PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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BanGy.nz said:
Does Trump even have campaign offices in FL? or anywhere now that I think about it?
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We're facing a scenario where one side has inherited Obama's machinery from 2008 and 2012, while the other side has a twitter account.

(okay, maybe not that pitiful.. but still more lacking than even Romney's feeble 2012 GOTV operation)
 
HylianTom said:
We're facing a scenario where one side has inherited Obama's machinery from 2008 and 2012, while the other side has a twitter account.

(okay, maybe not that pitiful.. but still more lacking than even Romney's feeble 2012 GOTV operation)
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Not only that, but he doesn't have any fundraising apparatus or donor list. Both Clinton and Sanders have fundraising juggernauts ready to go.
 
HylianTom said:
We're facing a scenario where one side has inherited Obama's machinery from 2008 and 2012, while the other side has a twitter account.

(okay, maybe not that pitiful.. but still more lacking than even Romney's feeble 2012 GOTV operation)
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Trump has word of mouth. Most of the idiots that support Trump don't know what Twitter is.
 
CrimzonSamurai said:
The problem is that for Trump the general starts tonight. Hillary is going to just have more time spent with Bernie damaging potential turnout by alienating his supporters from the Democratic ticket if he's not at the top.
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I get that, I just don't see Bernie Sanders managing to do serious damage to Clinton in the next month. At least, not any more than he already has, which hasn't been much. Most voters know that it will be Clinton and it will be Trump. Trump is going to attack Clinton (as he already has) and Clinton is going to attack Trump (as she already has been) and a bunch of people on Reddit and Facebook are going to be upset that Sanders is being ignored. And in the end, those people will almost overwhelmingly vote for Clinton because everybody. Hates. Donald. Trump. Bernie Sanders does not represent a threat. He is not going to hand the White House to Trump. Donald Trump is the weakest general election candidate in a generation, it would take a lot more than one extra month of Sanders to erase the advantage she has.

Again, it's one month. Everyone remember when he was being called on to drop out in the beginning of April? How much damage has he done in the month since?
 
Suikoguy said:
Same, i'll be back in a week. I honestly expected more people to see the damage a negative Sanders campaign will cause moving forward at this point.

If you don't have anything on the line, like losing your right to get married, then I guess it would be far easier to push for Sanders to continue what he is doing over some misplaced idea of messaging.
Many of us do have things on the line. Edit: Or rather, do not have the luxury.
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Do you really think much long-term damage will be caused by another month or two of Sanders staying in? I think Sanders should probably drop out, to give Hillary a bit more time to court his supporters, but him lasting until the convention isn't a war crime.

Hillary and Bernie have always had somewhat different goals. While Hillary's goal is much more simple -- win the presidency and strengthen the Democratic party -- Bernie is more ideological than he is partisan. He really wants to move the United States to the left, and believes the presidency is the best vantage point to do so. I think Bernie is content with not winning the White House, as long as he keeps pulling more voters toward his ideals. And Sanders' massive support among millenials, the group who will eventually run our political system, suggests that his plan is working.

Even if Bernie Sanders can't move Hillary Clinton to the left, he's already moved a generation to the left.
 
Lost most of my gains on PredictIt tonight! That annoys me less than Bernie teaching his disciples bad math.

Valhelm said:
Even if Bernie Sanders can't move Hillary Clinton to the left, he's already moved a generation to the left.
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Most people moved by Bernie alone won't even start voting in midterms. They are worthless.
 
Valhelm said:
Do you really think much long-term damage will be caused by another month or two of Sanders staying in? I think Sanders should probably drop out, to give Hillary a bit more time to court his supporters, but him lasting until the convention isn't a war crime.

Hillary and Bernie have always had somewhat different goals. While Hillary's goal is much more simple -- win the presidency and strengthen the Democratic party -- Bernie is more ideological than he is partisan. He really wants to move the United States to the left, and believes the presidency is the best vantage point to do so. I think Bernie is content with not winning the White House, as long as he keeps pulling more voters toward his ideals. And Sanders' massive support among millenials, the group who will eventually run our political system, suggests that his plan is working.

Even if Bernie Sanders can't move Hillary Clinton to the left, he's already moved a generation to the left.
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He doesn't have a movement yet. If he can keep them engaged after his campaign ends then it's a movement, if he can't then it was just a cult of personality.
 
Clinton is over 2200 with supers. She should just be lobbying undeclared supers to come out publically on her next win (KY?) to put her over the top in the eyes of the media.
 
Suikoguy said:
Same, i'll be back in a week. I honestly expected more people to see the damage a negative Sanders campaign will cause moving forward at this point.

If you don't have anything on the line, like losing your right to get married, then I guess it would be far easier to push for Sanders to continue what he is doing over some misplaced idea of messaging.
Many of us do have things on the line. Edit: Or rather, do not have the luxury.
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538 just put out a piece saying the electorate voting skews wealthy. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/
 
Valhelm said:
You ought to recognize that Bernie comes from a pretty different primordial soup than any other major US politician. While he's quite similar to Hillary in practice, his priorities are somewhat different. As an example, he wouldn't be satisfied with universal health care if it happens on the terms of profit-seeking companies. He's a big opponent of campaign finance reform, Wall Street speculation, and international capitalism because he believes the wealthy have too much power, and this power should be curbed. While Hillary Clinton discusses the wealth divide occasionally, she's really just advocating for the standard Democratic platform. Bernie Sanders and the Democratic party have never seen eye-to-eye, and the Democratic party has a pretty checkered history of fucking over other leftist groups. Had the Democrats' tolerated his viewpoints during the days of Mr. Clinton, Bernie Sanders would have become a registered Democrat much earlier than 2015.
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I dunno, this didn't really make anything much clearer for me. Trying to upend Obamacare to force a single-payer model (again there are other ways towards UHC) isn't appealing to me after seeing the blood, sweat and tears that had to be spent to get it nor do I envision some of the required tax increases to be appealing to many. Clinton also wants campaign finance reform - I don't think Sanders not having a Super-PAC is endearing given the needs of the GE and the pocket book of Trump & GOP donors if they hop on the Trump Train. His critiques of things like Wall Street and International Capitalism have their place and merit but they are we too devoid of nuance and often lacking in policy details for me to find them very appealing :/
 
I would also like to point out how wrong Nate Silver has been this cycle and how on point Sam Wang has been (as always).

Wang is our new god.

Praise be Wang. May his Wangship's rule be long and firm.

sam-wang-reduced-12217731.jpg
 
Bowdz said:
I would also like to point out how wrong Nate Silver has been this cycle and how on point Sam Wang has been (as always).

Wang is our new god.

Praise be Wang. May his Wangship's rule be long and firm.

sam-wang-reduced-12217731.jpg
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May his models always have sufficient girth.
 
Look, I want Bernie out as much as the next guy, but he really can't drop out after a "win." (I'll call it a win because he got more votes. However, this isn't a win for his campaign. He gained 3 delegates but took 83 off the table. It's not the equivalent of getting a touchdown when you're bind by 5 of them. It's getting a safety when you're behind by 5 touchdowns and fumbling the kick off.) He needs to land the plane, and he needs to do it quickly.

Hillary's going to be about 200 delegates short of the nomination tonight. She only needs Bernie out for narrative purposes, because she's not going to spend another minute worrying about him as evidenced by her Indiana strategy. (Which cost her almost nothing but forced Bernie to blow through $1.6 million for a gain of 3 delegates.)

So, she needs 200 more. There are 175 super delegates left. If she can get 110 or so of them to declare publicly, lose the rest of the May contests by no more than 25 points, she's basically at 2383 and is the presumptive nominee. Bernie then has an excuse to land the plane and be gracious (although I don't think he has tha tin him ,but maybe I'm wrong.)

That should be her campaign strategy going forward. Let Bernie buzz annoyingly in her ear if he wants. It's meaningless. If he actually cares about the issues he's campaigned on (and I believe he does) then he should, of his own free will, turn down the lying and the negativity. I'm not opposed to the DSCC and Schumer reminding him how we all him to caucus with us....provided it's done quietly.
 
If dems in general actually voted in years other than the ones in which they get to choose Mr/Mrs America then we wouldn't be in the situation America is in today.

I don't expect the situation to get much better because no one teaches ignorant ass america that the president cant do everything at the flip of the switch and we have three branches of government that all matter. it's probably above most americans heads, honestly
 
Can anyone compare Trumps GOTV to Hillary's? How I see Trump is going to have to play catch up. I doubt he'll get the staff and oraganization in a month. Also, Trump is going to have a say in the GOP platform I guarantee that there will be a fight over that. So we might not get a contested convention, but I think something similar in terms of what should the GOP should be.
 
While I'd like Bernie to duck out now while he still has some dignity, if Hillary just ignores him completely and starts the general election campaigning right now, and he starts blowing millions to gain 3 delegates, she'll eventually just get him out via his lack of resources.
 
EskimoJoe said:
I think people should really try not to freak out about Bernie Sanders. I seriously can't imagine him having any serious effect on Hillary in the general, yet some people are just flipping out. Chill, it'll be okay.

I feel like I'm in goddamn bizzaro land, sitting here waiting for the relative calmness that the General Election will bring.
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This is what I am saying. Unless he somehow mounts a third-party run (which is basically impossible from either a practica or logistical standpoint), all this "Bernie needs to drop out RIGHT NOW" stuff feels like Diablosing, particularly in light of the GOP ending up with possibly the worst candidate they've ever had. I think people are dramatically overstating Bernie's ability to influence numbers in the general.
 
Abinash117 said:
Can anyone compare Trumps GOTV to Hillary's? How I see Trump is going to have to play catch up. I doubt he'll get the staff and oraganization in a month. Also, Trump is going to have a say in the GOP platform I guarantee that there will be a fight over that. So we might not get a contested convention, but I think something similar in terms of what should the GOP should be.
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Imagine the biggest, nastiest T-rex you've ever seen in your life. It's huge, covered in razor sharp blades, breathes fire, shoots missiles, and has laser eyes. Now imagine a slug. Just a slug. Maybe someone poured some salt on it. That's the infrastructure difference.
 
Abinash117 said:
Can anyone compare Trumps GOTV to Hillary's? How I see Trump is going to have to play catch up. I doubt he'll get the staff and oraganization in a month. Also, Trump is going to have a say in the GOP platform I guarantee that there will be a fight over that. So we might not get a contested convention, but I think something similar in terms of what should the GOP should be.
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Hilary basically inherited a lot of Obama's GOTV and on the ground infrastructure. Notall of it, of course, but a good chunk of it. Hillary's going to have a united party behind her. Even if Trump gets token support, he's going to have a ton of party people who don't give a shit about him. Those party insiders are your GOTV people. You need contacts from Senators and Congresspersons to help you win. Otherwise, you're building an entire organization just to elect you in a few months. Not going to work for Trump, and most of the people, especially in swing states, are not going to want to tie themselves to Trump's ship.

As to the platform, I don't think it matters. Trump isn't beholden to the shit that came out of his mouth 30 seconds ago, so I doubt he's going to give two shits about the platform someone else wrote and voted on. He'll say what he wants, how he wants, when he wants. Platform be damned. It'll be the Trump show regardless of what the GOP wants.
 
B-Dubs said:
Imagine the biggest, nastiest T-rex you've ever seen in your life. It's huge, covered in razor sharp blades, breathes fire, shoots missiles, and has laser eyes. Now imagine a slug. Just a slug. Maybe someone poured some salt on it. That's the infrastructure difference.
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"Hillary Clinton will make Donald Trump wish he'd never been born" - Ezra Klein quoting Democratic campaign people who know shit.

Remember, ORCA was a glorified mess of a disaster and the Trump campaign still has nothing close to that. We might see Clinton win states based on sheer incompetence.

I don't want Bernie to drop out because it'll hurt Hillary. I want Bernie to drop out so he stops looking like an asshole to every member of the Democratic Party who he'll have to work with for the next cycle.
 
Paskil said:
Yes, Seth up in it balls deep.

5 Reasons Bernie Sanders Wins Big With Cruz Dropout

I will be surprised if Hillary makes any more ad buys, outside of California. Even then, if I was her campaign, I wouldn't bother. She basically has this wrapped up.
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I dunno, if she'd done some ad buys in Indiana and taken away even the semblence of a "victory" in the state, Bernie would have come off a loss tonight and have an even harder time justifying his continued presence in the race.
 
Paskil said:
Yes, Seth up in it balls deep.

5 Reasons Bernie Sanders Wins Big With Cruz Dropout

I will be surprised if Hillary makes any more ad buys, outside of California. Even then, if I was her campaign, I wouldn't bother. She basically has this wrapped up.
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Someone needs to tell this guy to set his dick on fire and eat it.

teiresias said:
I dunno, if she'd done some ad buys in Indiana and taken away even the semblence of a "victory" in the state, Bernie would have come off a loss tonight and have an even harder time justifying his continued presence in the race.
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What all of this tells me is that she doesn't think Sanders' presence is meaningful for her chances at the GE. The problem here is that "shutting the door" on Bernie Sanders has a questionable benefit for her because she has almost no chance of losing at the convention.
 
I was hoping for a contested Republican convention so that no one would get the chance to "produce" it, no glitz. But now Trump is going to have full control of the production and make the classiest, most luxurious convention you have ever seen, it will be tremendous.
 
teiresias said:
I dunno, if she'd done some ad buys in Indiana and taken away even the semblence of a "victory" in the state, Bernie would have come off a loss tonight and have an even harder time justifying his continued presence in the race.
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I don't think ad buys help her. This race is about Demographics. Indiana is very, very favorable to Bernie. Why throw money at a race that you're still likely to lose? She has deniability here. The media can say "Bernie won!" and her campaign can say "We didn't even spend money, who cares what Bernie does." It's a mindset argument. She's showing she's moved beyond the primary because she's the presumptive nominee. Let Bernie blow millions on ads. Who cares.

Besides, I highly, I highly doubt he's going to be able to keep berning through the money. He had $17 million COH at the end of March. He brought in $22 million in April. If he spent anything close to what he did in March (and he probably did), I bet he's pretty well near broke. They haven't been touting their fund raising numbers and they deliberately refused to release their COH figures.

Hillary has 100% name recognition. That's the only thing ad buys really help with. Building infrastructure in places like WV, KY and Indiana is not a great use of resources. If she's competitive there in the GE, then she's already President because there's no map in which spending in West Virginia is worthwhile in which she doesn't have 270 electoral votes.
 
Angry Grimace said:
This is what I am saying. Unless he somehow mounts a third-party run (which is basically impossible from either a practica or logistical standpoint), all this "Bernie needs to drop out RIGHT NOW" stuff feels like Diablosing, particularly in light of the GOP ending up with possibly the worst candidate they've ever had. I think people are dramatically overstating Bernie's ability to influence numbers in the general.
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Exactly. I mean, I think he should drop out, but I'm not going to worry that he isn't. He's done as much damage as he can do, I think, at this point. Hillary's already running in GE mode. I mean, we all know she's going to win, and so does she, so she's obviously going to be working as such. It's not like there's some rule that she can't attack Trump until this is over. They've been attacking each other for months! The advantage Trump gets here from being the definite nominee first is, I believe, completely inconsequential.
 
Hell, seems like the Trump story is getting 90% of the media oxygen tonight.

This has happened a few times in this cycle: Bernie wins a state, but Something happens to where the media doesn't spend much time on it at all. Hillary's been fortunate in that regard.
 
adam387 said:
Building infrastructure in places like WV, KY and Indiana is not a great use of resources. If she's competitive there in the GE, then she's already President because there's no map in which spending in West Virginia is worthwhile in which she doesn't have 270 electoral votes.
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It'd only make sense if the Indiana senate race is winnable.
 
HylianTom said:
We're facing a scenario where one side has inherited Obama's machinery from 2008 and 2012, while the other side has a twitter account.

(okay, maybe not that pitiful.. but still more lacking than even Romney's feeble 2012 GOTV operation)
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To be fair, and this is true, it's an impressive twiiter account. To be fair.
 
HylianTom said:
Hell, seems like the Trump story is getting 90% of the media oxygen tonight.

This has happened a few times in this cycle: Bernie wins a state, but Something happens to where the media doesn't spend much time on it at all. Hillary's been fortunate in that regard.
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Yeah, this wouldn't be a very good night for him to drop out for that reason alone. Not if he thinks that his message will live on after his departure.
 
EskimoJoe said:
Exactly. I mean, I think he should drop out, but I'm not going to worry that he isn't. He's done as much damage as he can do, I think, at this point. Hillary's already running in GE mode. I mean, we all know she's going to win, and so does she, so she's obviously going to be working as such. It's not like there's some rule that she can't attack Trump until this is over. They've been attacking each other for months! The advantage Trump gets here from being the definite nominee first is, I believe, completely inconsequential.
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What her strategy tells me is that she doesn't buy into the fear that I'm seeing among her supporters that Sanders' supporters are actually going to vote for Trump seven months now when Bernie has been out of the race for months.

I think its as simple as not wanting to spend money to run up the score.
 
Angry Grimace said:
What her strategy tells me is that she doesn't buy into the fear that I'm seeing among her supporters that Sanders' supporters are actually going to vote for Trump seven months now when Bernie has been out of the race for months.

I think its as simple as not wanting to spend money to run up the score.
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This hurts her BCS power ranking though.
 
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