Basileus777
Member
Trump traditionally does better in early votes, so this actually points mostly to Cruz taking Rubio's share.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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The fascinating thing is that he's still performing massively well relative to any Republican primary in history... But he's so polarizing that he can still lose even with the amount of voters he can draw.There's also the question is how much of this is Trump underperforming and how much of it is anti-Trump vote consolidating under Cruz. He's still at 42% in LA, is Cruz close because Rubio is dying?
That's not really an answer to your question though.
People need to stop with the "debates don't matter" line. It is absolutely clear Trump was hurt.
I don't think the debates alone hurt Trump.
Last week in general was a perfect storm to damage him. The debate, the KKK thing, and Mitt Romney combined.
BoboBrazil
Member
Trump needs to come out with some big endorsements Monday.
Macho Madness
Member
I will never understand how Hillary shares are below 90% on PredicIt right now.
For the nomination? I don't get it either.
Trump traditionally does better in early votes, so this actually points mostly to Cruz taking Rubio's share.
In LA I'll mostly assume the moderate base is almost non-existant or to the extent to which they're a minority and decided not to show up either. Those that perhaps did, took the purity bait.
Basileus777
Member
Guys what is happening in LA right now? Decision desk is showing Cruz only 2.3% behind with 61% reporting.
Use this. Trump has held a consistent 10k vote lead for a while now. He'll hold on, don't fret over % numbers.
Elaugaufein
Member
I will never understand how Hillary shares are below 90% on PredicIt right now.
Some hedging and gamblers not exactly being the best example of rational agents (on average you lose money gambling unless you're very very good).
They can call it early because the Cruz base precincts called in first.Guys what is happening in LA right now? Decision desk is showing Cruz only 2.3% behind with 61% reporting.
Edit; nevermind, decision desk just bumped Drumpf back up.
Officerrob
Banned
Nate Silver is right, at this point Louisiana should probably be un-called
RastaMentality
Banned
He'll probably win KY and LA but today definitely wasn't a good day, delegates wise.
Macho Madness
Member
Nate Silver is right, at this point Louisiana should probably be un-called
Secretary of State's site shows a 10,000 vote lead for Trump. It would be very difficult for that to be made up.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
If Rubio somehow loses to Trump in Puerto Rico tomorrow I'll laugh hard. If he loses to Ted Cruz I'll simply shake my head in disapproval.
Basileus777
Member
Nate Silver is right, at this point Louisiana should probably be un-called
It shouldn't have been called so early, but if they uncalled it now they'd likely just have to call it again for Trump soon enough.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ever since the GOP announced that Rubio was their favored candidate, he's gotten fucking crushed.
The Party Decides But Maybe the GOP Isn't a Functional Political Party Anymore?
The Party Decides But Maybe the GOP Isn't a Functional Political Party Anymore?
I like how half of the Republicans have nicknamesUse this. Drumpf has held a consistent 10k vote lead for a while now. He'll hold on, don't fret over % numbers.
"Jeb" Bush (R) 0.72% 1743
"Ben" Carson (R) 1.56% 3771
"Chris" Christie (R) 0.13% 327
Timothy "Tim" Cook (R) 0.07% 173
"Ted" Cruz (R) 37.54% 90987
"Carly" Fiorina (R) 0.08% 188
Lindsey Graham (R) 0.05% 116
"Mike" Huckabee (R) 0.22% 541
John R. Kasich (R) 6.05% 14661
Peter Messina (R) 0.01% 35
"Rand" Paul (R) 0.21% 520
Marco Rubio (R) 11.33% 27455
"Rick" Santorum (R) 0.06% 144
Donald J. Drumpf (R)
Rubio is such a useless shit. The good news is the remaining map is so anti cruz.Trump traditionally does better in early votes, so this actually points mostly to Cruz taking Rubio's share.
Also, that he keeps delaying the press conference underscores how close the races are. It will be interesting to see who comes out on top with delegates for the day. Cruz's margins are bigger, but Trump's states are bigger.He'll probably win KY and LA but today definitely wasn't a good day, delegates wise.
Basileus777
Member
Also, that he keeps delaying the press conference underscores how close the races are. It will be interesting to see who comes out on top with delegates for the day. Cruz's margins are bigger, but Trump's states are bigger.
It'll depend on how the congressional districts pan out.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump vs. Cruz to finish will be pretty interesting. The competent politician with policy ideas that literally no one likes outside of Republican think tanks vs. the incompetent politician with ideas that are popular with actual Republican voters. Both hated by the establishment and basically everyone who is sane. One believes he is part of a Biblical Prophecy, the other talks about Two Corinthians.
Vinsanity.
Member
I swear CNN has had "Awaiting Donald Trump news conference" for 2 hours now at the bottom of their screen. They put it up around 8:40 or so...
Basileus777
Member
Getting the impression that if these ballots in KY and LA were updated before today Cruz might be winning them. There are a LOT of votes going to people like Huckabee, etc that might have gone to Cruz.
A couple hundred of votes that would be split between candidates wouldn't make up the difference. Carson is the only significant other vote getter and he just dropped out, so updating ballots for him would be impossible.
Black Republican
Member
Trump only ahead by 3% in KY
BoboBrazil
Member
I swear CNN has had "Awaiting Donald Trump news conference" for 2 hours now at the bottom of their screen. They put it up around 8:40 or so...
It was supposed to happen at 9pm est lol
At some point delaying this press conference starts looking bad for Trump. Hes gotta take a chance and come out.
The networks aren't complaining at least. I'm sure they're plenty happy to continue to bait their audiences.I swear CNN has had "Awaiting Donald Trump news conference" for 2 hours now at the bottom of their screen. They put it up around 8:40 or so...
Trump only ahead by 3% in KY
By a lot of votes though and Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) have already reported
A couple hundred of votes that would be split between candidates wouldn't make up the difference. Carson is the only significant other vote getter and he just dropped out, so updating ballots for him would be impossible.
Assuming they split. In some cases they might not have. If you have close to a thousand people going for Huckabee just for example they're not going to split between Cruz and Trump. They're going one way.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Trump only ahead by 3% in KY
As people have mentioned, the counties that would make a difference are already done so the only question is the margin, not the outcome.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Sounds right.Harry Enten said:You keep hearing from people like me that Drumpf has a floor of about one-third of the vote. For instance, he averaged 35 percent in the Super Tuesday contests. Today, its the same story. His average vote percentage in the four states that voted today is 33 percent. The big difference from other days is that Cruz was able to coalesce a lot of the anti-Drumpf bloc, which led to at least two victories.
Basileus777
Member
LA race is over, Trump is up by over 11k now. Even Dave Wasserman is abandoning his "dead heat" campaign.
They always split, no voting bloc moves over to another candidate monolithically.Assuming they split. In some cases they might not have. If you have close to a thousand people going for Huckabee just for example they're not going to split between Cruz and Trump. They're going one way.
StopMakingSense
Member
"We knew this would be the roughest period of the campaign, given the makeup of the electoral map," Rubio said in the primarily Spanish language presser, as quoted by The Hill.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
I know the quote attributed to Trump from the eary 2000's about running for President as a Republican because the audience are easily manipulated, FOX-News-watching idiots is false, but, guess what? That's EXACTLY what he is doing. Lmao.
Now I wonder if early voting is going to save trump in Florida and doom cruz...
It's likely going to save(well not save but help him avoid maximum failure) Rubes too. I bet Cruz beats him in polling day of but early voting save Rubio from coming in third.
Basileus777
Member
Now I wonder if early voting is going to save trump in Florida and doom cruz...
Today's events seem favorable for Trump in Florida, it's difficult to imagine someone other than Rubio beating him there. It's Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois that'd I'd worry about more. But those are all open primaries.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Yeah, they've already cast 433,000 early ballots.Now I wonder if early voting is going to save trump in Florida and doom cruz...
BoboBrazil
Member
Luckily for Trump it's mostly primaries from here on out. I wonder if Trump will take questions from the media again?
Luckily for Trump it's mostly primaries from here on out. I wonder if Trump will take questions from the media again?
I wonder. He might get spooked and try to veer right over the next few days after having tried to pivot on ST.
RastaMentality
Banned
Nate is pissed Trump was able to hold on in LA. He definitely wanted to argue the networks called it too early.
Macho Madness
Member
Here comes Trump
Black Republican
Member
here he comes
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
The David Duke stuff should've helped Trump in Louisiana
Officerrob
Banned
Nate is pissed Trump was able to hold on in LA. He definitely wanted to argue the networks called it too early.
Well, they did call it too early
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