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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I was honestly surprised yesterday. I've talked on here before about how my mother is the regional director of a crisis pregnancy center, and how she is extremely pro-life. Yesterday she brought up Trump wanting to punish women who've had abortions and was absolutely disgusted by the idea. I honestly figured her for the type who'd absolutely eat up Trump's message on abortion. I don't see her ever voting for Hillary, but she thinks Trump and Sanders are both unfit for the job.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
IRON EYES 2016

CfD9cHOUEAAn61a.jpg:large


FUCK YOUR TIM CARVONA I LOVE THIS MAN
 
I was honestly surprised yesterday. I've talked on here before about how my mother is the regional director of a crisis pregnancy center, and how she is extremely pro-life. Yesterday she brought up Trump wanting to punish women who've had abortions and was absolutely disgusted by the idea. I honestly figured her for the type who'd absolutely eat up Trump's message on abortion. I don't see her ever voting for Hillary, but she thinks Trump and Sanders are both unfit for the job.

Most pro-life women people I know are extremely sympathetic in a very paternalistic (maternalistic?) way. They think a lot of women are making the choice because they are pressured, tricked, or unaware of what they're doing.

I think its mostly pro-life men who are "angry" at the women.
 

Kangi

Member

Bernie's actually taking a fair bit of negative press over this. His claims have gotten so dishonest and desperate, and some liberal sites are outright calling it Republican-esque.

About time he's held accountable for his "artful smears". And now this stuff with claiming Hillary is scared to debate him yet his campaign has turned down several New York debate offers...
 

Farmboy

Member
Obama's internals in 2008 were pretty much dead-on from what I remember--something we knew because he let 538 use them in the model.

Cool. Is that something that happens more often now, campaigns sharing their internals with those sites? I suppose when you know you're winning it can help build a narrative.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cool. Is that something that happens more often now, campaigns sharing their internals with those sites? I suppose when you know you're winning it can help build a narrative.

Not that I can tell, it was just Obama. I don't even remember if he did it again in 2012.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
FYI, here are the people the Dems nominated at their convention:

0402%20Nelson%20Heckaman.jpg


http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/ne...-endorse-nelson-heckaman-gubernatorial-ticket

Governor: ND Rep. Marvin Nelson
Lt. Governor: ND Sen. Joan Heckaman
ND-At Large: Chase Iron Eyes

But:

The endorsements of Nelson and Sen. Joan Heckaman of New Rockford for lieutenant governor still leave the party with no announced candidates for five endorsed statewide offices: U.S. Senate and state treasurer, auditor, tax commissioner and Public Service Commissioner.

Oversen said she did not know if any candidates would step up for those positions Saturday.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Most pro-life women people I know are extremely sympathetic in a very paternalistic (maternalistic?) way. They think a lot of women are making the choice because they are pressured, tricked, or unaware of what they're doing.

I think its mostly pro-life men who are "angry" at the women.

That's fair. I've just seen her get so heated before when I try to discuss the issue with her at all. I was just surprised to learn that about her considering how red in the face pissed she gets when I talk about 'legal safe and rare' and sex education stuff. It seemed like such an absolute evil in her mind that I figured she'd want to see women punished along with the doctors performing it.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
This is so fucking upsetting because this should've been a good seat to win:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...s-from-Chester-County-Congressional-race.html

WASHINGTON -- Democrat Lindy Li, who has been running for Congress in a Chester County-based race, has withdrawn from the contest, according to a court order signed late Friday.

Her decision leaves Mike Parrish, a Malvern businessman, as Democrats' only candidate in a race that the national party had targeted -- though its hopes have faded as he has disappointed with anemic fund-raising.

Republican Ryan Costello is seeking his second term in the district, Pennsylvania's sixth. Democrats have long hoped to claim it, and might have a better chance this year with Donald Trump or Ted Cruz likely to lead the GOP ticket, but they are now left with one candidate who had less than $30,000 in his campaign fund as of his last report.

"I'm not running for Congress," in 2016, Li said in a telephone interview Saturday morning.

Parrish had challenged the validity of her nominating petition, and after a three-day trial in Commonwealth Court Li agreed to withdraw and not run for any other office this year.

"We were leading the polls by a substantial margin and we are far more well resourced, but I wish him the very best," said Li, a 25-year-old Princeton-graduate. "I will be running again."

She did not specify which office she would seek in the future. She noted that she had raised $600,000 as a first-time candidate, but had to spend much of it during the trial.

Attorney Kevin Greenberg, representing the Parrish campaign and three allied objectors, had said Li's petition included numerous flaws, including signatures from unregistered voters, voters from other districts and registered Republicans and independents. Li said the main problem was that her notary failed to keep a proper log.

"I've learned my lesson and no one will be able to exploit my weaknesses in the future," she said. "I'm just terribly sorry about what happened, it breaks my heart."
 

CCS

Banned
If a state does not elect someone with as awesome a name as Rep. Iron Eyes they do not deserve to exist.
 

Prologue

Member
Bernie's actually taking a fair bit of negative press over this. His claims have gotten so dishonest and desperate, and some liberal sites are outright calling it Republican-esque.

About time he's held accountable for his "artful smears". And now this stuff with claiming Hillary is scared to debate him yet his campaign has turned down several New York debate offers...

Weren't some of the suggested debate times around popular sport events?
 

Armaros

Member
Weren't some of the suggested debate times around popular sport events?

Only the one on the 4th, the others 14th or 15th dont have any NCAA games. And the tax deadline for this year is the 18th, so they dont have really any excuses.

Also GMA debates have had higher ratings also, so that line of attack doesn't work either.

Them expecting to get the exact date and time for a debate in their position is pretty laughable. Especially with their attempt to attack her on it.

They said they didn't want that one on the 4th because it's before Wisconsin, in addition to the NCAA thing. I really don't think they want one, they just want to hit her for not having a debate with him in NY.

Most likely, I imagine he is trying to setup donations and rallies around the idea that she is running scared in NY.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Only the one on the 4th, the others 14 or 15 dont have any NCAA games. And the tax deadline for this year is the 18th, so they dont have really any excuses.

Also GMA debates have had higher ratings also, so that line of attack doesn't work either.

They said they didn't want that one on the 4th because it's before Wisconsin, in addition to the NCAA thing. I really don't think they want one, they just want to hit her for not having a debate with him in NY.
 

sdijoseph

Member
Parrish has only raised like $27,000 and was going to lose and pulled this crap. Ugh.

I mean it's Li's fault, but still. He's such a bad candidate.

I just checked the results of the 2014 elections and Costello won by 12.6%, the smallest margin of victory in any of the house races in PA. Is there still a slight chance it could flip? I'm not super familiar with how House races usually work.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I just checked the results of the 2014 elections and Costello won by 12.6%, the smallest margin of victory in any of the house races in PA. Is there still a slight chance it could flip? I'm not super familiar with how House races usually work.

Against a legitimate candidate, yes. But Parrish is a bad candidate :-(
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Does having debates in certain states even matter to how it ends up voting? No one in Texas really cared there was a special debate there.

Not really. I imagine he wants it for the optics of attacking Wall Street while in NYC though, or since he doesn't seem to want it so he can hit Clinton for not debating him.
 
How hard is it to be better than the republican candidate though?
About as hard as it is to just declare yourself a Democrat I would guess.

Arlen Specter (who switched parties in 2009 giving Dems their 60th - technically 59th vote since Franken hadn't been seated yet) said getting to vote however he wanted after switching parties was a liberating experience. I'm sure he got a shit ton of pressure from the GOP to be an asshole.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

As someone who specifically did this in 2004 and 2008 - Oh hell yes it does. (Pretty sure I'd get angry texts if I go further). I can think of 3 off the top of my head where we had a pretty significant (relatively speaking) difference between internals and public - and we went with the internals and were able to pull out some major surprises that had people going "WTF!!". The best way to do it is really to create a probabilistic range of data, and go from there. That lets you attack a swath of targets, and sometimes points out where some plays that seem low probability on the face have such high upsides that the percentages are worth going for. (or, vice versa)

It also helps us use our resources much more effectively. Alternatively, terrible / cherry-picked internals can screw you up immensely (Hi Clinton 08 and Romney 12!). A lot of it comes down to your leadership and their willingness to believe the data, as well as their understanding of the assumptions. If you want an understanding of my view of politics, the boss-man once told me "you are fucking paranoid, aren't you?". My response was something a friend of mine told me years ago: "There are two forms of paranoia - absolute and insufficient." He laughed his ass off. It was pretty funny.

From an outsider view, it seems Clinton has been much more willing to accept the data on the ground in 2016 than she was in 2008, and I think it has been helping her immensely.

Obama's internals in 2008 were pretty much dead-on from what I remember--something we knew because he let 538 use them in the model.

<whistles innocently>

There are days I sometimes regret not going to DC. :-/ (then I see the shitshow it is and don't have those regrets)
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Just tweeted at the ND Dem-NPL party to see if there's a link to donate to Iron Eyes. Nothing on ActBlue, either, though Nelson has a website.
 
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