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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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ampere

Member
I loathe them both...but from an electoral standpoint, with Cruz you know what he's going to do. He's a politician. He's predictable. Trump is a lose canon. He'll fire in any direction at any time. He'll say something on Monday, reverse it on Tuesday, and create a faux outrage on Wednesday. He's harder to pin down. Cruz, you know what you have. There aren't going to be any LOL voters for him.

Cruz is a worse dude, and probably easier to beat for reasons you stated. And Susan Sarandon wouldn't have Trump to vote for so that's a plus!
 

Fox318

Member
I loathe them both...but from an electoral standpoint, with Cruz you know what he's going to do. He's a politician. He's predictable. Trump is a lose canon. He'll fire in any direction at any time. He'll say something on Monday, reverse it on Tuesday, and create a faux outrage on Wednesday. He's harder to pin down. Cruz, you know what you have. There aren't going to be any LOL voters for him.

Right now Trump is a dealer. He is selling shit desperate to people who need it even though it might kill them.

Cruz is a user who is telling people that the drug is a cure and wants people to join a jim jones type group.
 
Doesn't there, you know, have to be a VP at the convention? Are the delegates gonna choose someone for that too or...?

ap_donald-trump-sarah-palin_ap-photo-wi-e1453380689474-640x480.jpg


The pact has already been made.
 
Cruz is a worse dude, and probably easier to beat for reasons you stated. And Susan Sarandon wouldn't have Trump to vote for so that's a plus!

Ya, I'm arguing that Cruz is easier to beat. But, I think they're both terrible candidates. I think we can take either of them, hopefully fairly easily.

Right now Trump is a dealer. He is selling shit desperate to people who need it even though it might kill them.

Cruz is a user who is telling people that the drug is a cure and wants people to join a jim jones type group.

Ya, I can agree with you. It's just, I don't think America will go for either of them.

With Trump, I think we guarantee a high minority turnout. I think the GOP is fucked either way, to be honest.
 
I had Sylvia's for lunch today. Making it a good harlem day.

When I was there over XMas I went to Amy Ruth's cuz I was told that was the real deal.

And let me tell you, as a Southern Californian whose only foray into the South has been New Orleans but missed out on fried chicken...

It was a religious experience, man. It was so fucking good.


Since y'all probably care, I made spaghetti and turkey meatballs for myself...well, I made it Sunday but had leftovers. Caprese salad, Basil I grew myself. Can't wait til my tomatoes come in.

Last night I had a salad, cast-iron grilled thin pork chops, roasted asparagus.

Straight male in poli-gaf who can cook!!!!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
When I was there over XMas I went to Amy Ruth's cuz I was told that was the real deal.

And let me tell you, as a Southern Californian whose only foray into the South has been New Orleans but missed out on fried chicken...

It was a religious experience, man. It was so fucking good.


Since y'all probably care, I made spaghetti and turkey meatballs for myself...well, I made it Sunday but had leftovers. Caprese salad, Basil I grew myself. Can't wait til my tomatoes come in.

Last night I had a salad, cast-iron grilled thin pork chops, roasted asparagus.

Straight male in poli-gaf who can cook!!!!

The things I would do for Amy Ruth's...

I had a friend who went to Columbia we'd go there sometimes

I also made spaghetti and meatballs tonight!
 
When I was there over XMas I went to Amy Ruth's cuz I was told that was the real deal.

And let me tell you, as a Southern Californian whose only foray into the South has been New Orleans but missed out on fried chicken...

It was a religious experience, man. It was so fucking good.


Since y'all probably care, I made spaghetti and turkey meatballs for myself...well, I made it Sunday but had leftovers. Caprese salad, Basil I grew myself. Can't wait til my tomatoes come in.

Last night I had a salad, cast-iron grilled thin pork chops, roasted asparagus.

Straight male in poli-gaf who can cook!!!!

Reporting in!

Haven't made much lately, but I've got the fixings for some mini-Calzones I'm planning to throw together over the weekend. Ricotta, Mozzerella, Pepperoni, diced tomatoes and onions, mmmmm
 

pigeon

Banned
Right now Trump is a dealer. He is selling shit desperate to people who need it even though it might kill them.

Cruz is a user who is telling people that the drug is a cure and wants people to join a jim jones type group.

I think this is actually backwards, because Cruz has never been a true believer. He's just a very good politician.

So Cruz is the drug dealer here. Trump is a guy who has done a lot of meth and now has a lot of stuff he wants to tell you and also a shotgun.
 

Bowdz

Member
He's basically Trump policy-wise though. I don't think he has wider appeal or more willingness to tow the party line.

I think they try to give it to someone who isn't running.

I mentioned it yesterday, but Cruz is basically Trump with most the downside and none of the upside. It's a terrible position to be in and the Clinton campaign has said they'd prefer Cruz as the opponent for that very reason.
 

pigeon

Banned
Also, this story may be from August, but it's truly amazing.

business insider said:
According to a 1990 Vanity Fair interview, Ivana Trump once told her lawyer Michael Kennedy that her husband, real-estate mogul Donald Trump, now a leading Republican presidential candidate, kept a book of Hitler's speeches near his bed.

"Last April, perhaps in a surge of Czech nationalism, Ivana Trump told her lawyer Michael Kennedy that from time to time her husband reads a book of Hitler's collected speeches, My New Order, which he keeps in a cabinet by his bed...."

When Brenner asked Trump about how he came to possess Hitler's speeches, "Trump hesitated" and then said, "Who told you that?"

"I don't remember," Brenner reportedly replied.

Trump then recalled, "Actually, it was my friend Marty Davis from Paramount who gave me a copy of 'Mein Kampf,' and he's a Jew."

Brenner added that Davis did acknowledge that he gave Trump a book about Hitler.

"But it was 'My New Order,' Hitler's speeches, not 'Mein Kampf,'" Davis reportedly said. "I thought he would find it interesting. I am his friend, but I'm not Jewish."

http://www.businessinsider.com/dona...-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8

THE NEXT GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
 
The things I would do for Amy Ruth's...

I had a friend who went to Columbia we'd go there sometimes

I also made spaghetti and meatballs tonight!

I got the Obama and ate all of it in one sitting (cornbread, Mac n cheese, fried okra too!). Honestly, I don't know how...with the amount of food I had been eating that entire week. Even my girl was in shock (she ate half her Reggie Harris).

Fuck. That day I ate at Absolute Bagels, tried Shake Shack (meh), then Amy Ruth's, and finished with Levain Bakery Cookies. I was such a pig.

Reminded me of my college days...I don't think I could have afforded college in NYC. Too much to eat and I was a human garbage disposal...


Haven't made much lately, but I've got the fixings for some mini-Calzones I'm planning to throw together over the weekend. Ricotta, Mozzerella, Pepperoni, diced tomatoes and onions, mmmmm

Love to hear more people cooking. I love cooking for myself or others. I try to eat out only once, maybe twice a week. Cooking at home is so much better for you and often tastier.
 

pigeon

Banned
Just to clarify on how many parts of this story are amazing:

1. Trump keeps a book by Adolf Hitler near his bed and reads it often.
2. Trump DOES NOT KNOW WHICH BOOK BY ADOLF HITLER IT IS, DESPITE READING IT OFTEN.
3. Trump thinks it is a reasonable defense to say that a Jew gave him the book.
4. The guy Trump thinks is a Jew ISN'T EVEN A JEW, HE JUST WORKS IN HOLLYWOOD AND SO TRUMP ASSUMED HE MUST BE A JEW.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Are there specific crosstabs from exits that people are referring to re: doing better with younger black people? Or is this based on doing well with young people overall.

I don't think his doing better with younger black people assuming he is reflects better messaging on racial issues anyway. They may just be more drawn to his generalist economic messaging, like younger women. The times had a piece on the latter vs older women and gender issues.

Not sure how it is recently; but even from the beginning, I do recall that Sanders won every demographic between the ages of 18-35 - even women and blacks. Age was a much stronger correlative factor than race, surprisingly.

I think the nominee will be Cruz after a floor fight.

Discuss.

My kind of crazy prediction

If Trump isn't at 1237; if he's not super close to it - he drops out at the convention. RNC cuts him a deal and they get him to call off his campaign.

I think Kasich has been told that he's the choice of a brokered convention, and that is why he is in the race.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Not sure how it is recently; but even from the beginning, I do recall that Sanders won every demographic between the ages of 18-35 - even women and blacks. Age was a much stronger correlative factor than race, surprisingly.

From the polling I remember Bernie only split hispanics and still lost blacks pretty badly in that age group

My kind of crazy prediction

If Trump isn't at 1237; if he's not super close to it - he drops out at the convention. RNC cuts him a deal and they get him to call off his campaign.

I think Kasich has been told that he's the choice of a brokered convention, and that is why he is in the race.

There's nothing they could offer Trump to get him to drop.
 

User 406

Banned
I think they're fucked no matter what. To the point that even arguing degrees of fuckeditude almost doesn't matter. It's like arguing which is worse: your house being destroyed by fire, or a tornado. The house is gone either way. lol

Trump gets the nom: the GOP gets murdered in November.

Cruz takes the nom in a floor fight: Well, the GOP has been so transparent with its #StopTrump movement that there's no way Cruz getting the nom won't be attributed to that, no matter what "it's the rules!" excuse the establishment gives. Party revolts and splinters, gets murdered in November.

I can't even begin to speculate which option is worse for the party. If Trump wins the nomination, the GOP gets tied to him for ages. If they steal the nomination from him at the convention, an electorally significant chunk of their base may turn away in anger from the GOP for good. I have no idea which one would give a better shot at downballot wins. And I'm ok with not knowing!

Anton%20Ego%20Ratatouille_52.gif
 
Straight male in poli-gaf who can cook!!!!

*Raises hand*

Tonight I made pork chops with mushroom gravy, plus mashed potatoes and asparagus on the side. Our toddler, who's never shown much interest in pork chops before, had some off our plates and later went to the fridge and pointed to the leftovers while saying "need this" so it seems he's a fan.
 
If it were Trump v another baffoon, sure. They could nominate Kasich. But Cruz is hyper organized. He won't let that happen.

It's Trump or Cruz, there's no realistic alternative. Crazy scenarios where they'd have to change the rules despite both Cruz and Trump's opposition and then organize some movement for a 3rd candidate are fantasies.
 

ampere

Member
Also, this story may be from August, but it's truly amazing.



http://www.businessinsider.com/dona...-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8

THE NEXT GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

Just to clarify on how many parts of this story are amazing:

1. Trump keeps a book by Adolf Hitler near his bed and reads it often.
2. Trump DOES NOT KNOW WHICH BOOK BY ADOLF HITLER IT IS, DESPITE READING IT OFTEN.
3. Trump thinks it is a reasonable defense to say that a Jew gave him the book.
4. The guy Trump thinks is a Jew ISN'T EVEN A JEW, HE JUST WORKS IN HOLLYWOOD AND SO TRUMP ASSUMED HE MUST BE A JEW.

Great on so many levels.

"I have many books. So many books. Great books. I love books."
 
Everyone is focusing on Trump while Cruz is trying to keep quiet and slither his way to the nomination. People need to be reminded that Cruz ain't shit either.
 
I'm still in agreement with Plinko. If trump walks into the RNC with the majority of delegates and doesn't walk out the nominee, people aren't going to be happy.
 
Fair point. That whole city will be on fire though, not that it isn't already.



Sounds like my dad, he once burned oatmeal. Which is why I got my mom to teach me to cook when I was in high school.

Well, I mean, normally it's just the river that's on fire.

In all fairness.
 

royalan

Member
"'Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's. Render unto God that which is God's' don't you question me about my religion."

CHRIS FUCKING MATTHEWS
 
If Trump has a majority of delegates they have to give him the nomination. I think even a lot of non-Trump supporters wouldn't forgive them for stealing the nomination that blatantly. I'd also be very afraid of violence breaking out in that circumstance. The whole thing would have a non-infinitesimal chance of completely destroying the Republican Party. They'd pretty much have to give Trump the nomination and then have the party and downballot candidates distance themselves from him as much as possible to limit the damage and say "see, we told you so" after he loses.

If he only has a plurality then there are some more options, but none of them are actually any good, and I wouldn't overestimate the degree of control the establishment actually has over the process.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
From the polling I remember Bernie only split hispanics and still lost blacks pretty badly in that age group



There's nothing they could offer Trump to get him to drop.

Hrm; I thought there was a fair amount of surprise that Bernie actually won the young black vote. I'll have to go look around for it at some point.

As for Trump...I think that he would cut a deal. I feel like this story isn't over yet.
 
Cleveland place is going to turn into a shitshow if that happens.

Fair point. That whole city will be on fire though, not that it isn't already.



Sounds like my dad, he once burned oatmeal. Which is why I got my mom to teach me to cook when I was in high school.

Well, I mean, normally it's just the river that's on fire.

In all fairness.

tumblr_n32or2Gg7F1qk08n1o1_500.gif



Don't burn down Cleveland, GOP. We've suffered enough.

They'll burn the whole city down, but Brown's stadium will be left intact, because God has a sense of humor.
 

itschris

Member
Ahahaha, that's Mac Lethal and he got fucking owned. I remember him winning the emcee battle at Scribble Jam in the early 2000's, and one of his albums was pretty decent, but geez, what a cunt.

You didn't even need to sensor him since he's a public figure (and I immediately recognized his real name).

Ha, I had no idea, I thought he was just a random troll.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
West Wing Reports ‏@WestWingReport 2h2 hours ago
At 12 midnight: Big new forecast on electoral college from @LarrySabato @kkondik and @geoffreyvs of UVA Center for Politics - Crystal Ball

should be fun.
 

Cat

Member
I don't know what to guess. Part of me says it'll still be Trump and the delegate hoarding is a backup plan, so the party is prepared for having the option. Another part of me is that so much preparation into this backup plan says it is THE plan.

I'll be reading about the events and hope nobody dies.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It's not gonna happen. If it does though, prepare for President Cruz or Trump. I really don't think Sanders is a bit prepared for the GE after those fringe comments.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
The decision from what I've read and heard will come down sometime in May. Most experts think she won't be charged with anything.

I'm just prepared for the salt.
 

Hexa

Member
It's not gonna happen. If it does though, prepare for President Cruz or Trump. I really don't think Sanders is a bit prepared for the GE after those fringe comments.

Hillary gets indicted.
It ends up Trump vs Sanders.
Bloomberg enters the fray.
Nobody gets to 270.
Paul Ryan picks the new President.
Hello President Romney.
 
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