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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
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That's her coronation ring.
Macho Madness
Member
MoV for Obama in CT was 4% in 08
Macho Madness
Member
PPP dropping NY poll soon
Box of Kittens
Banned
That's a single poll taken in April for an election that will be in November. Those numbers aren't set in stone. Some people who say they won't vote for Clinton will change their minds in November when the heat of the primary is in the past and the reality that the alternative is Trump or Cruz sets in.
By the same token Sanders will benefit from the comparison to Trump and Cruz, but he'll also be hurt by the barrage of attacks he'll be facing in the general election. Right now he's benefiting from being relatively unknown in these numbers. People who say they'll vote for him now may not be so willing after ads attacking him for tax increases, socialism, Fidel Castro, bread lines, not believing in charity, etc. Would that hurt him enough to cost him the election given that he'd be facing Trump or Cruz? I don't know, but we can't just take these numbers at face value.
As always, the problem with the argument that Sanders is more electable because of polling numbers is that general election polls taken this far out don't really have predictive value.
User 463088
Banned
Delaware is so safe for Clinton. It was over 70% 45+ in 2008 and it's going to be 35%+ non-white.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
There was a big poll that you hinted about yesterday. Is this it?
Yeah, I actually agree with DWS here (!) that the media shouldn't include the supers in their state-by-state delegate count. It hasn't caused a lot of problems aside from New Hampshire and Wyoming, but it does give people an excuse to scream "THE SYSTEM IS RIGGED" for the sake of it.
But that's not what they want. They want Supers in States Bernie won to view for him to represent their state, but they want Supers in States Clinton won to vote for Bernie because of Bernmentum . . . or something.
On an unrelated topic, I can't quite put my finger on why the media is unwilling to point out that Clinton's delegate lead is insurmountable.
Tesseract
Banned
Bernie supporters are always upset about something.
Even with California looming, I don't think they'll have a choice after New York.
Connecticut is WTA by CD, so a 24% lead would mean Trump sweeps all CD delegates. There are 15 statewide delegates that are awarded proportionally unless Trump passes that 50% threshold, so even if he doesn't, he'll probably get about 23 delegates from the state. But crossing 50% might mean 5 or 6 more delegates so I hope he does.
Box of Kittens
Banned
The NY reporter whose Twitter Four_Chamber linked to made the point that Devine can probably help Sanders bow out gracefully when the primary is done and Weaver probably can't.
I know, the "unrelated" bit was sarcastic. They're also scoring higher demand for their ad time, and not just for the news channels but also for the other TV stations that their parent companies own.
My guess is that almost all of the Kasich voters are in CT-5, but that also includes Bridgeport so that could be enough for him to keep it.
Macho Madness
Member
Quinnipiac Poll
New York
(+- since last Q NY poll)
Clinton 53 (-1)
Sanders 40 (-4)
Trump 55 (-1)
Kasich 20 (+1)
Cruz 19 (-1)
New York
(+- since last Q NY poll)
Clinton 53 (-1)
Sanders 40 (-4)
Trump 55 (-1)
Kasich 20 (+1)
Cruz 19 (-1)
Give your family big hugs when Thanksgiving comes if Trump is nominee and goes down in electoral defeat.
Trump is sweeping all the delegates.
So everyone went down except for Kasich, but that might all be statistical noise, with the exception of Sanders.
Macho Madness
Member
Among Black voters in the NY poll:
Clinton 65
Sanders 28
White:
Clinton 50
Sanders 45
Clinton 65
Sanders 28
White:
Clinton 50
Sanders 45
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Except Trump generally underperforms compared to his poll numbers.
Literal reverse momentum!!
when were they supposed to come out.
No idea. Supposedly they polled over the weekend along with everyone else.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Is this true?
He more or less hit the mark in Wisconsin.
Hit the mark/over performed in NH and SC.
I haven't followed much else.
Macho Madness
Member
The story of the latest Q poll is that WI meant either negative momentum or nothing at all
To be clear, it can always be just "noise". As you put it, even a 4pt change may simply be sampling error depending on where we set the significance threshold for the null hypothesis.
We use the typical 95% and 99% thresholds to say that something is not "noise", but that's not precise to what the estimation actually means. In the perfect world, all of these comparisons would always be made making the significance levels clear.
...I have no idea why I typed all of this.
theprodigy
Member
This is a lie, Cruz overperforms his numbers but that does not mean Trump underperforms his.
User 463088
Banned
Oh it was Quinnipiac that's good too.
In the far corners of the land of Vermont.
An ancient socialist has awakened.
This summer:
The world will Bern
https://twitter.com/joshledermanAP/status/719914271937683457
Can Obama and Biden be any more obvious
Can Obama and Biden be any more obvious
I know. It's like, guys, wait just a minute.
Tesseract
Banned
You're sliding back my friend, please don't
Although I am on super thin ice with the mods, I dropped the satire. people need to take some of Carson's valium and chill, all this infighting over process is so dumb.
It's true, it seems like the (internet) fighting has slid down to pretty much mostly the process at this point.
Which yeah, is pretty dumb.
gutter_trash
Banned
why are 43% supporting a gun nut after what happened in Newtown?
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