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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Armaros

Member
Fine, whatever. Most working people are too busy to bother voting in primaries, so you can't go by those results. But in terms of who seems to be giving a shit about working people as opposed to lip service, Bernie's got them covered. Hillary's been paid time and time again by the very people who have sunk our economy. Why supposedly staunch Democrats can ignore that is baffling. She's not so great of a candidate that something like that should escape our attention, and you can be sure Trump would bring that up.

Why have you constantly moved the goal posts for over a page?

You have made so many excuses for Bernie.

Look, we're still waiting for the Baby Boomers to die. When that happens, shit gets interesting. Until then, it's business as usual. I'd rather we didn't have to wait until then.

How can bernie be the WILL OF THE PEOPLE, if he needs people to die to get into office.

So he doesn't speak for a huge portion of the people then?
 

bananas

Banned
It's not a strategy. It's an inevitability.
I agree, people inevitably die.

I disagree that all our problems are magically solved when that happens as well. There will be a leftward swing, no doubt, but were not going to all of a sudden become a socialist nation.
 
The ignorance is astounding.

All the knowledge of the world at your fingertips and no one can be fucking assed to do a Wikipedia search for Robert Byrd.

All because some guy said he was a KKK leader and Hillary was palling around with him, so that's all you need to know! Never mind that he was a hugely influential senator for like fifty years, who cares
I agree. I see this happen a lot with Conservatives where Malcolm X is supposed to be this black terrorist because at one point he said violence is the answer, yet George Washington was an American hero beyond moral reproach.
 
I think Bernie is a much more sincere and honest candidate than Hillary, i think his policies are better for the majority of the people in this country, but you cant call him the will of the people, Hillary is getting more votes than him.
 
Most working people are too busy to bother voting in primaries, so you can't go by those results.
Squidwardheaddesk_zps54088388.gif


THEN WHAT CAN YOU GO BY

lednerg said:
In all the polling available, Bernie beats Trump better than Hillary beats Trump. Explain why she is the safe choice.
Because every possible attack against Hillary has already been exhausted over the last 25 years whereas Bernie (who has never faced major Republican opposition in his life) has made it astonishingly easy to run negative attack ads against him by his debate statements?

All you need to do is cut a clip of him saying "Your taxes will go up" and boom, half the country has rallied against him.
 

pigeon

Banned
There is a revolution happening. In Europe. Americans just aren't up to the task. We're all still praying that our American Dream tickets will be worth something some day. The rest of the world sees us acting this way and rolls their eyes.

Sorry, I think we were talking about a leftist revolution, not a white supremacist one.
 
Well, you can't just use little things like "votes" to determine what is the will of the people. First of all you have to keep in mind that early voters and voters in the Confederacy are low information voters who would overwhelmingly vote for Bernie if they just knew about him. Also, Hillary's "wins" in Massachusetts and Arizona were due to massive voter suppression and fraud committed by Bill personally, so you have to adjust for that. Several other states were virtual ties so if you account for retroactive momentum you can give them to Bernie. Also we need to realize that Facebook likes and Google searches are really more important than votes because the most dedicated supporters are too busy Facebanking and sharing memes to actually vote. Really we should treat Tyler's model as a better measure of popular support than votes.

Checkmate.

Hahaha. <3
 

Holmes

Member
I really don't see how someone can be considered a good general election candidate for President if they can't even win a national primary, not to mention no one cares enough about someone who don't have a chance in hell of winning so they just project what they want him to be and he ends up being the "strongest" candidate (Kasich).

It'll be over soon. They should just take the L with young voters, and keep on keeping on with African-Americans, latinos, registered Democrats and voters over the age of 40.
 

pigeon

Banned
You gotta give people context ;)

Not everybody knows about Golden Dawn, etc.

He's the one who lives in Europe! I have to explain anti-Muslim sentiment to him? Maybe this is why Europeans think there isn't any racism there, they literally don't know the word.
 
In all the polling available, Bernie beats Trump better than Hillary beats Trump. Explain why she is the safe choice. Explain why she is the will of the people, for that matter.

D8sxR1.gif


But, I'll bite. Again, I need you to define "will of the people." If your entire definition of will of the people is GE polls, then....that's not a great argument. Polls don't vote. People vote. And by every objective measurement Hillary is the "will" of the Democratic party which is all that matters at the moment.

Bernie has had nothing thrown at him. Nothing at all. Hillary has treated him with kid gloves. The moment Bernie would make it to a General, we'd hear nothing but socialism, Sandinistas, praising Fidel Castro, your taxes are going up, wanted to nationalize television, and honeymoon in the USSR!

Hillary is the safe choice because she has the experience, the connections, the demographics and the political clout on her side. She's a known quantity, and she actually understands how this entire thing works. She has better infrastructure and a better team.
 
In all the polling available, Bernie beats Trump better than Hillary beats Trump. Explain why she is the safe choice. Explain why she is the will of the people, for that matter.

in all the polling available, Hillary should have crushed Sanders in Michigan.

what actually happened?

Polling is an estimate of private companies on who will and won't show up on election day, and not a substitute for actual voting behavior.
 

lednerg

Member
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.
 
In all the polling available, Bernie beats Trump better than Hillary beats Trump. Explain why she is the safe choice. Explain why she is the will of the people, for that matter.
You're still not explaining how Bernie wins the primary on any "will of" metric. Any GE talk is meaningless without actually winning the primary first.
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.
Moot, technically, and a lot of us are in no mood to argue until you answer some really basic stuff.

How is Bernie winning? How is he "will of"?
Popular vote? No.
Delegates? No.
Just pledged? No.
With supers? No.
With the Democratic GE coalition? No.
Swing states needed in November? No.
 
In all the polling available, Bernie beats Trump better than Hillary beats Trump. Explain why she is the safe choice. Explain why she is the will of the people, for that matter.

As has been said to you multiple time over, GE polling is beyond useless during the primary season.

More people are willing to vote for Hillary, right now, than any other candidate running. Based on actual votes that are taking place, she is what people are choosing.
 

Tubie

Member
If someone could just define, in objective terms, "will of the people" for me, I'd be happy.

Yea I'm having a hard time too.

Maybe he means "the will of the (right) people" and some should just not count in order to make that statement true about Bernie.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
in all the polling available, Hillary should have crushed Sanders in Michigan.

what actually happened?

Polling is an estimate of private companies on who will and won't show up on election day, and not a substitute for actual voting behavior.

Good thing the polling has been off everywhere so your argument has weight... oh wait.
 

Makai

Member
He's the one who lives in Europe! I have to explain anti-Muslim sentiment to him? Maybe this is why Europeans think there isn't any racism there, they literally don't know the word.
Oh. I thought he was American because he wanted to cash in his American Dream ticket.
 

Holmes

Member
The North Dakota Republican convention is this weekend by the way. In other words, the party will choose a slate of 28 "unpledged" pro-Cruz delegates.
 

pigeon

Banned
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.

You've really made a world tour of SandersGAF talking points by now.

Hillary is better on trade, better on inmigration, better on guns, better on finreg, better on social justice, better on fracking even. Hillary has better policies than Sanders on every topic except for foreign policy, and even there she wins because Sanders's policy is deliberate ignorance.

Hillary's substantively better as a presidential candidate.

Let me offer you the opposite question: name one way Sanders is actually better than Hillary.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
He most definitely isn't the will of most PoC. You know the groups that make up the Democratic Party and are needed to win a Democratic Primary and general election.
 

shem935

Banned
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.

A. You hadn't asked before.
B. What about your previous question that was immediately torn down and debunked?
C. I'm sure you have in good faith researched her positions to see what she wants accomplished.

D.
Her stances on LGBT issues. Her decades of advocacy for women and children. Her decades of work on bringing about real change to our healthcare system, again especially for women and children. The fact that she knows how to get things done, not just preach from on high about how bad everything is. Her understanding of foreign policy. The fact that she understands intersectionality, and realizes that everything in the universe can't be distilled down to "millionaires and billionaires." Her record on gun control.

Well put.
 

hawk2025

Member
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.


Aaaand we have reached the moon. Low-gravity Rocket League.


But hell, since you asked, here's mine from page 8:

I won't pretend to answer for him, but for me it's quite simple. The policy differences are fairly small across many dimensions, so you can freely assume that I agree with those across the board, including increasing taxes on the rich. For me, it's more about the differences in implementation and specifics of policies rather than large ones, with one major exception: Trade.

  • I see being anti-trade as a disastrous step back for our economy and the way the democratic party reacts to empirical evidence. We should be past the point of starting trade wars and imposing tariffs. This is a settled question as a generality, that requires discussing the specifics of how to tackle the effects of free trade. Sanders wants us to roll back the clock to the generality, and it's a big mistake.
  • Sanders' tax plan is confusing and potentially disastrous. The positive effects of the tax revenue (health care, higher education) are not distributed evenly across time and often require long-run effects, but it still potentially involves significant tax increases for the lower rungs of the distribution in the short-run. I've seen no evidence that he has a plan to resolve the time dimension of the issue, and no evidence that he has the right people to do so by his side.
  • I am completely unconvinced by the argument for free college, because there has been little to no practical discussion on how to resolve the supply side issues of faculty and student positions once the price drops to zero. Second, I am not convinced that incentive-compatible college debt is necessarily inferior to non-incentive-compatible tax increases for everyone. Targeted subsidies and the ease of the debt burden, along with a plan to decrease high education costs, is a much better approach to the education debt problem in the country.
  • His dismissal of the technocrat tradition of the democratic party is concerning. The major warning sign was the dismissal of critiques from the left of his economic plan by the likes of Krueger and Krugman, and the embracing of the braindead (and now thoroughly dismissed) economic analysis of the Friedman study instead. I see it as a giant warning sign of his capability of delegating on things that he does not understand, especially when coupled with the anti-trade rhetoric.
 
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.

Her stances on LGBT issues. Her decades of advocacy for women and children. Her decades of work on bringing about real change to our healthcare system, again especially for women and children. The fact that she knows how to get things done, not just preach from on high about how bad everything is. Her understanding of foreign policy. The fact that she understands intersectionality, and realizes that everything in the universe can't be distilled down to "millionaires and billionaires." Her record on gun control.
 

CCS

Banned
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Donald "Spread it out in small doses" Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.

1. Her policies actually stand some chance of being implemented.
2. I trust her to deal with issues that come up in foreign policy better than Bernie, due to his complete lack of experience.
3. Unlike Bernie, there aren't issues where her plan is completely fucking insane (see the Federal Reserve).
4. I believe she has more and better ideas for how to help women, minorities, and LGBTQ people.
5. She has raised money and provided support to down ticket candidates, unlike Bernie.
6. I don't agree with key aspects of Bernie's plan, such as completely free college and some of his tax rises.
7. Her campaign speeches and pledges show she understands a wide variety of issues, whereas Sanders reduces almost everything to income inequality.

Want more?
 
In this case, the argument that Bernie has the will of the people boils down to Bernie has the will of the most vocal people. Voting matters, and to dismiss actual results is insane
 
Nobody has been able to tell me or anyone what's so great about Hillary aside from some promise that she'd beat Trump, the worst candidate the GOP has had in ages.

Hillary plans to largely continue the policies of the current president, who enjoys fairly high popularity among democrats and is at better than 50% approval with the electorate as a whole. There are a few things she's a bit more left on than Obama is, but there's not really going to be any surprises there.

This is perfectly fine and in fact preferable to most democrats voting, which is why Hillary is winning.

Sanders is NOT doing this, and floats laughable policies that wouldn't get past a democratic congress, let alone the one we have. The entire strategy of the sanders administration relies entirely on a democratic "revolution" that does not exist, and he's literally planning to yell and shame republicans into going along with his agenda. I prefer my candidates to have some idea of how laws actually get passed and put into play. Hillary isn't perfect, but is pragmatic enough to ground what she wants to do somewhere in the land of reality.
 

CCS

Banned
1. Her policies actually stand some chance of being implemented.
2. I trust her to deal with issues that come up in foreign policy better than Bernie, due to his complete lack of experience.
3. Unlike Bernie, there aren't issues where her plan is completely fucking insane (see the Federal Reserve).
4. I believe she has more and better ideas for how to help women, minorities, and LGBTQ people.
5. She has raised money and provided support to down ticket candidates, unlike Bernie.
6. I don't agree with key aspects of Bernie's plan, such as completely free college and some of his tax rises.
7. Her campaign speeches and pledges show she understands a wide variety of issues, whereas Sanders reduces almost everything to income inequality.

Want more?

Actually, let me add some more since I'm already going.

8. Does not have a populist, economically illiterate trade policy.
9. Strong supporter of gun control.
10. Has plans for financial regulation that address the actual problems rather than common false targets.
 

lednerg

Member
You're still not explaining how Bernie wins the primary on any "will of" metric. Any GE talk is meaningless without actually winning the primary first.
Moot, technically, and a lot of us are in no mood to argue until you answer some really basic stuff.

The "will of" metric has to do with how many individuals are donating to his campaign. HINT: it far eclipses Hillary.

As has been said to you multiple time over, GE polling is beyond useless during the primary season.

More people are willing to vote for Hillary, right now, than any other candidate running. Based on actual votes that are taking place, she is what people are choosing.

But all you're talking about is the results of the Democratic primaries. That's not telling me anything about Hillary as a GE candidate, which is the entire point of this exercise. Go ahead and find me a Republican who would ever entertain voting for an elite establishment DNC candidate like Hillary.
 

Armaros

Member
in all the polling available, Hillary should have crushed Sanders in Michigan.

what actually happened?

Polling is an estimate of private companies on who will and won't show up on election day, and not a substitute for actual voting behavior.

Why is it that Bernie Supporters cling to Michigan and when the reasons why the poll was off are well documented and Hillary ended up sweeping the next 5 States as predicted by polling.
 
In this case, the argument that Bernie has the will of the people boils down to Bernie has the will of the most vocal people. Voting matters, and to dismiss actual results is insane

But, see, if you only count the voters in the states that actually matter, Bernie is ahead! There's a list of states that matter. I'm pretty sure it's on Reddit, somewhere, between a post about the indictment and EARLY VOTING IS FRAUD!!!one!!11eleven
 

Makai

Member
Donald Trump Playboy interview from 1990

How do you feel about Japan’s economic pre-eminence?

Japan gets almost seventy percent of its oil from the Persian Gulf, relies on ships led back home by our destroyers, battleships, helicopters, frog men. Then the Japanese sail home, where they give the oil to fuel their factories so that they can knock the hell out of General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. Their openly screwing us is a disgrace. Why aren't they paying us? The Japanese cajole us, they bow to us, they tell us how great we are and then they pick our pockets. We're losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year while they laugh at our stupidity. The Japanese have their great scientists making cars and VCRs and we have our great scientists making missiles so we can defend Japan. Why aren't we being reimbursed for our costs? The Japanese double- screw the U.S., a real trick: First they take all our money with their consumer goods, then they put it back in buying all of Manhattan. So either way, we lose.

You're opposed to Japanese buying real estate in the U.S.?

I have great respect for the Japanese people and list many of them as great friends. But, hey, if you want to open up a business in Japan, good luck. It's virtually impossible. But the Japanese can buy our buildings, our Wall Street firms, and there's virtually no.thing to stop them. In fact, bidding on a building in New York is an act of futility, because the Japanese will pay more than it's worth just to screw us. They want to own Manhattan. Of course, I shouldn't even be complaining about it, because I'm one of the big beneficiaries of it. If I ever wanted to sell any of my properties, I'd have a field day. But it's an embarrassment! I give great credit to the Japanese and their leaders, because they have made our leaders look totally second rate.

A group of Japanese visitors to New York was recently asked if there were anything in the U.S. they would like to buy. The answer: towels.

That's fair trade: They'll take the towels and we'll buy their cars. It doesn’t sound like a good deal to me. They have totally outsmarted the American politician; they have no respect for us, because they're getting a free ride. Of course, it's not just the Japanese or the Europeans- the Saudis, the Kuwaitis walk all over us.

The Arabs also spend plenty of money in your casinos, don't they?

They lose a million, two million at the tables and they're so happy because they had such a great weekend. If you lost a million dollars, you'd be sick for the rest of your life, maybe. They write me letters telling me what a wonderful time they had.

You have taken out full-page ads in several major newspapers that not only concern U.S. foreign trade but call for the death penalty, too. Why?

Because I hate seeing this country go to hell. We're laughed at by the rest of the world. In order to bring law and order back into our cities, we need the death penalty and authority given back to the police. I got fifteen thousand positive letters on the death-penalty ad. I got ten negative or slightly negative ones.
 
Full release from Fallon:

*Brian Fallon released the following statement in response to Senator Sanders refusal to accept a debate date:*



“The Sanders campaign needs to stop with the games.



“Over the course of the last week, we have offered three specific dates for a debate in New York, all of which the Sanders campaign rejected. We offered Monday, April 4 at 7:30 pm. We were told that the Sanders campaign rejected this date because they wanted the debate to be held after the Wisconsin primary and would make themselves available on any date between Wisconsin and New York. We then offered the night of April 14th and that was rejected by Sanders. While we preferred to do an evening debate on the 14th, we then agreed to a debate on Good Morning America on April 15, understanding that the Sanders campaign had already agreed to this forum. That, too, was rejected.



“Both offers for the night of April 14 and the morning of April 15 still remain. The Sanders campaign needs to stop using the New York primary as a playground for political games and negative attacks against Hillary Clinton. The voters of New York deserve better. Senator Sanders and his team should stop the delays and accept a debate on April 14 or the morning of April 15th.”

Bernie is a mess.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Bernie has had ample opportunity to put up or shut up on his "revolution" / "will of the people" schtick. He has failed. Remarkably. If this were legit, he'd have The People's asses at the polls already - not in some mythological future general election where the GOP attack machine hasn't dinged his numbers. NOW was the time for this to happen. Not just November.

He's had his chance to present proof of concept. He has failed - and by no small margin - against a primary opponent who's forced to fight him with kid gloves on, out of the fear of hurting his supporters' feewings. Meanwhile, he can swing away at her, cowardly promote all sorts of corruption innuendos without concrete proof, and smile as his supporters do the more explicit dirty work themselves.

Nothing anyone says, no amount of spin or fanciful rhetoric can undo this failure. He's blown his chance. If you can invent a Delorean to give him a second shot at demonstrating that he is The People's Choice, then by all means, please proceed.
 
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