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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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A

aspiegamer

Member
For however far Wisconsin went in setting up fresh "even race" narrative, New York is shaping up to more than tilt it back in the other direction. Having to wait another week is such a pain.

I read the stuff about Sanders trying to make an honest-to-god stand in California regardless of the results anywhere else. That would be well and good assuming he 1) stopped attacking Clinton, and 2) stopped hounding college kids for pennies, but if neither of those things have started in the past month after they should have they're not going to start now. I've said that a thousand times now. It remains true.

GOP Dumpster Fire™ looks better day after day. Can we teleport the real Cleveland to an alternate dimension and replace it will a 100% destructible version built with extremely flammable materials? Perhaps an abbreviated version of the city in a GTA-style map redraw? I want to watch the city burn but don't actually mean any ill will upon the city itself. Please hide a tank in a hangar at the airport, though. Then things will get really fun. Only 1 tank spawn! Critically important.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
backslashbunny said:
My theory is that Jane did their taxes, but probably did them the way most Americans do their taxes (wrongly).

The Sanders know that if there are mistakes (being too liberal with deductions, etc), or even if it's not necessarily money saving but just wrong, that they'll get ripped apart by the media.

So, there's probably a boutique tax firm right now frantically going over their tax returns. It's right before tax season though, so finding a firm willing to do this is probably impossible and it's likely no firm will get around to doing this til after April 18.

So I think we'll see their tax return forms after April 18, after a firm has had time to correct/fix all the ones that can be amended, and explain what the problems are with the older ones so the Sanders can be preemptively ready to explain.

*edit: I think it's worth noting I doubt any of this is out of malice and there was no intent for commit fraud.
Click to expand...

I like this theory but doesn't it kind of assume that Sanders told an obvious lie about his tax returns with the intention of just, like, acknowledging that it was an obvious lie later?

That seems like a dangerous course for the most honest man in Washington.
 
C

CCS

Banned
backslashbunny said:
My theory is that Jane did their taxes, but probably did them the way most Americans do their taxes (wrongly).

The Sanders know that if there are mistakes (being too liberal with deductions, etc), or even if it's not necessarily money saving but just wrong, that they'll get ripped apart by the media.

So, there's probably a boutique tax firm right now frantically going over their tax returns. It's right before tax season though, so finding a firm willing to do this is probably impossible and it's likely no firm will get around to doing this til after April 18.

So I think we'll see their tax return forms after April 18, after a firm has had time to correct/fix all the ones that can be amended, and explain what the problems are with the older ones so the Sanders can be preemptively ready to explain.

*edit: I think it's worth noting I doubt any of this is out of malice and there was no intent for commit fraud.
Click to expand...

This sounds about right to me. You only need to look at some of the stuff in the UK right now to see that if you have an agenda you can make a mountain out of anything in tax returns (he says as someone who is quite enjoying it all) :p
 
G

goomba

Banned
can someone please explain this

Wyoming vote:
Bernie - 56 %
Clinton - 44 %

Wyoming Delegates awarded:
Bernie - 7
Clinton - 11

This superdelegate shit is disgustingly anti democratic and rigged against voters.
 
A

aTTckr

Member
goomba said:
can someone please explain this

Wyoming vote:
Bernie - 56 %
Clinton - 44 %

Wyoming Delegates awarded:
Bernie - 7
Clinton - 11

Wtf?
Click to expand...

That's only if you count superdelegates too (which doesn't make much sense, unless your goal is to rile up people). Pledged delegates went 7-7 if I recall correctly.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Gods I will be glad when this primary is over and we can stop with the faux outrage from Sanders fans over superdelegates.

You are aware that Sanders campaign's plan to win the nomination now specifically involves persuading super delegates from states that Hillary won to vote against her and for Sanders?

That the super delegates will back whoever has the most pledged delegates at the convention?

That Sanders is down by several *million* votes and that this isn't a close content, despite what certain sources are saying?
 
M

Maledict

Member
goomba said:
even at 7-7 its bullshit. 12 point win yet same amount of delegates?
Click to expand...

The state only had 14 delegates, it's the way the maths work.

I presume you are also outraged over the fact that Sanders has too many delegates compared to the number of votes cast for him? He over performs his vote totals because of the delegates he gets from the very unrepresentative caucus states, so I assume you think that is unfair and he should have less delegates than he does right now?
 
H

Holden

Member
goomba said:
even at 7-7 its bullshit. 12 point win yet same amount of delegates?
Click to expand...

ya the shit is so confusing

didn't Iowa go 49.9 vs 49.6 and yet she won 2 more delegates?
and here there is a 50/50 split even though there is a 12 point difference..?

can somebody explain pls? :(
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
A) Different states have different rules on how delegates are allocated. Delegates can be awarded proportionally at the district level, a mix of district and statewide, or just statewide. Caucuses have weirder and more complicated allocation rules in general.

edit: below has a better sense of it.
 
T

Trancos

Member
There are too few delegates (14 in total)
They were awarded by county and most counties only had 2 delegates which meant that you needed to make Hillary non viable to get both. All dcounty with 2 delegates ended in a tie (1 each) because he couldn't make her non viable.

Edit: or not?
Edit 2: fuck caucuses
 
G

goomba

Banned
Kristoffer said:
There is an easy explanation for this.

.557 * 14 = 7.80

There. Bernie gets 7 delegates, because he didn't reach the threshold for 8. Hillary gets the rest, which happens to be 7.
Click to expand...

Bernie: .56 * 14 = 7.84
Clinton: .44 * 14 = 6.16

Bernie is closer to 8
Clinton is closer to 6
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Holden said:
ya the shit is so confusing

didn't Iowa go 49.9 vs 49.6 and yet she won 2 more delegates?
and here there is a 50/50 split even though there is a 12 point difference..?

can somebody explain pls? :(
Click to expand...
Wikipedia said:
The delegate allocation to the Democratic National Convention is as follows: 29 districts delegates are split up between the 4 congressional districts. The First and Second Congressional Districts received 8 district delegates, the Third Congressional District received 7 and the Forth Congressional District received 6. These district delegates are elected at the District conventions based on the result in their Congressional District, not the state-wide vote.

At the State Convention, the 15 state-wide pledged delegates are elected based on the state-wide results. 9 of these delegates were At-Large and 6 were Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO) who are pledged in the same way the At-Large delegates are.
Click to expand...
Comes down to the delegates allocated to congressional districts. Despite the state being split, luck would have it that Clinton received more district delegates because of the way the voters were spread out.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
But anyway, the proportions don't matter. As others have said and I noted with Iowa, you win convention delegates by winning county delegates, and county delegates are won per county. So the discretization is what caused the error. You have to beat someone by more than the amount of discretization in order to make it to the next amount of delegates.
 
L

lednerg

Member
https://twitter.com/GMA/status/719483176100372480
Poll of who people would definitely not vote for:

Clinton: 49%
Sanders: 37%
Trump: 63%
Cruz: 55%
Kasich: 46%
CfweIflUIAA3UYn.jpg
Click to expand...

Bernie Fucking Sanders
 
M

Maledict

Member
goomba said:
does anyone really think such a system is democratic?
Click to expand...

I repeat my earlier comment.

Sanders has more delegates than he has % of the total vote. If the number of votes matched the number of delegates, he would have fewer delegates than he currently does.

I presume you agree this is also undemocratic and he should be doing less well than he is?
 
G

goomba

Banned
Maledict said:
I repeat my earlier comment.

Sanders has more delegates than he has % of the total vote. If the number of votes matched the number of delegates, he would have fewer delegates than he currently does.

I presume you agree this is also undemocratic and he should be doing less well than he is?
Click to expand...

Do you have any numbers breaking that claim down?

You presume wrong. I'm not even American, im just baffled at this ridiculous system they claim to be democratic.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
goomba said:
does anyone really think such a system is democratic?
Click to expand...

It's not a democratic process, it's a party process. The primary/caucus system for selecting the presidential candidate has only been around since the 70's, and has a lot of undemocratic elements. Caucuses themselves are incredibly undemocratic in that it is unavailable to a large portion of potential voters. (those that can be at a multi-hour event at one specific time of the day)
 
M

Maledict

Member
This faux outrage over votes from a campaign that is actively trying to overturn the will of voters in states that have already voted through dodgy behaviour at the selection stage, and then celebrating that fact, is ridiculous.

I understand people are sore over losing, and I understand they feel the system is stacked against them, but ignoring the fact that sanders has benefitted far more than Hillary from the stupid, fucked up rules of the democratic process is just shutting your eyes and singing at this point.
 
L

lednerg

Member
Maledict said:
This faux outrage over votes from a campaign that is actively trying to overturn the will of voters in states that have already voted through dodgy behaviour at the selection stage, and then celebrating that fact, is ridiculous.

I understand people are sore over losing, and I understand they feel the system is stacked against them, but ignoring the fact that sanders has benefitted far more than Hillary from the stupid, fucked up rules of the democratic process is just shutting your eyes and singing at this point.
Click to expand...

Or maybe it's simply a reaction to the weird-ass math. Case in point, the non-American asking about it, baffled at what's going on.

EDIT: Link for below

https://www.facebook.com/TheOliverStone/posts/1147268138630817:0
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
A long Facebook post from Oliver Stone all my friends have been sharing

"WHY I'M FOR BERNIE SANDERS

“When fear becomes collective, when anger becomes collective, it’s extremely dangerous. It is overwhelming… The mass media and the military-industrial complex create a prison for us, so we continue to think, see, and act in the same way… We need the courage to express ourselves even when the majority is going in the opposite direction… because a change of direction can happen only when there is a collective awakening… Therefore, it is very important to say, ‘I am here!’ to those who share the same kind of insight.” – Thich Nhat Hanh, Buddhist Monk, “The Art of Power.”

I’ve been in deep despair these last few months about our political landscape. This quote from Thich Nhat Hanh recently elevated my spirit, and I share it with you. Because I am—we are—still here! Though it’s clear that the die is cast and that Clinton will win -- that is, if you believe in numbers and materialism, but I don’t, not completely.

I enclose here several recent articles, which you need to read to understand how difficult a situation we’ll be in if we continue with a harder-line version of Obama. Hillary Clinton has effectively closed the door on peace, blasting both the Palestinian peace process and the Russians in the same week. NATO is her god, the best thing the ‘exceptional’ US has to export in this new “American Century.”

But who set this policy and who controls this country? Her point of view is steeped in the traditional post-World War II, Atlanticist, NATO-domination of the universe. It’s set in stone. No president it seems, no democratic vote, no dissenting media can alter this. We’re going to be in border, resource, and forever wars for the next 10, 20, 100 years, until Trump (who our Shadow Government will never allow to exercise power) actually said in his straight way of talking, “our cities go bust.” Our media has been drained and made callous by war, increasingly sensationalized by TV, looking for the next high in the next headline, the more outrageous the better. Modesty in American politics is dead—it’s better to be sensational. Ironically, as they call Trump unelectable (which he is), it leaves you to think Clinton is the ‘new normal’, in which case you’ve been deceived by the unnecessary dichotomy that Clinton is actually ‘respectable’ in the same way that Eisenhower/Dulles 1950s were respectable when we went about intervening and overthrowing governments in many countries. But the difference was they at least had the brains not to get into shooting wars. To suggest NATO should’ve expired in 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated, I suppose isn’t questionable anymore. NATO, which has expanded to 13 countries since 1991, must be supported and Clinton has been brainwashed by the neoconservatives to believe it’s about “Russian aggression” when it’s the United States that’s ensuring the greatest build-up on the European borders of Russia since Hitler did it in World War II.

We’re going to war—either hybrid in nature to break the Russian state back to its 1990s subordination, or a hot war (which will destroy our country). Our citizens should know this, but they don’t because our media is dumbed down in its ‘Pravda’–like support for our ‘respectable’, highly aggressive Government. We are being led, as C. Wright Mills said in the 1950s, by a Government full of “crackpot realists: in the name of realism they’ve constructed a paranoid reality all their own.” Our media has credited Hillary Clinton with wonderful foreign policy experience, unlike Trump, without really noting the results of her power-mongering. She’s comparable to Bill Clinton’s choice of Cold War crackpot Madeleine Albright as one of the worst Secretary of States we’ve had since…Condi Rice? Albright boasted, “If we have to use force it is because we are America; we are the indispensible nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future.” Hillary’s record includes supporting the barbaric ‘contras’ against the Nicaraguan people in the 1980s, supporting the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, supporting the ongoing Bush-Iraq War, the ongoing Afghan mess, and as Secretary of State the destruction of the secular state of Libya, the military coup in Honduras, and the present attempt at “regime change” in Syria. Every one of these situations has resulted in more extremism, more chaos in the world, and more danger to our country. Next will be the borders of Russia, China, and Iran. Look at the viciousness of her recent AIPAC speech (don’t say you haven’t been warned). Can we really bear to watch as Clinton “takes our alliance [with Israel] to the next level”? Where is our sense of proportion? Cannot the media, at the least, call her out on this extremism? The problem, I think, is this political miasma of “correctness” that dominates American thinking (i.e. Trump is extreme, therefore Hillary is not).

This is why I’m praying still for Bernie Sanders because he’s the only one willing, at least in the name of fiscal sanity, to cut back on our foreign interventions, bring the troops home, and with these trillions of dollars no longer wasted on malice, try to protect the ‘homeland’ by actually rebuilding it and putting money into its people, schools, and infrastructure.

Albert Camus, talking about the doomed Spanish Civil War in the 1930s wrote, “Men of my generation have had Spain in our hearts. It was there that they learned … that one can be right and yet be beaten, that force can vanquish spirit, and that there are times when courage is not rewarded.” It’s true the light was extinguished for generations in Spain. America was sleeping, but it finally did the right thing and went to war against Fascism. I believe Fascism is still our greatest enemy and its face is everywhere in our so-called ‘democracies.’ It was always about the moneyed interests that had the power. That is what Fascism is and that is the danger we are in now. Sanders talks about money, listen to him. He talks cogently about money and its power to distort. He’s the only one who has raised his voice against the corruption in our politics. Clinton has embraced this corruption."
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Sorry, I could not get past the part where he compares math with materialism. Like somehow it invalidates the results of the election. These people need to be told there is no contest going on to see who can out-delusion each other the most.
 
T

TheAbsolution

Member
Suikoguy said:
Sorry, I could not get past the part where he compares math with materialism. Like somehow it invalidates the results of the election. These people need to be told there is no contest going on to see who can out-delusion each other the most.
Click to expand...

CCS said:
That is one of the biggest loads of bollocks I've read so far this election.
Click to expand...
I've just stopped reading those types of posts entirely. My brain just tunes them out haha.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Suikoguy said:
Sorry, I could not get past the part where he compares math with materialism. Like somehow it invalidates the results of the election. These people need to be told there is no contest going on to see who can out-delusion each other the most.
Click to expand...
Bernie is our spiritual leader. He is above our material world and will lead us into a paradise without possession. Or math.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think we're really in some kind of social experiment now with the Wyoming caucus stuff. It just has so many obvious triggers. People picking on the superdelegates, not understanding rounding, citing Morning Joe, complaining about Citizens United...we definitely are being observed by the Tralfamadorians, right?
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Y2Kev said:
I think we're really in some kind of social experiment now with the Wyoming caucus stuff. It just has so many obvious triggers. People picking on the superdelegates, not understanding rounding, citing Morning Joe, complaining about Citizens United...we definitely are being observed by the Tralfamadorians, right?
Click to expand...

Honestly you'd think that Sanders was trailing by 1 delegate on not over 200 by the way some people are decrying fraud and villainy over Wyoming and a single delegate.
 
B

besada

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I think we're really in some kind of social experiment now with the Wyoming caucus stuff. It just has so many obvious triggers. People picking on the superdelegates, not understanding rounding, citing Morning Joe, complaining about Citizens United...we definitely are being observed by the Tralfamadorians, right?
Click to expand...
The conservatives are doing the same thing over on Freerepublic, where they're discussing burning the party down over Colorado:)

To be fair, it's not like most of the methods we use make much sense, or have any sort of long standing tradition. States monkey with their nomination procedues constantly, trying to control what happens. But hearing conservatives demand federal primary standards is fucking hilarious.
 
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