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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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The GE polling is probably accurate in the sense that that really is how people are feeling right now about the matchups right now.

However, the projection of consequences of attacks on Bernie in the general is not just unfalsifiable, it's unquantifiable. There is no formula or metric you could use to extrapolate a definitive outcome in November based on the data that we have now, so no, it is not safe to use.

I suppose you could make the argument that in a Hillary vs Trump matchup, the outcome in November is unlikely to divert much from the current data. But GE polling IN GENERAL is definitely not safe to use when there are relatively unknown quantities included. There is no guarantee that Bernie would do much worse in November when his opponent is Donald Trump, regardless of the attacks; their effectiveness is not guaranteed.

Another thing that isn't quantifiable is how the electorate would react to a candidate that clearly won the popular vote and delegate count losing their spot because the party establishment went against them.

It seems like that could hurt things significantly, specifically down ticket.
 

Gotchaye

Member
Yeah, I think the media has generally done a pretty good job with Trump. The problem is the voters. It's totally appropriate for them to cover the frontrunner for a major party's nomination saying something outrageous. It's totally appropriate for them to let the frontrunner for a major party's nomination call in to talk about whatever the topic of the day is. The question here should be why people like Hillary Clinton aren't willing to do big media appearances that aren't very tightly controlled (I know why, but).

Something that's been pretty striking about this primary on both sides is that there are successful candidates who have totally rejected the usual strategy of trying to be perfect. Sanders and Trump are each in their own way cartoons with bad hair. And this renders them gaffe-proof. They can't lose support because they do something that looks bad. Trump has had terrible moments in debates and it doesn't matter. I bet Sanders could get away with wearing a silly hat. Compare to Rick Perry and "oops", John Kerry's wind-surfing or condom suit, or Howard Dean's scream. Even Mitt Romney was I think at least somewhat damaged by his series of humanisms like "the trees are the right height". When you're trying to present yourself as the quintessentially presidential person, you can blow the whole thing up with one mistake. I think it'd be a good thing if other politicians learned from Sanders and Trump that you don't really have to do this. I grant that it's possible that you really do have to do this to win the general election, but I'm not sure the squishy "do they seem presidential?" vote is a big deal anymore.
 
Another thing that isn't quantifiable is how the electorate would react to a candidate that clearly won the popular vote and delegate count losing their spot because the party establishment went against them.

It seems like that could hurt things significantly, specifically down ticket.

Good point.
 
I hate the argument the Bernie argument that Hillary needs superdelegates to win.

Uhhhhh, dumbass, you need them too. And you need much, much more of them.

You could switch Bernie and Hillary's superdelegate support and she'd probably still hit 2383 sooner than he would.
 
3) The probability of a Sanders V Trump matchup is even more uncertain due to uncertainty on how his GE campaign would be carried.

i prefer my phrasing about this matchup, which is "I don't give a shit how a Sanders v. Trump matchup would go, because Sanders didn't win the Democratic primary"
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Sam Wang: It's safe to use GE polling now

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/...eneral-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/

My phone isn't letting my copy the text from the Princeton website but basically there's a 7% chance that Trump overtakes Hillary in aggregate polling by November and a 93% chance he does not.

Dead heat.

EDIT: beaten like Bernie

I only wonder if republican unification is going to still happen but take longer than usual. There's usually some second place straggler wanting to take the primary to the convention preventing full unification pre convention, but trump is an unusually divisive candidate for republicans.
 
The median Trump voter has a household income of about $75K.
Median for GOP primary electorate a whole is ~$80K. For Democrats, about $60K.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/726867065013981184

These are the people struggling in society.

Anyway, if the media was better at doing their jobs, they'd probably point out that Paul Ryan is a joke person that wants to privatize Social Security, block grant Medicare, and eliminate all of the government other than Social Security, Medicare, and Defense instead of fluffing him every three days.
 

Bowdz

Member
political-cartoon.gif

BUT WHAT DOES THE WHITE AROUND HIM REPRESENT? I NEED MORE LABELS.
 

ampere

Member
If it's 'safe' to use GE polling, then super delegates really should be considering Bernie over Hillary.

Of course, that's a huge conditional statement I just made. I don't think that GE polling is safe to use when there are still so many more months of potential things to go wrong for any candidate.

Hillary vs Trump polling is starting to be relevant data

Not Insert Dem vs Insert Republican


This is a truly great one by Drew and Natalie
 
“Momentum matters,” said Jason Roe, a national Republican strategist, summing up the sentiments of those who made their way to Burlingame. “Right now the mainstream media is coronating Trump prematurely, and any turnaround in Indiana changes that narrative and reinvigorates anti-Trump Republicans.”

"Momentum matters."-Says man who has literally not followed this race at any point.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-campaign-nervous-222675

Article is basically how Cruz's camp is realizing he's done.
 
So I am starting to see outright delusion on facebook. Someone saying Bernie is gonna do things I am pretty sure he has never said.

Did Bernie ever say he was going to forgive all college debt?

I have a friend who saids that he will and that otherwise she will have to keep making payments.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So I am starting to see outright delusion on facebook. Someone saying Bernie is gonna do things I am pretty sure he has never said.

Did Bernie ever say he was going to forgive all college debt?

I have a friend who saids that he will and that otherwise she will have to keep making payments.

I'm pretty sure he never said that. People are just projecting their desires onto him.
 

Sibylus

Banned
So I am starting to see outright delusion on facebook. Someone saying Bernie is gonna do things I am pretty sure he has never said.

Did Bernie ever say he was going to forgive all college debt?

I have a friend who saids that he will and that otherwise she will have to keep making payments.
I have a hazy, maybe false memory of him saying it would be a good idea, but I don't think he made it a campaign promise.
 

teiresias

Member
So I am starting to see outright delusion on facebook. Someone saying Bernie is gonna do things I am pretty sure he has never said.

Did Bernie ever say he was going to forgive all college debt?

I have a friend who saids that he will and that otherwise she will have to keep making payments.

It's delusion.
Even if Bernie said it, it's still delusion.
 

jaekeem

Member
So I am starting to see outright delusion on facebook. Someone saying Bernie is gonna do things I am pretty sure he has never said.

Did Bernie ever say he was going to forgive all college debt?

I have a friend who saids that he will and that otherwise she will have to keep making payments.

I don't think people realize that there's no way to outright "remove" college debt.

Even if it's "gone", that just means everyone's taxes go up to pay for it in some way or another.
 
"Momentum matters."-Says man who has literally not followed this race at any point.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-campaign-nervous-222675

Article is basically how Cruz's camp is realizing he's done.

What is this?
And while the Texas senator has closed the gap in Indiana in recent days, he still trails Trump and his decision to tap Carly Fiorina as a running mate has provided only a modest boost in the state, according to sources familiar with the campaign’s internal deliberations.
Indiana as a comeback story for Cruz? Politico making up their own narratives.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Silver is a libertarian and thus is dumb and subscribes to internet edgelord theory of "all attention is good attention!"

It's almost like getting attention just exposes your ideas to voters! It's almost like Ben Carson getting attention for being a fraud that thinks that the pyramids were used to store grain or the media showing Rubio's flushing his image into the toilet weren't helpful even though they got a lot of media attention!

The theory of all attention is good attention is dependant on other variables that get ignored. For example how much existing knowledge the general population has of the subject - The higher this is, the more damage it will do. The lower it is, it may be a net positive. People already knew in general who Donald Trump was. Say you get some unknown candidate saying something vile, that publicity could net him supporters if they agree with it.
 
Are they still #OccupyingCNN? :S
I think this is super interesting/telling.

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE

Bernie Sanders 76% 11%
Hillary Clinton 69% 17%

Q6. (Asked of self-identified Democratic respondents) Which of the following
candidates would you most like to see get the Democratic nomination for president?

Hillary Clinton 54%
Bernie Sanders 39%
Undecided 7%
It's not that interesting. Ben Carson also had super high favourables.

There's probably a relation, but being liked and being viewed as the best potential President aren't really the same thing.

Add to that the female liked-competetent double-bind dilemma.
Sam Wang: It's safe to use GE polling now
Oh. It's okay now is it, establishment conspiracy?
 

hawk2025

Member
On an unrelated note, am I the only constantly getting "Will your College Graduate's job be STOLEN" ads here?


Every other ad is one of those. Do we know who's paying for this?
 

hawk2025

Member
Wait, did TWC or Time Warner donate to the Clinton Campaign?

Edit: I see, it is Time Warner. So money from Sanders ad buys is flowing to Clinton indirectly. Maximum fuckery!
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
In defense of nate silver, he did also tweet this:

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Apr 28
Take: Trump invalidated a lot of beliefs held by centrist elites about the GOP base, but validated beliefs held by liberal elites about it.
 
If I have to read one more word about Trump being anti-war and "for single payer" I'm going to probably write a big long blog post no one will read

BUT I WILL BE ANGRY LET ME TELL YOU
 
I wonder if Cruz got the same press at the start if he wouldn't be doing better.

He's more sexist, racist and anti-choice than Trump and a hell of a lot more homophobic and transphobic as well.

Cruz is Trump beliefs on speed without the charisma.
 
I wonder if Cruz got the same press at the start uf he wouldn't be doung better.

He's more sexist, racist and anti-choice than Trump and a hell of a lot more homophobic and transphobic as well.

Cruz is Trumo beliefs on speed without the charisma.

Seriously. Cruz has Troy Newman as one of his advisers and Cruz LOVES Jesse Helms. It's hard to be more disgusting than that.

Basically, all of the non-Trumps were inflated by the fact that they got no coverage because all of them other than Pataki were horrible people with no connection to reality. Scott Walker got a lot of coverage for his three separate stances on the 14th amendment, but that coverage didn't help him. The media doing its job would have covered that Scott Walker doesn't believe in evolution.
 
Meanwhile in Trumpland.

He's doubling down on the unqualified woman thing.
He stood behind his remarks on Sunday. “I’m my own strategist. I like what I said,” Trump said in interview on “Fox News Sunday.” “The only card she has to play is the woman’s card,” he said of Clinton. “If she were not a woman, she wouldn’t even be in the race.”

Because if there's one thing women really like to hear, it's that the only reason a woman is in a position of authority or recognition is because she's a woman.

Master strategist.
 
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