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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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K

Kangi

Member
Tesseract said:
please don't give up on education and healthcare as rights

looking forward to new york, g'luck to hillary and bernie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOjCXxrIuvs
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g'luck to hillary
Click to expand...

Originally Posted by Tesseract
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image.php


Do you need medical attention, Tesseract? Two puppet dance .gifs for yes, one for no.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Hylianhero777 said:
I didn't say it was a "slight to Sanders." For a reference like the thread title to be funny I would have to know what the hell it was referencing, which evidently many people in this thread didn't. It just strikes me as weird, how did anyone even find something with such low exposure and how did it go from being a tweet from a nobody that you'd have to go out of your way to find to being the "lol so funny" title of this thread. It just seems like shitting on some rando twitter user with an "opinion" that gained absolutely no support from anyone else anyways.

I'm not feeling slighted, really. Maybe "misrepresented" would be a better word. Just kind of feels like my community doesn't even matter in the end, but hey, I guess that's politics (1st election here). Obviously I knew all of this going in, but it's different knowing how things are and experiencing them firsthand.

I think you're over analyzing me a bit here based on some genuine confusion as to why this thread title change is even funny in the first place. Don't read too much into it.
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Here's the reality. By all accounts unless a once in history come back happens this primary is over and has been for a while. Sanders has done well but he's not on a victory path. So it's getting kinda boring. So it's amusing to find random things and laugh a bit. No one is claiming the tweet represents any larger belief. It was just something funny to joke about.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
It's funny because it sounds funny. The reference itself is just icing.

Also, looking at that delegate graph shows that the Sanders campaign probably should've competed in the South. He basically turned them into Winner-take-all states.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 55m55 minutes ago
Jamelle Bouie Retweeted J.D. Rhoades
Generally speaking, the drive to make the South competitive again rests on black voters.

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 2h2 hours ago
Jamelle Bouie Retweeted Raw Story
"A lot of that came from the South."

(Home to the most loyal group of Dem voters without whom Dems couldn't win.)

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 2h2 hours ago
Black voters in the South are the reason Dems can win Virginia and Florida, and stay competitive in North Carolina and Florida.

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 2h2 hours ago
Blacks generally are the reason liberals, in particular, can win national elections. Remove blacks & electoral scope of liberalism shrinks.
Click to expand...

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 10m10 minutes ago
Jamelle Bouie Retweeted Jason Krishnan
There is no national coalition for liberalism, much less the left, without blacks. Period.
Click to expand...

Yay

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 17m17 minutes ago
I will say this until I am out of breath but Southern blacks are an integral part of pulling the South away from reactionary politics.

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 20m20 minutes ago
2. The candidate whose theory rests on a political revolution isn't in a place to handwave away places where his message didn't suffice.

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 21m21 minutes ago
Two thoughts: 1.'"It's the South" sounds dismissive in large part because Sanders touts wins in the rural West.
Click to expand...

yay x2
 
H

Hylianhero777

Member
Souldriver said:
Don't focus on unreasonably opinioned or snarky posts (or worse, shitposts) from anonymous internet people. It will only madden you, and because you notice them more when they're negative about your preferred candidate, it creates the illusion that your candidate is being "treated unfairly". Just remember that for every shitpost on the internet Sanders gets, somewhere else one is being made for Hillary. Just try to ignore them, because if you don't, you engage into a discussion that's more like a trench war and noone will change opinions or agree to disagree. And worse, you just add another worthless "my candidate is treated unfairly" post to the pile.

Try to focus on news stories, facts, and people who voice their opinions intelligently.

I also always try to force myself to get a perspective on things. For example, I personally find the whole "qualified" debacle just a fart in a net bag. I'm more of a Hillary supporter than a Bernie supporter, so I could be be outraged, but honestly, if Hillary had said the same thing about Bernie, I would just consider it a standard attack on an opponent. Or a poor choice of words to just say you're the better candidate. So whatever. It's a shame the democratic primaries are getting a little dirty, but in the grand scheme of things, neither Bernie or Hillary have said or done anyting that makes me think "wtf is wrong with him/her?". How their supporters behave is of less importance.

Mind you, I don't have the state of mind of a buddhist monk when I read political threads. It's a aggravating activity. I always have to tell myself to NOT read the comments on imgur, because "Hitlery" is not used in an ironic sense over there.
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Yeah this is a good way to look at engaging with politics on the internet. I also agree that all of these "Hillary for prison" type posts are WAY too far. People need to engage on differences in policy, not this petty name calling and trying to label people who disagree with you. Thanks man.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Hylianhero777 said:
I didn't say it was a "slight to Sanders." For a reference like the thread title to be funny I would have to know what the hell it was referencing, which evidently many people in this thread didn't. It just strikes me as weird, how did anyone even find something with such low exposure and how did it go from being a tweet from a nobody that you'd have to go out of your way to find to being the "lol so funny" title of this thread. It just seems like shitting on some rando twitter user with an "opinion" that gained absolutely no support from anyone else anyways.

I'm not feeling slighted, really. Maybe "misrepresented" would be a better word. Just kind of feels like my community doesn't even matter in the end, but hey, I guess that's politics (1st election here). Obviously I knew all of this going in, but it's different knowing how things are and experiencing them firsthand.

I think you're over analyzing me a bit here based on some genuine confusion as to why this thread title change is even funny in the first place. Don't read too much into it.
Click to expand...


Fair enough, I apologize for overreading your post :)
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
hawk2025 said:
The ad is about rallying the troops around the feels, though, and not about policy. It's very effective at that and quite well done, IMO.

I dunno. It's hard to question it without sounding (and being, I suppose) intensely paternalistic about how people spend their money. If $20 is buying them a whole lot of good feelings, I suppose it's all good. :)

Worth thinking about how a better-run campaign would leverage this type of grassroots funding even more, though. I personally think tying it to making campaign financing even more central would be nice.
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That's been his entire campaign. I'm bored of it.

I don't begrudge people chosing to donate I begrudge Sanders asking and bragging about it at this stage of the campaign.

Here's the thing Sanders frequently out spends Clinton and still loses.

This ad basically feels like a televangelist bragging about what the poor have given up so that the church can prosper. In both cases there's no actual prosperity.

The rise of Sanders as one true saviour makes me uncomfortable.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Could also use HILLARY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ GIVE TRANSCRIPTS.

Really, the options are endless.

excelsiorlef said:
That's been his entire campaign. I'm bored of it.

I don't begrudge people chosing to donate I begrudge Sanders asking and bragging about it at this stage of the campaign.

Here's the thing Sanders frequently out spends Clinton and still loses.

This ad basically feels like a televangelist bragging about what the poor have given up so that the church can prosper. In both cases there's no actual prosperity.

The rise of Sanders as one true saviour makes me uncomfortable.
Click to expand...

I can kinda see some similarities to the whole "seed money" things from televangelists.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Wikipedia made a really nice graph of delegates trends.
Click to expand...

There are reasons that you might want to look at delegate gains over time, but I feel like mostly this is going to obscure more interesting trends. And the delegate gap chart is really weird insofar as it's plotting the gap against contest names - it's going to be really hard to get anything out of this other than "Clinton's winning".

I wanted to see what each candidate's delegate gains looked like relative to the total number of delegates awarded, so I replotted the data:

RQGCHGz.png

fSQw1r1.png


The dots in the first plot mark the actual data points used, with same-day elections combined. Blue is Clinton and red is Sanders.

What's striking here is how nearly linear each is (though of course a lot of this is that there are two very long line segments that would be individually linear regardless). For each chunk of 100 delegates awarded up to about 2000 total Clinton has gotten just about 60 of them. Her performance has been pretty consistent.

This shows up in the plot of the gap too, which just steadily grows at a pretty constant rate (though again what mostly makes this happen is that the two long line segments have about the same slope) and then drops really rapidly for the last 400ish delegates awarded.

So, momentum! But also I think this more clearly shows that the story here is Clinton slowly and steadily building a lead over virtually the entire contest.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
hawk2025 said:
Thanks for the extra graphs!


fSQw1r1.png


This reminds me a lot of Xbox One vs PS4 right after the Holiday Season 2014!
Click to expand...

This one is best because you see that the idea of Sanders momentum is reallt just that he undid the gains Clinton made in a single day.

Sanders has taken a month to get back to where he was pre march 15th. Literally all his gains equal Clinton's March 15th.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I don't like the idea at all of people spending good money to fund a candidate. I'm sure a lot of those posts are jokes but some people are seriously doing it. What I truly don't want to happen is when they spend their saving supporting someone, that person loses, and they feel disengaged from politics going forward
 
S

Sianos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
This one was harder but my takes are 🔥🔥🔥

New York: Trump
Connecticut: Trump
Delaware: Trump
Maryland: Trump
Pennsylvania: Trump
Rhode Island: Trump
Indiana: Trump (VERY CLOSE)
Nebraska: Cruz
West Virginia: Trump
Oregon: Cruz
Washington: Cruz
California: Trump
Montana: Cruz (VERY CLOSE)
New Jersey: I mean. Trump.
New Mexico: Trump
South Dakota: Cruz
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Where would these results approximately place Trump with regards to delegate math? Will he hit the fabled 1237?

And on that note, I'm curious and am interested to see what routes people are predicting he will take to hit the magic number before the convention?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
metalslimer said:
I don't like the idea at all of people spending good money to fund a candidate. I'm sure a lot of those posts are jokes but some people are seriously doing it. What I truly don't want to happen is when they spend their saving supporting someone, that person loses, and they feel disengaged from politics going forward
Click to expand...
Or the girl who I heard say she wasn't paying her student loans because Bernie was going to make her debt go away. I know people are adults and can do what they want but... please don't do that.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
NSQuote said:
Where would these results approximately place Trump with regards to delegate math? Will he hit the fabled 1237?

And on that note, I'm curious and am interested to see what routes people are predicting he will take to hit the magic number before the convention?
Click to expand...

If he kills it in the North, and takes California, that should put him over the top. The majority of the states are winner-take-all. It'd be hilarious if the GOP gets decided by New York and California, two pretty liberal states.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Tamanon said:
If he kills it in the North, and takes California, that should put him over the top. The majority of the states are winner-take-all. It'd be hilarious if the GOP gets decided by New York and California, two pretty liberal states.
Click to expand...

Hm, it does seem like it will come down to California. I don't think he'll end up flipping any states he isn't projected to win in the north, but I do think he'll probably pick up that extra 20 from hitting 50% in New York... maybe?

From what I've seen, I guess it comes down to polls versus polls plus in California and if Cruz will continue to over-perform his predicted results.

But either way, I think we all win in the end.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Gotchaye said:
There are reasons that you might want to look at delegate gains over time, but I feel like mostly this is going to obscure more interesting trends. And the delegate gap chart is really weird insofar as it's plotting the gap against contest names - it's going to be really hard to get anything out of this other than "Clinton's winning".

I wanted to see what each candidate's delegate gains looked like relative to the total number of delegates awarded, so I replotted the data:

RQGCHGz.png

fSQw1r1.png


The dots in the first plot mark the actual data points used, with same-day elections combined. Blue is Clinton and red is Sanders.

What's striking here is how nearly linear each is (though of course a lot of this is that there are two very long line segments that would be individually linear regardless). For each chunk of 100 delegates awarded up to about 2000 total Clinton has gotten just about 60 of them. Her performance has been pretty consistent.

This shows up in the plot of the gap too, which just steadily grows at a pretty constant rate (though again what mostly makes this happen is that the two long line segments have about the same slope) and then drops really rapidly for the last 400ish delegates awarded.

So, momentum! But also I think this more clearly shows that the story here is Clinton slowly and steadily building a lead over virtually the entire contest.
Click to expand...
This is really helpful, thanks!

Holmes said:
Tesseract is back

tumblr_inline_o4qdc4WQDu1rrvhio_500.gif
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Is this Monica Lewinsky?
 
F

FiggyCal

Banned
metalslimer said:
I don't like the idea at all of people spending good money to fund a candidate. I'm sure a lot of those posts are jokes but some people are seriously doing it. What I truly don't want to happen is when they spend their saving supporting someone, that person loses, and they feel disengaged from politics going forward
Click to expand...

Presumably, they're adults who understand the risk.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
Holmes said:
Tesseract is back

tumblr_inline_o4qdc4WQDu1rrvhio_500.gif
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Tesse is awesome!

As someone that use to be a joke character, a long enough ban can make you realize that okay.. occasionally a joke is fun, but you don't want it to become the only theme of your posts.

But when rustling jimmies, and bringing about even meager larfs, it's easy to get caught up in it.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Thunder Monkey said:
Tesse is awesome!

As someone that use to be a joke character, a long enough ban can make you realize that okay.. occasionally a joke is fun, but you don't want it to become the only theme of your posts.

But when rustling jimmies, and bringing about even meager larfs, it's easy to get caught up in it.
Click to expand...

Was that when you got your tag?
 
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