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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Box of Kittens
Banned
The superdelegate system was first created before the 1984 convention. Since then, they have always given the nomination to the pledged delegate leader, even in cases where they could have been used to deny the nomination.
Now the modern nomination system itself only dates back to the 1972 convention. Prior to that, primaries did not have the same amount of importance they do now.
No?
Or maybe, just maybe the People of NY are big Bernie supporters and all of us arent going to simply vote for her because she was our Senator for 8 years. Maybe its possible that people are realizing that he supports what the people of NY need more than she does?
Thats impossible though.
Yep.
Tell me how you will feel if Bernie barely wins.
We are talking about the guy down double digits rite?
Retromelon
Member
Can you please with this.
"Hillary needs to drop out, she's boring and has nothing exciting to offer"
Wake up sheeple
Yes? We are talking about the guy that shrunk her lead over the last few days rite?
She will most likely win NY but its going to be pretty close. Bernie is very popular here. New York is not a gimmie for her. This is not her home state as much as her supporters want it to be.
Actually her lead has been relatively consistent over the last set of polls. Rite you can look that up in the receipts. Admittedly this is two polls.
New York is a gimme for Hillary.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
Bernie shooting for the "moderate to huge losses in delegate rich states" strategy, it's pretty balllsy, but it's far too soon to know if it will pay off.
Is that your final answer?
Devine gotsta get PAID
What is Bernie going to do that Hillary won't?
And I don't mean, what unrealistic promises does Bernie make, I mean what will he do that she won't.
User 463088
Banned
You can't really compare margins between pollsters and claim momentum. Each has a different likely voter screen, typically. YouGov has been very proBernie. I think it's a methodology thing. But, I do think it's going to be closer than a lot of people think.
Officerrob
Banned
I have always thought New York was going to tighten and Hillary would win by 10-12
Box of Kittens
Banned
Don't underestimate the power of Brooklynites who knew Bernie 50 years ago telling their friends about him. I also imagine the numbers will tighten as Tyler adds more variables to his model.
Retromelon
Member
He is opposed to the nsa eroding our constitutional right to privacy and would shut it down, while Hillary's stance is fuck your privacy, we need to spy on all american citizens and trample the rights bestowed upon them by the founders to keep them safe, despite the fact that the nsa has been unable to point to a single instance where they managed to prevent a terrorist act. How's that?
Not impossible but foolish if you want to vote with such ideological purity that it costs us the WH and the SCOTUS.
If there wasn't so much on the line I'd almost want Bernie to win the primary so I can say I told you so after Trump or whoever on the GOP side beats him with relative ease in November.
I'd be wondering what happened to common fucking sense in the Democratic party.
User 463088
Banned
Bernie's not released his tax returns because his wife prepares them. I'm....I'm not sure I follow.
She's an establishment wife.
Ironic isn't it
Macho Madness
Member
The YouGov poll shows her weakness in New York is, as usual, millennials and whites. If you were an adult when she was Senator, you're probably voting for her.
Hispanics like her more than 18-29s like Bernie. That's weird.
Hispanics like her more than 18-29s like Bernie. That's weird.
Me too. Exploit all available credits (or loopholes) to get the lowest rate. There's a tax break for putting money in a Roth!
Appeals to common sense are the worst.
Macho Madness
Member
They also didn't ask if you were already registered to vote as a democrat in the primary. It probably wouldn't change much but it's an important question to ask this close to the primary when registration has passed.
Here's the 2008 exit poll for reference: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html
seriously. considering bernie won his home state by +50%, anything less than that for hillary has to be demoralizing for her team.
she might have to drop out
at the very least a campaign shakeup!
Macho Madness
Member
New York was never going to give her the margin he got in Vermont for many reasons. I'd have called anyone who said that idiots then and they're idiots now.
definitely. maybe sid blumenthal and lanny davis too. need all hands on deck...
Macho Madness
Member
I'm having way too much fun with Pinball Arcade.
The margin will be 20% and many people will take to reddit and say they weren't able to vote #StopDWS
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
If I had to guess, I'd suspect 20% too.
Of course, anything other than a win for Sanders is wayyy too little.
He needs a 10 point margin, but a win would justify him staying in the race.
Macho Madness
Member
Obama doesn't get any credit for Indiana's recovery despite being a major factor in it: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/0....html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1&referer=
That's depressing.
That's depressing.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I just want to know what pithy name he'll come up with for the KEY SWING VOTERS this cycle. I don't that anything can top "wired workers" though.
Also, they could really use his expertise on delegate math.
I would guess their appointments to cabinet and regulatory positions would be quite different, which can have a pretty big impact on enforcement of current laws and regulations.
Also, more important for me is what Bernie wouldn't do that Clinton would. I am worried that Hillary would be more likely to pass major entitlement cuts or other right wing legislation to compromise with republicans in ways I don't want. The big thing is foreign policy though. Everything I've read about her, including that recent Atlantic piece on the Obama doctrine, makes her seem a lot more hawkish than Obama. I don't think Bernie is as knowledgeable on the topic, but I do think his ideals seem to line up more with Obama's here.
He is the man that got Al Gore and John Kerry into the white house....
You can't be a perfect dove and be the POTUS. Foreign policy is incredibly complex and wielding the power that the USA has is an incredible responsibility. Is every decision perfect? No, nor will it ever be.
Can you imagine Sanders sitting across the table with Putin? Xi Jinping? I seriously can't.
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