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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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R

Retromelon

Member
dramatis said:
I'm watching this Chinese 3-person discussion table thing (can't read the title, so don't know what kind of show it is) and they're discussing the US primaries. Halfway through what I can conclude is that the moderator dude really likes House of Cards and that the guests actually seem to hold similar opinions to us.

Edit: Oh wow Chinese anti-Semitism in the comments lolwut
Click to expand...

But the ghost of Oswald Spengler told me that the Chinese admired the Jews for their legendary sense of business acumen
Lol, his latest article is a hoot. The world is over because of vr and porn i guess
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
NeoXChaos said:
If it was not obvious on March 1st that this race was over then it was signed sealed and delivered on March 15th.
Click to expand...
He'd surely be at 60% of the remaining delegates needed if he lost NY at the current polls margin, right? Very rough mental math says ~59-61%. He'd need to win every remaining state at margins larger than he just picked off demographic-friendly WY and WI. Which is just silly.

But yeah, this was over after ST, and super-duper over after ST2. In hindsight, Sanders has quite the testicles (or lack of sanity) to stay in after going 0-5 that night, which included getting drubbed in the 3 biggest GE swing states for this year.

Had these kinds of Sanders supporters existed for Clinton in 2008-- Keeping themselves pumped up back when she was at margins needing a far lower percentage of remaining delegates against Obama (with the writing on the wall anyway) compared to what Sanders needs this time-- It would be interesting to see if they could have made any difference.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
The NY polls have been shockingly consistent, even though we're still 9 days out. I think Hillary's going to end up winning by a pretty decent margin.

And if it weren't already clear after March 1st, the contest will be super over.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ivysaur12 said:
The NY polls have been shockingly consistent, even though we're still 9 days out. I think Hillary's going to end up winning by a pretty decent margin.

And if it weren't already clear after March 1st, the contest will be super over.
Click to expand...

It's not too shocking, she was our senator for like most of a decade. She'd really have to fuck up to lose this.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Trancos said:
I want to be fair and say that Tad Devine has been pretty consistent with his point about superdelegates endorsements being detrimental to democracy during the campaign.

Tad Devine wrote an Op-ed in 2008 saying that super delegates shouldn't be part of the campaign. Media shouldn't be counting them until the convention. And they shouldn't try to influence the campaign by announcing their pledge before the convention because it diminishes the power of the voters.

His point was that Obama and Clinton shouldn't be fighting for super delegates DURING the campaign but for the normal voters.

So in that point he is been kind of consistent.

Where he changed is that in that same Op-ed he argued that super delegates only role is to pledge to the candidate who won the most pledged delegates.

"After listening to the voters, the superdelegates can do what the Democratic Party’s rules originally envisioned. They can ratify the results of the primaries and caucuses in all 50 states"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10devine.html
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Are we talking about the same Devine who as recently as Feb defended them. Furthermore, was perhaps the primary reason they exist in the first place?
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ter-democratic-nomination-fight-again-n516891

I don't get your line of reasoning, when only one candidate has even talked about them to any degree.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ivysaur12 said:
More just that they haven't really tightened like I expected.
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The state as a whole made up it's mind about Clinton a long time ago, these numbers were always going to be fairly solid in her favor. If they do move, which I expect they won't, they'll move more toward a blowout.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
Bernie's been annoying the hell out of me lately, but damn I wish I was at Coney Island right now. Eating some Nathans, riding the Ferris Wheel, walking on that boardwalk....

Sigh.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Bronx-Man said:
Bernie's been annoying the hell out of me lately, but damn I wish I was at Coney Island right now. Eating some Nathans, riding the Ferris Wheel, walking on that boardwalk....

Sigh.
Click to expand...

You could stick around, act homeless, and get free McDonalds!
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
633hIfd.png


what is he trying to hint at?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
My HOT TAKE:

New York: Hillary
Connecticut: Hillary
Delaware: Hillary
Maryland: Hillary
Pennsylvania: Hillary
Rhode Island: Hillary (close)
Indiana: Bernie (also will be very close)
Guam: Hillary
West Virginia: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie
Oregon: Bernie
Virgin Islands: Hillary
Puerto Rico: Hillary
California: Hillary
Montana: Bernie
New Jersey: Hillary
New Mexico: Hillary
North Dakota: Bernie*
South Dakota: Bernie*
DC: Hillary

*I'm slightly less sure about these two because: We didn't get great exits from Arizona about Native American voting patterns, and fracking is a much bigger issue here than it is in other places (especially North Dakota). I don't know how that'll play. Both overwhelmingly favor Bernie in the demographics, but the race will be sort of over by then and Wyoming gives me pause.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
aspiegamer said:
He'd surely be at 60% of the remaining delegates needed if he lost NY at the current polls margin, right? Very rough mental math says ~59-61%. He'd need to win every remaining state at margins larger than he just picked off demographic-friendly WY and WI. Which is just silly.

But yeah, this was over after ST, and super-duper over after ST2. In hindsight, Sanders has quite the testicles (or lack of sanity) to stay in after going 0-5 that night, which included getting drubbed in the 3 biggest GE swing states for this year.

Had these kinds of Sanders supporters existed for Clinton in 2008-- Keeping themselves pumped up back when she was at margins needing a far lower percentage of remaining delegates against Obama (with the writing on the wall anyway) compared to what Sanders needs this time-- It would be interesting to see if they could have made any difference.
Click to expand...

Hillary was done in by caucus states and the south. Nothing she could have done in the big states would have mattered. I mean maybe she would have kept it close? She lots by 150+ delegates, no? Bernie will lose by even more, but his "need to win by" numbers are even more ridiculous.
 
H

Holmes

Member
ivysaur12 said:
My HOT TAKE:

New York: Hillary
Connecticut: Hillary
Delaware: Hillary
Maryland: Hillary
Pennsylvania: Hillary
Rhode Island: Hillary (close)
Indiana: Bernie (also will be very close)
Guam: Hillary
West Virginia: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie
Oregon: Bernie
Virgin Islands: Hillary
Puerto Rico: Hillary
California: Hillary
Montana: Bernie
New Jersey: Hillary
New Mexico: Hillary
North Dakota: Bernie*
South Dakota: Bernie*
DC: Hillary

*I'm slightly less sure about these two because: We didn't get great exits from Arizona about Native American voting patterns, and fracking is a much bigger issue here than it is in other places (especially North Dakota). I don't know how that'll play. Both overwhelmingly favor Bernie in the demographics, but the race will be sort of over by then and Wyoming gives me pause.
Click to expand...
Bitch me too! But I have Indiana going to Clinton. North Dakota will be strong Sanders - it's a caucus state.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
My HOT TAKE:

New York: Hillary
Connecticut: Hillary
Delaware: Hillary
Maryland: Hillary
Pennsylvania: Hillary
Rhode Island: Hillary (close)
Indiana: Bernie (also will be very close)
Guam: Hillary
West Virginia: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie
Oregon: Bernie
Virgin Islands: Hillary
Puerto Rico: Hillary
California: Hillary
Montana: Bernie
New Jersey: Hillary
New Mexico: Hillary
North Dakota: Bernie*
South Dakota: Bernie*
DC: Hillary

*I'm slightly less sure about these two because: We didn't get great exits from Arizona about Native American voting patterns, and fracking is a much bigger issue here than it is in other places (especially North Dakota). I don't know how that'll play. Both overwhelmingly favor Bernie in the demographics, but the race will be sort of over by then and Wyoming gives me pause.
Click to expand...
I'm inclined to agree with all of this.

So besides Oregon the only states Bernie will be winning from here out are red states lol (barring some surprises somewhere)
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Mine

New York: Hillary
Connecticut: Hillary
Delaware: Hillary
Maryland: Hillary
Pennsylvania: Hillary
Rhode Island: Hillary (close)
Indiana: Hillary (although its open and will be very close)
Guam: Hillary
West Virginia: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie*(We need more polling out of here. The last one surprisingly had Hillary up. I don't know if her campaign will think investing here is worth it due to OK and WV results on May 10th.)
Oregon: Bernie
Virgin Islands: Hillary
Puerto Rico: Hillary
California: Hillary
Montana: Bernie
New Jersey: Hillary
New Mexico: Hillary
North Dakota: Bernie*
South Dakota: Bernie*
DC: Hillary
Click to expand...
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Lmao I searched for Indiana Poll on Twitter and it gives you isidewith.com as the only one.

Yeah super accurate I'm sure

I'm indifferent on it. I think it might be a Bernie state BUT I think the GOP race might be where Independents vote more than usual because it's going to be more important and has contested Senate races.

Don't quote me on that.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
The only thing that could save Hillary in Kentucky is that it's a closed primary and conservative Dems weirdly still do well in the state.

We need more Indiana polls. It and Montana are going to be the most crucial states on the Republican side.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
ivysaur12 said:
The only thing that could save Hillary in Kentucky is that it's a closed primary and conservative Dems weirdly still do well in the state.

We need more Indiana polls. It and Montana are going to be the most crucial states on the Republican side.
Click to expand...
Kentucky is also a state Bill Clinton won both times in the general election.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
The only thing that could save Hillary in Kentucky is that it's a closed primary and conservative Dems weirdly still do well in the state.

We need more Indiana polls. It and Montana are going to be the most crucial states on the Republican side.
Click to expand...

KY has the same issue as WV. Democrats who vote R on the presidential level can't vote for Trump or Cruz so they will vote for Bernie or another person on the ballot.

Manchin is going to feel the heat when his state goes Bernie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...democrats-ponder-a-bernie-sanders-nomination/

"Bernie would not play in West Virginia," Manchin said. "His environmental stance? Oh, my, it would be awful."
Click to expand...
 
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