User 463088
Banned
With Vice President Justin Beiber.
A ticket that no one, no one, could refuse to want to knock the hell out of.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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With Vice President Justin Beiber.
A ticket that no one, no one, could refuse to want to knock the hell out of.
User 463088
Banned
I actually don't think there will be a Bradley effect when it comes to Hillary. I feel like her gender is so secondary to her as a person. I mean, people have an opinion on her right now. I don't think a large enough percentage of people are going to walk in the booth and gender is the thing that makes them change their mind.
It's politically correct to hate Hillary Clinton.
VendettaRed07
Member
I don't want to believe that Trump has the ability to win more states than Barry Goldwater
eBay Huckster
Member
he's gonna win somewhere between Dukakis and Dole, imo
It's hard to judge. Vox did an article today about how asking men whether they make more money than their spouses caused a 24-point swing from Hillary to Trump in a study. (Although women moved 12 points towards Hillary.) Sanders did not have the same effect.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/29/11325962/hillary-male-voters-trump-gender
It's not probative, but it's something to be worried about.
But I actually separated out the effect of misogyny from the Bradley effect. I think there will be a good number of voters who will just lie to pollsters and say they don't plan to vote for Trump.
I mean, wouldn't you?
User 463088
Banned
I could be totally wrong on this for a number of reasons. Firstly, I don't get misogyny nor how a sexist idiot's mind works (thank god!) Secondly, I'm going more on feeling that anything. I don't feel people will worry about being labeled sexist in refusing to vote for Hillary. There's enough BS that someone who wants to hate her can grab onto. Gender is so far down the list that I just don't see it being a huge driver of anti-Hillary vote.
That Vox article is interesting, but I'm going to see some more data points. As to the Trump thing, I'm not sure a lot of his supporters are ashamed of supporting him. There may be some, but a lot of them are freaking proud as hell he's doing and saying the shit he is.
I don't think it'll be enough to make a huge difference at anyrate.
Well, it is bullshit.
Lord. Not enough tea in the world man. Going to laugh my ass off watching her stroll into office in a freaking landslide.
Bodies will be caught from all these posters bookmarked talking about how she can't win vs Donald and how there's no way Trump can lose and blah blah blah.
The shell shock is going to be REAL brehs.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, the only way they make any sense is if the general election was done via caucus. But it's not!
theprodigy
Member
...now I'm trying to imagine what the general election done entirely via caucus would even be like lol
Larry's map.
tbh I'd push Montana into Likely GOP (Obama only lost it by 3 in 2008) but whatever.
This seem's awfully conservative for the party ending disaster everybody's predicting. That's not even as good as 2008.
eBay Huckster
Member
to be fair, sabato was conservative on his 2012 prediction (picked 290-248 + a 53-47 Senate)
if he's off by about the same margin, that's probably 396-142 feat. a comically huge senate majority
Thunder Monkey
Banned
The intent is a positive in the civics sense.
To get people of slightly opposing viewpoints talking one on one.
In practice it amounts to people chanting "Feel the Bern!" while the other side of the room bellows "We're with her!"
At least I started an "Anyone but Trump!"
I'd prefer a clean primary myself. The team sport aspect of it all becomes disgustingly apparent in situations like caucuses.
Also the time it takes to cacusues is absurd. Even when things are going smoothly
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Which kills turnout generally.
My problem with caucuses, more so than the potential arguing and peer pressure, is that it just seems so fucking time consuming the way some states do it. People have jobs and lives to get back to. I don't have time to sit in a room full of people while I'm counted multiple times.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
NYCmetsfan
Banned
we should elect presidents by hunger games IMO
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I think you guys are being too conservative with AZ.
It's going blue this November baby!
My brown brothers and sisters are going to come out in droves.
McCain will run ads decrying some Trump statements, hamper Republican turnout, while Latinos will be out in force.
Going to be a fun one to watch.
It's going blue this November baby!
My brown brothers and sisters are going to come out in droves.
McCain will run ads decrying some Trump statements, hamper Republican turnout, while Latinos will be out in force.
Going to be a fun one to watch.
I want to see more polls first.
EDIT: lol omg
http://ktar.com/story/970171/donald...na-poll-predicting-general-election-face-off/
Retromelon
Member
New yorks primary rules are stupid af. Im never going to get to vote for bernie 
Montana and North Dakota will be as close as Indiana and South Carolina IMO.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Understandable.
I just have fresh Hopium running through my veins right now. My facebook has been filled with hardcore Kansas conservatives scared of what their party is becoming because of Trump.
Page after page of "He'll be a disaster for the country!" "He doesn't represent me!"
They are legit freaked. So I apologize for butting in, and say some variation of "This was always going to be the end result of the Republican party focusing so much on social issues, immigration policy (while doing nothing to change it), and worship of the rich. A loudmouth rich demagogue, focusing on hatred of people you know, has hoodwinked a large portion of your party. Remember this in November. You don't have to vote for him. Voting for him will give his ideas weight. Making it more likely that his harmful rhetoric, and empty bravado become norms in politics."
Then they liked it.
So I'm running on 100% pure hopium right now.
Larry's map.
tbh I'd push Montana into Likely GOP (Obama only lost it by 3 in 2008) but whatever.
(I'll take it!)
Kind of feel like Clinton is a bad fit for those Midwestern/Prairie states, save for NE-02 which is more urban and sub-urban than anything else.
Lawd, can we change the Constitution so that Canadians can run for President. Someone open a window and get me a fainting couch. Jesus is a biscuit, let hims sop me up.
This courthouse* has people in it.
*I don't know what this building actually is I'm sorry Poligaf.
User 463088
Banned
I want bigger margins than Obama 08 and Clinton 96.
I want their biggest electoral defeat in a half century to come from Hillary Clinton.
I want Queen to ride into the White House on their tears and gnashing teeth. And I want the to have to eat it alll. ALLL of it.
I want their biggest electoral defeat in a half century to come from Hillary Clinton.
I want Queen to ride into the White House on their tears and gnashing teeth. And I want the to have to eat it alll. ALLL of it.
I know it has a small chance of happening, but could you imagine what it'd be like if the Republicans fuck Trump out of the nomination and he runs third party, and then Bernie Sanders runs third party?
There is something so damn gratifying about this scenario. To lose yet again.. to her? Delicious. It's the kind of thing that would get even further inside their heads, like Obama has over the past decade.
User 463088
Banned
Then the DSCC should decide if we're going to keep giving funds to Bernie.
Awful nice chairmanship positions you've got there Mr. Sanders. Would be a shame if something happened to them...
Thequietone
Member
The revolution is one man. He will single handedly pass all of his laws and policies without the senate or house. Feel the Bern!!!
Please, apply some Chillary to that Bern and heal this nation.
excelsiorlef
Member
Oh yeah. Fuck.
I wouldn't do that until after the nomination and is secure and Sanders decides to be a dick and not campaign for Hillary.
If he's still an asshole by the time she wins...crucify him.
I'm being harsh, but this I'm fully on the "Fuck Sanders in every way possible" train.
Posting for easier viewing because I really cant stand his stance on this:
And him getting dragged, and rightfully so:
The sad thing is he cannot claim ignorance. He knows that he cannot do any of the things he wants to do alone policy wise, yet his attitude on these things is so ridiculous.
Macho Madness
Member
Yeah the funny thing is seeing support for primarying candidates but nothing else.
Sanders has convinced some people that the Democratic party is the enemy of progressive change. And they certainly aren't perfect angels when it comes to that but uhhh the GOP is not a fringe party just because you say so.
User 463088
Banned
The problem is, are any of the down ballot Dems good enough for Saint Bernie? He's not going to support Strickland, for instance.
Well historically socialists always had a affinity for dictatorial forms of government, so this is Bernie just showing his authenticity.
Democrats are literally, and I mean LITERALLY the reason this country isn't a fucking shithole.
The idea that they are an enemy of progressive change is laughable.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'll disagree with you there, we are not to that level of negativity yet.
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