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[Aaron Strife]

Why has no one polled Indiana

Christ

If I'm trump I go camp in that state for the remainder of the campaign

There's a law against robopolling there so it's rarely done. Live interview polls are far more expensive.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

So my mom said that after Sandy people were allowed to vote in locations that they weren't registered for, but when they did it basically fucked up that persons registration because of the new location.

Any article or truth to this?

 

[i_am_ben]

I hope Clinton brings the salt Carthage style tonight.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So my mom said that after Sandy people were allowed to vote in locations that they weren't registered for, but when they did it basically fucked up that persons registration because of the new location.

Any article or truth to this?

Dunno. People were allowed to vote in different locations but only in the statewide federal elections (Pres and senate)

 

[ugaboga232]

I hope Clinton brings the salt Carthage style tonight.

If I am elected president, we will salt the vermont syrup lands and end their powerful syrup backed empire.

 

[blackaroni]

Yikes.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Josh Marshall ‏@joshtpm 1m
Early exits, Grain o Salt: 18-29s, Bern 69, Hill 31; Af-Americans Bern 24, Hill 76.

FUCK!

Spoiler

These are really unsurprising, though 18-29s looks closer than it has been for a few states

 

[B-Dubs]

...he can't be legitimately that not self-aware, right? I could have sworn there were multiple articles during his winning spree where his campaign talked about how surprised they were at their success, and how it actually moved him to trying to go for a win rather than just push the issue. But there's no way he thought from the beginning he was Obama '08, right?

Well, his campaign did feel more like a 2008 campaign than it did a 2016 one at the outset. Hell, it still does.

So my mom said that after Sandy people were allowed to vote in locations that they weren't registered for, but when they did it basically fucked up that persons registration because of the new location.

Any article or truth to this?

I don't think that was the issue with the registrations, but we did allow voting anywhere in the city after Sandy.

 

[shinra-bansho]

That seems like a less than stellar under-30 performance for him compared to past results. But I'm too lazy to check.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

That seems like a less than stellar under-30 performance for him compared to past results. But I'm too lazy to check.

I feel like he's usually over 70%. It's not that far off though.

 

[ugaboga232]

That seems like a less than stellar under-30 performance for him compared to past results. But I'm too lazy to check.

It is but also early exit polls so who knows

 

[ivysaur12]

FUCK!

Spoiler

These are really unsurprising, though 18-29s looks closer than it has been for a few states

Yeah, those are a lot closer than in some past states.

 

[Macho Madness]

On the Democratic side, Clinton was leading among Hispanic voters, 57-43 percent.

 

[Trancos]

That seems like a less than stellar under-30 performance for him compared to past results. But I'm too lazy to check.

Neogaf statistic demographic model:

"We are too lazy to check"

 

[Y2Kev]

Surprising change from Nevada where he crushed her with Hispanics.

 

[eBay Huckster]

On the Democratic side, Clinton was leading among Hispanic voters, 57-43 percent.

that puts Clinton somewhere around 68-32 among people of color (so basically 70-30), pending exits (if any) including Asians

that's assuming they aren't underestimating her again

 

[Suikoguy]

Surprising change from Nevada where he crushed her with Hispanics.

You won't let that go will you? lol

 

[NeoXChaos]

2 weeks ago

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well, his campaign did feel more like a 2008 campaign than it did a 2016 one at the outset. Hell, it still does.

I really wonder how much of it is simply Sanders buying into his own hype. Plenty of Sanders supporters, trying to rationalize after the fact pointed to Obama running slightly behind Clinton at first and overtaking her. And I think a lot of people assume things about the 08 cycle because they weren't paying attention or have forgotten certain things about it. The big ones being that Obama was this horrible underdog the whole time and him winning was a huge upset for the establishment, except he was never that far behind and plenty of people in the establishment supported him.

I had sooo many people show me the national polls from 2007 showing Obama down and that Bernie would make a similar reversal. Ignoring that Edwards among others were still pulling significant numbers creating a clouded comparison and that Obama was taken very seriously once he actually started winning. They've created a narrative about 08 to explain why 2016 would be another upset when that narrative doesn't reflect reality to begin with.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Grains of salt etc. But these exits do seem to point to Clinton stomping.

The under 30 share seems small. Again too lazy to check. His margin seems smaller.

The AA share is larger. Her margins are about normal.

Continue Obama's policies.

I guess he could make up some in over 30s white people upstate?

 

[Suikoguy]

NeoXChaos, keeping us from being lazy. (or is that, enabling us to be lazy since he does the work?)

 

[Macho Madness]

Oh god she's winning black voters by 50

 

[ivysaur12]

Grains of salt etc. But these exits do seem to point to Clinton stomping.

The under 30 share seems small. Again too lazy to check. His margin seems smaller.

The AA share is larger. Her margins are about normal.

Continue Obama's policies.

I guess he could make up some in over 30s white people upstate?

But the margin has been 50/50 upstate in most polls. I don't think over 30s white people in upstate NY are going to be that much more receptive to stop a blow out.

Oh god she's winning black voters by 50

And, that's it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

reminder chat goes up in 1 and half hours. I gonna make it public briefly so adam can join.

 

[Clefargle]

If I am elected president, we will salt the vermont syrup lands and end their powerful syrup backed empire.

No joke, I had a Canadian tell me they would cut us off from the syrupy goodness of Trump is elected

FUCK

 

[Armaros]

Have we seen this PPP Maryland Poll?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

Clinton:58%
Sanders:33%

Trump:43%
John Kasich:29%
Ted Cruz:24%

Looks about right for Maryland on the Dem Side. And the other two have a bit of ground to even hope to catching Trump, but its not NY level.s

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I wonder if the "Southern Democrats don't count" dog whistle nonsense was the final nail in the coffin for Bernie and African Americans.

 

[Macho Madness]

40% total minority vote on Dem side, up from 30% in 2008

 

[PBY]

Have we seen this PPP Maryland Poll?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

Clinton:58%
Sanders:33%

Trump:43%
John Kasich:29%
Ted Cruz:24%

Get fucked ted

clap clap clap clap clap

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I haven't looked at the math lately but iirc Trump winning Indiana could put him back on the path towards winning the nomination outright. What if Trump offered Pence the VP spot in exchange for an endorsement. Doubt it will happen, and obviously IN will be tough for Trump to win given the amount of #NeverTrump+Cruz work being put in there...but it's interesting nonetheless.

Yeah, him getting Indiana could do it. Sam Wang was saying the same thing recently. Of the guys I follow, he seems like the most optimistic on Trump's odds and the numbers he gives him in Indiana seem like the big reason why.

 

[NeoXChaos]

40% total minority vote on Dem side, up from 30% in 2008

Bye bye bernie

 

[eBay Huckster]

40% total minority vote on Dem side, up from 30% in 2008

combined with the percentages of the minority vote provided a few minutes ago: 50/50 white vote gets Clinton to 58-42, 45/55 gets a 55-45 win, anything more favorable to Clinton amplifies Kev's derisive laughter by one decibel per tenth of a percent until her white vote share hits 60%, at which point it's already powerful enough to kill

 

[danm999]

40% total minority vote on Dem side, up from 30% in 2008

Sounds like a bloodbath incoming.

 

[Brinbe]

Deeeelicious. Two hours till the salt flows. And next Tuesday will be even more of a stomp.

It's okay though, bernie's totally gonna win by 60 in CA.

 

[Prodigal Son]

lol so Anonymous has beef with Clinton.

 

[gutter_trash]

40% total minority vote on Dem side, up from 30% in 2008

I have a very good idea where that 10% of White voters went

 

[VendettaRed07]

Always cheated never defeated.

 

[TheAbsolution]

So CNN has an entirely different set just for Erin Burnett's hour of coverage lol

 

[darkside31337]

Deeeelicious. Two hours till the salt flows. And next Tuesday will be even more of a stomp.

It's okay though, bernie's totally gonna win by 60 in CA.

Its NY so prepare for more like 4 hours

 

[i_am_ben]

If I am elected president, we will salt the vermont syrup lands and end their powerful syrup backed empire.

Hillary should end all future speeches with "Ceterum autem censeo sanders esse delendam" and then drop the mic.

 

[Jimmy King]

Jeff Weaver "either candidate would be preferable to the Republican"

 

[johnsmith]

It's really not fair that red states like New York and Massachusetts have so many delegates in the dem primary.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Jeff Weaver "either candidate would be preferable to the Republican"

But bernie as an independent would be better than both!

If the turn out is high, he can win the general.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Come back soon Adam

Also.. I think it actually might be a great sign if Pence endorses Donnie because it might get an idea how Indiana is leaning possibly?

I want to believe.. I want to believe.

I have PBR. Like a real Southern American.

Slo will be proud of you.

So you've given up being a Euro and settled for being a Southerner, I'm proud of you Konka.

No true southerner would add pineapple on their pizza.. No way.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Vince Foster again!

Jesus, the smear machine was effective on that one.

 

[RastaMentality]

EXIT POLL: 72% of NY Dems say Clinton energized the party. 64% say Sanders did. #Decision2016 http://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/722555415964164096/photo/1

 

[Jimmy King]

Weaver getting lit up on MSNBC

 

[VendettaRed07]

It's really not fair that red states like New York and Massachusetts have so many delegates in the dem primary.

Bill Clinton's car is responsible for at least 100 delegates.

 

[superdeluxe]

FUCK!

Spoiler

These are really unsurprising, though 18-29s looks closer than it has been for a few states

Wasn't under 30 16% percent of voters?

 

[Aaron Strife]

But bernie as an independent would be better than both!

If the turn out is high, he can win the general.

First of all, probably not

Second, Bernie himself has said he's not running independent so I really wish his supporters would stop pushing this

Spoiler

unless you're being sarcastic