So, fivethirtyeight updated their Margins Bernie Needs to Beat chart. It doesn't look good for Bern, I'm afraid. They're saying the really needed to go +19/+32/+0 in Iowa/NH/Nevada. Instead he went +0/+22/-5. So they're basically saying he's been performing worse than he needed to in order to be on track for a win.
Of course, he could make it up in other states, but with each passing day, the margins he needs to overperform by are growing. 538 thinks he'd need to take Oklahoma and Tennessee, for example. By +4 and +2. Instead he's at -2 and -25, respectively. Super Tuesday could be roof stoof for Bernie.