, in my opinion shows he wanted to make sure he still appeared a strong ally of Russia after media reports starting out that he was attacking Russia with his nuke comments.

Someday someone is going to write an amazing book about what's actually happening behind the scenes right now.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Flynn is like that general in Dr Strangelove. Precious bodily fluids and all.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Third Strike said:
Why do you think Maine and New Hampshire will swing to Trump? If Hillary was able to take them (except ME-2) than I don't think the next Democrat will have any problem there.
Click to expand...

From my experience working on the campaign in NH, I would say that it's unlikely NH will go for Trump in 4 years for a few reasons:

1) The new NH Governor is going to piss off some rural voters when he gives the go ahead for Northern Pass

2) Those up around Berlin who went to Trump due to lost paper mill jobs are not going to be happy when Trump fails to bring back those jobs

3) One of the things NH is known for is its fairly decent education. It's one of the reasons Bernie did so well in NH (lots of teachers that loved his focus on education) and one of this issues that Democrats were able to use to beat Kelly Ayotte in spite the Red Wave of 2016. GOP will inevitably fuck up with education and it will piss off those in NH.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
US_State_population_Web.jpg


Maine and Michigan are at risk for going complete red. No one has been able to fix Detroit. Obama saved a few thousand union jobs in Dearborn area. But everyone is fleeing Michigan because it's a shitty place with no work, especially the young people. Maine is Maine. You either in the Lobster business or you aint. Hillary wont Maine by less than 3%. Places with little to no population growth and population decline are going to be hard-fought battles for democrats. It's high time we started allocating resources in new battlegrounds: AZ, GA. Continue focusing on NC and FL. If we capture NC and FL as lean blue in the future and show a strong showing in AZ and GA, we can say fuck off to Rust Belt. And Maine.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
RustyNails said:
US_State_population_Web.jpg


Maine and Michigan are at risk for going complete red. No one has been able to fix Detroit. Obama saved a few thousand union jobs in Dearborn area. But everyone is fleeing Michigan because it's a shitty place with no work, especially the young people. Maine is Maine. You either in the Lobster business or you aint. Hillary wont Maine by less than 3%. Places with little to no population growth and population decline are going to be hard-fought battles for democrats. It's high time we started allocating resources in new battlegrounds: AZ, GA. Continue focusing on NC and FL. If we capture NC and FL as lean blue in the future and show a strong showing in AZ and GA, we can say fuck off to Rust Belt. And Maine.
Click to expand...

Yep. Been preaching this for over a year now. GOP control of government has destroyed Michigan. Beautiful in places, but not worth living in. Job market isn't great. Highest insurance rates in the country. You pay exorbitant amounts to heat your home or get electricity. Smart people are leaving the moment they get a chance.
 
D

Diablos

Member
I can't see how the Dems win back the WH until 2024 at least. The population shifts are bad enough. On top of that the party is in horrible shape.

What did the GOP do to MI to make gas and electricity so costly?
 
F

Finalizer

Member
Diablos said:
I can't see how the Dems win back the WH until 2024 at least. The population shifts are bad enough. On top of that the party is in horrible shape.
Click to expand...

The WH is probably the biggest wildcard. Really depends on what the hell Trump actually ends up doing for the next four years. I could easily see him pissing off his base royally once its clear that he wont make due on his promises; or he could fuck up so colossally that he gets impeached, leaving a split between the diehard Trumpeteers and the rest of the Republicans. I suppose one of the biggest questions this election is whether those rural voters that turned out in droves for Trump this election are reliable, or just came along for Trump's wild ride.

Agreed with RustyNails' assessment. I think the population shifts could work out well enough - it's not like WI, PA, and MI are totally unrecoverable, but I think Dems really need to try to make strides in GA & AZ to make up for inevitable losses going down the road. Not sure if Maine is really gonna be permanently lost in the near future or if that hard shift is just part of a temporary Trump wave. FL and NC... Ugh.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Diablos said:
I can't see how the Dems win back the WH until 2024 at least. The population shifts are bad enough. On top of that the party is in horrible shape.

What did the GOP do to MI to make gas and electricity so costly?
Click to expand...

3 scenarios, only one of which Trump wins.

1) No economic contractions before 2020, filibuster survives all four years, GOP gets very little done at the federal beyond symbolic victories, some tax cuts and light deregulation, and undermining the government-funded parts of Obamacare further. This scenario repeats 2016 electorally. The bounceback in gas prices helps spin the idea that carbon energy=jobs and solidifies their grip on the shale-rich rust belt.

2) Good economic conditions, but the filibuster is dropped. Voters who lost their healthcare (elderly, veterans, poor, and others) rebuke the GOP nationally in 2020, but especially the President.

3) Significant economic downturn which shatters Trump's image.

I don't see a scenario where the GOP gets what they want, policy-wise, *and* win in 2020.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Diablos said:
I can't see how the Dems win back the WH until 2024 at least. The population shifts are bad enough. On top of that the party is in horrible shape.

What did the GOP do to MI to make gas and electricity so costly?
Click to expand...

That was just listed as a reason why people are leaving.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Merry Christmas, it might be the first sex scandal of the Trump administration! Jason Miller was announced for communications director two days ago and then stepped down today possibly because:

Trump camp in meltdown. Miller resigns after AJ Delgado posts cryptic tweets re Miller being dad to her child.
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/812801720426315776

C0fcHFQXEAQizou.jpg


Delgado may just be referring to Miller's wife expecting, but Delgado also deleted her account just now so!
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
RustyNails said:
US_State_population_Web.jpg


Maine and Michigan are at risk for going complete red. No one has been able to fix Detroit. Obama saved a few thousand union jobs in Dearborn area. But everyone is fleeing Michigan because it's a shitty place with no work, especially the young people. Maine is Maine. You either in the Lobster business or you aint. Hillary wont Maine by less than 3%. Places with little to no population growth and population decline are going to be hard-fought battles for democrats. It's high time we started allocating resources in new battlegrounds: AZ, GA. Continue focusing on NC and FL. If we capture NC and FL as lean blue in the future and show a strong showing in AZ and GA, we can say fuck off to Rust Belt. And Maine.
Click to expand...

At the same time, population decline in Maine and Michigan will lead to less electoral votes for them.
 
B

BreezyLimbo

Banned
would it be illegal if dems somehow managed to fund a 'move to red swing state' movement in California as long as they vote Dem

just spitballing here. California is assuredly blue for the long haul, and we have millions of people here. Like what if we moved 1 million people to PA, WI, etc. etc. so they would turn blue for the near future.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
BreezyLimbo said:
would it be illegal if dems somehow managed to fund a 'move to red swing state' movement in California as long as they vote Dem

just spitballing here. California is assuredly blue for the long haul, and we have millions of people here. Like what if we moved 1 million people to PA, WI, etc. etc. so they would turn blue for the near future.
Click to expand...

I'm leery of any idea that resembles the Free State Project.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
BreezyLimbo said:
would it be illegal if dems somehow managed to fund a 'move to red swing state' movement in California as long as they vote Dem

just spitballing here. California is assuredly blue for the long haul, and we have millions of people here. Like what if we moved 1 million people to PA, WI, etc. etc. so they would turn blue for the near future.
Click to expand...

Yes, that is actually illegal, unfortunately :(
 
B

BreezyLimbo

Banned
Ogodei said:
I'm leery of any idea that resembles the Free State Project.
Click to expand...

I'll have to look that up..

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Yes, that is actually illegal, unfortunately :(
Click to expand...

bleh. It seem slike Cali and New York in particular are becoming 'havens' for liberals, and they're leaving red/swing states to live over here(Since alot of jobs are also concentrated here).

Florida had a shocking rural turn out that makes me feel that's a while away, and Texas, whilst it has jobs, doesn't seem to be a place where LIberals would move to live, so that's...a while away. Arizona is well..it's not a swing state.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
BUT, if we had a group of people that went to the homes of rich environmentalists and encouraged them to move to Alaska, that might work if you didn't say you were doing just for election purposes.

lol

If Cubans feel like they're no longer white under Trump, Florida will swing to D+4. We need to convince Cubans that their well-being is at stake...

Also, I need 60 volunteers, someone tell me how to round up volunteers.
 
B

BreezyLimbo

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
BUT, if we had a group of people that went to the homes of rich environmentalists and encouraged them to move to Alaska, that might work if you didn't say you were doing just for election purposes.

lol

If Cubans feel like they're no longer white under Trump, it will swing to D+4. We need to convince Cubans that they may suffer from discrimination.
Click to expand...

That's right, isn't the Cuban population in Florida highly conservative? I don't blame them seeing as how Cuba was...for more or less, the extreme Left as a dictatorship, but right now we're in a place where the Right is heading towards that path, funnily enough.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Maybe the Democrats just need to finance a bunch of Progressive Retreats to Wisconsin for Californians as a subtle way to encourage them to move. Keith Ellison hire me?
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Finalizer said:
The WH is probably the biggest wildcard. Really depends on what the hell Trump actually ends up doing for the next four years. I could easily see him pissing off his base royally once its clear that he wont make due on his promises; or he could fuck up so colossally that he gets impeached, leaving a split between the diehard Trumpeteers and the rest of the Republicans. I suppose one of the biggest questions this election is whether those rural voters that turned out in droves for Trump this election are reliable, or just came along for Trump's wild ride.

Agreed with RustyNails' assessment. I think the population shifts could work out well enough - it's not like WI, PA, and MI are totally unrecoverable, but I think Dems really need to try to make strides in GA & AZ to make up for inevitable losses going down the road. Not sure if Maine is really gonna be permanently lost in the near future or if that hard shift is just part of a temporary Trump wave. FL and NC... Ugh.
Click to expand...

I doubt Maine will go red soon considering how much everyone in Maine hates Le Page.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
What we really need to do is convince hipsters that the next community that needs gentrifying is small-town America. You've seen urban farming, now see extraurban farming!

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Merry Christmas, it might be the first sex scandal of the Trump administration! Jason Miller was announced for communications director two days ago and then stepped down today possibly because:



https://twitter.com/yashar/status/812801720426315776

C0fcHFQXEAQizou.jpg


Delgado may just be referring to Miller's wife expecting, but Delgado also deleted her account just now so!
Click to expand...

Well that didn't take long.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
What we really need to do is convince hipsters that the next community that needs gentrifying is small-town America. You've seen urban farming, now see extraurban farming!



Well that didn't take long.
Click to expand...

I don't know if hipsters vote though.

Maybe we could get some "it's time to gentrify Iowa!" going though, might as well try.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
With the EC system, failed red states could go after successful blue states. So even when the economic incentive for those states to pull on their bootstraps are clear they'll use the law to get handouts from the productive blue states.

How ironic.

But pride will probably just make them sabotage blue states and get nothing in return, just a big frustration movement. You already got a glimpse of this now.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Merry Christmas, it might be the first sex scandal of the Trump administration! Jason Miller was announced for communications director two days ago and then stepped down today possibly because:



https://twitter.com/yashar/status/812801720426315776

C0fcHFQXEAQizou.jpg


Delgado may just be referring to Miller's wife expecting, but Delgado also deleted her account just now so!
Click to expand...
If his wife is expecting, why the sudden resignation? Wouldn't he want to cement his job further if his family is expecting a kid.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
RustyNails said:
If his wife is expecting, why the sudden resignation? Wouldn't he want to cement his job further if his family is expecting a kid.
Click to expand...

Miller almost surely resigned because of some scandal. His wife is expecting, but it's just uncertain what exactly the scandal that took Miller down was. Him fucking Delgado in that strip club after the Vegas debate and impregnating her would be a pretty tasty scandal though.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Bringing Dune Awakening to the Xbox Series S will be a "challenge", according to Funcom chief product officer
News 2 3
100
5K
mdkirby replied
First time you realized Japanese devs were GOAT?
Drama Retro Game Dev 2 3
118
4K
Spukc replied
Modern Game Devs Suck at Community Support
2
60
3K
Reizo Ryuu replied
Players are now less "accepting" that games will be fixed, say Paradox, after "underestimating" the reaction to Cities: Skylines 2's performance woes
Game Dev
47
2K
Quantum253 replied
Get well soon, @Ultrazilla
37
2K
EviLore replied
Top Bottom