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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Is he tweeting while getting briefed. I wouldn't be surprised. What a bellend.
Poor GRIMES
Banned
Oh man, Kellyanne on CNN right now, Cuomo isn't giving her an inch
He won the presidency. Who cares about the popular vote?
balladofwindfishes
Member
diablos991 is not a younger millennial. In fact, Diablos, he's probably closer to your age than mine.
D991 is someone stuck in the world of the early 60s and 70s who thinks you can work a full time job, and go to school full time and not have any debt at all.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Pretty good. The off party generally makes big gains in midterms. Despite how counter productive it is, voters love when the president and congress are opposite parties. Because apparently "better laws get passed with the compromises needed to work together" is what I was taught in school.
Trump does. It's like a scab he has to pick at constantly.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
It's a constant wound on his ego. Should be picked at every opportunity.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Senate is unlikely just because of the seats that are up. They'd have to keep all of theirs and gain AZ/NV + another state, with no really good options (Texas probably being the best, which should tell you how much of an uphill battle it is).
However, the Red State Dems are running in the best possible environment. They all would have been toast if Hillary had won - this gives them a much better chance of holding on. The realistic optimist in me is hoping that we break even (lose 1-2 red state Dems, gain AZ/NV) and look towards 2020 to clean up.
(As a theoretical aside, winning the presidency in 2020 would actually set up for for a not-horrible midterm in 2022, given how poorly Democrats performed this year in the Senate. At least compared to 2010 and 2014.)
teruterubozu
Member
2018 is probably gonna be the worst turnout ever, which doesn't bode well for Dems. After this past election I can't see many people getting excited to hit the voting booth again for awhile.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Historically, this isn't true. Midterms are when the not presidential party turns out to take back some power. Democrat turnout will probably be surprisingly high for a midterm in response to Trump and the GOP.
Voters don't like absolute power of one party. They never have. They never will. The Democrats are walking in 2018 with a huge advantage.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So only 20-some % of people are in favor of repealing Obamacare, and of that group, 60% want repeal and replace immediately.
Please proceed, GOP.
Except that "advantage" is completely eliminated due to gerrymandering and voter restriction laws.
Please proceed, GOP.
Except that "advantage" is completely eliminated due to gerrymandering and voter restriction laws.
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
Dropping the subsidies alone would ruin the program for anyone making less than $25k a year, which is about 42-44% of the country. It's bad enough so many states never got the medicaid expansion.
Even if Congress doesn't do a full repeal, they can still cut enough away that it will collapse upon itself. Millions of people will lose insurance and jobs overnight.
Then there's pants-on-head crazy shit like this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...d3fa950f2fd_story.html?utm_term=.bcf302b6d7a5
Maybe it's fake news.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
From that article:
We've hit a point where these guys are saying, "Those monetary figures aren't real--just symbolic." They're "fake news"-ing bills now.
Amazing how this "dramatic reversal" happened. Wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that the RNC was hacked and now people have all the dirt on all these guys.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Source? A bunch of R+5 districts are absolutely obtainable in a wave election with an unpopular president. Which is just about every midterm ever, with a couple exceptions due to extraordinary circumstances.
The advtange might be diminished, but it is definitely not "completely eliminated." It's like people don't remember 2006 at all.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I don't even think you need an unpopular president for an off-president party wave. 2010 is a good example of that.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
The thing that sucks most for Dems in 2018 is the Senate map:
They're gonna be on the defense. Tell me what red states can they realistically pick off from that map? Nevada maybe.
They're gonna be on the defense. Tell me what red states can they realistically pick off from that map? Nevada maybe.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I look at that map and think there's a silver lining to Trump winning because the Democrats now defend that map as the opposition party, which makes it a lot more likely they'll keep those seats.
Had Hillary been president, 2018 would have been a blood bath for Democrats. 2020 would likely look like 2016 on steroids for GOP control.
Had Hillary been president, 2018 would have been a blood bath for Democrats. 2020 would likely look like 2016 on steroids for GOP control.
The thing that sucks most for Dems in 2018 is the Senate map:
They're gonna be on the defense. Tell me what red states can they realistically pick off from that map? Nevada maybe.
I'd worry less about what red states they could pick up and more about what blue states they can lose.
Orly?
If the Dems and Dem-leaning activist groups do their job then they'll be hammering home how awful Trump and the GOP administration is. Add-in the media, who will also be pushing against Trump, and I think the 2018 turn-out will absolutely be out of this world.Carpe Libertatem
Member
Yeah, if Hillary had squeaked out victories in the Rust Belt and the Senate stayed the same, the GOP would have been looking at possibly 60 seats after the 2018 elections.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/817386622299705349
Schwarzenegger's classy response to Trump.
Schwarzenegger's classy response to Trump.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Can you imagine had Hillary won, but the GOP got a Veto Proof/Filibuster proof majority in 2018? She'd be completely powerless to do anything at all, the GOP would have total, unregulated power, while Hillary gets the blame for all of their terrible bills.
Piiiiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssssssssssss... Subscribed to the New Yorker just a couple of weeks ago. :'(
Nah. It's a testament to Anna Wintour that she can waltz in, tell Trump to do something, and he does it lol
I wouldn't worry about those publications.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
With what they have in place now and what they'll have power to do over the next 2 years, I have no doubt that "advantage" will be greatly diminished or, yes, completely eliminated.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The federal government doesn't have control over elections
Not exactly shocking, but still...
Unrelated:
Cecile Richards Addresses GOP Defunding Planned Parenthood in Facebook Live
Man I really hope dems can at least make some gains somewhere, I want Trump to have to deal with the obstruction that Obama had for the last 6 years.
teruterubozu
Member
Orly?
Hopefully Dems can come together by then, I just don't see it though. Lots of lingering resentment, pain and finger-pointing everywhere.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Like the GOP was in 2008? The GOP was a mess in 2008. Two elections in a row of crushing defeat, coming off an embarrassment of a president, with total Democrat control in the federal government.
A decade later they're the most successful political party in the history of the country.
teruterubozu
Member
Yeah thanks to the Tea Party. Maybe Dems can do something similar? Oh yeah, right....
balladofwindfishes
Member
Sitting around moping all day about how nobody will do anything is the fastest way to make sure nobody does anything.
The GOP didn't sit around in 2010 and have a pity party about how they were never going to win again, so why bother, it's hopeless, the party is doomed.
For being the party of supposed activists and human rights, Democrats really seem to not actually like doing any sort of activist work.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Democrats didn't go all in on ways to structurally disenfranchise GOP voters
I expect the GOP to
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Of course not. But they can enable state governments to disenfranchise voters.
You are reading too deeply into this. I certainly wasn't saying "we are doomed, hopeless," etc. Just that I think any so-called advantage will be snuffed out by what I mentioned above along with poor democratic messaging (which has been true on the local and state level for a decade now).
balladofwindfishes
Member
Good for them. That just gives the Democrats more energy to fight as hard as possible.
In the history of this country, the "good" vote has triumphed over impossible odds many, many, many times.
They need to wait a few more years for Obama's lower court appointments to retire. Which will probably be awhile, he managed to get quite a lot of them.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Literally doesn't matter. We saw it this election: courts struck down voter restriction laws and then there was no enforcement and local branches made no changes. This happened in Wisconsin I believe, I need to dig up the reporting
The state government putting the law on the books, even if it gets struck down, communicates to local voting operations "hey *wink* if you do this, we aren't going to come after you"
This is what we need to understand about the Trump/GOP machine for the next four years: laws mean jack shit if no-one enforces them, and no-one is going to bother enforcing them. Every type of corruption in Trump's cabinet could see the light of day and it would not matter because no-one will act
balladofwindfishes
Member
On voter suppression
NC should be a cautionary tale to the GOP that even with terrible voter suppression, if you go too far, you will lose.
And NC should be something for the "oh noes we'll never win due to voter suppression" crowd to look at and see that it's still entirely possible to win. Maybe not as big of a win, but enough to start grasping power back.
The GOP is going to step out of line and go too far. People support healthcare reform. People support gay marriage. People support legalized weed. The GOP will attempt to destroy all three. And they're going to get punished. And no amount of gerrymandering or voter suppression will help them if they touch Social Security. May god have mercy on their souls if Ryan gets his way with Medicare and SS.
NC should be a cautionary tale to the GOP that even with terrible voter suppression, if you go too far, you will lose.
And NC should be something for the "oh noes we'll never win due to voter suppression" crowd to look at and see that it's still entirely possible to win. Maybe not as big of a win, but enough to start grasping power back.
The GOP is going to step out of line and go too far. People support healthcare reform. People support gay marriage. People support legalized weed. The GOP will attempt to destroy all three. And they're going to get punished. And no amount of gerrymandering or voter suppression will help them if they touch Social Security. May god have mercy on their souls if Ryan gets his way with Medicare and SS.
How true is that in North Carolina?
:edit:
Should have r/f before I posted. You already got on it.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
You know, the "In case you missed it..." section of twitter sometimes puts Trump's tweets out of order for me, so sometimes its even harder to understand what he is trying to say.
teruterubozu
Member
I always like how these things become a personal attack about one's motivation level. Who says I'm moping all day?
Veritigo_X
Member
Him not numbering his tweets 1/x is going to cause an international crisis at some point.
The key is Obamacare. For years Republicans have allowed their extreme hate of a black President drive their unrealistic rhetoric about a law which, by and large, has improved the health care system and the lives of many Americans. It's not perfect, but it's certainly not a disaster, and election results don't the change that fact there is nothing better to the right of it. Repealing it without a replacement will create a catastrophic health crisis in this country the likes of which we have never seen. A conservative replacement would be almost as bad, since contrary to their lies, it won't result in "lower prices and greater choice", it will do the exact opposite.
I don't know if they ever expected to be in full control of government again, or maybe they really did believe their lies that the law would "collapse on it's own", but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place now. Repeal or make major changes to how it works in a conservative direction and face major backlash as healthcare in this country becomes significantly worse. Or, fail to pass any major changes to it and be raked over the coals by their own base whom they've been lying to for years. The key for Democrats is to obstruct every single change they attempt to make, don't throw them a lifeline with votes towards stop-gap measures, and make sure they own the aftermath.
I don't know if they ever expected to be in full control of government again, or maybe they really did believe their lies that the law would "collapse on it's own", but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place now. Repeal or make major changes to how it works in a conservative direction and face major backlash as healthcare in this country becomes significantly worse. Or, fail to pass any major changes to it and be raked over the coals by their own base whom they've been lying to for years. The key for Democrats is to obstruct every single change they attempt to make, don't throw them a lifeline with votes towards stop-gap measures, and make sure they own the aftermath.
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