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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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G

Gruco

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Keep trying to win the Sun Belt too? Again, Georgia was closer than Ohio.
Click to expand...

This is an important point. The election distribution is so interesting. We won all of the Atlanta suburbs! Not by much in most cases so Atlanta still wasn't enough to offset the rest of the state. But this is analogous to what we saw when VA and CO started trending blue. Not clear to what extent this is part of a trend vs an anti-Trump vote. Good sign though.

====

In other news, Kate McKinnon is a national treasure.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
Heh.

q3d81CJ.png
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Gruco said:
This is an important point. The election distribution is so interesting. We won all of the Atlanta suburbs! Not by much in most cases so Atlanta still wasn't enough to offset the rest of the state. But this is analogous to what we saw when VA and CO started trending blue. Not clear to what extent this is part of a trend vs an anti-Trump vote. Good sign though.

====

In other news, Kate McKinnon is a national treasure.
Click to expand...

Nope nope nope all my tears. All my tears.
 
K

Kid Heart

Member
Gruco said:
This is an important point. The election distribution is so interesting. We won all of the Atlanta suburbs! Not by much in most cases so Atlanta still wasn't enough to offset the rest of the state. But this is analogous to what we saw when VA and CO started trending blue. Not clear to what extent this is part of a trend vs an anti-Trump vote. Good sign though.

====

In other news, Kate McKinnon is a national treasure.
Click to expand...

Texas was also under double digits. The news isn't entirely awful from this election.

Also, I needed that video right about now.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Totakeke said:
Heh.

q3d81CJ.png
Click to expand...

This is a weird dynamic, but I think it might be important.

Trump needs attention and flattery. Thrives off of it.

The campaign gave him everything. The rallies weren't just campaign events. They were life.

This is someone who now has to live in DC, where he got no votes and is publicly reviled, or travel home on the weekends (wtf, seriously, how did he never have this conversation) to NYC, where he is publicly reviled.

This isn't Bush, who was happy in Crawford. This isn't Romney or McCain, who were acceptable to high society. Trump's campaign was designed to antagonize city-dwellers. This is the guy who got booed at the Al Smith Dinner. Who wants and needs the approval of high society. And who needs to be loved. The public in his back yard has every intent to show how untrue this is.

His rally outlet? I expect he'll want them back in his life. But he won't be the outsider anymore. He'll be the guy who lied about bringing the factories back. Can the crowds turn on him there too?

Anyway, given his personality, it's a volatile/potentially horrifying mix.

Debirudog said:
I'm actually suspecting some of them are just astroturfers to keep splitting us apart.
Click to expand...

It's possible. But I know some IRL who are this pissed right now. I'm not even trying to talk to them because there is a lot of steam everyone needs to blow off. But, maybe. Assume good faith until if can no longer be assumed, I guess.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Debirudog said:
I'm actually suspecting some of them are just astroturfers to keep splitting us apart.
Click to expand...

Someone in another thread made a similar point. I PM'd him asking him to send a mod his suspicions so they could look into it.

It's fucking sad that's something we have to worry about :(
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
Man, these mass protests give me life.

I really want to know what high ranking Republicans are thinking right now. Are they happy? Are they shook that the entire democratic party is mobilized as fuck before Trump has even set foot in office?
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Random thought: do we have new lessons to draw from 2000? It feels like the old explanation of "Gore ran away from Clinton" is largely invalidated. Is the only answer that Gore was too boring and got painted as being the same as Bush, same as Hillary and Trump?
 
T

Totakeke

Member
hipsterpants said:
Man, these mass protests give me life.

I really want to know what high ranking Republicans are thinking right now. Are they happy? Are they shook that the entire democratic party is mobilized as fuck before Trump has even set foot in office?
Click to expand...

They're trapped. Those who denounced Trump during this election will not have the alt-right support and Steve Bannon will make that clear.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
hipsterpants said:
Man, these mass protests give me life.

I really want to know what high ranking Republicans are thinking right now. Are they happy? Are they shook that the entire democratic party is mobilized as fuck before Trump has even set foot in office?
Click to expand...

For real dude? Why would they care about these protests when they just won the house, the senate, the presidency and will now get to retain the supreme court. They are laughing all the way to the bank until these protests actually result in some negative consequences for them (I.E. they lose an election or two).

They didn't give a shit about the Occupy Wallstreet protests and that amounted to exactly nothing (and that was mostly Occupys fault for being so terribly run).
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Random thought: do we have new lessons to draw from 2000? It feels like the old explanation of "Gore ran away from Clinton" is largely invalidated. Is the only answer that Gore was too boring and got painted as being the same as Bush, same as Hillary and Trump?
Click to expand...

My lessons are "3rd terms are hard" and "technocrat heirs are often not great hype machines"

Also, "The media is full of lazy assholes who are terrified of being called biased by the right or being called out of touch so they go hilariously out of their way to make it look like they're not"
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
kirblar said:
No. Nerds. :(
Click to expand...
Maybe this is the only real answer. Gore made mistakes by putting too many of his eggs in the Florida basket, while Hillary stretched campaign resources too thin by going for states we weren't going to win. I guess it really just does come down to nerds forever losing. HW Bush was kind of the same but Dukakis had the personality of a brick AND received the brunt of one of the most negative campaigns ever with a largely terrible response.

...goddammit we're so bad at winning elections.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
hipsterpants said:
Man, these mass protests give me life.

I really want to know what high ranking Republicans are thinking right now. Are they happy? Are they shook that the entire democratic party is mobilized as fuck before Trump has even set foot in office?
Click to expand...
We better keep it up.

Pending any special elections (such as for MN-5 if Ellison does step down, I would wanna see Ellison's replacement win with like 80-90%). VA/NJ state elections will be our first test. If Democrats get their asses in gear they should be able to flip NJ's governor's seat and hold VA's. They could also bring VA's Senate to a tie or even a majority, while making up some ground in the House. NJ's legislature is pretty heavily Dem already but maybe we could max out our margins there.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Maybe this is the only real answer. Gore made mistakes by putting too many of his eggs in the Florida basket, while Hillary stretched campaign resources too thin by going for states we weren't going to win. I guess it really just does come down to nerds forever losing. HW Bush was kind of the same but Dukakis had the personality of a brick AND received the brunt of one of the most negative campaigns ever with a largely terrible response.

...goddammit we're so bad at winning elections.
Click to expand...
Look at the last 4 GOP presidents.

Reagan
H.W. Bush
Dubya
Trump

1 is a smart guy who actually did the right thing - Iraq, taxes, etc. (HW)
The others are all incompetent and dumb.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Do we have any potential great candidates coming up for the NJ and VA gubernatorial elections? NJ seems likely because of how terrible Christie is but I'm unfamiliar with the state politics of either. None of our senators seem interested in running there, though. Maybe Kaine will now that he's not running for VP?
 
J

jtb

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Random thought: do we have new lessons to draw from 2000? It feels like the old explanation of "Gore ran away from Clinton" is largely invalidated. Is the only answer that Gore was too boring and got painted as being the same as Bush, same as Hillary and Trump?
Click to expand...

No, I think that Obama's approval ratings were a little misleading. They improved as the campaign went on, because he was above the fray of politics. The inverse effect of Hillary's approvals tanking after she re-entered politics.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
lastflowers said:
Yeah, fuck everyone that supported Bernie lets all call them Bernie Bros.
Click to expand...

I voted for Bernie in the primary (Ohio FWIW).

I also threw my weight behind Hillary because that's the right thing for progressives to do.

The circular firing squad helps nobody.

And Bernie himself is against it.

Fuck the Bros.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
So... Clinton will probably/possibly win Michigan when all's said and done.

Not enough to win the election. But it makes for a need for more nuance to the myriad post-mortems.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
shinra-bansho said:
So... Clinton will probably/possibly win Michigan when all's said and done.

Not enough to win the election. But it makes for a need for more nuance to the myriad post-mortems.
Click to expand...

That's going to make all the post-mortems more interesting and blunt a few of the current ideas as to what happened. I wonder if we'll see anything else like that in the coming days.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue and just not bothering to vote.

I recall before the election people saying, I'm voting for ____ because I'm in safe WI.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
shinra-bansho said:
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue.
Click to expand...

Probably a lot of it. Dems have spoken about those two states as fool's gold for the GOP in recent years. If she carried those and Michigan then she wins.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Where can we see the Michigan results/projections? The NYT is still where it's been before, at around .3% margin.

shinra-bansho said:
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue.
Click to expand...

I don't know. That would be very disappointing, if true, but they also had very high profile, big money senate races too. And Pennsylvania was probably the most contested state of the election (probably Florida #1, but still). If that doesn't activate voters, what will?
 
N

numble

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue and just not bothering to vote.

I recall before the election people saying, I'm voting for ____ because I'm in safe WI.
Click to expand...

Turnout in PA was higher than in 2012.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Even if she wins it she doesn't win the election, unless Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also magically flip. So if it does happen, I can see it not getting much coverage.
Click to expand...
I know but i'm just curious about michigan in particular. i had a friend who lives there who didn't vote.
 
T

thehypocrite

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue and just not bothering to vote.

I recall before the election people saying, I'm voting for ____ because I'm in safe WI.
Click to expand...
Anecdotally, I've heard millennials that considered voting third party cause the state was safe blue. This is really something to take into account going forward, we cannot feed complacency to our voters. They must understand the importance and the urgency of every vote.
 
K

kirblar

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about it. But how much of this is just complacency on the part of Dems in WI and PA thinking that they're safe Blue and just not bothering to vote.

I recall before the election people saying, I'm voting for ____ because I'm in safe WI.
Click to expand...
Lots.

I would expect turnout to be way up next cycle.

This is going to be a curse every 8 years. The young don't understand.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Do we have any potential great candidates coming up for the NJ and VA gubernatorial elections? NJ seems likely because of how terrible Christie is but I'm unfamiliar with the state politics of either. None of our senators seem interested in running there, though. Maybe Kaine will now that he's not running for VP?
Click to expand...

Everyone, literally everyone, in NJ is corrupt. That's just part of the deal.
 
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