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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
You can't be a perfect dove and be the POTUS. Foreign policy is incredibly complex and wielding the power that the USA has is an incredible responsibility. Is every decision perfect? No, nor will it ever be.

Can you imagine Sanders sitting across the table with Putin? Xi Jinping? I seriously can't.

Foreign policy will always piss someone off, even if you are a strict isolationist.
 

Armaros

Member
Foreign policy will always piss someone off, even if you are a strict isolationist.

The other stuff Bernie has said about foreign policy worry me, they worry me because of the massive amount of ignorance they represent and he has shown zero inkling to get a crash course on foreign policy.
 

T'Zariah

Banned
The other stuff Bernie has said about foreign policy worry me, they worry me because of the massive amount of ignorance they represent and he has shown zero inclining to get a crash course on foreign policy.

Funny thing is, "no one" can get a crash course on FP.

Just talking about CURRENT FP in nuance, you need to have a firm understanding of political science, history, economics, geography, sociology, military science, anthropology, philosophy, law, technology, and psychology if they are able to craft and enact successful policy.
 
Sanders stans celebrating Nevada kind of grosses me out. I mean, sure, it is not Bernie's fault that Clinton's camp in Nevada is a total mess, but pretending he has retroactively won there is dumb.

And Bernie is taking New York by 5 points.
 

Armaros

Member
Funny thing is, "no one" can get a crash course on FP.

Just talking about CURRENT FP in nuance, you need to have a firm understanding of political science, history, economics, geography, sociology, military science, anthropology, philosophy, law, technology, and psychology if they are able to craft and enact successful policy.

He doesn't even know why it's a bad idea to try to pair up Sunnis and Shiite governments together.

Nuance? HA, we are not even at general common knowledge.
 
Sanders stans celebrating Nevada kind of grosses me out. I mean, sure, it is not Bernie's fault that Clinton's camp in Nevada is a total mess, but pretending he has retroactively won there is dumb.

And Bernie is taking New York by 5 points.
I haven't seen much gloating tbh. I've seen some people happy about it but in a reluctant way. "Yeah I'm happy for the extra delegates but it still feels a little wrong."
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
He doesn't even know why it's a bad idea to try to pair up Sunnis and Shiite governments together.

Nuance? HA, we ar not even at general common knowledge.

That's my number one issue with Sanders, he has virtually no nuance. Since politics is an operation in compromise, nuance is king.

This does not mean you need to compromise on everything; but unless you have a vast majority in government, you will need to least do some compromising to get stuff done. Sometimes getting nothing done is better. Foreign policy is not immune to it, and it's what diplomacy is.

edit: To add to that, I think nuance is more effective and getting someone opposed to your idea to listen, and perhaps convience them.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah but some indies COULD have registered as dems a few weeks ago to vote. So you have to imagine things are relatively OK.
 

GYODX

Member
Foreign policy will always piss someone off, even if you are a strict isolationist.
It's a good thing Bernie isn't.

Less interventionism in the Middle East isn't isolationist policy. As long as we continue to have our vast network of alliances and military bases, which Bernie has made no mention of dismantling, then we're not taking an isolationist stance.

I mean seriously, do people know what actual US isolationism looked like in the early 20th century? It sure as fuck didn't involve being in treaty-bound defense commitments in all corners of the world.

For contrast, far left politicians in Europe propose dismantling NATO altogether.
 
Yeah but some indies COULD have registered as dems a few weeks ago to vote. So you have to imagine things are relatively OK.
Yeah but the poll was taken this past week. Past the deadline. If you know you're registered as a Democrat, why would you say "I'm an independent" when asked?
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I'm not going to post a thread about this after how the last one went but...are we ever going to be able to talk frankly about Charlie Hebdo?

Unless I'm being made a fool of and this too is "satire" and I'm just too dense to get its subtly subversive message
https://charliehebdo.fr/en/edito/how-did-we-end-up-here/

Take this veiled woman. She is an admirable woman. She is courageous and dignified, devoted to her family and her children. Why bother her? She harms no one. Even those women who wear the total, all-encompassing veil do not generally use their clothing to hide bombs (as certain people were claiming when the law to ban the burqa was being discussed). They too will do nothing wrong. So why go on whining about the wearing of the veil and pointing the finger of blame at these women? We should shut up, look elsewhere and move past all the street-insults and rumpus. The role of these women, even if they are unaware of it, does not go beyond this.

The visible part of a very big iceberg.

Take the local baker, who has just bought the nearby bakery and replaced the old, recently-retired guy, he makes good croissants. He's likeable and always has a ready smile for all his customers. He's completely integrated into the neighbourhood already. Neither his long beard nor the little prayer-bruise on his forehead (indicative of his great piety) bother his clientele. They are too busy lapping up his lunchtime sandwiches. Those he sells are fabulous, though from now on there's no more ham nor bacon. Which is no big deal because there are plenty of other options on offer - tuna, chicken and all the trimmings. So, it would be silly to grumble or kick up a fuss in that much-loved boulangerie. We'll get used to it easily enough. As Tariq Ramadan helpfully instructs us, we'll adapt. And thus the baker's role is done.
And yet, none of what is about to happen in the airport or metro of Brussels can really happen without everyone's contribution. Because the incidence of all of it is informed by some version of the same dread or fear. The fear of contradiction or objection. The aversion to causing controversy. The dread of being treated as an Islamophobe or being called racist. Really, a kind of terror. And that thing which is just about to happen when the taxi-ride ends is but a last step in a journey of rising anxiety. It's not easy to get some proper terrorism going without a preceding atmosphere of mute and general apprehension.
The first task of the guilty is to blame the innocent. It's an almost perfect inversion of culpability. From the bakery that forbids you to eat what you like, to the woman who forbids you to admit that you are troubled by her veil, we are submerged in guilt for permitting ourselves such thoughts. And that is where and when fear has started its sapping, undermining work. And the way is marked for all that will follow.

Cause to me this reads as cultural fear mongering, straight up. What's the source of the problem? That people are allowed to run halal bakeries, apparently
 

Kangi

Member
Yeah, New York is definitely somewhere between the C+ polls from Emerson (has had a Clinton slant and polled through landlines) and YouGov (has had a Bernie slant and polled independents for some reason??). I'll echo the 20 point predictions.
 

Bowdz

Member
I'm sure the polls will tighten in NY, but it is important to remember (as others have pointed out) that Sanders needs a minimum 10% win to be on track just to match Clinton in pledged delegates. Besides, if there is any state that will benefit from Clinton's amazing ground game, it will be NY and her campaign absolutely knows they symbolically need to win there. It will put into overdrive to make sure it happens.
 
I mean don't take the just Democrats thing as gospel. There are self-identified independents who are registered Democrats or Republicans so they can vote in the primary.
 
The only age group that thinks there should be more debates is 18-29. LOLOLOL.

CNN is interviewing Charles Barkley about the election because reasons.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It's a good thing Bernie isn't.

Less interventionism in the Middle East isn't isolationist policy. As long as we continue to have our vast network of alliances and military bases, which Bernie has made no mention of dismantling, then we're not taking an isolationist stance.

I mean seriously, do people know what actual US isolationism looked like in the early 20th century? It sure as fuck didn't involve being in treaty-bound defense commitments in all corners of the world.

For contrast, far left politicians in Europe propose dismantling NATO altogether.

It's certainly an option to move away from being an influential international power. But keep in mind it might actually be a tougher sell than single payer healthcare to the national population.

I still personally sit somewhere in the middle on that spectrum. The US should get involved in agreement with most of the world, and part of it should be financed through war bonds and tax increases. Faux world support like with Iraq is not acceptable.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Since ND is a convention for their delegates, this is a potentially big deal in terms of making up the difference from a loss in Wisconsin:

@Taniel Taniel
Potentially big deal: Trump was expected to be nearly shut out at convention—will state's sole Rep. change that?

Alexandra Jaffe @ajjaffe
NEW: NDGOP Rep. Kevin Cramer is endorsing Trump tomorrow & has been quietly helping him organize delegates in ND.
 

Bowdz

Member
Kasich is hanging in there until the end.

Even though he is the sane option and will certainly be the most lethal in the GE, it boggles my mind that he's so transparent about his method for becoming the nominee. Does the GOP even realize how big a PR shitstorm they'll be in if Kasich, a man who currently has less pledged delegates than Rubio and significantly less votes than Trump and Cruz, ends up jumping over the will of the voters?

Matt Dowd hit the nail on the head on This Week saying that this will be the first contested convention: A) in the era of mass media and the internet and B) in which the party has allowed the public to vote for the nominee. Those two elements will undermine any dark horse nominee that emerges by providing the media and the democrats with the narrative of "GOP usurp the will of the votes/GOP is undemocratic" for weeks after the convention. Ignoring all of the disenfranchised Trump and Cruz voters who will feel betrayed, Kasich would be facing such a terrible GE narrative for much of the fall that it would turn off independent voters in droves. It is a terrible choice.

The GOP are in such a terrible situation right now. Either nominate Trump or Cruz and alienate establishment GOP voters/independents or nominate Kasich/Ryan/Romney and alienate core conservative voters. They need both to come out in droves to win and can't afford any defections. Whatever they do, a large segment of the party will be unhappy.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I mean don't take the just Democrats thing as gospel. There are self-identified independents who are registered Democrats or Republicans so they can vote in the primary.

That's what I'm saying. Independents who registered as Dems two weeks ago probably won't call themselves Dems; however, there could be too many of them in a closed primary poll.
 

ampere

Member
He is opposed to the nsa eroding our constitutional right to privacy and would shut it down, while Hillary's stance is fuck your privacy, we need to spy on all american citizens and trample the rights bestowed upon them by the founders to keep them safe, despite the fact that the nsa has been unable to point to a single instance where they managed to prevent a terrorist act. How's that?

Obama's stance on the NSA is one I've been disappointed with, so I share your concerns here. I'm not sure Bernie could shut it down though, given the party's stance lines up with Obama's.

Not sure if we can prove that NSA intelligence has or hasn't played a part in preventing terrorism.

I would guess their appointments to cabinet and regulatory positions would be quite different, which can have a pretty big impact on enforcement of current laws and regulations.

Also, more important for me is what Bernie wouldn't do that Clinton would. I am worried that Hillary would be more likely to pass major entitlement cuts or other right wing legislation to compromise with republicans in ways I don't want. The big thing is foreign policy though. Everything I've read about her, including that recent Atlantic piece on the Obama doctrine, makes her seem a lot more hawkish than Obama. I don't think Bernie is as knowledgeable on the topic, but I do think his ideals seem to line up more with Obama's here.

I think Bernie is much more isolationist than Obama (he wants to kill free trade agreements!), and considering that Clinton served under Obama's administration as Secretary of State, I'd say she literally is his foreign policy (for half his administration). I don't think she'll pass any cuts we wouldn't have seen from Obama, and hopefully we retake the Senate majority so there won't be as much pressure to appeal to the Republicans.

I'm not going to post a thread about this after how the last one went but...are we ever going to be able to talk frankly about Charlie Hebdo?

Unless I'm being made a fool of and this too is "satire" and I'm just too dense to get its subtly subversive message
https://charliehebdo.fr/en/edito/how-did-we-end-up-here/

Cause to me this reads as cultural fear mongering, straight up. What's the source of the problem? That people are allowed to run halal bakeries, apparently

I don't think you're missing anything, I think they just typically print total bigoted garbage.
 

johnsmith

remember me
This is the most "How Do You Do, Fellow Kids?" thing ever

Ohio Gov. John Kasich sees the prospect of a contested Republican National Convention as "so cool"

"It's going to be so much fun," Kasich said Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

"Kids will spend less time focusing on [Justin] Bieber and [Kim] Kardashian and more time focusing on how we elect presidents," he said. "It'll be so cool."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/john-kasich-republican-convention-221510
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Kasich also mentioned Justin Bieber yesterday. So it's obvious that his handlers told him to say Justin Bieber a lot.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Oh, it'll be "so cool," alright.

It'll be dope.
Fly.
Fresh.
Off the ch-izz-ain.

I'm sure Democrats everywhere agree. Popcorn for some, riot gear for others! =)
 
early but bored.

Democrats
Wisconsin-Hillary

That's

i-cant-find-bold-detergent-in-canada-anymore-21512198.jpg
 

Wilsongt

Member
Donald Trump talked about his relationship with the Republican party on Face the Nation this morning and complained that “I’m the one being discriminated against.”

He was talking about how he and everyone else had to sign the RNC pledge, but really it was him they were worried about. Trump made it clear to CBS’ John Dickerson, however, that he wants to support the GOP no matter what happens.

Lindsay-Lohan-Spits-Out-Drink.gif
 

Gotchaye

Member
Something I didn't see discussed about Trump's abortion fumbling is that when he started talking about what banning abortion would look like he went straight to talking about a pre-Roe state where there were still abortions but they were just done illegally (and unsafely). This is really weird! Obviously Trump's not the most sincere pro-lifer but this comes across as him having no idea how pro-lifers think. He's substituting a pro-choice caricature of pro-life ideology - "they want to go back to back-alley abortions!" - for the ideology itself. This is not how any pro-lifer would describe what they're trying to accomplish.
 
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