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[Macho Madness]

Not that it really means much but with that new WI poll, 538 polls plus put Hillary's chance of winning at 51%.

 

[User 463088]

Many hugs <3

Thanks bae. The best part was my mom launching herself at the PE coach. Literally. Launching herself at him. Plus, I got to be homeschooled after that. It's why I started college classes at 14. w00t w00t.

Not that it really means much but with that new WI poll, 538 polls plus put Hillary's chance of winning at 51%.

Don't do this to me 538. Don't get my hopes up then rip them away.

 

[aspiegamer]

Not that it really means much but with that new WI poll, 538 polls plus put Hillary's chance of winning at 51%.

After Walker, a lot of Democrats here aren't interested in taking chances. Ever again. Ever. We can also smell bullshit a mile away, often literally, depending on where you are in the state. I guess if you want to get technical, we can smell bullshit from a solid 10 miles away, depending on the temperature and the wind.

 

[CCS]

Thanks bae. The best part was my mom launching herself at the PE coach. Literally. Launching herself at him. Plus, I got to be homeschooled after that. It's why I started college classes at 14. w00t w00t.



Don't do this to me 538. Don't get my hopes up then rip them away.

Your mum is the best person ever.

If Hillary wins there I will ejaculate so hard it will take out the International Space Station.

 

[User 463088]

If Hillary wins there I will ejaculate so hard it will take out the International Space Station.

Go on....

 

[johnsmith]

GJ, Bernie.

Bernie Sanders' dropping favorability is good news for him. Here's why. - HA Goodman

 

[CCS]

Bernie Sanders' dropping favorability is good news for him. Here's why. - HA Goodman

Hillary Clinton winning the nomination has just handed the presidency to Bernie Sanders.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Hillary Clinton winning the nomination has just handed the presidency to Bernie Sanders.

2020: Hillary Clinton being re-elected in a landslide has just handed the presidency to Bernie Sanders

 

[NeoXChaos]

are the networks doing a WI, NY and PA, CT, DE, RI, MD polls?

 

[CCS]

Go on....

Interstellar salt-powered missile go!

2020: Hillary Clinton being re-elected in a landslide has just handed the presidency to Bernie Sanders

5 reasons Bernie Sanders retiring from politics has ensure his victory in the presidential race

 

[Makai]

https://www.powerpuffyourself.com/

 

[Holmes]

are the networks doing a WI, NY and PA, CT, DE, RI, MD polls?

There will be exit polls for Wisconsin and I have no doubt that there will be one for New York and all the April 26 states.

 

[User 463088]

Some YouGov numbers:

Hillary 53
Bernie 40

And why Bernie's in trouble, if you ask only registered Democrats

Hillary 62
Bernie 34

There's also no enthusiasm gap among registered Democrats, if you add up enthusiastic and satisfied together:

Hillary 83%
Bernie 82%

(Hillary edges Bernie out in the "enthusiastic" metric just by a bit.

27% of Bernie's supporters would be upset if Hillary gets the nod, compared to only 9% of her supporters who would be upset if Bernie gets the nod over her.

Also, on who best can win, Hillary leads 68/22. So, I think Bernie should keep beating that "more electable" drum. It's working well.


On the GOP side:

Trump 48
Cruz 29
Kasich 18


Also, 50% of Independents and 22% of Republicans would be upset if Trump is the nominee. LOLOLOLOL Please proceed.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/49zz3owrrw/econTabReport.pdf

 

[CCS]

Some YouGov numbers:

Hillary 53
Bernie 40

And why Bernie's in trouble, if you ask only registered Democrats

Hillary 62
Bernie 34

There's also no enthusiasm gap among registered Democrats, if you add up enthusiastic and satisfied together:

Hillary 83%
Bernie 82%

(Hillary edges Bernie out in the "enthusiastic" metric just by a bit.

27% of Bernie's supporters would be upset if Hillary gets the nod, compared to only 9% of her supporters who would be upset if Bernie gets the nod over her.

Also, on who best can win, Hillary leads 68/22. So, I think Bernie should keep beating that "more electable" drum. It's working well.


On the GOP side:

Trump 48
Cruz 29
Kasich 18


Also, 50% of Independents and 22% of Republicans would be upset if Trump is the nominee. LOLOLOLOL Please proceed.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/49zz3owrrw/econTabReport.pdf

Oh yaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssss.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

https://www.powerpuffyourself.com/

This was me.

 

[Macho Madness]

After Walker, a lot of Democrats here aren't interested in taking chances. Ever again. Ever. We can also smell bullshit a mile away, often literally, depending on where you are in the state. I guess if you want to get technical, we can smell bullshit from a solid 10 miles away, depending on the temperature and the wind.

All I've heard about Wisconsin is that it's a very progressive conservative state.

 

[ivysaur12]

It me

Also I'm so sick of this primary

 

[Holmes]

And why Bernie's in trouble, if you ask only registered Democrats

Hillary 62
Bernie 34

That New York sneak peak.

 

[Makai]

Just to be clear, I made Donald Trump.

 

[B-Dubs]

And why Bernie's in trouble, if you ask only registered Democrats

Hillary 62
Bernie 34

Given the noise from his campaign about NY, I assume this is close to his internals.

 

[User 463088]

 

[Makai]

DNC Chairman

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Also, 50% of Independents and 22% of Republicans would be upset if Trump is the nominee. LOLOLOLOL Please proceed.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/49zz3owrrw/econTabReport.pdf

Proceed with what? The party has made it perfectly clear they won't let him be the nominee unless he gets to 1237 on his own.

 

[Holmes]

Hello bitches

 

[Kangi]

Well, it's slightly more accurate than my Mii, I guess?

 

[CCS]

Sup bitches.

 

[User 463088]

Sup bitches.

You have very gay eyes. <3

 

[CCS]

You have very gay eyes. <3

I strive for very gayness

 

[NeoXChaos]

Dave Wasserman &#8207;@Redistrict 1m1 minute ago
Demographically, the 3 states closest to being a "microcosm of Dems nationally" are actually FL, NV, NJ, NY. Not WI.

 

[Poodlestrike]

This is what we're doing now.

Powerpuff people.

 

[Holmes]

This is what we're doing now.

Powerpuff people.

Where is yours?

 

[royalan]

Fun distraction from work.

 

[Makai]

you're supposed to make politicians

 

[royalan]

you're supposed to make politicians

Not enough long tunics and big bank logos to make Hillary.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Where is yours?

I'm super salty 'cause they don't have anything that looks like my glasses. Closest thing is so tacky, ugh.

Also, no poodle! The fuck's up with that?

 

[Farmboy]

I think her internals are showing it fairly close. I don't think she's going to win, but if she can keep him under 52 that's huge win.

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Dave Wasserman &#8207;@Redistrict 1m1 minute ago
Demographically, the 3 states closest to being a "microcosm of Dems nationally" are actually FL, NV, NJ, NY. Not WI.

Hey look, a state she won by like 6, a state that she won by like 30, and two states she'll probably win by around the middle of those two.

Man good thing Bernie is padding his lead by winning all those blue states.

 

[Armaros]

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

They get to use data that is polled from voter rolls directly from the DNC, which has been collected over years and years of likely dem voters.

It is still up to the campaigns to parse the information as they will (like how Romney's campagin unskewed their internal polling until the night of the election) And you hire internal pollsters that do what 538 do but just for the campaign.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

Harry Reid's internals had him leading by about 6 in 2010, which is about exactly where he landed. Public polling had his opponent up by about 2.

He did a lot of work to draw Hispanic support, which pollsters totally low balled.

 

[Makai]

Not enough long tunics and big bank logos to make Hillary.

(prison garb)

 

[B-Dubs]

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

Obama's internals in 2008 were pretty much dead-on from what I remember--something we knew because he let 538 use them in the model.

 

[Makai]

Jeb

(left pants at home)

 

[bananas]

.

Jeb

(left pants at home)

what a mess

 

[ampere]

Jeb



(left pants at home)

*doesn't clap*

 

[Tamanon]

We doin' this huh?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

They have access to campaign data so they make assumptions that public polls (which often rely on previous elections or common assumptions) can't or don't want to.

 

[ivysaur12]

spittin' truth

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion...rs-campaign/iQXKhLKcLadSzNhbxo2WOI/story.html

Make no mistake, these are legitimate attacks on Clinton, but they do contradict Sanders’ pledge to avoid personal attacks and character assassination. Sanders cannot regularly suggest that Clinton is bought and sold by corporate, moneyed interests and then say he’s running a campaign on the issues. He’s openly attacking her integrity. In a recent TV interview, Sanders even went after what he called the “corporate media” for not covering the issues he cares about, because, he said, mainstream journalists are taking cues from their corporate paymasters. In Sanders’ world, everyone but him and his supporters are tainted.

There’s also the much bigger question of why he is doing this. Sanders likes to tell his supporters that he has the momentum to win the Democratic nomination. But the simple fact is that it would take a miracle for Sanders to overtake Clinton’s wide delegate lead. As campaign stat guru Nate Silver pointed out recently, even in the most optimistic scenario for Sanders, he would still likely fall short.

While I understand the need to maintain a brave face for his supporters, Sanders is doing them and the party he wants to represent no favors not just by misleading them about his chances, but by increasing their dislike of Clinton. Sanders has said on more than one occasion that he thinks Clinton “on her worst day” would be an “infinitely better candidate and president than the Republican candidate on his best day.” I have no doubt that he believes this. Perhaps he should start acting like it.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

They have access to campaign data so they make assumptions that public polls (which often rely on previous elections or common assumptions) can't or don't want to.

They're also more likely to pay for the best polling whereas many pollsters push out cheap trash because it doesn't make any difference to them.

 

[ivysaur12]

Sounds like the ND Dems got some legitimate candidates. Little chance of them winning, but with Trump at the top of the ticket and the elasticity in the state, idk idk

http://www.inforum.com/news/legisla...idates-state-treasurer-insurance-commissioner

Democrats also have endorsements scheduled this afternoon for U.S. House and Senate, Public Service Commission and state auditor.

The only announced candidate for any of those seats is Chase Iron Eyes, a Fort Yates attorney and American Indian activist running for Congress. Party Executive Director Robert Haider said there will a nomination from the floor for U.S. Senate, but wouldn&#8217;t say who it is.

On Friday, delegates endorsed state Rep. Marvin Nelson of Rolla for governor and state Sen. Joan Heckaman of New Rockford for lieutenant governor.

Fuck yeah Rep. Iron Eyes is a badass name.

I love him this is such a profound story that really resonates with the alcoholism/addiction epidemic in native american communities:

http://bismarcktribune.com/news/sta...cle_89383255-d94d-51b0-9077-4b845a0d8783.html

&#8216;I hit rock bottom:' Now an attorney, U.S. House hopeful Iron Eyes served time for 2002 burglary, theft incident

Chase Iron Eyes says he doesn&#8217;t remember stealing the car when he left the bowling alley in Bismarck on that fateful day almost 14 years ago.

He doesn&#8217;t remember how he ended up alone at the house with the kicked-in door, or why he walked out of it carrying two cases of antique shotguns when the police showed up.

&#8220;I couldn&#8217;t really piece together the whole thing. I was blank-out drunk,&#8221; he said.

Now 38 years old, a decade sober and seeking the North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party&#8217;s endorsement for Congress, Iron Eyes said he&#8217;s not trying to hide his past and hopes voters will see him for what he&#8217;s done with his life since then.

&#8220;That wasn&#8217;t my character then. It was a very serious mistake that I took responsibility for. When you go through something like that, you think your life is over. You hit rock bottom, and I hit rock bottom. And for some reason, God saw fit to give me a second chance,&#8221; he said. &#8220;I regained the strength to believe that I was not going to let that incident define me.&#8221;

The Fort Yates attorney and American Indian activist said he plans to address his past when he speaks to convention delegates this afternoon at the Bismarck Event Center.

Dem-NPL Executive Director Robert Haider said Iron Eyes had disclosed his history to party officials.

&#8220;It&#8217;s a built-in narrative of redemption,&#8221; he said. &#8220;He was young and made some mistakes. When he served his time, he could have gone one of two directions, and he turned his life around.&#8221;

Iron Eyes said he was &#8220;a pretty serious alcoholic&#8221; at that point in his life. He had graduated from the University of North Dakota two years earlier and had taken the law school entrance exam but had been rejected by some law schools.

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&#8220;It was a difficult time,&#8221; he said.

Records show he was charged in June 2002 in Burleigh County District Court with four felony charges: burglary, preventing arrest, theft of property and criminal mischief.

Because of the shotguns, he also was charged in federal court with felony possession of stolen firearms that had moved in interstate commerce, he said.

He contested the criminal charges, but a jury found him guilty of the firearms charge, so he agreed to plead guilty to the state charges in a plea agreement, he said. He served 10 months at the minimum-security Missouri River Correctional Center in Bismarck and was ordered to pay about $3,600 in restitution.

Iron Eyes was released from probation in March 2007 &#8212; two months before he graduated with a law degree from the University of Denver&#8217;s Sturm College of Law. He said he had to appear before a panel and tell his story before they would accept him into law school and likewise had to go before the South Dakota Supreme Court and go through a rigorous character and fitness hearing &#8220;to prove that I was morally fit to practice law.&#8221;

Now, he&#8217;s licensed to practice in state and federal court in South Dakota and federal court in North Dakota &#8212; including in Bismarck, the very court where he was convicted.

Iron Eyes said he knew his criminal history would surface when he decided to run for Congress. Republican U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer is seeking a third two-year term in office, and Libertarian Party candidate Robert &#8220;Jack&#8221; Seaman also is running. Haider said he didn&#8217;t know of any other Democrats seeking the endorsement.

&#8220;Obviously, I knew this was going to come up,&#8221; Iron Eyes said. &#8220;I&#8217;ve addressed it with the people who support me. I&#8217;m going to address it at the convention. I&#8217;m asking people to focus on what I&#8217;ve done with my life since those rock-bottom days.&#8221;

Iron Eyes also addressed why he recently deleted his social media accounts, suggesting Iron Eyes may be trying to hide political views that voters would find extreme &#8212; referencing his writings on Last Real Indians, a website founded by Iron Eyes which he says is now managed by a friend on the West Coast.

&#8220;I&#8217;m not a groomed politician, so my social media presence reflected my humor, my sarcasm, my role as a leader in the Native American community and a social justice activist,&#8221; Iron Eyes said. &#8220;The risk of having people take things out of context is too great .... I&#8217;ve never done this before and need to do this from the ground up.&#8221;

 

[Makai]

Something I've been wondering: are these campaign internals really so much better than public polling, especially aggregated polling? I mean, they're always cited as something the candidates might know that isn't public knowledge, but I dunno... Are there any war stories about campaign internals showing something so different from polling that it lead to a brilliant, day-saving tactical play?

We've seen the opposite with Romney.