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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
besada said:
It's not. He's just taking a little break. He'll be back looooong before Ekai:)
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It's scary when mods post about this because, if this board were an anime (which isn't a stretch given most avatars), it makes it sound like you've got them trapped in something. Scary haha.

Suikoguy said:
I'm more convinced Garland is a good choice after listening to the NPR piece on his work on the Oklahoma City Bombing case. People concerned about civil liberties should be pretty happy with the choice at least.

Text form of the piece:

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/19/47468...a-city-merrick-garland-forged-the-way-forward
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Enough GOP senators realize how dumb it is to withhold the vote on the guy. I think they cave around convention time. It'll help pad the headlines for them. They'll need it. As adam would say, that river's gonna burn for days.
RuPaulSomethingAboutFire.gif

NeoXChaos said:
welp
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God I love that. Any candidate coming out of this primary for the GOP has got to take on a full-blown 50 states strategy. At that point, it's less about losing and more about headlines and relevancy. Like, which red states would hurt the most narratively if they lost them? Southern states, but they could write it off as old democrats and black voters. I think if they lost some key Western states (largely white, been red for decades), they'd never hear the end of it. I think the GOP candidate is going to have to fight for states like Utah, and they could lose Georgia over it.
And if Texas goes, I'll drink for a month. Fuck finals.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Cybit said:
Nah - Bernie's an issue candidate. His entire goal has been to basically galvanize the Democratic party around taking on Wall Street much harder than they have, and he has pushed Clinton to commit to far more progressive policies than she would have without his presence (as happens to most general election candidates in a primary). Bernie's accomplished his goal, to be honest. (Unless Clinton gets into office and does fuck all about the economic issues)
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If he's accomplished his goal of preventing the Democratic Party from moving to the center on finance in the general, which maybe he has, do you think now he will stop firing salvos into the very legitimacy of the party?
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
CNN is reporting on the issues with the registration in Bronx.

Record turnout means you're probably getting a shit load of people who haven't voted in god knows how long or have moved, but due to the huge interest in the race forgot that they needed to re-register.

Also CNN is saying that Hillary seems to have the edge in terms of support.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Brawndo Addict said:
Was such a move nonetheless a weak and overtly insulting/unfair decision? Yes, I have to cop to that and admit that it lessens the level of discourse which I shouldn't be doing.
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Thanks for that. I'll try to think through some of the issues you raised and see if I can address them.

EDIT: Now, for less contentious Supreme Court discussion: Chief Justice Welcomes Deaf Lawyers into Supreme Court Bar

A dozen lawyers from the Deaf and Hard of Hearing Bar Association took the oath of admission—promising to conduct themselves “uprightly and according to the law”–which the chief justice oversees before an argument session.

After their sponsor, John Stanton, a Justice Department attorney and member of the association, moved their admission, Chief Justice Roberts gave the traditional response in sign language: “Your motion is now granted.” He then repeated the phrase in English.

A Supreme Court spokeswoman, Kathy Arberg, said the chief justice learned the phrase specifically for Tuesday’s ceremony.
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S

Souldriver

Member
I think it will be closer than we expect (less than 10 point difference), but hope it will be more. Just so it doesn't become even more of a mess with Clinton building up her lead yet somehow losing the night. If that were to happen, this primary campaign will officially go off the rails.
 
U

User 406

Banned
docbon said:
UnitedHealthcare to exit most Obamacare exchanges by 2017

More at the link: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/19/investing/unitedhealthcare-obamacare-exchanges-aca/

I don't have a whole lot of insight to add, so someone else could post a thread if they'd like.
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Yeah, there was a thread a good while back where they said they were going to do this, and my reaction is still the same:
giphy.gif


Fuck UHC.


ApharmdX said:
It seems, from where I'm sitting, that health insurance companies are hastening their own demise by leaving the exchanges? The writing is on the wall for them, we should see a real universal health care system in the US in the next generation.
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Bad ones like UHC, sure. They in particular gotten very large and profitable off of terrible plans and a laserlike focus on avoiding paying out claims. There is money to be made on the exchanges by smaller, hungrier outfits that aren't as far along on the path of inevitable death from cancerous shareholder demands, so I wouldn't count health insurance companies out altogether just yet. With a fix for the Medicaid gap in red states and some more improvements in cost controls, we should be on a good path forwards.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Really liking the exit poll numbers. Specially the 35% minority voters and the 84% older than 30.

If Hillary wins whites by any margin, this will be a curb stomp.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I think they've been decent this year

Sometimes they are very not good though
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They are useless for caucuses, primaries much less useless.
There is an advantage for New York that will improve their accuracy: there was no early voting or mail in voting in enough numbers to skew results.

If their sampling is sound, In all likelihood, they are more accurate than average.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
SO at least a 5 point gap for Clinton?

I don't know how to read these things.
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A higher percentage of Sanders supporters report being unwilling to vote for Clinton in the general than vice versa. A five point gap in the "would you be willing to vote for [candidate] in November" is really bad news for Sanders.

That having been said, you should always take unweighted exit polls with a grain of salt. They tend to have large errors, as anyone who suffered through 2004 knows.

That having been said, everything has been pointing to a bad night for Bernie these past few weeks.
 
I

Iolo

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
So how accurate are these early exit polls towards the final tallies?
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It is better not to get your hopes up with early exits. Subsequent waves should be more accurate, but can still be pretty far off.

Also note that all the numbers released---satisfaction with Obama's policies, degree of liberalness, trust in Clinton, composition of electorate---are interrelated. If the sample is off on one it will be off on all.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Cybit said:
Nah - Bernie's an issue candidate. His entire goal has been to basically galvanize the Democratic party around taking on Wall Street much harder than they have, and he has pushed Clinton to commit to far more progressive policies than she would have without his presence (as happens to most general election candidates in a primary). Bernie's accomplished his goal, to be honest. (Unless Clinton gets into office and does fuck all about the economic issues)
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This is wrong. Bernie regrets not going negative early in the campaign. They didn't stay positive early on because they were being good sports, they were positive because Bernie thought they would win. Once they started losing repeatedly at the ballot box, he started breaking all the limits they had previously put in place. They thought they were Obama '08.

This is not someone who's aware they're on a Quixotic campaign.
 
A

ApharmdX

Banned
Captain Pants said:
It was weird reading what he said about Israel and watching the reactions to it, because it was one of the first times where I was in complete agreement with his stance.
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Yes, but he's outpaced the Democratic electorate on this issue. I did some reading a couple of months back and support for one-sided pro-Israel policy, which Clinton subscribes to, is worst among younger liberals, which are Bernie's base, but older liberals still support pro-Israel policy by a good bit. It's the same as other Sanders positions, where I think we'll see a liberal president get elected with these positions, but we aren't quite ready/he's not the candidate to make this happen.

Sea Manky said:
Yeah, there was a thread a good while back where they said they were going to do this, and my reaction is still the same:
giphy.gif


Fuck UHC.




Bad ones like UHC, sure. They in particular gotten very large and profitable off of terrible plans and a laserlike focus on avoiding paying out claims. There is money to be made on the exchanges by smaller, hungrier outfits that aren't as far along on the path of inevitable death from cancerous shareholder demands, so I wouldn't count health insurance companies out altogether just yet. With a fix for the Medicaid gap in red states and some more improvements in cost controls, we should be on a good path forwards.
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I don't see a path forwards (20 years out, say) that depends on providers at all. But until then, maybe you're right, and there will be leaner competitors in the exchanges keeping the system working as intended.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
also god damn my schedule being so busy tomorrow (partaking in an economic experiment for a quick bit of cash, then touring special improvement districts downtown), otherwise i'd be celebration-drinking right now
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I overdid it so hard on Sunday and spent all of yesterday in bed and wanting to die. I don't think I'll be having any celebratory drinks tonight.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Result almost doesn't even matter. Win by however much has been delegitimized.

Bernie will go to the convention and argue Hillary is corrupt and should be given the nomination because she cheated, used dirty money, and if he doesn't get the nom will run as an independent because the country can't handle another corrupt politician in office.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
ApharmdX said:
It seems, from where I'm sitting, that health insurance companies are hastening their own demise by leaving the exchanges? The writing is on the wall for them, we should see a real universal health care system in the US in the next generation.
Click to expand...

There is a demand within many insurance companies to pay out as little in insurance claims as possible and maximize profits. UHC is such a company and they provide a lot of junk dental and healthcare plans. I'm not surprised they bolted given that people who buy into the exchanges actually use their insurance.

I tend to think there's a pretty clear path to single payer here, and it's not something that hasn't crossed the minds of folks who wrote the bill as well as many journalists who continue to cover it. If you increase the Medicaid income requirement threshold and increase Medicaid reimbursement fees (which probably entails a tax increase) you can slowly work towards a Medicare For All type reality.

I'd suggest changing the name as well, to avoid the stigma of Medicaid. It worked for Stringer Bell.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
H

Hazmat

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Result almost doesn't even matter. Win by however much has been delegitimized.

Bernie will go to the convention and argue Hillary is corrupt and should be given the nomination because she cheated, used dirty money, and if he doesn't get the nom will run as an independent because the country can't handle another corrupt politician in office.
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Nah, he's definitely not running as an independent and he'll most likely concede after the last primary. California being so close and so late means he'll stay in to keep his score as close to Clinton's as possible, but he's not going to the convention.
 
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