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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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I wish someone would define will of the people other than it meaning "Bernie wins."

Is the will of the people more pledged delegates? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people more popular vote? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people who people think will win? Then that's Hillary.

Give me an actual measurement of the "will of the people."
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Uh, well, GE polling is pretty much useless until we actually have nominees. However, the reason he runs slightly better than Hillary is that he hasn't been attacked by anyone yet. The minute he got the nomination, the red scare would start and he would be decimated. A few months ago there was a story about a GOP group who did some field tests with some attacks against Sanders and it was damning.

Also, if Bernie is the stronger candidate, it's amazing he can't seem to beat Hillary.

It's more amazing how many fucking times this needs to be explained. I think it's due to his supporters failing to both understand the american electorate, and find ANY fault in Sanders.
 
The will of the people is actually often pretty stupid. I mean it gave you Dubya twice. It got you stuck in two wars for like a decade. It wanted to make it unconstitutional for the gays to marry. It gets lucky sometimes and gives an Obama or two.

You should really just get rid of it and make me GodEmperor.
 
Bernie is the will of the people. Hillary is it not even trying, like a bunch of apathetics.

Trump cannot win. It's all in the demographics. He'd need 30% of the non-white vote. That's not happening. He's the weakest GOP candidate in decades.

But he has less votes and less delegates

how is he the will of the people?

You missed the part where Bernie is consistently beating Trump by a larger amount than Hillary in the polls, making him the stronger candidate.

Have you noticed that not one person on the GOP side has gone after Bernie? How do you think his numbers are gonna go if he gets the nomination and they light him up with all of his tax plans and shit like Vox's calculator showing people paying six grand more in taxes under a Sanders nomination?
 

lednerg

Member
It's cool lednerg, here have a queen

That's the problem. We're done with nepotism. Hillary presents nothing attractive to the American public. She's way too hawkish and inconsistent to be trusted by Democrats who pay attention. She'd win, but she won't bring the people to the polls we'd need to turn things around. She simply doesn't bring in the crowds. She doesn't have the ear of people like Michelle Alexander, either. She's just the default DNC flavor of the year. People are waking up to how that has gotten us nothing.
 
Yes. When I say that there's a lot of revisionist history about the 2008 primary, there are really two big things in my mind. The first is that Clinton began with a seemingly insurmountable lead and was regarded as the inevitable nominee until late in the campaign. This is somewhat understandable because a big part of her campaign strategy was to position herself as the clear front runner, but the truth is she almost never broke 50% in the polls and fell behind Obama in most polls by February as the anti-Clinton vote coalesced around him.

The second big piece of revisionist history is that Obama was an outsider who came out of nowhere to win the nomination. While it is true that his rise was awfully fast, he still had good name recognition from giving the keynote address at the 2004 convention and was universally recognized as a rising star within the party. Clinton certainly started out with more establishment support, but Obama was still a mainstream Democrat who had a decent base of support within the party, especially in comparison to Sanders.

Frankly I see a fair amount of revisionist history or just plain historical ignorance when people talk about this primary. My first presidential election was 2004 so I was indeed well aware of the public opinion on marriage that shinra posted. Two years later I was living in Wisconsin when the voters approved a Constitutional Amendment to ban same-sex marriage and even civil unions with over 59% of the vote (in a blue state during a Democratic wave election!). When people chastise Clinton for changing her position on marriage equality since 2004, they seem to forget that a lot of people, not just politicians, have also changed their views since then.

Similarly, even though I was too young to really be politically aware at the time, I know that crime was much higher in the early 90s than it was today, that many people (falsely, as it turned out) thought it was getting worse, and that a significant factor in Dukakis's defeat in 1988 was that Bush had successfully painted him as soft on crime (Willie Horton, "revolving door," etc.) That's not to say that one can't fairly criticize politicians for their positions at the time, just that so much of the discussion omits that context. People unfortunately are prone to viewing the past as though it were the present.
Yeah I honestly don't hold flip-flopping on gay marriage against many politicians when a solid chunk of the country had to undergo a similar transformation. I think as long as their heart was in the right place and they weren't saying vile shit about gays right up to the moment they flipped the switch (hi Tulsi Gabbard!) then I'm ok with it. The gay rights movement only recently prioritized marriage equality as well.

It's just like - do you want every single person to never change their mind on anything? Because we ain't winning shit if we hold people to that standard.

Even principled consistent Bernie Sanders had to flip flop on gay marriage. And gun control. And the crime bill. And immigration. And now super delegates. Interesting how none of those ever seem to come up. I pointed that out to a friend once while he was complaining about Hillary being a flip flipper and he was like "well I'm not saying it's ok when Bernie does it" and it's like you're not saying ANYTHING when Bernie does it! He does the same shit as Hillary! And Obama! And every politician ever! So why is one of them the principled man of the people and one of them is a lying shill? Let me ponder this, I bet there's a very logically consistent answer behind it.
 

OmniOne

Member
I wish someone would define will of the people other than it meaning "Bernie wins."

Is the will of the people more pledged delegates? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people more popular vote? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people who people think will win? Then that's Hillary.

Give me an actual measurement of the "will of the people."

This.
 

Tubie

Member
You missed the part where Bernie is consistently beating Trump by a larger amount than Hillary in the polls, making him the stronger candidate.

The fact is more people of more diverse backgrounds have actually voted for Hillary. The people have overwhelmingly supported her over Bernie.

You think some poll for a hypothetical match-up that's still over 6 months away has more weight than actual votes?

I fail to see how that logic works.
 
That's the problem. We're done with nepotism. Hillary presents nothing attractive to the American public. She's way too hawkish and inconsistent to be trusted by Democrats who pay attention. She'd win, but she won't bring the people to the polls we'd need to turn things around. She simply doesn't bring in the crowds. She doesn't have the ear of people like Michelle Alexander, either. She's just the default DNC flavor of the year. People are waking up to how that has gotten us nothing.

And, again, she's turning out more people than Bernie Sanders. Not sure what that says about him. This idea that only Bernie can give us the turnout we need, when he can't even turn out enough people to be this Hillary Clinton that Democrats supposedly don't trust and don't want is logically questionable.

And we've gotten a hell of a lot more than "nothing" over the last 8 years.
 

Just like President Dukakis!

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/05/17/u...eagan-backers-shift-sides.html?pagewanted=all
 

lednerg

Member
And, again, she's turning out more people than Bernie Sanders. Not sure what that says about him. This idea that only Bernie can give us the turnout we need, when he can't even turn out enough people to be this Hillary Clinton that Democrats supposedly don't trust and don't want is logically questionable.

And we've gotten a hell of a lot more than "nothing" over the last 8 years.

That's merely a function of how many people are currently familiar with him versus her. It's like box office results, frankly all of it is about marketing. You think Trump, who some 70% of women hate, would somehow beat Bernie because he's not Hillary?
Just like President Dukakis!

The demographics in the 80's were a LOT different than they are now.
 
Yes. When I say that there's a lot of revisionist history about the 2008 primary, there are really two big things in my mind. The first is that Clinton began with a seemingly insurmountable lead and was regarded as the inevitable nominee until late in the campaign. This is somewhat understandable because a big part of her campaign strategy was to position herself as the clear front runner, but the truth is she almost never broke 50% in the polls and fell behind Obama in most polls by February as the anti-Clinton vote coalesced around him.

The second big piece of revisionist history is that Obama was an outsider who came out of nowhere to win the nomination. While it is true that his rise was awfully fast, he still had good name recognition from giving the keynote address at the 2004 convention and was universally recognized as a rising star within the party. Clinton certainly started out with more establishment support, but Obama was still a mainstream Democrat who had a decent base of support within the party, especially in comparison to Sanders.

Frankly I see a fair amount of revisionist history or just plain historical ignorance when people talk about this primary. My first presidential election was 2004 so I was indeed well aware of the public opinion on marriage that shinra posted. Two years later I was living in Wisconsin when the voters approved a Constitutional Amendment to ban same-sex marriage and even civil unions with over 59% of the vote (in a blue state during a Democratic wave election!). When people chastise Clinton for changing her position on marriage equality since 2004, they seem to forget that a lot of people, not just politicians, have also changed their views since then.

Similarly, even though I was too young to really be politically aware at the time, I know that crime was much higher in the early 90s than it was today, that many people (falsely, as it turned out) thought it was getting worse, and that a significant factor in Dukakis's defeat in 1988 was that Bush had successfully painted him as soft on crime (Willie Horton, "revolving door," etc.) That's not to say that one can't fairly criticize politicians for their positions at the time, just that so much of the discussion omits that context. People unfortunately are prone to viewing the past as though it were the present.

I'll say that the youth vote is a big reason for it. Someone posted that exchange about why "Hillary is a carpetbagger!" was a bad attack since it had already been put to bed 16 years ago, and the poster responded with, "I didn't realize that since I was only 4 in 2000."

Add a few other instances like that dumb Robert Byrd meme where people just aren't researching fully when pulling up old information. These people would be so screwed in a real history class because they'd try to write a massive paper on small tidbits without any context.

I've had similar interactions with a couple of friends, and some family members.

In my experience its been people that took out 100k+ in loans for a degree that has no market value or people that think their credit card debt is the fault of the banks and not their own.

Yeah, and I really want to know what the setup is for people that do this and don't finish quickly (or at all!). Like, should tuition go away for a person who's changed their program 4 times, and hence are looking at 8-9 years in school? I literally know someone like that who just graduated after 8 years of undergrad. At what point does that become a net-negative no matter the program they finished with?

Perhaps I have no say since I have never been a public figure, but my stance on gay marriage has been consistent since at least 92, that they should be able to get married. People praise Obama for 'evolving' his views on the matter, and immediately after, as if over night, a bunch of other politicians changed their tune. Perhaps this could have happened earlier, maybe if the Clintons had stated they were in favor when they were in the Whitehouse, a bunch of other politicians who were secretly in favor, or who didn't care enough to stick their neck out would have gotten on the bandwagon. It's all speculation, but I'd rather politicians say what they think is right, rather than hide their thoughts until someone else with the courage stands up to do so. They are the leaders, they should lead not follow.

Perhaps Hillary really did have a revelation this recently, and she was truly against gay marriage and just now came to the correct side. I'm not against people eventually coming to the right decision, late is better than never, but do you really want to vote for a person who continually comes to the right decision so late?

You'd be hardcore in the minority on that issue, and in 50 years, I suspect we'll all be a little problematic is so way or another. And that's okay. None of us are perfect, and if we're good people, we'll change our worldviews to accommodate new information and concepts.

There is a revolution happening. In Europe. Americans just aren't up to the task. We're all still praying that our American Dream tickets will be worth something some day. The rest of the world sees us acting this way and rolls their eyes.

20160402_FBC847.png

Europe's revolution..?

The revolution is economic in nature.

If a company wants to leave the country and lay off thousands of employees, then those employees should be given the chance to own/buy that business. The Labour Party is fighting to give them that opportunity.

First, the rise of the European far-right completely debunks this liberal utopia nonsense. At least here, in a few months, we can show the receipts when our voting base overwhelmingly rejects racists like Trump, but those groups are actually winning a fair bit overseas.

Second, the idea that economic pressures are the only pressures is laughable at best, and it's one of the big reasons that Bernie isn't doing better. Telling someone about income inequality when they're worried about getting shot by police or fired at work for wearing pants isn't going to sway them.

I am starting to get angry when I hear people say this. It is happening all the time in WA right now. They are actively saying some voters just don't count. It is gross.

*Raises hand*

I'm one of those "You live in the old Confederacy, and hence shouldn't be allowed to vote apparently" states. Remember, the revolution is only for some people. And a campaign strategy that makes me think of Animal Farm is probably not going to go well.
 

Armaros

Member
That's merely a function of how many people are currently familiar with him versus her. It's like box office results, frankly all of it is about marketing. You think Trump, who some 70% of women hate, would somehow beat Bernie because he's not Hillary?


The demographics in the 80's were a LOT different than they are now.

How can he be the will of the people, if supposedly he is losing because they don't know him.

He cant be both, an unknown quantity that has failed to be marketed to the American public, and the WILL OF THE PEOPLE.
 
I'll say that the youth vote is a big reason for it. Someone posted that exchange about why "Hillary is a carpetbagger!" was a bad attack since it had already been put to bed 16 years ago, and the poster responded with, "I didn't realize that since I was only 4 in 2000."

Add a few other instances like that dumb Robert Byrd meme where people just aren't researching fully when pulling up old information. These people would be so screwed in a real history class because they'd try to write a massive paper on small tidbits without any context.
The ignorance is astounding.

All the knowledge of the world at your fingertips and no one can be fucking assed to do a Wikipedia search for Robert Byrd.

All because some guy said he was a KKK leader and Hillary was palling around with him, so that's all you need to know! Never mind that he was a hugely influential senator for like fifty years, who cares

lednerg said:
I haven't been arguing that he's going to win the primary, so I don't know what you're getting at.
When you call Bernie "the voice of the people" that suggests a certain level of public support that would earn him the nomination. I would believe a true peoples' candidate would actually have the support of, you know, the people.
 
That's merely a function of how many people are currently familiar with him versus her. It's like box office results, frankly all of it is about marketing. You think Trump, who some 70% of women hate, would somehow beat Bernie because he's not Hillary?

So, basically, there exists no data point that will prove to you that Democrats prefer Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders? It doesn't matter if she wins the popular vote. It doesn't matter if she has more delegates. Reality itself is against Bernie Sanders.

He has been running for President for a year. If people don't know him enough that's on him. He was known in Iowa, and he lost. He was known in Nevada, and he lost. He was known in South Carolina and he lost. Democrats simply prefer Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders. But, if Bernie just needed more time to get people to know him, he should have started planting the seeds of his candidacy more than a year ago. You don't just show up to the party after ignoring it for 30 years and expect people to fall in love with you.


The demographics in the 80's were a LOT different than they are now.

That's....that's not the take away. I can post GE polls from 2008 that show McCain beating Obama but not Hillary, and vice versa. The point is GE polls before we have a nominee are absolutely useless.
 
The demographics in the 80's were a LOT different than they are now.

I haven't been arguing that he's going to win the primary, so I don't know what you're getting at.

Right, but you called him "the will of the people" when there isn't any actual data that supports such a claim.
 

lednerg

Member
How can he be the will of the people, if supposedly he is losing because they don't know him.

Fine, whatever. Most working people are too busy to bother voting in primaries, so you can't go by those results. But in terms of who seems to be giving a shit about working people as opposed to lip service, Bernie's got them covered. Hillary's been paid time and time again by the very people who have sunk our economy. Why supposedly staunch Democrats can ignore that is baffling. She's not so great of a candidate that something like that should escape our attention, and you can be sure Trump would bring that up.
 

bananas

Banned
Fine, whatever. Most working people are too busy to bother voting in primaries, so you can't go by those results. But in terms of who seems to be giving a shit about working people as opposed to lip service, Bernie's got them covered. Hillary's been paid time and time again by the very people who have sunk our economy. Why supposedly staunch Democrats can ignore that is baffling. She's not so great of a candidate that something like that should escape our attention, and you can be sure Trump would bring that up.

I think the issue people have with your claim is that it's not backed up by any real evidence and instead by political rhetoric.
 
Fine, whatever. Most working people are too busy to bother voting in primaries, so you can't go by those results. But in terms of who seems to be giving a shit about working people as opposed to lip service, Bernie's got them covered. Hillary's been paid time and time again by the very people who have sunk our economy. Why supposedly staunch Democrats can ignore that is baffling. She's not so great of a candidate that something like that should escape our attention, and you can be sure Trump would bring that up.

So, we're back to people aren't interested/smart enough/informed enough to know what's good for them.

When we want to quantify something like "the will of the people," we have to have some objective thing to measure that by. In an election, the only thing that matters is votes. We don't elect a President by who has the dankest memes, or by who has the most likes on Facebook. We do it by who has the most votes or, in the case of President, who has the most electoral college votes.

In a primary, we do it by delegates and, one could argue, popular vote. In both of those metrics, Hillary is the will of the people. Now, if we want to start arguing which "people" should count in "will of the people"....
 

lednerg

Member
I think the issue people have with your claim is that it's not backed up by any real evidence and instead by political rhetoric.

Look, we're still waiting for the Baby Boomers to die. When that happens, shit gets interesting. Until then, it's business as usual. I'd rather we didn't have to wait until then.
 

shem935

Banned
If you can turn paragraphs of information and into just 4 words, then I don't expect to have a fruitful conversation with you.

So no definition then? Cool. It's funny you talk about the will of the people but Bernie does much better in Caucuses where the will of the people is suppressed through procedure and inconvenience.
 
I wish someone would define will of the people other than it meaning "Bernie wins."

Is the will of the people more pledged delegates? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people more popular vote? Then that's Hillary.
Is the will of the people who people think will win? Then that's Hillary.

Give me an actual measurement of the "will of the people."

Well, you can't just use little things like "votes" to determine what is the will of the people. First of all you have to keep in mind that early voters and voters in the Confederacy are low information voters who would overwhelmingly vote for Bernie if they just knew about him. Also, Hillary's "wins" in Massachusetts and Arizona were due to massive voter suppression and fraud committed by Bill personally, so you have to adjust for that. Several other states were virtual ties so if you account for retroactive momentum you can give them to Bernie. Also we need to realize that Facebook likes and Google searches are really more important than votes because the most dedicated supporters are too busy Facebanking and sharing memes to actually vote. Really we should treat Tyler's model as a better measure of popular support than votes.

Checkmate.
 
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