Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I wish we were so lucky
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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I wish we were so lucky
I'm thinking a sub 40% vote share for the republicans in the GE may be even possible depending on how donald conducts his GE campaign and if he scares enough people into voting for Hilary.Something like 56%-60% for the dems to like 35%-40% for the republicans with the rest going to third parties.
I can't blame you for saying this. He's a goddamn cartoon character and caricature.
RastaMentality
Banned
I wonder what happens to this thread if the GE polling gap widens in August.
what if the GE polling tightens. This thread will go ballistic.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, that piece infuriates me. If the media wasn't so worried about looking biased, they'd be putting a lot more conservative thinkers' feet to the flame and make them say," We are responsible for this, and the majority of the voters of our party want this." Full stop.
Trump's supporters aren't some random group that all just now signed onto the GOP race. They've been there all along, since the Southern Strategy. You promised them the moon in 2010, didn't deliver (because it's stupid, Jimmy Stewart), and now they're taking your party by force. Those 3 tents? They're not of equal size at all. There was that great piece (I can't find) about the death of neo-conservatism, largely because it was only championed by the academic right-wing think tanks and not real people on the ground. The "business Republicans" or the "establishment" wing are minorities in that group. The people that are fiscally lax but socially liberal left years ago. The people who're left are just socially conservative, and they're not interested in anyone like Kasich, Jeb, or Rubio. George Will's problem is that he's in one of those think-tank bubbles.
"Real" conservatives (whatever that means) isn't Kasich's camp. It's Trump and Cruz.
The only way MS flips is with low turnout on the right. There aren't swing voters here, but the Delta is a super reliable voting bloc for the Dems. If turnout goes down here by enough, then it could flip. If I were Hillary, I'd spend some money here. Push a little in some red states, put out feelers for younger folks who could form a good coalition in a few years, really get the ball rolling towards the dream, which is a future U.S. where no state in the Union is impossible to flip blue (while locking tons of them from ever flipping red).
I don't think it will tighten by much if it tightens.The GE polling may even become more favorable for Hilary throughout the GE campaign.
gutter_trash
Banned
this would be funny if only Ted Cruz's voice was not so despicable.
I can't stomach him when he gets into preacher mode
eBay Huckster
Member
for starters, my avatar will be that one picture of mario chalmers with a giant awkward grin (from when the heat went to the white house after 2013) for the entirety of september if it does widen (beyond, like, 11%)
if it stays that wide through september, that picture's staying thru december 31
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, one weakness of Trump's that showed up to me this season is that he tires out too quickly. That attitude of his is what got him the support he has, but he didn't bring that nearly as much in the later debates. Maybe he was trying to be presidential, but I think he was just worried about coming off like a broken record, repeating insults. Christie torpedoed Rubio for him instead, he got way too much out of his Jeb punching bag, and then people like Rubio made their own errors by using his strategy against him.
Against Hillary, I think for the 3rd debate, she'll have a prepared attack line going in, and he'll be repeating lines and getting flustered.
hammysaurusrex
Member
Perhaps I'm too cynical, but I do worry that people are severely underestimating how many people in American are perfectly fine being openly racist and nationalistic, if only they had an instrument pushing them to do so unabashedly from the top-down.
I want to be wrong, of course.
I could see the margin tighten from upper single-digits to middle single-digits, especially as more right-leaning voters have it hammered home on what a Hillary Presidency would mean for many of their causes (while many purists on the left remain skeptical of her intentions because of "Reasons"). We'd have NeverTrump voters turning into FineTrump-ButOnlyToStopHillary voters.
That said, I don't see him closing the gap. He's too poisonous among non-Republicans.
That said, I don't see him closing the gap. He's too poisonous among non-Republicans.
Yeah. There's no correlation between general election debate performance and polling changes. Everyone tuning in is just rooting for their guy.
Macho Madness
Member
Benchmark's numbers are interesting. Delaware county in 2008 went 53-47 for Hillary, and he has it basically going the exact opposite way this time.
Drilled it down to my exact voting precinct, and it went 71-29 Hillary. Nuts.
Delaware county also was one of the few counties in IN to stay blue from 2008-2012, though it was much closer this time. (Though it went hugely for Donnelly)
Drilled it down to my exact voting precinct, and it went 71-29 Hillary. Nuts.
Delaware county also was one of the few counties in IN to stay blue from 2008-2012, though it was much closer this time. (Though it went hugely for Donnelly)
NYCmetsfan
Banned
From Twitter (not my pic)
Hillary don't give no shits about the press
Hillary don't give no shits about the press
Macho Madness
Member
oh my god!!!
This guy is running for the Democratic nomination for the House in my district: http://www.georgehollandforcongress.com/
AHHHHH
http://www.georgehollandforcongress.com/HillaryQueenofChaos.html
This guy is running for the Democratic nomination for the House in my district: http://www.georgehollandforcongress.com/
AHHHHH
http://www.georgehollandforcongress.com/HillaryQueenofChaos.html
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Hillary's essentially got Obama's coalition from last time (+ united minority support - young people), while Bernie has hers (old white people.)
DGAF Obama might have nothing on DGAF Hillary, if she gets a second term.
I legitimately find someone swearing to be something that builds my trust in them. I mean, how can you live in a world where Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee and not say something like "Dumb motherfucker" every now and then?
Hillary still has old whites. She lost young whites and middle aged white males.
You're correct to do so, it's a sign of honesty/openness w/ someone, sort of similar to the (intentional) signal provided by social drinking.
Ah, ok, was oversimplifying cause I didn't know the exact demos. Just knew that if white people were deciding the election, we'd get Trump v Sanders (and it'd be time to look into the frozen land of Canadia.)
The birdie might be on its last legs, but that doesn't mean it won't peck your eyes out with its last breath 
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My analysis of the New York Primary results for 2016 and 2008, using programmatically (using JavaScript in Chrome) extracted county data (eln_races[1].counties and NY0.map, respectively), as I couldn't find tabulated country results, only the interactive maps.
I've underlined some counties of interest, such as the Bronx, Brooklyn and Manhattan, which have rather too neat percentages, but pay particular attention to Brooklyn (Kings County), Bernie's birthplace and home for eighteen years.
You'll note that in 08, despite Obama losing by large margins just about everywhere else, he put up a good fight in Brooklyn, and managed a virtual tie. So how the frag does Bernie end up with a 40.0 / 60.0 loss, when on average he wins counties by a five point margin???
I'm sure the 100k voter purge in just Brooklyn alone, had something to do with this, but given those exact .0 percentages, I suspect they saw this wasn't going to be sufficient, to win the day, and simply overrode the voter totals for these counties...
And, we've all heard the stories about how in-secure these voting machines are, well you can hear testimony from a what sounds like a highly credible fellow computer programmer, who previously worked for NASA and Exxon Mobil, on how he was asked to write a program to alter the vote totals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nafAbO5qRrU
.My analysis of the New York Primary results for 2016 and 2008, using programmatically (using JavaScript in Chrome) extracted county data (eln_races[1].counties and NY0.map, respectively), as I couldn't find tabulated country results, only the interactive maps.
I've underlined some counties of interest, such as the Bronx, Brooklyn and Manhattan, which have rather too neat percentages, but pay particular attention to Brooklyn (Kings County), Bernie's birthplace and home for eighteen years.
You'll note that in 08, despite Obama losing by large margins just about everywhere else, he put up a good fight in Brooklyn, and managed a virtual tie. So how the frag does Bernie end up with a 40.0 / 60.0 loss, when on average he wins counties by a five point margin???
I'm sure the 100k voter purge in just Brooklyn alone, had something to do with this, but given those exact .0 percentages, I suspect they saw this wasn't going to be sufficient, to win the day, and simply overrode the voter totals for these counties...
Code:
New York State Primary
----------------------
Sanders Clinton Obama A.K.A.
------- ------- ----- ------
2016 2008
---- ----
Albany 52.5 (20422) 47.5 (18450) 59.5 (23624) 37.3 (14814)
Allegany 59.5 (1119) 40.5 (762) 62.8 (1422) 31.8 (720)
[u]Bronx 30.0 (41114) 70.0 (95772) 61.2 (90980) 37.8 (56140)[/u]
Broome 56.6 (9176) 43.4 (7035) 62.3 (10495) 34.0 (5741)
Cattaraugus 57.9 (2367) 42.1 (1718) 68.7 (3485) 26.8 (1358)
Cayuga 52.7 (2654) 47.3 (2383) 70.7 (4525) 25.5 (1635)
Chautauqua 54.0 (4081) 46.0 (3483) 66.5 (6597) 28.7 (2847)
Chemung 50.4 (2564) 49.6 (2520) 66.6 (4122) 29.5 (1828)
Chenango 60.9 (1494) 39.1 (958) 62.8 (1705) 32.8 (891)
Clinton 73.5 (4301) 26.5 (1550) 68.2 (3347) 28.3 (1388)
Columbia 57.1 (3302) 42.9 (2481) 52.5 (2889) 44.1 (2431)
Cortland 57.3 (1878) 42.7 (1402) 66.7 (2344) 30.1 (1058)
Delaware 60.9 (1663) 39.1 (1067) 60.1 (1716) 35.5 (1014)
Dutchess 51.5 (11680) 48.5 (11005) 50.9 (10835) 46.3 (9849)
Erie 49.6 (49387) 50.4 (50199) 59.9 (64582) 36.5 (39370)
Essex 73.2 (1932) 26.8 (708) 56.5 (1307) 39.9 (924)
Franklin 70.9 (2338) 29.1 (961) 70.2 (2331) 26.8 (891)
Fulton 61.1 (1385) 38.9 (881) 73.0 (1889) 22.4 (579)
Genesee 54.9 (1539) 45.1 (1262) 71.5 (2107) 25.1 (740)
Greene 57.9 (1458) 42.1 (1062) 59.3 (1444) 36.5 (888)
Hamilton 63.1 (210) 36.9 (123) 58.2 (221) 34.5 (131)
Herkimer 56.0 (1755) 44.0 (1377) 69.5 (2512) 25.4 (917)
Jefferson 50.9 (2466) 49.1 (2379) 74.1 (3828) 22.7 (1172)
[u][b]Kings 40.0 (116327) 60.0 (174236) 49.4 (137301) 49.0 (136079)[/b][/u] Brooklyn
Lewis 59.1 (648) 40.9 (449) 70.1 (852) 26.8 (325)
Livingston 59.9 (2410) 40.1 (1611) 61.1 (2444) 35.3 (1412)
Madison 55.5 (2346) 44.5 (1880) 64.4 (2659) 32.3 (1331)
Monroe 48.2 (34717) 51.8 (37309) 52.7 (34782) 44.7 (29511)
Montgomery 57.9 (1630) 42.1 (1185) 73.1 (2522) 22.4 (775)
Nassau 37.4 (42301) 62.6 (70947) 62.5 (69719) 34.7 (38694)
[u]New York 33.7 (90227) 66.3 (177496) 53.7 (155675) 44.9 (130208)[/u] Manhattan
Niagara 53.7 (8916) 46.3 (7694) 67.2 (13530) 29.1 (5862)
Oneida 54.6 (7272) 45.4 (6054) 65.9 (10039) 29.1 (4436)
Onondaga 47.0 (18057) 53.0 (20397) 61.6 (23912) 35.9 (13931)
Ontario 53.8 (3361) 46.2 (2884) 64.3 (4786) 33.2 (2469)
Orange 48.5 (11536) 51.5 (12239) 57.0 (13505) 40.1 (9502)
Orleans 57.4 (877) 42.6 (650) 71.0 (1236) 24.5 (427)
Oswego 55.8 (3066) 44.2 (2424) 72.5 (4344) 24.4 (1464)
Otsego 59.1 (2623) 40.9 (1817) 56.9 (2418) 38.8 (1651)
Putnam 50.7 (3573) 49.3 (3477) 56.0 (3758) 40.5 (2723)
Queens 38.4 (76305) 61.6 (122386) 60.0 (125166) 38.6 (80523)
Rensselaer 58.4 (6649) 41.6 (4738) 62.2 (6081) 34.7 (3395)
Richmond 47.1 (14340) 52.9 (16127) 61.2 (18827) 35.5 (10929) Stanton Island
Rockland 39.5 (11072) 60.5 (16966) 57.5 (17907) 39.1 (12166)
Saint Lawrence 58.9 (4102) 41.1 (2865) 72.9 (5327) 24.0 (1754)
Saratoga 55.8 (9112) 44.2 (7206) 61.6 (8434) 35.5 (4860)
Schenectady 52.8 (6862) 47.2 (6146) 63.9 (8177) 32.7 (4185)
Schoharie 63.6 (1088) 36.4 (622) 64.8 (1157) 30.4 (543)
Schuyler 62.5 (818) 37.5 (491) 61.1 (761) 34.7 (432)
Seneca 52.8 (1164) 47.2 (1042) 71.7 (1843) 25.3 (651)
Steuben 57.9 (2709) 42.1 (1970) 65.5 (3172) 30.6 (1482)
Suffolk 45.3 (41363) 54.7 (49926) 62.1 (55564) 35.3 (31563)
Sullivan 56.1 (2671) 43.9 (2088) 59.8 (3109) 36.6 (1901)
Tioga 59.7 (1825) 40.3 (1232) 63.0 (2079) 32.3 (1067)
Tompkins 62.3 (9298) 37.7 (5625) 39.5 (5004) 57.5 (7283)
Ulster 62.6 (11572) 37.4 (6927) 49.9 (8044) 46.7 (7525)
Warren 61.7 (2637) 38.3 (1639) 63.3 (2374) 33.0 (1239)
Washington 64.1 (2087) 35.9 (1167) 64.1 (1964) 32.5 (994)
Wayne 55.5 (2319) 44.5 (1859) 67.1 (2973) 29.9 (1327)
Westchester 32.6 (33726) 67.4 (69628) 52.4 (56532) 44.7 (48225)
Wyoming 60.5 (909) 39.5 (594) 69.7 (1189) 25.7 (439)
Yates 54.8 (669) 45.2 (552) 70.0 (1032) 27.1 (400)
Avg. (Total) [b]54.6[/b] (763469) 45.4 (1054083) 66.4 (1068505) 33.6 (751009)And, we've all heard the stories about how in-secure these voting machines are, well you can hear testimony from a what sounds like a highly credible fellow computer programmer, who previously worked for NASA and Exxon Mobil, on how he was asked to write a program to alter the vote totals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nafAbO5qRrU
nature boy
Member
I still don't understand what path Trump has to 270.
New York? Ha.
Michigan? Nope.
Florida? Not with the +80% unfavourable with latinos.
California? Only in Halperin's head.
And having to defend Georgia and NC.
Am I missing something?
New York? Ha.
Michigan? Nope.
Florida? Not with the +80% unfavourable with latinos.
California? Only in Halperin's head.
And having to defend Georgia and NC.
Am I missing something?
Well, he could run again in 2020, and if he adds his EVs from both elections he just might squeak past 270.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Nope, it's going to take something outside the control of the candidates to change things. Kinda the standard "Well, anything can happen!" mantra.
Abinash117
Member
He is probably going to try to get white working class people, probably some from Democrats. I can also she him try to make his case with to some minority groups, but I would imagine him falling on his face with that.
hammysaurusrex
Member
Daniel B·;202315457 said:
So areas Hillary won in 2008, she's now suspect of winning in 2016 because a number in the tenth position happens to land on 0?
Is this really how low Bernie math has sunk?
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Also, I have to disagree with brainchild now - looks like we do still get some r/S4P activity here - so I think it's fair game to bring up their posts on occasion
hammysaurusrex
Member
And just look! When Hillary's numbers end in a 0, so do Sander's!
what are the odds!?
different coalitions
Hillary 08 had old+Latino+white men+women
Hillary has AA+old+Latino+women 45+
Bernie has Hillary 08 with men+white working class+ Obama 08 young+ women under 45
Hillary 08 won whites by 14 and Latinos by 30 lost AA's by 60-70 and lost. Looks like Hillary will win whites by 3-5. Latinos by 30? AA's by 60-70 and win.
Hillary 08 had old+Latino+white men+women
Hillary has AA+old+Latino+women 45+
Bernie has Hillary 08 with men+white working class+ Obama 08 young+ women under 45
Hillary 08 won whites by 14 and Latinos by 30 lost AA's by 60-70 and lost. Looks like Hillary will win whites by 3-5. Latinos by 30? AA's by 60-70 and win.
I think this is also why a Trump pivot is impossible - won't stop people from speculating until the day before the election that the "presidential" pivot starts tomorrow, but I think it will be ultimately a colossal failure. His name recognition is too high and his shenanigans too numerous and well-reported.
Sad!
User 85168
Banned
shinra-bansho
Member
He has under 30s and probably white men. He doesn't have the white working class as a group he consistently won or by high margin.
Basically millennials. Old hippies. Some disaffected white working class.
And the middle aged man who says he's not sure a woman should be commander in chief.
Basically millennials. Old hippies. Some disaffected white working class.
And the middle aged man who says he's not sure a woman should be commander in chief.
It's pretty obvious why Sanders lost Brooklyn. Hillary actually does quite well with urban whites, and of course African-Americans and latinos. There are only a small amount of urban centers that Sanders won (in primaries), the biggest one being Austin, I believe. Just because he was born in Brooklyn ages ago doesn't mean he would perform well. Sorry.
eBay Huckster
Member
Welcome to PoliGAF! Good to see new faces.
Sad! Comes from trumps frequent usage of it on Twitter.
A mess a waste comes from the super cut of Trump trolling Jeb! At debates. If you haven't seen it you shou*airhorn* should.
Yellowtail
Member
I mean, her first joke way back at the 1992 WHCD was about Bill's bimbo eruptions.
Macho Madness
Member
Up until the Super Tuesday (penises!) debate, the South Carolina debate was basically a goddamn meltdown of the GOP. Jeb was a mess.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-McIdVuY88
Hilarious
TheLaughingStock
Member
Probably not enough to beat Hillary, but his numbers should improve big time because he had to exploit voters in the primary.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I've seen this video about a thousand times and it never stops being funny
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