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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Yup.
Barack Obama has spoiled a generation. The reality is presidential candidates usually are boring old statesmen who have been in office for 100 years. The last time before Obama this wasn't the case was probably JFK.
User 463088
Banned
From the exit polling, in Oklahoma:
The next president should be less liberal (28%)
Bernie 59%
Hillary 24%
In Iowa entrance polling
The next president should be less liberal
Bernie 53%
Hillary 43%
In Ohio, they split the "less liberal" 48/47.
In Michigan,
The next President should be less liberal
Bernie: 53%
Hillary 47%
I agree it makes no sense, but that's what the data shows.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Jimmy King
Member
Very curious to see how my friends in Brooklyn react if Clinton wins big in NY.
User 463088
Banned
Of course it makes sense, with the supreme court on the line, I'm sure a lot of Republicans are more interested in having the easier opponent (Bernie) than a particular Republican
That's where he does client outreach.
It makes perfect sense, if you consider that people who hate Hillary because A) she's a woman, B) she's been slandered for a quarter century, C) she's the usurper black man's successor would prioritize that hatred over getting a less liberal President.
Basileus777
Member
It makes perfect sense, a lot of these people are Republican voters still registered as Democrats in closed states. They hate Hillary and Obama and also think Bernie would be easier to beat in November. There's little reason to think Biden would win these voters.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Here's the maps for Chicago, by ward and by precinct: Democrats | Republicans
According to census data, the largest concentrations of same-sex couples are in the 44th, 46th, 47th, 48th, and 49th wards.
Probably the most famous LGBT district of Chicago is Boystown, but typically of unofficial Chicago neighborhoods, the borders are pretty nebulous. The parts that everybody seems to consider Boystown make up the 33rd and 37th precincts of the 44th ward, plus parts of the 10th, 30th, and 31st precincts of the 46th ward. Depending on one's definition of Boystown it can encompass quite a bit more. Honestly someone who has been in the city longer than I have can probably detail better which precincts to look at.
Y2Kev is going to deliver New Jersey to Hillary like he delivered The Last Guardian at E3 last year.
User 463088
Banned
Hey. Hey.
Not cool brah. Only people from Ohio get to shit on the shit stain that is Ohio.
Plus, you get used to the smell and the deep, deep sense of depression that fills your very soul. Also, how the hell did they let you out of Ohio once you got here? I thought we were tagging people on the way in now.
Shit, if Ivy had done that in Capitol Hill in Seattle; he would have gotten Clinton like a good 5-10% more in Washington alone.
I know I beat this drum over and over - but to me, yes, that's absolutely the case. Hinting at the muslim question on 60 minutes, Bill going racial after him...yeah. Zero ability to claim moral high ground.
Accurate, IMO.
Eh, I think he's the overlap between Sanders and Clinton, which is why I think he would have done so well.
Bingo.
The data makes sense if you think of it as "socially liberal" rather than "totally liberal". If they split fiscal away from social, I suspect the data would make more sense.
Third Strike
Member
Do you think Sanders will win one of the boroughs? Or will all of his wins be upstate?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I think Makai or Pidgeon should decide on a new title for the thread.
if Biden was in the race to begin with and we actually had a competitive democratic race, I don't know that Bernie would have ever had the oxygen to get his campaign rolling in the first place. Fundraising a political revolution is a lot easier when you can sell the prospect of a winnable two-horse race.
Thank you! I don't know Chicago that well, but I find this stuff super interesting. If anyone knows Chicago well and can tell, that'd be awesome.
Tarkus
Member
She's okay, I wouldn't push her out of bed. But, Fox News blonde she is not.
Most of his wins will be in college towns upstate.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think he would have done that well.
Even though he'd pull votes away from both.
It's not like he hasn't tried before.
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Someone should just find a Carson quote. Fruit salad. Eh it's only four years.
Or Cuban Mistress Crisis. But it's a bit crass.
Even though he'd pull votes away from both.
It's not like he hasn't tried before.
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Someone should just find a Carson quote. Fruit salad. Eh it's only four years.
Or Cuban Mistress Crisis. But it's a bit crass.
Tarkus
Member
I didn't know that second-rate loan officers got town cars to ride around in.
User 463088
Banned
Fair enough, but that means they voted for Bernie because he was "Not Hillary." If there's another "Not Hillary," who happens to be a white, working class male, I think Biden picks up enough of those voters to make a difference. I'm also not convinced people really care enough to strategically vote in a primary when they're going to vote GOP in November anyway. If these are people who actually care enough to vote in a primary, I'd think they'd have been more interested in determining their nominee since the GOP side is still competitive.
I can agree with this two, which is why I think Biden had an angle in the race. I think he'd have gotten the bulk of the "Not Clinton" vote that went to Bernie because it had no where else to go. I think Biden running in 2nd consistently would have been enough of an oxygen suck to make it improbable for Bernie to catch on enough to win a decent amount of delegates.
I guess my thing is I don't buy that type of strategic voting, although I don't doubt the GOP wants Bernie more than I want a glass of wine at the moment.
I've actually been thinking about why Hillary does so poorly in caucus states. I think a lof ot it stems from them, typically, being deep red states. Even Democrats there have probably heard the Hate Hillary shit for so long it's completely internalized now.
Hope you're not applying b/c u just got declined
I'm pretty sure "Some other place" is actually what it says on the wikipedia page for Ohio.
It's a fundamentally antidemocratic system.
User 463088
Banned
User 463088
Banned
Oh, well, Pittsburgh is way, way worse than anything in Ohio.
I'll use it if there's a brokered convention.
theprodigy
Member
Colorado, Minnesota, Washington, Hawaii, etc.
Come on you can do better than that, this is "Hillary can only win red states" level.
Mrs. Manky
Banned
Well, Youngstown is one of the notches in the Rust Belt, and is also full of Pittsburgh Steelers fans.
Annnnd we're done here.
RustyNails
Member
I just noticed that my winning thread title from 2011 is missing in OP: PoliGAF 2011: Of Weiners, Boehners, Santorum, and Teabags
As kids, us Michiganders used to make fun of Ohio (maybe still pissed over Toledo going to Ohio and not Michigan?)
Then I visited friends in Cleveland, Cincinnati and Oxford and really liked them. Instead, let's just make fun of Indiana.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think the fact that Bernie does as well with supposed conservative Democratic voters as he does with liberal Democrats speaks more to the fact that no one really knows what the hell they're talking about when describing their political views.
Or more specifically that how someone defines a conservative is very dependent on self.
Or more specifically that how someone defines a conservative is very dependent on self.
Macho Madness
Member
I'm watching old YouTube videos of Ron Paul "winning" debates. This is hilarious.
User 463088
Banned
I should have been clearer, although I did mention red states in my post. Places like Idaho, Utah, Kansas, and Nebraska were what I was referring to.
She won Colorado in 2008, so that wouldn't be applicable to my point, nor yours. (Edit: Totally wrong about CO, sorry. Too many states in my head). Washington, anyone with half a brain knew how that one was going to go. Minnesota is also liberal, but she did better there in 2016 than in 2008.
The one that legitimately surprises me is Hawaii. I thought she should have done better than than she did.
I'm not saying she doesn't have a caucus problem, because she does. Luckily, they're mostly over and done with. There are examples from 2008 when there were caucuses and then primaries in the same states. She always did better, sometimes significantly better, in the primary than the caucus. I'm not solely blaming that on the decades of right wing smear she's dealt with.
I'm just throwing ideas out there of why western red states, with higher proportions of white people, seem to have a more negative opinion of her than southern red states. I think that's because of demographics, obviously, but I also think that decades of hearing shit about her and Bill could have also had a material impact on the race.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
https://www.google.com/search?q="Cu...hrome..69i57.156j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Very Daily Show Esque though.
She lost CO in 08. The ONLY caucus she will end up winning that she lost in 08 will be IA.
She lost MT by 15 in 08 but won SD by 9. How?
User 463088
Banned
You're absolutely right. Why did I think she won Colorado last time....I'm getting old.
User 463088
Banned
South Dakota was a primary.
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