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[ugaboga232]

Long term goals are fine. Hillary has them too.

They both have the goal of universal access to healthcare. They just have different ways of getting there. But, there's something intellectually....I don't want to say dishonest but problematic, about offering people things that you know will simply not happen. Bernie will never, ever get his healthcare plan through congress. The Democratic leadership has already said it's dead. There's no will there to go through another battle on this when we just did it 6 years ago.

So, we're left with incremental change, which is how our system of government works, or doing nothing until we get exactly what we want. The latter is not an option, and the former is what Hillary is offering. We have a way to get to not-for-profit healthcare, It's through the ACA. Let's use what we have instead of starting over from the beginning.

Something I've mentioned before. That old expression "You run in poetry you govern in prose." Hillary is the prose candidate. She's wonky. She's policy driven. She'll tell you, not what you want to hear, but what she thinks she can deliver. Like she said, she'd like to under promise and over deliver. I sincerely doubt that there isn't a single more liberal policy of Bernie's Hillary wouldn't support. If a single payer bill crossed her desk, she'd sign it in a heart beat. She'd sing a $15 minimum wage too. But, she knows how ,when and how much political capital she can expend.

The thing is a lot of people don't believe she would be quite as in favor of the more liberal sanders style goals (just commenting, I think she probably would).

My problem is that incremental change has its limits and that some of her policy's have great cool details but simply don't reach her lofty statements (her healthcare ones are both hard to accomplish and even if she goes the state based public option plan it will leave a lot of people in the poorer/republican states high and dry).

Honestly, I've been chalking up most of Sanders setbacks to his lack of mass media coverage. Before, i didn't really put much faith in the "News is corrupt, they have agendas they are pushing" but these primaries have kinda been making me question a lot of things. It's tough not to see a bias in CNN once you pay attention to the way things are worded.

I ESPECIALLY chalk up Trump's rise to prominence due to media coverage. More people have seen Trump on national television than Sanders and I think it shows with the difference in climate towards each party outlier.

Given that the atlantic (among others) I think was caught publishing stories straight from clinton people and agreeing to write certain articles for access (which has been going on for most candidates for decades but is still pretty unethical), its not a huge surprise.

 

[Macho Madness]

Devine made ~800k in 1 month from the campaign? Is this true


There is also a lot of contention on free trade vs fair trade (aka all the stuff they sneak into/want to sneak into Nafta/TPP) that I wish sanders had talked about. The genie of globalization is out of the bottle, 0% chance you can ever coax him back in.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2016/M3/C00577130/B_PAYEE_C00577130.html

Ctrl+F Devine

 

[blackaroni]

It's paid to his firm. Not sure how many people that's covering. That's still a lot of money.

 

[Macho Madness]

It's paid to his firm. Not sure how many people that's covering.

 

[royalan]

Susan Sarandon...please stop talking.

 

[User 463088]

An Interesting article on how women are reflected in the different campaigns.

Of the top 10 highest paid staffers for each candidate:

Hillary has 6 men and 4 women.
Bernie has 10 men.
Trump has 7 men and 3 women.
Cruz has 7 men and 3 women.
Kasich has 9 men and 1 woman.

Hillary's campaign is the only one that has more women working for it than men.

 

[blackaroni]

Lmao

Susan Sarandon...please stop talking.

Is this something new or what she said earlier?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Him and Devine just seem so unenjoyable to be around. They are so serious looking.

 

[Retromelon]

This is what i imagine benji looks like irl

 

[Crocodile]

Susan Sarandon...please stop talking.

They shouldn't have played that clip where she said she wouldn't (probably, she had to think about it) support Clinton if she got the nominee. Poisoned the entire interview. I was curious as to what she had to say as she's a famous person I've actually interacted with on more than one occasion but its hard to stay neutral and open-minded when you have that sound bite in your head

 

[ivysaur12]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

 

[royalan]

Lmao

Is this something new or what she said earlier?

I'm just not watching MSNBC, so likely something she said earlier.

She's just regurgitating Bernie's talking points. Oh, and apparently his voters are "too principled" to vote for Hillary Clinton...but not too principled to look up the candidate they're demonizing.

 

[RustyNails]

Edit: Added Birdie Sanders

 

[Macho Madness]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

I don't think it matters if she does before June 7th unless Bernie drops before then.

 

[FlowersisBritish]

It's tough not to see a bias for anyone that has a preference, because of our own cognitive bias.

Consider this: Following your logic, why is Trump getting all this media coverage? Do you believe that they are biased towards him?

I don't know what you're trying to say? Are you saying I am imagining the biases? Because, sometimes that's the case, but there can be a lot of subtly in writing. Especially news articles; such as who is the focus of the article, the kind of language/words used to describe the focus and those not the focus. The big give away is the kind of adverbs and adjectives that are used. They're a lot more subtle in mass media in general, but if you want an easy blue print of what I'm talking about just find nearly any article in a heavy right wing(or left wing) news article.

Also, by this logic, they are biased towards Trump. I think that's pretty obvious. I just went to the CNN politics page and found four articles mentioning Trump, two of them with Trump as the focus.

 

[And_Gignac]

There's no evidence of any of this. Trade has been an incredible boon for hundreds of millions of people in countries in deep poverty.

You want to make the (erroneous) anti-Trade argument for the US to protect manufacturing jobs here, by all means, go for it. But this idea that not buying stuff from poor countries actually helps them won't stick.

But The Chicago School has plenty of evidence right? Lol

 

[Drakeon]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

Someone explain to me the logic of putting NY and CA so far back in the primary calendar. Were they intentionally intending to drag out the nomination by putting 2 of the most populous States so far back?

 

[RustyNails]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

I don't think the dem primary ends until Cali votes. Bernie supporters/campaign will be eyeing the 400+ delegate rich state and imagining a crazy upset.

 

[Macho Madness]

I don't think the dem primary ends until Cali votes. Bernie supporters/campaign will be eyeing the 400+ delegate rich state and imagining a crazy upset.

Yep.

I mean if he wants to go to DC that's fine too I guess but what would be the point?

 

[hawk2025]

I don't know what you're trying to say? Are you saying I am imagining the biases? Because, sometimes that's the case, but there can be a lot of subtly in writing. Especially news articles; such as who is the focus of the article, the kind of language/words used to describe the focus and those not the focus. The big give away is the kind of adverbs and adjectives that are used. They're a lot more subtle in mass media in general, but if you want an easy blue print of what I'm talking about just find nearly any article in a heavy right wing(or left wing) news article.

Also, by this logic, they are biased towards Trump. I think that's pretty obvious. I just went to the CNN politics page and found four articles mentioning Trump, two of them with Trump as the focus.

I am not saying bias does not exist, by any stretch. Yes, I am saying you are reading tea leaves in general by using amount of coverage as a causal measure of bias by conflating the two, because this would imply that CNN is biased favorably towards Donald Trump.

We don't believe this, correct?

But The Chicago School has plenty of evidence right? Lol

...ok, have fun talking to someone else.

 

[And_Gignac]

Edit: Added Birdie Sanders

And that's when Birdie Sanders megaevolves and wrecks the establishment's shit.

 

[NeoXChaos]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

its mathematically impossible for her to get it through just pledged. She needs supers. Under the rosiest of performances up til June 7th puts at her north of 1900 pledged and around 450 on June 7th. She will likely end the primary with thin 50-100 of clinching it through pledged.

 

[B-Dubs]

Someone explain to me the logic of putting NY and CA so far back in the primary calendar. Were they intentionally intending to drag out the nomination by putting 2 of the most populous States so far back?

Yup.

 

[User 463088]

So do we think that Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7th, or do we think it'll happen beforehand? A reminder that 694 pledged delegates are awarded on June 7th, which is more than she needs to clinch the nomination with her current supers.

If we give her moderately good wins in NY, PA, and MD, but keep her around 55 in each, wins in the other northern states that vote on the 26, but keep her around 52(Ish).....

With Supers, I still have her about 212 short going into May. If she loses everything in May by 30 point margins, she'd be 125 short of the 2383. She would only need to be viable (16.5%) in June to get above the threshold.

So, no, I don't think she can technically get enough delegates until June, although she can get her 125 by getting 27% of the vote in California, and being non-viable everywhere else that day.

 

[ucdawg12]

Trade liberalisation has brought like a billion people out of abject poverty over the last 20 years.

680m of those billion are from China, which is very fond of protecting its domestic industries.

 

[And_Gignac]

If Hillary destroys Bernie the 26th, the money is going to stop coming and he will be forced to drop out. Unless he just goes mute and his campaign is reduced to social networks activity.

 

[RustyNails]

And that's when Birdie Sanders megaevolves and wrecks the establishment's shit.

See that's the problem with Birdie Sanders. We are supposed to believe this megaevolution happens *somehow*. If he were serious, we would have been in the middle of it happening!

 

[Drakeon]

Yup.

But why?

 

[B-Dubs]

But why?

The idea is it forces the eventual nominee to build a more robust ground game so they can contest more states in the general.

 

[Kangi]

If Hillary destroys Bernie the 26th, the money is going to stop coming and he will be forced to drop out. Unless he just goes mute and his campaign is reduced to social networks activity.

I dunno, I thought the money would stop after the 15th, and I don't believe even that shutout dented his perpetual money machine. I don't think anything will. #gobrokeforbernie

 

[NeoXChaos]

She only really need to get about 450 pledged delegates and the 200 on the sidelines supers can effectively end it by the last primary in May. Other than that she will officially clinch on June 7th.

 

[vicissitudes]

Susan Sarandon...please stop talking.

Glad she sees the light. We need either Bernie or Trump to win in November. Hillary is the most dangerous candidate. Hopefully more high-profile figures will come around to her view.

 

[Macho Madness]

If Hillary destroys Bernie the 26th, the money is going to stop coming and he will be forced to drop out. Unless he just goes mute and his campaign is reduced to social networks activity.

I don't think even a 20-30 point win in NY or PA would convince Bernie to give up. He's in until California. Minimum. The money stops when he says it does.

 

[User 463088]

If Hillary destroys Bernie the 26th, the money is going to stop coming and he will be forced to drop out. Unless he just goes mute and his campaign is reduced to social networks activity.

She doesn't have to destroy him, really. If she nets a single delegate more than he does out of every single contest on the 26th, he's pretty much done.

But why?

The best I can come up with is that, electorally, they don't really matter? They're huge delegate prizes that are going to the Dems no matter what. They're expensive to campaign in, so putting them at the end makes a it of sense, I suppose. Plus, why campaign anywhere else if Cali is worth 475 delegates. That's like 11 Iowas.

 

[FlowersisBritish]

I am not saying bias does not exist, by any stretch. Yes, I am saying you are reading tea leaves in general by using amount of coverage as a causal measure of bias by conflating the two, because this would imply that CNN is biased favorably towards Donald Trump.

I do think they are biased favorably towards Trump. Compared to other Republican candidates? Yeah. If only for the simple reason of "he makes for good ratings."

 

[johnsmith]

The idea is it forces the eventual nominee to build a more robust ground game so they can contest more states in the general.

The problem with that is that all the swing states already voted. What's left that could be considered a swing state?

Indiana and New Mexico?

 

[And_Gignac]

I don't think even a 20-30 point win in NY or PA would convince Bernie to give up. He's in until California. Minimum. The money stops when he says it does.

You think? Signs of fatigue are already showing off. He raised 7m in 24 hours after Michigan. He has "only" raised 4m since Saturday this time around.

See that's the problem with Birdie Sanders. We are supposed to believe this megaevolution happens *somehow*. If he were serious, we would have been in the middle of it happening!

Your lack of faith in the *~power of friendship~* coming to change things in the very last minute is disheartening.

 

[NeoXChaos]

You think? Signs of fatigue are already showing off. He raised 7m in 24 hours after Michigan. He has "only" raised 4m since Saturday this time around.



Your lack of faith in the *~power of friendship~* coming to change things in the very last minute is disheartening.

what kind of material are you going to have when you are on our side in 2 months

 

[B-Dubs]

The problem with that is that all the swing states already voted. What's left that could be considered a swing state?

Indiana and New Mexico?

Obama won Indiana in 2008, due in no small part to the fact the primary ran on so long and he had to fight Hillary there. When it came time to shift modes they had a lot of infrastructure set up there so they just ran with it and look what happened.

If NY and Cali had voted earlier the primary would be over and no one would bother with campaign infrastructure in these red states, like Arizona, that Dems normally can't win but are slowly turning purple.

 

[hawk2025]

Shit, I bumped the other thread by going through the post history. Sorry y'all.

Here's the post:

So... sanders 10x more likely to beat Trump?

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/...ll-Sanders-10-times-more-likely-to-beat-Trump

Best part:

Here are the new Quinnipiac poll findings and how I interpret them:

CLINTON 46, TRUMP 40 in a November matchup, according to Quinnipaic.

But there's a plus-or-minus 2.6 percent margin of error. So the result could be...

CLINTON 43.4, TRUMP 42.6 — Clinton's low end against Trump's high end, within the poll’s margin of error.

Notice, it leaves just 0.8 percent between Clinton and Trump — such a slim lead, it’s all but meaningless this early in the general-election season.

The implication: Clinton and Trump are a virtual tossup. Flip a coin and we could be watching The Drumpf take office.

Holy shit, lol

 

[User 463088]

The problem with that is that all the swing states already voted. What's left that could be considered a swing state?

Indiana and New Mexico?

You could argue Pennsylvania, I suppose. They love to pretend it's a swing state, even though it doesn't swing that often or that much. I still think a lot of it is putting candidates in places they may not otherwise go. Bernie wouldn't have spent 30 seconds in South Carolina if it wasn't early and the sole contest on that day. It makes sense to keep the big delegate prize nearer the end than the beginning.

 

[RustyNails]

Shit, I bumped the other thread by going through the post history. Sorry y'all.

Here's the post:





Best part:




Holy shit, lol

Statistics should come with the label "Authorized personnel only".

 

[East Lake]

There's no evidence of any of this. Trade has been an incredible boon for hundreds of millions of people in countries in deep poverty.

You want to make the (erroneous) anti-Trade argument for the US to protect manufacturing jobs here, by all means, go for it. But this idea that not buying stuff from poor countries actually helps them won't stick.

I mean there's plenty of evidence for that. It's just that most people in here parrot the free trade benefits, which are real and ignore the drawbacks, probably because they get their news directly from mainstream economists.

 

[Drakeon]

She doesn't have to destroy him, really. If she nets a single delegate more than he does out of every single contest on the 26th, he's pretty much done.



The best I can come up with is that, electorally, they don't really matter? They're huge delegate prizes that are going to the Dems no matter what. They're expensive to campaign in, so putting them at the end makes a it of sense, I suppose. Plus, why campaign anywhere else if Cali is worth 475 delegates. That's like 11 Iowas.

What if I want to see one of the candidates and I live in Cali though?

I don't want to be bombarded with ads, but it'd be nice not to be taken for granted and not be ignored by pretty much all candidates.

 

[Diablos]

It would take your average household 16 years to earn what Devine did last month from the Bernie campaign.

But how much plastic surgery would I need to emulate his facial expressions?

Seriously, has he gone under the knife?

 

[User1608]

Gah

 

[hawk2025]

I mean there's plenty of evidence for that. It's just that most people in here parrot the free trade benefits, which are real and ignore the drawbacks, probably because they get their news directly from mainstream economists.

Let's start with the basics before unpacking the rest -- Why should they not get their economic analysis from mainstream economists?

 

[NeoXChaos]

We are counting on Diablos and the other two PA Gaffers who names escape me but start with a Q and M that post in here to deliver Bernie the knockout blow in PA

b-dubs and Cerium will do it in NY. If that don't work we got pigeon and Ivysaur to do it in CA and Y2kev in NJ

 

[lastflowers]

Shit, I bumped the other thread by going through the post history. Sorry y'all.

Here's the post:





Best part:




Holy shit, lol

looooooooool

 

[RastaMentality]

We are counting on Diablos and the other two PA Gaffers who names escape me but start with a Q and M that post in here to deliver Bernie the knockout blow in PA

b-dubs and Cerium will do it in NY. If that don't work we got pigeon and Ivysaur to do it in CA and Y2kev in NJ

I'm probably going to vote in the republican primaries in CA.