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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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F

Frank the Great

Banned
I've been playing around on 270towin.com, and I just realized something beautiful. Trump can win OH, PA, NH, IA, and WI . . . and Hillary still wins with VA, FL, CO, and NV. If Trump wins OH and WI, but fails to take PA, Hillary can afford to lose VA, NH, CO, and IA, assuming she takes FL. There's just so many ways for Hillary to win. Thank you minorities. <3

There is one potentially crazy outcome though: if Trump takes OH, WI, IA, and FL . . . it will be a 269-269 tie!
 
F

Fox318

Member
Frank the Great said:
I've been playing around on 270towin.com, and I just realized something beautiful. Trump can win OH, PA, NH, IA, and WI . . . and Hillary still wins with VA, FL, CO, and NV. If Trump wins OH and WI, but fails to take PA, Hillary can afford to lose VA, NH, CO, and IA, assuming she takes FL. There's just so many ways for Hillary to win. Thank you minorities. <3

There is one potentially crazy outcome though: if Trump takes OH, WI, IA, and FL . . . it will be a 269-269 tie!
Click to expand...

c9xtglw.png


CHAOS
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Yellowtail said:
Actually, who cares about Ohio with these numbers coming out of Florida:

Clinton 49
Trump 36

Clinton 48
Trump 39


Trump's favorables among Hispanics: 10/87. "No that's not a typo".

Even better: another poll out of Miami shows that Trump could force a long term political realignment of Cuban voters away from the GOP.
Click to expand...

The Cuban realignment would be huge. They're a lot more conservative than other Hispanic groups, and if they start drifting further to the left (reliably), then FL is a lock for a while.

HylianTom said:
Jennifer Epstein @jeneps


Not bad at all.
Click to expand...

How much did Bernie raise in April? I thought it was way down.
 
J

j_k_redtail

Member
Those of you who have been missing Andrew Sullivan this year should check out his article in NYMag today. The basic thesis is similar to that of Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, which is to say that our political system and media environment have become "democratic" to a fault - to the point where a demagogue can seize power.

I'm only going to quote the last bit - it touches on too many points to find excerpts. You should really read the whole thing:

America has never been so ripe for tyranny
...Those Democrats who are gleefully predicting a Clinton landslide in November need to both check their complacency and understand that the Trump question really isn&#8217;t a cause for partisan Schadenfreude anymore. It&#8217;s much more dangerous than that. Those still backing the demagogue of the left, Bernie Sanders, might want to reflect that their critique of Clinton&#8217;s experience and expertise &#8212; and their facile conflation of that with corruption &#8212; is only playing into Trump&#8217;s hands. That it will fall to Clinton to temper her party&#8217;s ambitions will be uncomfortable to watch, since her willingness to compromise and equivocate is precisely what many Americans find so distrustful. And yet she may soon be all we have left to counter the threat. She needs to grasp the lethality of her foe, moderate the kind of identity politics that unwittingly empowers him, make an unapologetic case that experience and moderation are not vices, address much more directly the anxieties of the white working class&#8212;and Democrats must listen.

More to the point, those Republicans desperately trying to use the long-standing rules of their own nominating process to thwart this monster deserve our passionate support, not our disdain. This is not the moment to remind them that they partly brought this on themselves. This is a moment to offer solidarity, especially as the odds are increasingly stacked against them. Ted Cruz and John Kasich face their decisive battle in Indiana on May 3. But they need to fight on, with any tactic at hand, all the way to the bitter end. The Republican delegates who are trying to protect their party from the whims of an outsider demagogue are, at this moment, doing what they ought to be doing to prevent civil and racial unrest, an international conflict, and a constitutional crisis. These GOP elites have every right to deploy whatever rules or procedural roadblocks they can muster, and they should refuse to be intimidated.

And if they fail in Indiana or Cleveland, as they likely will, they need, quite simply, to disown their party&#8217;s candidate. They should resist any temptation to loyally back the nominee or to sit this election out. They must take the fight to Trump at every opportunity, unite with Democrats and Independents against him, and be prepared to sacrifice one election in order to save their party and their country.

For Trump is not just a wacky politician of the far right, or a riveting television spectacle, or a Twitter phenom and bizarre working-class hero. He is not just another candidate to be parsed and analyzed by TV pundits in the same breath as all the others. In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event. It&#8217;s long past time we started treating him as such.
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
The national media, in an attempt to make Clinton vs Trump look competitive, will latch-on to Rasmussen's polling for the rest of the cycle.

(I'm kidding. I think.)
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
15% for another candidate is extremely high. Especially with only 5% undecided.

Wonder who these mysterious other candidates are.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
Can we please stop using the term "alt-right"? They're white supremacists, that's it. Don't give them some official-sounding name to rally behind.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Even an "unskewed" poll isn't even showing that impressive of a lead for Trump.

Wasn't some of the Romney ones showing him up 8% or something stupid like that? I think I remember that.
 
D

dramatis

Member
I was listening to a few recent episodes of NPR's politics podcast and they did mention that Reagan also ran in a primary where he picked a vp and lost, and then came back next time and won.

Maybe Cruz really thinks he's the second coming of Reagan and is no longer considering 2016, but rather thinking about 2020? And hoping Hillary is a Jimmy Carter, I guess.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
November is going to be brutal for the GOP.
Click to expand...

Damn, that is some glorious tire-burning if I've ever seen it. This election should put the idea to bed once and for all that whites are the only group worth catering to. You cannot win a national election when your party amounts to this. When your party is deciding between 3 terrible choices for minorities. You can't do it.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
dramatis said:
I was listening to a few recent episodes of NPR's politics podcast and they did mention that Reagan also ran in a primary where he picked a vp and lost, and then came back next time and won.

Maybe Cruz really thinks he's the second coming of Reagan and is no longer considering 2016, but rather thinking about 2020? And hoping Hillary is a Jimmy Carter, I guess.
Click to expand...

Difference was Reagan had an outside shot at winning the nomination in 1976 and picked his VP at the convention. He also was running against an incumbent president with the party's support.
 
T

TheChocoboCadet

Banned
PBY said:
As I was complaining, new poll drops:
2016 Indiana Republican Presidential Primary - Drumpf 44%, Cruz 27% (Gravis Marketing 4/28-4/29)

2016 Indiana Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 379 Republican likely voters
Donald Drumpf (R) 44%
Ted Cruz (R) 27%
Undecided 19%
John Kasich (R) 9%


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...420?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Click to expand...

It appears the Cruz/Kasich alliance is doing exactly as intended, as all the Kasich voters are strategically moving their vote to "Undecided"
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
George Takei made a video appealing to Bernie or Bust (and presumably to Hillary or Bust) people that was very reasonable in tone, and got a lot of vitriol for it.

This itself isn't really news, but I wonder-- is there a correlation with how much of an internet asshat you are with how stubbornly you hold onto a position like "Bernie or Bust?" That is, does the vitriol seem higher only because the people likely to hold it are also the most likely to be extreme in their reaction? Is there an amping-up effect as people who were pro-Bernie but not full of hate for Hillary accept that she's getting the nom?
 
B

Bowdz

Member
dramatis said:
I was listening to a few recent episodes of NPR's politics podcast and they did mention that Reagan also ran in a primary where he picked a vp and lost, and then came back next time and won.

Maybe Cruz really thinks he's the second coming of Reagan and is no longer considering 2016, but rather thinking about 2020? And hoping Hillary is a Jimmy Carter, I guess.
Click to expand...

Honestly, provided RBG and Breyer aren't stupid, 2020 won't matter as much considering Hilldawg will have replaced Scalia, RBG, and Breyer.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
George Takei made a video appealing to Bernie or Bust (and presumably to Hillary or Bust) people that was very reasonable in tone, and got a lot of vitriol for it.

This itself isn't really news, but I wonder-- is there a correlation with how much of an internet asshat you are with how stubbornly you hold onto a position like "Bernie or Bust?" That is, does the vitriol seem higher only because the people likely to hold it are also the most likely to be extreme in their reaction? Is there an amping-up effect as people who were pro-Bernie but not full of hate for Hillary accept that she's getting the nom?
Click to expand...

It's the old cult mentality: the more people leave the group, the more insane the remaining members are on average. In this case, most reasonable Bernie supporters still support him but have accepted that Hillary is going to win and are willing (although not necessarily happy) to vote for her. As more and more of his reasonable supporters accept this, so increasingly the only ones left will be the more vitriolic and extreme ones.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
j_k_redtail said:
Those of you who have been missing Andrew Sullivan this year should check out his article in NYMag today. The basic thesis is similar to that of Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, which is to say that our political system and media environment have become "democratic" to a fault - to the point where a demagogue can seize power.

I'm only going to quote the last bit - it touches on too many points to find excerpts. You should really read the whole thing:

America has never been so ripe for tyranny
Click to expand...

Well, it seems terrible based on the excepts.

-Ted Cruz is worse than Trump so why should I support the GOPe trying to screw Trump to give the nomination to Cruz? Cruz is a psychopath.

-"Identity politics" do not empower Trump. The fact that white people in America are super fucking racist is what powers Trump.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
j_k_redtail said:
Those of you who have been missing Andrew Sullivan this year should check out his article in NYMag today. The basic thesis is similar to that of Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, which is to say that our political system and media environment have become "democratic" to a fault - to the point where a demagogue can seize power.

I'm only going to quote the last bit - it touches on too many points to find excerpts. You should really read the whole thing:

America has never been so ripe for tyranny
Click to expand...
Can't read at the moment but is this the piece that blames gay people for not being more magnanimous in their recent victories?
 
S

studyguy

Member
RBG is fucking 83. As badass as she is, she's not gonna live forever unfortunately. Love the woman but any more time is basically waiting for a Scalia situation. Kennedy is 79 as well then Breyer at 77. They're getting up there for sure

My last post doesn't let me edit for whatever reason so posting this here.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
On the topic of "respectable, anti-PC" people, I do love that Jonathan Haidt has started supporting GamerGaters and shutting down freedom of speech in anti-Israel stuff.

In the end, all "anti-PC" people end the same way it seems.

Haidt's idea that Trump supporters (most of whom have never gone to college or haven't been to college in 20 years) are racist because of college PC demonstrations was fucking great though. So much pure stupidity distilled so well.
 
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