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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Macho Madness said:
I did some math like a week ago on this but did winner take all supers for states won.

Hillary still crushes
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Was hoping for something more granular.
WTA for WTA states. apportioned by % popular for pure proportional states. Apportioned by delegate split percentage for CD states
 
H

Hazmat

Member
The crazy differences in voting in open/closed primaries/caucuses with the added flavor of absentee voting, early voting, and how much of each of those really shows that we're just two steps removed from picking a name out of a hat. I'll be 35 the next time around, and I fully endorse putting the names of all registered Democrats in a hat and picking the nominee that way.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Daniel B·;200571994 said:
How come Hillary's pledged delegate lead crept back over 200 (216; 1303 vs 1087), since Bernie's win in Wisconsin, where he gained ten extra delegates (48 vs 38)?
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It never went below 200...
 
K

Kangi

Member
Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 56s56 seconds ago

With #WYCaucus Washakie County update, Sanders falls to 56% with only one county left. Delegate tie almost assured with this result.
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QUEEN.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
THIS IS RELEVANT TO MY INTERESTS

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/09/current-polls-favor-a-trump-delegate-majority/#more-14926

This week in the Republican nomination race, Ted Cruz’s win in Wisconsin triggered buzz about how front-runner Donald Trump might be in trouble. Doubtless today’s win in Colorado will intensify the chatter, and will involve words like “momentum.” It is best to ignore all of that coverage – at least until some national polling data shows a sustained change. Why? Because states differ from one another, mostly in demographics but also in rules and various local factors. It is almost impossible to learn something new from a single race. To know where the race stands as a whole, it is necessary to consider all states at once.

In several ways, Wisconsin was typical. With a pre-election poll median of 36.0 ± 1.5% (median ± estimated SEM), Trump’s vote share of 35% was on the mark, continuing his close match between polls and outcomes. Cruz’s finish was also typical, but for a different reason: he was, and is, outperforming his polls. Cruz’s pre-election polls were 39.0 ± 1.2%, and he ended up with 48% of the vote. In previous states, Cruz has overperformed by a median factor of 1.2. Either his supporters are exceptionally committed, or he is the beneficiary of anti-Trump votes liberated from their previous first choices, or both. Also, in Wisconsin he may have benefited from the fact that trailing candidates like Kasich often underperform their polls when it is time to vote.

Where is the national race now? The current 6-national-poll median (March 29-April 6) is Trump 39.5 ± 1.2%, Cruz 31.0 ± 2.1%, Kasich 19.0 ± 1.1%. If we were to apply a 1.2-fold bonus to Cruz’s numbers to allow for his overperformance, the corrected numbers are Trump 39.5%, Cruz 37.2% – extremely close. Either way, Cruz has risen quite a bit in the last month, and national opinion is now closely divided.

I have updated the polls-only snapshot of the remaining primaries in the Republican primaries, all the way to June 7th, when voting ends. This is a challenging calculation for four reasons: (a) many states lack polls; (b) delegate assignment rules vary by state; (c) Cruz overperforms his polls; and (d) delegates may not follow the rules. Today I describe one way of dealing with all of these issues.

For those who just want the bottom line: Since my last update, a poll-based snapshot has moved – in Trump’s favor. If current polls accurately measure voter behavior, then Donald Trump would get a median of 1,356 delegates – almost 120 more than the 1,237 he needs for a first-ballot victory at the national convention in Cleveland. For this probability to drop to 50%, his national lead would have to drop by 8.0% – this is Trump’s Meta-Margin, a measure I have previously developed for general-election Presidential races. However, if Cruz’s overperformance continues, Trump’s Meta-Margin would narrow considerably, to 2.0%. After allowing for Cruz’s potential overperformance, the probability of a Trump majority is 66%, 2-1 odds in his favor.
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Trump_8apr2016_1200px.jpg
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S

studyguy

Member
CNN just called Bern a super funded zombie lmao.

Anyway pretty shocked he didn't just steamroll the state, it's tiny as fuck, white caucus state.
 
P

Paches

Member
Love the HuffPost headline:

SANDERS BAGS ANOTHER: Wyoming Brings 6th Straight Win

In which he literally netted 1 delegate.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
studyguy said:
CNN just called Bern a super funded zombie lmao.

Anyway pretty shocked he didn't just steamroll the state, it's tiny as fuck, white caucus state.
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I would wonder if this is a result of the "unqualified" comments and such, but Wyoming is too small to be a reliable sample size.
 
S

studyguy

Member
maabus1999 said:
Big disappointment for Bernie tonight. Hell ge held rallies there and everything while I don't think Hillary did anything.
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Ground game isn't nothing, just sort of speaks to the competency of the Hillary campaign that she didn't get absolutely rekt like most of us expected.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Aaron Strife said:
I would wonder if this is a result of the "unqualified" comments and such, but Wyoming is too small to be a reliable sample size.
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Exactly, small sample + caucus + lack of polling = We can't tell shit.

sc0la said:
I read this as "nutted one delegate"
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Thanks, that's an image I needed in my head. Might as well just go to lemon party.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I think it also helps that it's a completely closed caucus. The party switch and registration deadline was on March 25th. Since only Democrats could compete, he doesn't have his Independent pool to pull from. This bodes well for the rest of the month.

Plus, you know, maybe there was some momentum after his disastrous interview. I feel like that type of thing may show up even more in a cock use because you do have to be more energized to take part. If you were voting for Bernie because you didn't like Queen, but you saw that shitty performance, you may have just decided not to participate at all. Speculation, sure, but it bears thinking about!
 
H

Holmes

Member
After this primary season I'm probably never going to think about Goshen county, Wyoming until the next time I think about the 2016 Wyoming democratic caucus years from now.
 
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