Hexa
Member
I think Trump will outperform polls in New York. How are the delegates from New York allocated exactly?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
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I think Trump will outperform polls in New York. How are the delegates from New York allocated exactly?
I'm surprised Cruz is doing so well.
Lmao, get fucked El Rato. And to think Trump hasn't even started with the Zadroga attacks yet. That shit will ether Ted to oblivion.
Someone please tell me there's a GOP debate before the primary. Trump could end Cruz if he hit him with Zadroga in a debate.
RastaMentality
Banned
Cruz saying New York has a sort of "liberal intolerance" makes me want him to get shut out even more badly.
Cruz's campaign manager said that if Trump doesn't get over 50% of the vote in NY, he should drop out because that makes so much sense. The GOP is such a hot mess.
Agreed.
It sounds like Cruz is shooting for upstate NY and pockets of religious voters in the city. Once Trump starts hammering Zadroga, he will kill off any support Cruz still has in the city. Trump will take upstate as well without much contest.
The fact that Kasich's PAC is HAMMERING Cruz on his NY values comment is just icing on the cake. Cruz will get BTFO there.
Macho Madness
Member
Emerson, Siena, and PPP are all going to be polling NY over the weekend it looks like
I see Cruz's campaign manager is from the H.A Goodman school of delegate math.
googleplex
Member
Oww.. My head.
We'll probably have a good picture of how that Daily News thing affected the race on the Dem side after that.
User 463088
Banned
That and the qualified thing too.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Macho Madness
Member
Field poll
CA
Clinton 47
Sanders 41
CA
Clinton 47
Sanders 41
Wait, did Penn actually believe that or was it just the delusion of a dead campaign?
User 463088
Banned
Field Poll in Cali
Hillary 47
Bernie 41
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics...17.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Hillary 47
Bernie 41
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics...17.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
FYI I don't think Independents can vote, just people with no party affiliation?
User 463088
Banned
Right, no party affiliation. They have them listed like that in the results. Field Poll is the gold standard in California, I believe.
Box of Kittens
Banned
He is reported to have said it in a strategy meeting back in 2007.
Honestly he just didn't care about delegate math because he thought that his brilliant strategy of targeting "Invisible Americans" coupled with Obama not being "fundamentally American" would give Clinton a large enough lead that it wouldn't matter.
Right. They said independents in their write up so I was a little wary.
Also if she's tied with white voters, up with Hispanic voters and up big with black voters, I kind of don't buy that she'd only be up by 8 but whatever.
Holy shit. That is mindblowingly arrogant. I knew he was bad, but that is just terrible.
BlackClouds
Member
I have to laugh at this, as Bernie's campaign is trying to make out HRC as hopelessly corrupt monster (and now unqualified). Trying to drive up HRC's negatives to win is pure desperation. Doesn't help the party at all, with his zero sum, scorched earth strategy if he can't close the deal to get the nomination.
User 463088
Banned
That's a good point. I didn't even notice that. You'd think if she's leading every group she'd be a bit more ahead.
I'm not going to unskew. +8 is probably a bit higher than where I expect the race to end up. I was just surprised when I saw that.
I also think CA polling is going to be hard in general since many might not know if they're registered Independent or NPA.
Where I stand.
He's been going full-on Republican in how he's been attacking her for the past two weeks. Doubling down on the "Unqualified" shit just seals it. His word is as good now as it was when he promised to run a clean campaign.
Now Sanders is being likened to a Republican. Of course. What an evil and vile man, he must be stopped!
If his election was for nothing else, I know I have gained a personal hero. I put him along side the ranks of Martin Luther King Jr. and Tommy Douglas and other great revolutionaries, even if his failed. He tried, and that's more that can be said for the rest of us.
User 463088
Banned
Yep, this
You should stick to The Wire references.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Here's the delegate allocation in full detail.
Here's a summary that doesn't worry about cases that are clearly not going to happen:
-Each CD (there are 27) has 3 delegates. If anyone gets over 50% in the district he gets them all, otherwise the winner and runner-up split them 2-1.
-There are 14 statewide delegates. If anyone gets over 50% he gets them all, otherwise they are split proportionally, with a 20% threshold.
VendettaRed07
Member
Which reminds me, I feel obligated to remind everyone how Clinton is basically Carcetti. And yes, I know all about O'Malley. Like how Carcetti was all about the power and willing to put his own interests and those of the elite before the people who actually needed it, Clinton does the same.
Still, I can't help but feel bad for the lower classes in the future, especially those in the lower classes. See, the rhetoric here is that people need to vote Clinton to keep Trump out because that's made for minorities, but really the there exists a link between class and race. Literally 98% of the dealers on The Wire were black, and from my visit to Baltimore, I can say the same. The get wrapped up in that environment, it passes on the kids and other downtrodden folk... and the cycle perpetuates.
When the establishment eventually guts Bernie, he should go down fighting. He should say
get on with it motherfucker
Macho Madness
Member
I'm gonna keep saying it, Ryan wants to be president way more than he lets on publicly.
The Establishment Strikes back.
Honestly, I think Ryan getting the nod would literally destroy the party beyond repair as soon as it was announced. Remember Trump and Cruz have some 3/4 of the delegates and votes cast this cycle. If both of them lose it to some guy who has less votes than Jim Gilmore this cycle by some backroom establishment shit, they will tear the GOP down in protest. I don't buy for one second that the GOP base would coalesce around Ryan if he outright stole it from the two front runners. In terms of scenarios that would damage the GOP, I think they rank (worst first):
1. Trump is the nominee
2. Ryan is the nominee
3. Kasich is the nominee
4. Cruz is the nominee
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Paul Ryan wants to be president someday. I agree with pigeon that Ryan will probably be the next Republican POTUS, assuming Dems cannot hold the White House for more than 2 administrations. I don't think he's going to accept any BS contested convention nom this year, but given how much baggage he's going to accrue as Speaker, it's pretty important that he starts building up his brand as an intelligent, reasonable moderate now, especially assuming he wants to realign his party around that image he's going to try and build. I will admit, if I didn't know Ryan's history as a cuckoo objectivist, this ad would be pretty appealing to me.
Box of Kittens
Banned
He's truly awful. His rise was basically an accident of timing. Bill Clinton brought him on after the Republicans took control of Congress in the 1994 midterms to turn things around. He was given a lot of credit for Clinton's re-election in 1996, and in particular his strategy of targeting suburban "soccer moms" was treated as a stroke of genius. Honestly though, with the economy as strong as it was in 1996 Clinton would have had a hard time losing that election, especially against an opponent as uninspiring as Bob Dole. But since everyone assumed after the midterms that Clinton was doomed to be a one term president, Penn was given a lot of credit for the comeback.
After that he embarked on a campaign to systematically prove that his reputation was undeserved. Aside from the awful job he did with the Hillary '08 campaign, he was on track to pretty much run the Al Gore campaign into the ground in 1999 before being fired. As usual he focused on some pithy demographic to target. This time it was "wired workers." Still, it was 2008 that really exposed to most observers just how incompetent he is as a political strategist.
Doesn't surprise me at all. Ryan always wanted to run, and it would probably be a good idea to do it before he has to be Speaker of the House under Hillary Clinton for 8 years.
Ultimately, as before, everything depends on whether Trump can get the majority; if he can't, if he's willing to accept some kind of deal to back out; and if he isn't, whether he's interested in politics and negotiation enough to actually break with the party. I have basically no idea about any of these three things.
We're kind of at a point in history where a lot of outcomes depend on the choices of individual actors. Interesting times!
Ultimately, as before, everything depends on whether Trump can get the majority; if he can't, if he's willing to accept some kind of deal to back out; and if he isn't, whether he's interested in politics and negotiation enough to actually break with the party. I have basically no idea about any of these three things.
We're kind of at a point in history where a lot of outcomes depend on the choices of individual actors. Interesting times!
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