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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Ziltoidia 9

Member
I remembered watching the show where she went through the number of campaign offices/workers for super Tuesday, and being happy (as a Sander supporter) in hopes that he would stay closer in the states. It was a stupid comment.

On a side note, they only said he won 55 delegates over the weekend, which of course is false. He won 74 in Washington alone. That's the kind of stuff that gets people pissed at the "corporate media."
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
U

User 463088

Banned
Ziltoidia 9 said:
I remembered watching the show where she went through the number of campaign offices/workers for super Tuesday, and being happy (as a Sander supporter) in hopes that he would stay closer in the states. It was a stupid comment.

On a side note, they only said he won 55 delegates over the weekend, which of course is false. He won 74 in Washington alone. That's the kind of stuff that gets people pissed at the "corporate media."
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What was the context of the 55? Because, he netted 68 delegates this weekend. Saying he won 74 in Washington means little when Hillary won 27. It's the margins that matter in proportional representation moreso than the overall number of delegates.

It's better to win 4 delegates out of a possible 5 than to win 200 delegates out of a possible 400.
 
P

Paches

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
I remembered watching the show where she went through the number of campaign offices/workers for super Tuesday, and being happy (as a Sander supporter) in hopes that he would stay closer in the states. It was a stupid comment.

On a side note, they only said he won 55 delegates over the weekend, which of course is false. He won 74 in Washington alone. That's the kind of stuff that gets people pissed at the "corporate media."
Click to expand...

Looks like they are using RCP's count, not sure what they are going off of?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Oh, is it the NYT numbers? Ya, go with Greenpapers, but I think the AP provides those numbers so the networks are always going to go with those since they're only reporting official allocations.
 
U

User 406

Banned
adam387 said:
OMG, that was brilliant. Hahahaha. I'm trying to talk my Berniebro into taking me to Cleveland to Nighttown to see John McCutcheon. But I'm not sure he'll be in town then.
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I'm digging those songs you linked, reminds me of all the old Tom Lehrer albums I used to listen to as a kid, wonderfully biting political wit.
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
You know on this forum I've seen a lot of talk about the prospect of Trump running 3rd party if he gets slighted at the RNC, and how that makes democrats giddy since it would almost guarantee Hillary the nomination.

But I haven't heard many people talk about the prospect of Bernie potentially doing the same. Is it possible? You can tell by reddit and in this forum that Bernie Supporters aren't yet warmed up to the idea of flipping to Hillary. They may in the end, but what if they want to go down swinging? What if Hillary doesn't get enough delegates ( not including super delegates ) but with her superdelegates has enough for the nomination. Could Bernie supporters be pissed off enough and feel cheated enough by superdelegates to urge Bernie to run as an independent in the socialist reform party ( or whatever 3rd party they choose ). I know that's a scary scenario for most of you which is why it probably hasn't been discussed on this forum, but I am wondering if this is a possibility considering people think Trump may run 3rd party, but no one talks about Sanders doing the same, even though Trump has signed paperwork stating he wouldn't run 3rd party and I'm sure Bernie has said something similar.....but that hasn't kept people from talking about Trump running 3rd party
 
S

Skiptastic

Member
I'm far behind on this thread already, but as someone who listened to te entirety of Why Not Me on audio book, the thought of Franken being so close to president tickles my fancy.

Oh and he should bring back the no ATM fees platform. It was a winner back then it's a winner now.
 
M

mo60

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
You know on this forum I've seen a lot of talk about the prospect of Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump running 3rd party if he gets slighted at the RNC, and how that makes democrats giddy since it would almost guarantee Hillary the nomination.

But I haven't heard many people talk about the prospect of Bernie potentially doing the same. Is it possible? You can tell by reddit and in this forum that Bernie Supporters aren't yet warmed up to the idea of flipping to Hillary. They may in the end, but what if they want to go down swinging? What if Hillary doesn't get enough delegates ( not including super delegates ) but with her superdelegates has enough for the nomination. Could Bernie supporters be pissed off enough and feel cheated enough by superdelegates to urge Bernie to run as an independent in the socialist reform party ( or whatever 3rd party they choose ). I know that's a scary scenario for most of you which is why it probably hasn't been discussed on this forum, but I am wondering if this is a possibility considering people think Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump may run 3rd party, but no one talks about Sanders doing the same, even though Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump has signed paperwork stating he wouldn't run 3rd party and I'm sure Bernie has said something similar.....but that hasn't kept people from talking about Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump running 3rd party
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He won't do that because he does not want to give the White House to the republicans.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
AP hasn't assigned the rest of Washington's delegates, I got the 74 number from 538.

The reason I complained about it because she started it off as a "huge deal" then went on to talk about how it was only a 35 net delegate gain on Clinton, which isn't the case. It was like the whole piece was to say "hey look, he did amazing, but he didn't really net that much..."

It was also a piece all about pledged delegates, and then they show the numbers that included the super delegates. In terms of pledged delegates, didn't he cut her lead by like 25%?
 
U

User 406

Banned
Skiptastic said:
I'm far behind on this thread already, but as someone who listened to te entirety of Why Not Me on audio book, the thought of Franken being so close to president tickles my fancy.

Oh and he should bring back the no ATM fees platform. It was a winner back then it's a winner now.
Click to expand...

God, I remember when the ATM fees started, I was ready to fucking riot. Almost as big a scam as texting.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
perfectchaos007 said:
You know on this forum I've seen a lot of talk about the prospect of Trump running 3rd party if he gets slighted at the RNC, and how that makes democrats giddy since it would almost guarantee Hillary the nomination.

But I haven't heard many people talk about the prospect of Bernie potentially doing the same. Is it possible? You can tell by reddit and in this forum that Bernie Supporters aren't yet warmed up to the idea of flipping to Hillary. They may in the end, but what if they want to go down swinging? What if Hillary doesn't get enough delegates ( not including super delegates ) but with her superdelegates has enough for the nomination. Could Bernie supporters be pissed off enough and feel cheated enough by superdelegates to urge Bernie to run as an independent in the socialist reform party ( or whatever 3rd party they choose ). I know that's a scary scenario for most of you which is why it probably hasn't been discussed on this forum, but I am wondering if this is a possibility considering people think Trump may run 3rd party, but no one talks about Sanders doing the same, even though Trump has signed paperwork stating he wouldn't run 3rd party and I'm sure Bernie has said something similar.....but that hasn't kept people from talking about Trump running 3rd party
Click to expand...

Well, I don't have much worry about the super delegate situation. As long as Hillary has at least one more pledged delegate, you can't really make the argument that this was stolen from Bernie. If she has the pledged, super and popular vote lead, it's clear that people would have made a definitive choice.

As to him running 3rd party, the longer he stays in the race the less likely that would be due to signature deadlines and the like. He's also said that he won't do it, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Trump running 3rd party is a result of the party stealing the nomination from him. If Bernie legitimately loses, I hope he's as good as his word. I don't have hope that he'll be a good solider for Clinton, but as long as he gets out of the way with a bit of dignity, then all is fine.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
If Bernie Sanders runs third party his political career is over and he knows it. Not only would he potentially deliver a Trump WH, but he'd become a pariah. He won't want that. Because he'll still want to caucus with the establishment when he returns to being just the junior Senator from Vermont.

Donald Trump gives zero fucks about any of that.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Sea Manky said:
Someone posted a golf course and some trees in the last thread. But I've never seen those on my drives through the pitiless yawning gulf of Indiana.
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The southern third of the state is surprisingly scenic, but the northern two thirds is mostly just flat nothingness. Traveling on the Toll Road or the northern half of I-65 is super tedious, and of course since a lot of the people traveling through the state are going to/from Chicago, that's what they get to see.

I'm not sure about the rest of the state, but growing up in Southern Indiana we always made fun of Kentucky.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Sanders isn't horrible, his campaign runners might be shit, but he is honorable and holds to his words. From what I've heard, even in private, he says he wouldn't ever run 3rd party.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Ziltoidia 9 said:
AP hasn't assigned the rest of Washington's delegates, I got the 74 number from 538.

The reason I complained about it because she started it off as a "huge deal" then went on to talk about how it was only a 35 net delegate gain on Clinton, which isn't the case. It was like the whole piece was to say "hey look, he did amazing, but he didn't really net that much..."

It was also a piece all about pledged delegates, and then they show the numbers that included the super delegates. In terms of pledged delegates, didn't he cut her lead by like 25%?
Click to expand...
It was an impressive showing, it's just that unless he shows similar results in MD, PA, NY, NJ etc. it's not going to mean much in the long run. The caucuses were all pretty much called for Bernie to begin with, the only real surprise is that they were more 70-30 than 60-40.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Ziltoidia 9 said:
AP hasn't assigned the rest of Washington's delegates, I got the 74 number from 538.

The reason I complained about it because she started it off as a "huge deal" then went on to talk about how it was only a 35 net delegate gain on Clinton, which isn't the case. It was like the whole piece was to say "hey look, he did amazing, but he didn't really net that much..."

It was also a piece all about pledged delegates, and then they show the numbers that included the super delegates. In terms of pledged delegates, didn't he cut her lead by like 25%?
Click to expand...

I mean, there's probably no way I can answer this without sounding like a shrill for Hill, but I'm not trying to shit on Bernie at all, honestly.

It's a big deal in that he won 3 states, sure, but to the overall status of the race, it's not really. The problem is, while he did exceed his margins, he's still so far behind where he should be that the gain of 68 delegates just doesn't mean as much as one would think. He should be proud that he did well, but it was an anticipated "doing well."
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Aaron Strife said:
It was an impressive showing, it's just that unless he shows similar results in MD, PA, NY, NJ etc. it's not going to mean much in the long run. The caucuses were all pretty much called for Bernie to begin with, the only real surprise is that they were more 70-30 than 60-40.
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Oh I know, if his vote can get out, he can do well, if it doesn't he will lose. NY will help him by having it be the only state leading up to the primary, giving him time to really campaign and focus on it. Dobut he wins Maryland. Probably another 20% loss. Penn, NY and NJ, best he can do is win by a few points.

adam387 said:
I mean, there's probably no way I can answer this without sounding like a shrill for Hill, but I'm not trying to shit on Bernie at all, honestly.

It's a big deal in that he won 3 states, sure, but to the overall status of the race, it's not really. The problem is, while he did exceed his margins, he's still so far behind where he should be that the gain of 68 delegates just doesn't mean as much as one would think. He should be proud that he did well, but it was an anticipated "doing well."
Click to expand...

All I was mentioning is that they tried to undercut it by not truly showing how well he did. Sure, it won't change the likely hood of him losing, but no reason to give to be false about what happened.

As for "shill", I know you have a long history with supporting her, so it doesn't bother me. Not that it matters if it bothered me, but live it up. You've been wanting this a while of course.

I'm from and live in Texas. I'm used to not getting my way.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
If Bernie loses he'll quit and just hope Hillary does really bad so he can say I told you so?
 
C

Cipherr

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
You know on this forum I've seen a lot of talk about the prospect of Trump running 3rd party if he gets slighted at the RNC, and how that makes democrats giddy since it would almost guarantee Hillary the nomination.

But I haven't heard many people talk about the prospect of Bernie potentially doing the same. Is it possible? You can tell by reddit and in this forum that Bernie Supporters aren't yet warmed up to the idea of flipping to Hillary. They may in the end, but what if they want to go down swinging? What if Hillary doesn't get enough delegates ( not including super delegates ) but with her superdelegates has enough for the nomination. Could Bernie supporters be pissed off enough and feel cheated enough by superdelegates to urge Bernie to run as an independent in the socialist reform party ( or whatever 3rd party they choose ). I know that's a scary scenario for most of you which is why it probably hasn't been discussed on this forum, but I am wondering if this is a possibility considering people think Trump may run 3rd party, but no one talks about Sanders doing the same, even though Trump has signed paperwork stating he wouldn't run 3rd party and I'm sure Bernie has said something similar.....but that hasn't kept people from talking about Trump running 3rd party
Click to expand...

That scenario requires both the voter/supporters of the person running to be crazy, and the candidate themselves to be crazy at the same time. Otherwise that scenario never happens.

Its nothing to worry about for liberals because Bernie isn't going to do it. I can totally see him being a sore loser and refusing to endorse her, but not taking a dump on the nation by handing the Presidency to the right.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Ultimately, let's just be honest. No one cares if you win HI, AK, ID and UT. Regardless of how big your win was.

The win that mattered for him was WA and it's just not enough.

Also, there was a stat before about turnout and her wins. So it's not about turnouts.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Oh I know, if his vote can get out, he can do well, if it doesn't he will lose. NY will help him by having it be the only state leading up to the primary, giving him time to really campaign and focus on it. Dobut he wins Maryland. Probably another 20% loss. Penn, NY and NJ, best he can do is win by a few points.



All I was mentioning is that they tried to undercut it by not truly showing how well he did. Sure, it won't change the likely hood of him losing, but no reason to give to be false about what happened.

As for "shill", I know you have a long history with supporting her, so it doesn't bother me. Not that it matters if it bothered me, but live it up. You've been wanting this a while of course.

I'm from and live in Texas. I'm used to not getting my way.
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I know but, deep down, I don't want to come across as a dick. It's really not my style, but I probably do from time to time without meaning to.

Since they pull their numbers from the AP, I'm guessing that's why they only reported it that way. I DVR'd Rachel, so I'll catch it tomorrow. The Nightly News on NBC didn't even mention the weekends stuff at all. I thought maybe a passing mention, but there was nothing at all that I saw. Just the Cruz/Trump fiasco.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Las7 said:
Bernie will win NY and suddenly the whole PoliGAF thread will be on lockdown
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Not unless he manages to win it by more than 10 points. He can win every primary from here on out by 10 points, win every caucus from here on out by 40, and he'd still be behind in the final counts.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
thcsquad said:
I wish I could zoom in on the map. The center of Boystown is the Halsted strip from Belmont north to Addison. This is the commercial center, though. Residential would probably be a quarter mile radius around that. But without being able to zoom in, I can't match that to precincts.
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This site has precinct maps for each ward, with the streets helpfully labeled. You can use that to get the precinct number and then try and find the matching precinct on the map, but it's admittedly pretty tedious.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Yellowtail said:
tumblr_n3o9q1SMlj1rwvm25o1_500.gif
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CerVylmWIAAIbPe.jpg:medium
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Las7 said:
Bernie will win NY and suddenly the whole PoliGAF thread will be on lockdown
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Won't happen. Unemployment would tick up for forecasters and modelers giving off the impression they're making predictions rather than projections. Only one man is going to make America great again and I don't think he's a democratic socialist. He might have flip flopped though during the race for POTUS to get votes.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
perfectchaos007 said:
You know on this forum I've seen a lot of talk about the prospect of Drumpf running 3rd party if he gets slighted at the RNC, and how that makes democrats giddy since it would almost guarantee Hillary the nomination.

But I haven't heard many people talk about the prospect of Bernie potentially doing the same. Is it possible? You can tell by reddit and in this forum that Bernie Supporters aren't yet warmed up to the idea of flipping to Hillary. They may in the end, but what if they want to go down swinging? What if Hillary doesn't get enough delegates ( not including super delegates ) but with her superdelegates has enough for the nomination. Could Bernie supporters be pissed off enough and feel cheated enough by superdelegates to urge Bernie to run as an independent in the socialist reform party ( or whatever 3rd party they choose ). I know that's a scary scenario for most of you which is why it probably hasn't been discussed on this forum, but I am wondering if this is a possibility considering people think Drumpf may run 3rd party, but no one talks about Sanders doing the same, even though Drumpf has signed paperwork stating he wouldn't run 3rd party and I'm sure Bernie has said something similar.....but that hasn't kept people from talking about Drumpf running 3rd party
Click to expand...

Trump is only able to do that because he's got tons of his own money since he barely spends any of it. If he gets screwed in Cleveland, he can still mount a campaign. Bernie, on the other hand, is spending hand over fist, and his donor base would dry up insanely fast (same for Trump, it just doesn't matter in his case). Bernie could try it, and he'd raise about $100K in August, then drop out anyway when that figure gets reported.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
Boystown was completely engulfed in HRC votes in the map linked above. Do you want to know the exact precincts for a reason?

Here's the "official" boundaries of what is an unofficial designation: https://www.google.com/maps/place/B...2!3m1!1s0x880fd3bac9c4e945:0x602bd256bc3c5933
Click to expand...

When I was getting ready to move to Chicago and looking for an apartment, it took me some time to get used to the whole system of official and clearly defined community areas plus unofficial neighborhoods with fuzzy boundaries, especially when the neighborhood and community area share a name but not boundaries.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Debating your Sanders-supporting husband when his only arguments are "Independents hate Hillary", "I don't trust her" and "Wall Street"...........................

And then saying that sexist attacks against her make me support her more, I get accused of not supporting Sanders because he's a white male.........................
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Paches said:
Watching Maddow and wow, Devine's comments about "not trying" on Super Tuesday are laughable.
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This is why Maddow is one of the, if not the best, talking head on TV. She prefers Sanders, but she still calls out bullshit when she sees it and is not the least bit afraid of issuing a correction.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Holmes said:
Debating your Sanders-supporting husband when his only arguments are "Independents hate Hillary", "I don't trust her" and "Wall Street"...........................
Click to expand...

Take a lesson from the Rajun' Cajun: never talk politics with you SO.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
This whole thing is fascinating.

Though I'd be curious to actually get an LGBT Chicagoan to tell us which precincts are gay in Chicago.

Maybe I'll ask LGBT GAF.
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If there's a map of Chicago with precincts drawn over it, I could tell you where Boy's Town is.

It's sometimes confusing since these micro neighborhoods sometimes aren't officially neighborhoods or are part of a bigger neighborhood. I think Boy's Town is technically part of Lakeview?
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
When I was getting ready to move to Chicago and looking for an apartment, it took me some time to get used to the whole system of official and clearly defined community areas plus unofficial neighborhoods with fuzzy boundaries, especially when the neighborhood and community area share a name but not boundaries.
Click to expand...

It's very confusing. When I moved to the area, I lived in a close-in suburb for a couple years until I knew my way around.
 
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