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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
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Avon Barksdale
Member
It's gonna be Newt.
Jesus. Lol.
eBay Huckster
Member
i get the feeling this link's supposed to be something else
The GOP gonna be campaigning...
for Hillary Clinton?
This is the biggest plot twist yet.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Newt Leroy Gingrich
Righty winger clone
O'Gringo With Celery
Newly Rich Gringo-et
Grl, I won! Cry, Ginther!
(Gither was his ex-wife whom he cheated on.)
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
That's just a special paragraph.
I wonder what other conservative essentials he is talking about?
I also love how they are STILL ignoring the elephant in the room, which is their "big tent" collapsed. It's now 3 smaller tents held together by people yelling at each other; the nationalists, the religious and the establishment.
I think I got this at Bennigan's once.
This was written by Tay, wasn't it.
Although now I really want to get a t-shirt for my wife that says, "HIS DANGEROUS WIFE" on it. XD
They're trying to fuel flames alright, just from racist white people.
He'd lose every woman in America with that pick!
They got too greedy and held their coalition together with hate, it was never going to last. Even W knew they had to change and if he hadn't been such a fuck up of a president he could have made that happen.
Yay another delegate for Trump!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Gallup poll, favorability ratings:
Among Republicans and Republican leaners:
Kasich: +20
Trump: +20
Cruz: -2
Among Democrats and Democrat leaners:
Hillary: +46
Bernie: +53
http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/p...ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
Among Republicans and Republican leaners:
Kasich: +20
Trump: +20
Cruz: -2
Among Democrats and Democrat leaners:
Hillary: +46
Bernie: +53
http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/p...ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Based on the weekly numbers at the link, it seems Cruz's image has collapsed among Republicans in the last week or so. Has gone from +13 to -2 pretty quickly.
Happened before Fiorina too so maybe it was the alliance stuff?
Happened before Fiorina too so maybe it was the alliance stuff?
balladofwindfishes
Member
I do think it's the alliance. I haven't really seen anyone who particularly liked it, and it basically crashed and burned in 24 hours.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's pretty easy to see that most Republicans are not #NeverTrump people based on these numbers though. Everyone has a view of Trump and 60% of Republicans have a favorable view of him.
60% of the Republican base being fine to passionate about nominating a white nationalist seems to say something, maybe.
Newt's revolution made it not cool to care about the environment:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190916/a...ial Issues&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
60% of the Republican base being fine to passionate about nominating a white nationalist seems to say something, maybe.
Newt's revolution made it not cool to care about the environment:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190916/a...ial Issues&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
Aaron Strife
Banned
Notable that Clinton's favorability is actually just a notch higher than Sanders', just her unfavorability is 8 points higher than his. i.e. more people have simply made up her minds about her.
This really is a GoT episode.
I'm sorry but anyone saying this about the GOP
hasn't been paying attention to the way the party has conducted themselves towards Obama for his entire presidency - or they're delusional. Manners and grace? Something the GOP gives a shit about? Give me a damn break.
Clinton being a known quantity is something that's going to ease people's minds on the conservative side. New things are scary to them.
So, as an aside, are 50-state primaries the new norm for non-incumbent years or is 2008 and 2016 two sides of a short lived coin?
Seems to me that there's so much money flowing, and internet/social media is so prevalent now that campaigns can last much longer. The beginning states are no longer the Grand Filters they once were. And it seems to make sense that Democrats should always have a 50 state strategy since it worked so damn well for Obama.
Seems to me that there's so much money flowing, and internet/social media is so prevalent now that campaigns can last much longer. The beginning states are no longer the Grand Filters they once were. And it seems to make sense that Democrats should always have a 50 state strategy since it worked so damn well for Obama.
Mrs. Manky
Banned
Feh. Any woman willing to run on Trump's ticket as a Vice-Presidential candidate will look the other way whenever he says something sexist, like a young Phyllis Schlafly.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
I mean. You can call it a 50 state primary if you want but it's been essentially over for months on the dem side.
oh sure. but just hanging around being viable in the first place.
So a friend of mine who works in academia supposed that Trump will only get 43% of the vote in the GE. I wanted to see what that looks like on an actual map, so I'm going to run some numbers using elasticity and the 2012 election as a base.
In 2012, Obama won 51.1% of the popular vote, while Romney won 47.2% of the popular vote, a 4.9% difference. Let's assume 1.7-2% of the vote goes to third parties, so if Trump is at 43% of the vote, Hillary would be at 55%.
Hillary Clinton: 55%
Donald Trump: 43%
So what does a 12% difference look like in modern American politics?
Elasticity quotients:
The races in 2012 that were under 10 points were:
Michigan: 54.21/44.71
Maine 2nd: 52.94/44.38
Wisconsin: 52.83/45.89
Minnesota: 52.65/44.96
Nevada: 52.36/45.68
Iowa: 51.99/46.18
New Hampshire: 51.98/46.40
Pennsylvania: 51.97/49.59
Colorado: 51.49/46.13
Virginia: 51.16/47.28
Ohio: 50.67/47.69
Florida: 50.01/49.13
North Carolina: 48.35/50.39
Nebraska 2nd: 45.78/52.95
Georgia: 45.48/53.30
Arizona: 44.59/53.65
Missouri: 44.38/53.76
Now using the quotients here with an 8 point swing, here is what I have:
Michigan: 58.33/40.59
Maine 2nd: 58.02/39.3
Wisconsin: 57.23/41.49
Minnesota: 56.69/40.92
Nevada: 56.68/41.36
Iowa: 56.67/41.50
New Hampshire: 57.10/51.28
Pennsylvania: 55.21/45.87
Colorado: 56.13/41.49
Virginia: 54.96/43.48
Ohio: 54.95/43.41
Florida: 54.21/44.93
North Carolina: 52.03/46.71
Nebraska 2nd: 49.80/48.87
Georgia: 48.88/49.90
Arizona: 49.11/49.13
Missouri: 48.02/49.72
This actually only gives North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd to Hillary, while Arizona is a coin flip. Georgia and Missouri would be VERY close.
EDIT: But if Arizona Hispanic and Latino registration is as strong as it might be and Georgia's demographics, these might actually flip for Hillary. It's just using 2012 as a base.
In 2012, Obama won 51.1% of the popular vote, while Romney won 47.2% of the popular vote, a 4.9% difference. Let's assume 1.7-2% of the vote goes to third parties, so if Trump is at 43% of the vote, Hillary would be at 55%.
Hillary Clinton: 55%
Donald Trump: 43%
So what does a 12% difference look like in modern American politics?
Elasticity quotients:
The races in 2012 that were under 10 points were:
Michigan: 54.21/44.71
Maine 2nd: 52.94/44.38
Wisconsin: 52.83/45.89
Minnesota: 52.65/44.96
Nevada: 52.36/45.68
Iowa: 51.99/46.18
New Hampshire: 51.98/46.40
Pennsylvania: 51.97/49.59
Colorado: 51.49/46.13
Virginia: 51.16/47.28
Ohio: 50.67/47.69
Florida: 50.01/49.13
North Carolina: 48.35/50.39
Nebraska 2nd: 45.78/52.95
Georgia: 45.48/53.30
Arizona: 44.59/53.65
Missouri: 44.38/53.76
Now using the quotients here with an 8 point swing, here is what I have:
Michigan: 58.33/40.59
Maine 2nd: 58.02/39.3
Wisconsin: 57.23/41.49
Minnesota: 56.69/40.92
Nevada: 56.68/41.36
Iowa: 56.67/41.50
New Hampshire: 57.10/51.28
Pennsylvania: 55.21/45.87
Colorado: 56.13/41.49
Virginia: 54.96/43.48
Ohio: 54.95/43.41
Florida: 54.21/44.93
North Carolina: 52.03/46.71
Nebraska 2nd: 49.80/48.87
Georgia: 48.88/49.90
Arizona: 49.11/49.13
Missouri: 48.02/49.72
This actually only gives North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd to Hillary, while Arizona is a coin flip. Georgia and Missouri would be VERY close.
EDIT: But if Arizona Hispanic and Latino registration is as strong as it might be and Georgia's demographics, these might actually flip for Hillary. It's just using 2012 as a base.
The sad thing is Nebraska 2nd could have maybe gone to Obama in '12 but the GOP redistricted it to make it harder.
Aaron Strife
Banned
lol amazing.So a friend of mine who works in academia supposed that Trump will only get 43% of the vote in the GE. I wanted to see what that looks like on an actual map, so I'm going to run some numbers using elasticity and the 2012 election as a base.
In 2012, Obama won 51.1% of the popular vote, while Romney won 47.2% of the popular vote, a 4.9% difference. Let's assume 1.7-2% of the vote goes to third parties, so if Trump is at 43% of the vote, Hillary would be at 55%.
Hillary Clinton: 55%
Donald Trump: 43%
So what does a 12% difference look like in modern American politics?
Elasticity quotients:
The races in 2012 that were under 10 points were:
Michigan: 54.21/44.71
Maine 2nd: 52.94/44.38
Wisconsin: 52.83/45.89
Minnesota: 52.65/44.96
Nevada: 52.36/45.68
Iowa: 51.99/46.18
New Hampshire: 51.98/46.40
Pennsylvania: 51.97/49.59
Colorado: 51.49/46.13
Virginia: 51.16/47.28
Ohio: 50.67/47.69
Florida: 50.01/49.13
North Carolina: 48.35/50.39
Nebraska 2nd: 45.78/52.95
Georgia: 45.48/53.30
Arizona: 44.59/53.65
Missouri: 44.38/53.76
Now using the quotients here with an 8 point swing, here is what I have:
Michigan: 58.33/40.59
Maine 2nd: 58.02/39.3
Wisconsin: 57.23/41.49
Minnesota: 56.69/40.92
Nevada: 56.68/41.36
Iowa: 56.67/41.50
New Hampshire: 57.10/51.28
Pennsylvania: 55.21/45.87
Colorado: 56.13/41.49
Virginia: 54.96/43.48
Ohio: 54.95/43.41
Florida: 54.21/44.93
North Carolina: 52.03/46.71
Nebraska 2nd: 49.80/48.87
Georgia: 48.88/49.90
Arizona: 49.11/49.13
Missouri: 48.02/49.72
This actually only gives North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd to Hillary, while Arizona is a coin flip. Georgia and Missouri would be VERY close.
EDIT: But if Arizona Hispanic and Latino registration is as strong as it might be and Georgia's demographics, these might actually flip for Hillary. It's just using 2012 as a base.
I actually do think AZ, GA and MO would just flip in that case. Could see IN being stubborn.
That MS is the least elastic state is what prevents me from thinking it would go blue anytime soon, even though it has a really high floor for Democrats. There just aren't any swing voters, they're all Republicans.
A 4 points swing nationally would mean, on average, a 2.52 swing in Mississippi.
In this case, Indiana would be:
Indiana: 47.89/50.17
And for fun:
Montana: 46.18/50.87
EDIT: A 4.5 point swing would also not give you Georgia.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Hexa
Member
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Kasich campaign is fucking delusional. They're using fanfiction as ads. lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuib2Vo3hSo&feature=youtu.be
Man, Hillary is going to do a clean sweep isn't she. Biggest electoral difference since Reagan maybe. This'll be glorious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuib2Vo3hSo&feature=youtu.be
Man, Hillary is going to do a clean sweep isn't she. Biggest electoral difference since Reagan maybe. This'll be glorious.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I don't think the question is who Donald Trump picks as his VP. The question is if Trump even gets to pick his own VP. The only way he gets a choice is if the GOP throws it's hands up in surrender. He doesn't have the delegates.
The candidate the establishment didn't think they could anoint.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I'm imagining a situation where they brute force a VP candidate on him and he actually bad mouths his own VP on the campaign trail.
I need this to happen.
lol
The delegates picking Kasich would be the end of the GOP.
Imagine if they pick Jeb?
Orbis Tabula
Member
It's the dream. But it's too good for this planet.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
This would be the single greatest thing ever.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Orbis Tabula
Member
I want to say it would be funny, but we'd just be watching a bully push a kid to the edge of suicide.
Stop it.
Benchmark writeup of Indiana Dems: http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/indiana-county-benchmark-guide-clinton.html
It's pretty easy to see that most Republicans are not #NeverTrump people based on these numbers though. Everyone has a view of Trump and 60% of Republicans have a favorable view of him.
60% of the Republican base being fine to passionate about nominating a white nationalist seems to say something, maybe.
Newt's revolution made it not cool to care about the environment:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190916/a...ial Issues&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
That's disappointing. FUcking Republicans.
Trump/Jeb needs to happen! He'll bully Jeb all the way to election day while Jeb just takes it.
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