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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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UM.



CfxyJp9XEAA2Teg.jpg


You can't access the website at all.

This is good lol. Its amazing the disconnect people have
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
i dunno, i think i'd have a ton of fun being his PR handler while sober

If you didn't have to worry about getting in any trouble it'd be a fun job, but this guy is probably spending every day worried this is gonna be the day he gets canned.

Personally, I think Biden's got the fun job.
 

Armaros

Member
I can just imagine the conversations before any interview.

PR - 'Mr Vice President, Sir, pleasseeeeeee just stick to the script'

Biden 'I'm just going to wing it like I always do, what's the worst thing that can happen'

PR ....'why me God, why me' ... 'I need a drink now'
 
If you didn't have to worry about getting in any trouble it'd be a fun job, but this guy is probably spending every day worried this is gonna be the day he gets canned.

Personally, I think Biden's got the fun job.

i guess so, i'm just thinking i'd have a ton of fun coming up with new and exciting ways to damage control his gaffes
 

Armaros

Member
i guess so, i'm just thinking i'd have a ton of fun coming up with new and exciting ways to damage control his gaffes

Well you have to remember that after every public gaffe, a million people will be calling you, from the White House to Dem leadership to the Media. All asking WTH happened.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
i guess so, i'm just thinking i'd have a ton of fun coming up with new and exciting ways to damage control his gaffes

I can only imagine what Biden's PR guys went through after he came out in support of gay marriage back in 2012.

PR Guys: "NOT YET JOE! NOT YET!"

Good old Joseph R. B. Just stole Mccain's straight talk express and is leaving his PR guy in the dust. Lol

He put a jet engine on that sucker :lol
 
More on New York from Monmouth:

The race is basically tied among non-Hispanic white primary voters (48% for Sanders and 46% for Clinton), while Clinton enjoys a large lead among black, Hispanic and other voters (62% to 22%). Clinton holds a significant advantage among voters age 50 and older (57% to 36%), while the race is much closer among voters under 50 (45% for Clinton to 43% for Sanders).

Clinton earns similar levels of support across the state, including Manhattan and the Bronx (52%), Brooklyn and Queens (48%), Staten Island and the metro suburbs of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam counties (51%), and upstate New York (51%). Sanders performs better upstate (44%) and in the metro suburbs (41%) than he does in Brooklyn/Queens (36%) or Manhattan/Bronx (35%). However, 13% of primary voters in these four New York City boroughs say they do not have a candidate preference.

“It is worth noting that a significant number of minority voters in New York City are undecided. Based on past primaries, these should turn out to be Clinton voters, but Sanders is making an all-out appeal for their support,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I saw the cert, but I thought it was after it became a thing, I didn't know it was the birth of it @_@

But why "Islamic Shock"? Is it a reference/parody of something?

That birth certificate is definitely a WWE style comparison to The Rock; which I am all for.

I'm sorry but fuck Cornell west for questioning Obama's blackness. That kind of stuff was uncalled for and came off as petty. You can like that crap all you want but believe me most democrats and especially African Americans don't

West and Obama have had a long history of not liking each other. Obama's often been on the receiving end of a No True Scotsman argument from several black progressive intellectuals / black nationalists for some odd reason (IIRC I think Coates has issues with him because of Coates being a black nationalist and Obama being more of a pragmatist. Been years since I thought about that aspect though)

Trump hasn't done anything insane in the last week or so and as a result we're stuck with nothing to talk about in the middle of primary season.

Fair. Y'all have more or less ran all the Bernie folks out of the thread (except for masochists like me) on top of it, so not much discussion on that front either. :p
 
I'm sorry but fuck Cornell west for questioning Obama's blackness. That kind of stuff was uncalled for and came off as petty. You can like that crap all you want but believe me most democrats and especially African Americans don't

I think Pete is gonna have a real hard time dealing with his locker room if the QB is being called out for not being black enough.
 

pigeon

Banned
I agree with that metaphor completely. I'm arguing that using concrete to permanently fix that boulder to the top of the hill isn't a great policy. Sometimes it might need to roll down a bit! A flexible policy is almost always best (exceptions are things like civil rights and what-not).

I think the question of how much force is appropriate for America to use is a deeply difficult one, although I'm glad it's being discussed in the thread again.

One of the big difficulties I have trying to formulate a position on the issue is that every action appears to be wrong. Clearly not intervening in Rwanda was wrong. Clearly invading Iraq was wrong. Clearly not supporting Egypt sufficiently was wrong. Clearly our multilateral, European-proposed intervention in Libya was wrong, and clearly both suggesting intervention in Syria and not suggesting intervention in Syria seem to be wrong.

If your goal is to prevent loss of life and genocide, it's not clear that it is actually possible for any action the United States can take to bring that goal about. (Although apparently our engagement in Serbia way back in the day was totally appropriate, which just makes things harder.)

Basically, after Libya's failure, it's very hard for me to envision a situation where I could confidently say an American intervention would be a good idea. Libya had all the factors that we talk about wanting to justify an intervention -- genocide in progress, multilateral alliance, UN/NATO support, unelected government to depose, existing regional powers to take over. It still didn't work out! So what was the missing piece that WOULD have made that intervention have good results?
 
Obama did not have the same path as to what his racial identity he would chose as most, but all things considering I think it is ridiculous how people call into question the legitimacy of his identity.

Apparently when he was younger in college, he was going to present himself as a person of "mixed race", but as he met more people who were mixed, and especially ones who could "pass off" as white, he felt that they looked down on people who were darker or specifically black. He thought that people who wanted to present themselves as mixed did so just to distance themselves from being black, which made him uncomfortable, and felt alienated because he couldn't "pass off" as white quite in the same manner other people of mixed race could. So he chose to identify as black after that.

He could have chose not to indentify as black. Especially someone with Presidential and political ambition it would have made sense for him to present himself as mixed, but he chose to indentify as black, despite the obstacles it would create for him, and yet became President anyway.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Yeah the video with Biden is funny: https://twitter.com/becket/status/719570595608977409

Lol at Biden's PR handler having a panic attack

Oh god imagine being Biden's PR head, you would have an aneurysm whenever he goes out into the public.

There should be a warning label when going for the job, 'High chance your brain explodes on the job.'

I can just imagine the conversations before any interview.

PR - 'Mr Vice President, Sir, pleasseeeeeee just stick to the script'

Biden 'I'm just going to wing it like I always do, what's the worst thing that can happen'

PR ....'why me God, why me' ... 'I need a drink now'

There's an apocryphal rumor that Biden's PR / Personal staff was gifted upwards of $10k of booze from fellow staffers (who did this out of their own personal money, lol) after Obama won in 2008.

I think the question of how much force is appropriate for America to use is a deeply difficult one, although I'm glad it's being discussed in the thread again.

One of the big difficulties I have trying to formulate a position on the issue is that every action appears to be wrong. Clearly not intervening in Rwanda was wrong. Clearly invading Iraq was wrong. Clearly not supporting Egypt sufficiently was wrong. Clearly our multilateral, European-proposed intervention in Libya was wrong, and clearly both suggesting intervention in Syria and not suggesting intervention in Syria seem to be wrong.

If your goal is to prevent loss of life and genocide, it's not clear that it is actually possible for any action the United States can take to bring that goal about. (Although apparently our engagement in Serbia way back in the day was totally appropriate, which just makes things harder.)

Basically, after Libya's failure, it's very hard for me to envision a situation where I could confidently say an American intervention would be a good idea. Libya had all the factors that we talk about wanting to justify an intervention -- genocide in progress, multilateral alliance, UN/NATO support, unelected government to depose, existing regional powers to take over. It still didn't work out! So what was the missing piece that WOULD have made that intervention have good results?

Kosovo? That seemed effective?

I think the Clintons are especially bad on this because of all the issues from their previous engagements, and sometimes feeling like they have to make up for their past failures. Just my view though, IMO.
 

Slayven

Member
He's been failing from job to job for decades. Losers need campaign people too.
Just proves once you reach a certain level you damn near have to be caught with dead bodies to fail.

I'm sorry but fuck Cornell west for questioning Obama's blackness. That kind of stuff was uncalled for and came off as petty. You can like that crap all you want but believe me most democrats and especially African Americans don't
can not be said enough. West is petty spiteful because Obama did not kiss his ass.

Him being on Team Sanders shows exactly how in tune they been with the black vote
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Seems weird to me that Hillary would win black voters by the smallest margin nationally in her home state?

Edit: I guess not smallest. But close?
 
By going to the Vatican??

nick-young-confused-face-300x256_nqlyaa.png

Yes? Just another rally wont cut it. Hispanics, if they vote him in the percentages they did in other states, could give him a win. And even if the Vatican does not equals The Pope, the institution still has a lot of respect specially with older people.

I dont think he is doing it (going to the Vatican) because of the campaign, though.
 

User 406

Banned
UM.

CfxyJp9XEAA2Teg.jpg


You can't access the website at all.

That ain't right.

They should set it up so they can only access those sections of the site. Why punish the gay people in NC further?


I think the question of how much force is appropriate for America to use is a deeply difficult one, although I'm glad it's being discussed in the thread again.

One of the big difficulties I have trying to formulate a position on the issue is that every action appears to be wrong. Clearly not intervening in Rwanda was wrong. Clearly invading Iraq was wrong. Clearly not supporting Egypt sufficiently was wrong. Clearly our multilateral, European-proposed intervention in Libya was wrong, and clearly both suggesting intervention in Syria and not suggesting intervention in Syria seem to be wrong.

If your goal is to prevent loss of life and genocide, it's not clear that it is actually possible for any action the United States can take to bring that goal about. (Although apparently our engagement in Serbia way back in the day was totally appropriate, which just makes things harder.)

Basically, after Libya's failure, it's very hard for me to envision a situation where I could confidently say an American intervention would be a good idea. Libya had all the factors that we talk about wanting to justify an intervention -- genocide in progress, multilateral alliance, UN/NATO support, unelected government to depose, existing regional powers to take over. It still didn't work out! So what was the missing piece that WOULD have made that intervention have good results?

Random chance.

We don't know what will happen. So should we just let things go bad, or try to help with a strong chance of things also going bad or worse? We just don't know. Maybe we can't know. We are simply not in control of events.

As a normal person, with no power at all, it hurts to think about the terrible things that are going on in the world. But imagine that you had real power, that you were in fact the most powerful person in the world, and you really could do something. And on top of that, you get detailed briefings on exactly how bad things are. Do you let things happen? Do you risk making things worse by trying to stop them from happening? What would it be like to watch thousands upon thousands of people being systematically slaughtered, and do nothing, when you control the most powerful military that ever existed? What would it be like to try to stop a genocide, and believe you really did prevent a horror, only for events to become even more chaotic as a result ending in even more death?

I never want to know what that's like.
 

Clefargle

Member
Yes? Just another rally wont cut it. Hispanics, if they vote him in the percentages they did in other states, could give him a win. And even if the Vatican does not equals The Pope, the institution still has a lot of respect specially with older people.

I dont think he is doing it (going to the Vatican) because of the campaign, though.

Then why suggest it? You don't think it's a good strategy or even that it is a strategy at all. So why defend it?
 
Seems weird to me that Hillary would win black voters by the smallest margin nationally in her home state?

Edit: I guess not smallest. But close?
I wonder how much 2008 information gets plugged in there that could be skewing things unintentionally.

But overall as with most polls you just throw it into the aggregate and hope for the best.
 
If this came out, what would it do to his targets in CA? He'd need like 70-30 there to fix that.

If she had that margin in NY, and won everything but Rhode Island by the margins we expect on the 26th.....she'd erase every single one of Bernie's wins over the last 3 weeks...except for Utah. She'd probably be back on a 300(ish) delegate lead.
 
I think the question of how much force is appropriate for America to use is a deeply difficult one, although I'm glad it's being discussed in the thread again.

One of the big difficulties I have trying to formulate a position on the issue is that every action appears to be wrong. Clearly not intervening in Rwanda was wrong. Clearly invading Iraq was wrong. Clearly not supporting Egypt sufficiently was wrong. Clearly our multilateral, European-proposed intervention in Libya was wrong, and clearly both suggesting intervention in Syria and not suggesting intervention in Syria seem to be wrong.

If your goal is to prevent loss of life and genocide, it's not clear that it is actually possible for any action the United States can take to bring that goal about. (Although apparently our engagement in Serbia way back in the day was totally appropriate, which just makes things harder.)

Basically, after Libya's failure, it's very hard for me to envision a situation where I could confidently say an American intervention would be a good idea. Libya had all the factors that we talk about wanting to justify an intervention -- genocide in progress, multilateral alliance, UN/NATO support, unelected government to depose, existing regional powers to take over. It still didn't work out! So what was the missing piece that WOULD have made that intervention have good results?

This sounds like an NP problem, which means it's difficult but we haven't proved that it's impossible to solve. It's easy to verify that previous solutions didn't work, but that doesn't tell us enough to find a general rule for possible solutions.

And I'd put forth Korea as a situation where our intervention made our allies pretty happy. You could argue that that was a war, and stuff like Libya weren't, but that's a pretty arbitrary distinction when we weren't one of the parties being attacked. Like I mentioned earlier, what's the correct US response if NK charges over the southern border? I can't legitimately argue for non-intervention there.

"But then our ally is getting attacked!" Sure. But then we're making it clear that we only concern ourselves with full governments that have allegiance to us. I don't necessarily mind the latter part of that (it's distasteful, but that's true for a lot of foreign policy), but the former is too far for me. Past mistakes don't mean you tell the world to piss off.
 

pigeon

Banned
Kosovo? That seemed effective?

Was it not? I was not that politically aware at the time. All I remember is that we got Milosovic and that nobody brings up Kosovo to talk about how evil America is, so I assumed it must have gone okay. I guess you can also theorize that nobody cares about the Balkans, which would match most of European history.
 

hawk2025

Member
Random chance.

We don't know what will happen. So should we just let things go bad, or try to help with a strong chance of things also going bad or worse? We just don't know. Maybe we can't know. We are simply not in control of events.

As a normal person, with no power at all, it hurts to think about the terrible things that are going on in the world. But imagine that you had real power, that you were in fact the most powerful person in the world, and you really could do something. And on top of that, you get detailed briefings on exactly how bad things are. Do you let things happen? Do you risk making things worse by trying to stop them from happening? What would it be like to watch thousands upon thousands of people being systematically slaughtered, and do nothing, when you control the most powerful military that ever existed? What would it be like to try to stop a genocide, and believe you really did prevent a horror, only for events to become even more chaotic as a result ending in even more death?

I never want to know what that's like.


Frankly, this kind of thinking sometimes just makes me want to go jack it in San Diego.
 

Subtle

Member
If Sanders manages to pull a win in NY, will the game change completely? If Hillary wins NY is it basically over for Sanders?
 
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