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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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I

ivysaur12

Banned
If these are right, which, again, early.

‏@SteveKornacki
NY Dem electorate (first wave of exits):

White 62%
Black 21%
Latino 13%
Asian 1%
Click to expand...

Black vote is 75 Hill, 25 Bern. Hill: 15.75, Bern: 5.25
Latino vote 57 Hill, 43 Bern. Hill: 7.41, Bern: 5.59
Asian: ?
White vote, let's try 50/50. Hill: 31, Bern: 31

Total

Hill: 54.16
Bern: 41.84

This does not add up to 100.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
Given 8 years of obstruction obviously have not helped the GOP to undo the Democrats' presidential chances, and indeed have arguably been one of the biggest contributors to the energizing of the "no compromise" wing that Cruz and Trump play to, I have to wonder if there is any intention among the GOP to be a little less obstructionist moving forward. If Hillary wins two terms in office, the ACA will be a 15-year-old bill by the end, heck it'll be an 11 year-old bill by the end of her first term, so by that point, repealing it will be just as much of a logistical and bureaucratic headache as keeping it in the first place supposedly is, and it will be status quo enough that the political will to do so will be dampened. Paul Ryan has gone back on some of his earlier economic silliness, has attempted to do minority outreach like was called for in the 2012 GOP post mortem, and is just generally positioning himself to be the most nationally prominent GOP figure when Trump goes down in flames, because he clearly desires to run for president when he thinks the time is right and when some of the stink of 2012 has wafted off of him. If he's smart, and I think he is, he'll try to steer the party back toward the center and engage in some actual governance as a show of good faith, perhaps steer the message toward "fixing Obamacare" rather than repealing it, but I'm not sure if his party is ready to realign itself just yet.
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Easily, I think. This wave of 2010 obstruction candidates is going to get blown out hard, and their own base will continue to primary the moderates until they're all gone or a blowout proves that no one likes the Tea Party. I think that blowout is this general election. If Hillary can blast Trump hard, then it'll basically shut up that part of the base for years. They won't donate that much or put in time, but they'll quietly pull the lever for (R) in each election, and people like Ryan (who want to actually govern somewhat) will steer the message.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Slayven said:
Link to these Chris Mathews videos?
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not sure they'll be up before tomorrow, but basically he ranted that it's one thing if he campaigns against clinton about it, but it's disingenuous as fuck to bring in all of elected washington in an ad attacking speaking fees

considering the regulations literally prohibit taking a cent for a speech if you're a sitting member of congress
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
new thread preview

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Bernies legacy isn't going to be bringing lefter policy. What he's going to accomplish is making if easier for insurgent candidates and weaking party power and parties ability to self govern. I don't know if that's a good thing tbh.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
So what's the effective impact of the purging issue? It sounds like a long list of names were simply not purged when they should have been with that whole "6 month delay" thing. As they weren't, they're tied to wherever they were registered in, thus they cannot vote at wherever they do show up?

The media is not doing the best job of trying to explain this. I know it's 120,000 people that could theoretically vote, but if they had not kept their registration fresh wouldn't they be dropped regardless?
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
aspiegamer said:
So what's the effective impact of the purging issue? It sounds like a long list of names were simply not purged when they should have been with that whole "6 month delay" thing. As they weren't, they're tied to wherever they were registered in, thus they cannot vote at wherever they do show up?

The media is not doing the best job of trying to explain this. I know it's 120,000 people that could theoretically vote, but if they had not kept their registration fresh wouldn't they be dropped regardless?
Click to expand...

I don't think it's 120,000 people, I think that's the back log of old/invalid names/people that needed to be removed due to moving, not voting and other stuff.

So it's a list of old info where it's possible some people were caught in the crossfire, at least that's how I read it.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Sea Manky said:
Be fair, he had to snipe the last thread really early to do his "hey I just watched something" title,
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bananas never messaged me, and I was never clued in to the process here. I can't read EVERY post in this thread! Besides, RustyNails has me queued for this one, so no one can claim sniping.

Sea Manky said:
...so he probably had little time.
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Kristoffer said:
I posted a little early because I'll be gone tonight. I guess just post there when this fills up.
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Y2Kev said:
Don't put a curse in the thread title please.
Click to expand...

I've never done this before. :/
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
I don't think it's 120,000 people, I think that's the back log of old/invalid names/people that needed to be removed due to moving, not voting and other stuff.

So it's a list of old info where it's possible some people were caught in the crossfire, at least that's how I read it.
Click to expand...
If it's old info and persons who should have been purged, why is there super controversy? The fact that these people are registered (at any location) would be due to municipal incompetence. They wouldn't have been able to vote anyway, correct?
 
T

Trancos

Member
If past Ny elections are anything to go by this is going to be a long night. 538 has a post about last election (2010) being called at 11 pm and that was a 20pts victory.
Upstate New York get counted first so maybe Bernie start the count winning. If he starts losing by 5+ margin then it's an awful night for him when NYC comes through.
 
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