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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Holmes

Member
Sanders when he loses the nomination and someone asks him who he endorses

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pigeon

Banned
Something I didn't see discussed about Trump's abortion fumbling is that when he started talking about what banning abortion would look like he went straight to talking about a pre-Roe state where there were still abortions but they were just done illegally (and unsafely). This is really weird! Obviously Trump's not the most sincere pro-lifer but this comes across as him having no idea how pro-lifers think. He's substituting a pro-choice caricature of pro-life ideology - "they want to go back to back-alley abortions!" - for the ideology itself. This is not how any pro-lifer would describe what they're trying to accomplish.

I think it's just more of Trump revealing that, on the social issues tied to religion, he's completely disconnected from the GOP base. He's clearly not religious or from a religious family -- he's got New York values, after all. He knows he's supposed to be pro-life if he's campaigning for the GOP nomination but I suspect his actual position is basically "what?"

It definitely speaks to how little effort Trump has actually made to identify what positions he is supposed to be holding or what there is to say about them. Again, I don't think Trump is any sort of skilled politician or master planner. I think he's just saying honestly what he thinks, which is that America used to be better and colored people should know their damn place. Just turns out to be exactly what the GOP base wants!
 
I am going through election withdrawals.

They should space it out so there are 3 states every Tuesday for the entire primary season.


Not sure how I am going to survive summer.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I am going through election withdrawals.

They should space it out so there are 3 states every Tuesday for the entire primary season.


Not sure how I am going to survive summer.
There's the Veepstakes, and then conventions. Those should be really fun.

That, and I'm looking forward to the whining after the nomination is settled.

One hashtag bro: #CruzSexScandal
I'm just hoping we don't end-up with a Kenneth Star-style inquisition that results in everyone knowing what Cruz's caucus looks lile. *ick*
 

NeoXChaos

Member
There's the Veepstakes, and then conventions. Those should be really fun.

That, and I'm looking forward to the whining after the nomination is settled.


I'm just hoping we don't end-up with a Kenneth Star-style inquisition that results in everyone knowing what Cruz's caucus looks lile. *ick*

Veepstakes will only last us six weeks of fun and the conventions 8 days. After that we got nothing but Olympics until September.
 

Gotchaye

Member
I think it's just more of Trump revealing that, on the social issues tied to religion, he's completely disconnected from the GOP base. He's clearly not religious or from a religious family -- he's got New York values, after all. He knows he's supposed to be pro-life if he's campaigning for the GOP nomination but I suspect his actual position is basically "what?"

It definitely speaks to how little effort Trump has actually made to identify what positions he is supposed to be holding or what there is to say about them. Again, I don't think Trump is any sort of skilled politician or master planner. I think he's just saying honestly what he thinks, which is that America used to be better and colored people should know their damn place. Just turns out to be exactly what the GOP base wants!

Yeah I don't mean to be saying that he's secretly very pro-choice. I just think his awareness of abortion as an issue has mostly filtered through people who are at least somewhat pro-choice. Right there on stage he's trying to work out what it is that he's supposed to say and so he reaches for back-alley abortions because "this is what pro-lifers want, right?" Likewise the punishing women bit. Very Kang and Kodos.
 

johnsmith

remember me
Veepstakes will only last us six weeks of fun and the conventions 8 days. After that we got nothing but Olympics until September.
Women's beach volleyball will tide me over nicely.

But seriously once we're in GE mode there'll be plenty of fuckery on a daily basis to keep us busy. Just wait until Trump makes his visit to our foreign allies. Will make Romney's London trip seem like a smashing success.
 

Bowdz

Member
So what are everyone's current predictions for who the GOP nominee will end up being?

I'm having an increasingly hard time seeing Trump getting the nomination at this point.
 

Maledict

Member
So what are everyone's current predictions for who the GOP nominee will end up being?

I'm having an increasingly hard time seeing Trump getting the nomination at this point.

Cruz with Kasich as Vp. Together they will have some form of excuse (more votes than Trump or more Delegates combined), and that's how they will sell it. Kasich brings Ohio for the republicans, and can be used as a moderate cover for Cruz. If they don't win, it gives them a moderate in a position to compete in 2020.

If Rubio, Bush and all the others who won delegates before dropping out move to back Cruz how close does that bring him to Trump?
 

Holmes

Member
Seems like Trump is on track to get more delegates in North Dakota than anyone expected. It will most likely still be majority Cruz, but everyone thought maybe 1 or 2 delegates for Trump, he might get more than 5 at this point. Everything helps.
 

Bowdz

Member
Seems like Trump is on track to get more delegates in North Dakota than anyone expected. It will most likely still be majority Cruz, but everyone thought maybe 1 or 2 delegates for Trump, he might get more than 5 at this point. Everything helps.

That's great to hear. Here's where Trump's whole message about hiring great people gets put to the test. His recent delegate allocation hires seem to be paying off.


Cruz with Kasich as Vp. Together they will have some form of excuse (more votes than Trump or more Delegates combined), and that's how they will sell it. Kasich brings Ohio for the republicans, and can be used as a moderate cover for Cruz. If they don't win, it gives them a moderate in a position to compete in 2020.

If Rubio, Bush and all the others who won delegates before dropping out move to back Cruz how close does that bring him to Trump?

I have hard time seeing Kasich being a good VP pick. Yes, he can probably deliver OH, but he is not an attack dog and has logged pretty subpar debate performances thus far. Besides, if he has any ambitions of running again in 2020, getting ties to Cruz's far right policies is probably not the best idea.
 
I think Trump failing, barely, to get enough delegates to seal the nomination outright is the best outcome. If he's sitting at 1,200 going into the convention that will probably allow for maximum shenanigans.
 

Bowdz

Member
I think Trump failing, barely, to get enough delegates to seal the nomination outright is the best outcome. If he's sitting at 1,200 going into the convention that will probably allow for maximum shenanigans.

We need a 'Shenanigans intensify' gif ready for the convention.
 

Maledict

Member
VPs can run outside of the shadow of their running mate - Edwards did it in 2008. I don't think people expect the VP nominee to just re-run the previous campaign.

And in terms of delegate math, if Kasich can deliver Ohio then he is, by far and away, the sanest pick. The Republicans simply cannot win without Ohio - they don't have the democrat luxury of being able to win via a number of different states. They have to follow the Bush plan, and that lies through Ohio. If they don't win Ohio then nothing else matters, so if Kasich can deliver Ohio then he's definitely the most sane pick.
 
VPs can run outside of the shadow of their running mate - Edwards did it in 2008. I don't think people expect the VP nominee to just re-run the previous campaign.

And in terms of delegate math, if Kasich can deliver Ohio then he is, by far and away, the sanest pick. The Republicans simply cannot win without Ohio - they don't have the democrat luxury of being able to win via a number of different states. They have to follow the Bush plan, and that lies through Ohio. If they don't win Ohio then nothing else matters, so if Kasich can deliver Ohio then he's definitely the most sane pick.
And yet the only state Kasich has carried in the primary was Ohio - Cruz is overwhelmingly the anti-Trump in this primary. If they go with Kasich they are deliberately saying fuck you to like 80% of the primary voters.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think Trump failing, barely, to get enough delegates to seal the nomination outright is the best outcome. If he's sitting at 1,200 going into the convention that will probably allow for maximum shenanigans.

Yep. The closer he gets without crossing the threshold, the more insane the GOP is going to look when they completely ignore the will of the voters and hand the nomination to Ted Cruz.
 
Yep. The closer he gets without crossing the threshold, the more insane the GOP is going to look when they completely ignore the will of the voters and hand the nomination to Ted Cruz.
I still can't believe their anti-Trump is... Cruz. That would be like the Democrats screwing over Michael Moore to give the nom to Dennis Kucinich.
 
Probably linked earlier, but the article deserves a second look:

Electoral Map Is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid

I introduce you to the "Not Trump, not now, not ever" contingent:

Mr. Trump has become unacceptable, perhaps irreversibly so, to broad swaths of Americans, including large majorities of women, nonwhites, Hispanics, voters under 30 and those with college degrees — the voters who powered President Obama’s two victories and represent the country’s demographic future. All view him unfavorably by a 2-to-1 margin, according to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll.

In some states, Mr. Trump has surprised establishment-aligned Republicans with his breadth of support beyond the less-educated men who form his base. Even so, his support in the nominating process, in which some 30 million people may ultimately vote, would be swamped in a general election, when turnout is likely to be four times that.

“We’re talking about somebody who has the passionate devotion of a minority and alternately scares, appalls, angers — or all of the above — a majority of the country,” said Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst. “This isn’t anything but a historic election defeat just waiting to happen.”

Please proceed, etc.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I think Trump failing, barely, to get enough delegates to seal the nomination outright is the best outcome. If he's sitting at 1,200 going into the convention that will probably allow for maximum shenanigans.

Agreed. Though with 1,200, I think he'd get it on the first ballot with the sheer number of unpledged delegates.
 

Not aligning yourself with the Chicago School of Economics doesnt mean you dont understand them. Nothing sick about this "burn". Economics is a subjective science dependant on social context.

And damn, I wish I could still make threads:

Hillary Romney Clinton said:
I feel sorry sometimes for the young people who believe this, they don't do their own research. I'm glad we can now point to reliable, independent analysis to say: No. It is just not true. "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw9H4uDoAnc&feature=youtu.be
 

Holmes

Member
Hillary snatched Melkr's wig and burned it with the tea. Then tore up his receipts so he can't get a refund (only store credit).
 

pigeon

Banned
The age of checking your sources is ended. Welcome to the age of retweeting people at random who say stuff you find entertaining without regards to how stupid they might find you.
 
Also, his candidate wants to have a 45% tariff with China and eliminate the national debt in 8 years.

Supporters of both candidates this primary season have followed a weird trend of tearing down the opposing candidate with republican talking points. Do our ideologies really shift across the aisle just to let perfect be the enemy of good? It seems that way from poligaf. Bernie and Hillary, as many love to point out, voted the same way 93% of the time. Is that remaining 7% really the difference between understanding and not understanding economics? It seems disingenuous to parrot some Trump supporter about Bernie just to make Hillary look better. When democrats are shitting on a candidate's economics because he pushes for universal health care, a $15 min wage and paid family leave I think the party is upside down.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
AMY WALTER:

Here's where Republicans are right now. They get to decide if they wanna have a civil war if Trump wins, or a civil war if Trump loses. There is no winner out of this whole fight. So he can either come into Cleveland with the amount of delegates. I think Wisconsin will tell us whether or not he will be able to get 1,237. He loses Wisconsin by a big amount, I don't think he's going to be able to make that up. Or he'll be very close.

Or we go to Cleveland and we have another civil war where yeah, technically, they could take it away from him. This is how it works. Reince isn't incorrect. The delegates select who the president is. But there are going to be a whole bunch of Republicans very upset about it, even people who didn't vote for Donald Trump, because they see, as you pointed out, is this fair?

Is this fair? And that is going to just split this party apart. And anybody who thinks that Donald Trump is just going to go away if he loses this like, "Oh, well, he's not going to be able to get on a ballot," he's got Twitter and he's got cable TV. And he's going to spend all of his time there.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, David. We've been here, I want to say four weeks ago you were convinced Trump wasn't going to get the nomination. Two weeks ago, you wanted to say you were convinced, but you weren't comfortable saying anything. Where are you today?

DAVID BROOKS:

Morally defeated.

DAVID BROOKS:

I think it's likely to be Trump. I think he's the walking dead. I think he'll get the nomination and he will just go down to a crushing defeat. And will be known for a hundred years from now, people will say, "Who's the biggest loser in American politics?" And it won't be McGovern, it won't be Dukakis, the word Trump. And I hope when he's down there in Hades he's aware of all that.

haha
 
The age of checking your sources is ended. Welcome to the age of retweeting people at random who say stuff you find entertaining without regards to how stupid they might find you.

Seriously. So many image memes are just twisted incorrect data presented as fact. No one bothers to verify any of it.
 
Not aligning yourself with the Chicago School of Economics doesnt mean you dont understand them. Nothing sick about this "burn". Economics is a subjective science dependant on social context.

And damn, I wish I could still make threads:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw9H4uDoAnc&feature=youtu.be

Lol what's your problem with that?

She is being misrepresented and people aren't doing their research. That has been the biggest issue Clinton has faced is that people have bought into every demonization that is out there. Whole sale without a thought. I have seen countless fake and incorrect memes about her or about Sanders polling or about Sanders chance at winning. I've had to debunk several for my friends. People I respect who just pass on these memes like facts.
 
How much did the war in Iraq cost our economy?

Quite a lot. Obviously Hillary's hawkishness is a big difference between the two candidates. I'm addressing, more generally, the sentiment that ideology seems to fall to the side from democrats when it comes to tearing down their less preferred candidate. Saying that Bernie's platform shows an ignorance toward economics is a straight up republican attack line.
 

T'Zariah

Banned
Quite a lot. Obviously Hillary's hawkishness is a big difference between the two candidates. I'm addressing, more generally, the sentiment that ideology seems to fall to the side from democrats when it comes to tearing down their less preferred candidate. Saying that Bernie's platform shows an ignorance toward economics is a straight up republican attack line.

No it's not.

His plan relies on the assumption of a growth rate over 5%. Any student who's passed Econ 101 knows how laughably insane that is.
 

Armaros

Member
Quite a lot. Obviously Hillary's hawkishness is a big difference between the two candidates. I'm addressing, more generally, the sentiment that ideology seems to fall to the side from democrats when it comes to tearing down their less preferred candidate. Saying that Bernie's platform shows an ignorance toward economics is a straight up republican attack line.

He plans to fund free college with a behavior tax. A tax that already failed in Scandinavian counties.

It's problem is twofold, if it's an amazing success here, its revenue should plummet because it discourages the types of trading being taxed.

Second, from all signs show it would be tens of millions short of reaching the funding for free college.
 
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