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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Angry Grimace said:
What her strategy tells me is that she doesn't buy into the fear that I'm seeing among her supporters that Sanders' supporters are actually going to vote for Trump seven months now when Bernie has been out of the race for months.

I think its as simple as not wanting to spend money to run up the score.
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Nor should she. I've been saying it for a while, but I think that anyone saying Bernie or Bust is in one of two camps. Either they're a voter who would vote Democrat, but wants the most liberal option, in which case, they'll have like 5 months to come to their senses in the general as they usually do, or they're a voter who has never been particularly involved in politics, but is now psyched because of the anti-establishment "revolution" candidate is revving them up, in which case they're votes have never been necessary for Democrats to win in the past, so I'm not worried about them now.

I mean, I'm basing this on a lot of anecdotes, but this is all I've ever seen of the Bernie or Bust movement. Angry people that will eventually get over it, and people who weren't going to vote anyway. Either way, it's not people worth stressing out about.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Wang called this primary from the beginning. He's been the best person to follow partly because he recognized Trump's strength before everybody else did and partly because he actually bothered to figure out the implications of Republican delegate math.

Meanwhile, it's clear that Nate Silver can't lose. Gives Obama a 50.3% chance of winning Florida? "OMG, he nailed every state!" Gives Trump a 2% chance of winning the nomination? "You can't blame him because sometimes low probability events occur." I'm actually somewhat sympathetic to the second point, but the first kind of contradicts it. Really any evaluation of probabilistic predictions (e.g. Brier scores) shouldn't give much credit for something you basically call a coin flip. Also I don't think Trump winning is so much an case of something that couldn't be predicted because, well, Wang predicted it. I like Silver's work overall, but you have to hold his feet to the fire on this one.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
To be clear, I'm not afraid that him staying in hurts Hillary in the GE.

I'm just sick of hearing about him. I'm sick of the media pretending he has an actual shot at the nomination. I'm sick of his campaign engaging in behavior that has the potential to taint young people's perceptions about how politics and elections work. (Like I said earlier, the drop off in support from BerniePB.com upsets me) I'm sick of his campaign and surrogates lying. I'm sick of the double standards his campaign is putting out there. I'm sick of the false accusations they makes about Hillary, her supporters and why he's losing.

I'm just sick of the type of campaign he's decided to run, while claiming the moral high ground with an overabundance of faux outrage. But that's just me, and I don't have the power to make him drop out.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
adam387 said:
Hilary basically inherited a lot of Obama's GOTV and on the ground infrastructure. Notall of it, of course, but a good chunk of it. Hillary's going to have a united party behind her. Even if Trump gets token support, he's going to have a ton of party people who don't give a shit about him. Those party insiders are your GOTV people. You need contacts from Senators and Congresspersons to help you win. Otherwise, you're building an entire organization just to elect you in a few months. Not going to work for Trump, and most of the people, especially in swing states, are not going to want to tie themselves to Trump's ship.

As to the platform, I don't think it matters. Trump isn't beholden to the shit that came out of his mouth 30 seconds ago, so I doubt he's going to give two shits about the platform someone else wrote and voted on. He'll say what he wants, how he wants, when he wants. Platform be damned. It'll be the Trump show regardless of what the GOP wants.
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Okay that makes sense, but I wanted some specifics like how much staff Trump as in states now, were the HQ is, what exact strategies they are doing, donor list, ground operations, digital operations, etc.

I heard on MSNBC that Trump wants to have some control on the party or something like that. Considering he is trying to get establishment support, I believe he cares somewhat. Until he doesn't get what he wants. The problem of Trump having saying something and the party doing different is going to badly effect him, by showing he isn't a leader among other things. I was wondering on just how badly the GOP will operate when they have something like banning all Muslims from entering the country and building the wall. It'll look soooo bad on the party, it'll hurt relations within the party and connections to other outside entities. Business people can't support a party that has a platform that basically supports all that.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
adam387 said:
To be clear, I'm not afraid that him staying in hurts Hillary in the GE.

I'm just sick of hearing about him. I'm sick of the media pretending he has an actual shot at the nomination. I'm sick of his campaign engaging in behavior that has the potential to taint young people's perceptions about how politics and elections work. (Like I said earlier, the drop off in support from BerniePB.com upsets me) I'm sick of his campaign and surrogates lying. I'm sick of the double standards his campaign is putting out there. I'm sick of the false accusations they makes about Hillary, her supporters and why he's losing.

I'm just sick of the type of campaign he's decided to run, while claiming the moral high ground with an overabundance of faux outrage. But that's just me, and I don't have the power to make him drop out.
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I think you were banned but this is my biggest fear and I posted about it before
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Paskil said:
Yes, Seth up in it balls deep.

5 Reasons Bernie Sanders Wins Big With Cruz Dropout

I will be surprised if Hillary makes any more ad buys, outside of California. Even then, if I was her campaign, I wouldn't bother. She basically has this wrapped up.
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I appreciate the cherry picking of a single poll and the assertions that have zero basis in data (Sanders is looking strong in California based on what exactly?) but it just doesn't feel like a Seth Abramson article without unskewing some election results. Where's the reference to Bernie winning Arizona?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Abinash117 said:
Okay that makes sense, but I wanted some specifics like how much staff Trump as in states now, were the HQ is, what exact strategies they are doing, donor list, ground operations, digital operations, etc.

I heard on MSNBC that Trump wants to have some control on the party or something like that. Considering he is trying to get establishment support, I believe he cares somewhat. Until he doesn't get what he wants. The problem of Trump having saying something and the party doing different is going to badly effect him, by showing he isn't a leader among other things. I was wondering on just how badly the GOP will operate when they have something like banning all Muslims from entering the country and building the wall. It'll look soooo bad on the party, it'll hurt relations within the party and connections to other outside entities. Business people can't support a party that has a platform that basically supports all that.
Click to expand...

To the first point, it's still early days. We're not going to have any of that information yet. However, If the primaries are anything to go by, he essentially had zero ground game in most of the states. He started doing better when he hired some people. Again, though, take Ohio for example. Hillary will have access to all of Sherrod Brown's donors, volunteers, local unions, etc. Portman is not going to give that information to Trump if Trump has the potential for damaging his re-election campaign. Trump's going to have to build that shit from the ground up because the RNC is going to do what they have to to protect the House and try to keep a death grip on the few swingy senate seats they hope to keep.

As to the platform, he'll try to influence it, of course. However, I don't think his supporters will be pissy if what he wants isn't in it, because he's managed to prove that he's an outsider and the party is against him. The GOP isn't going to be able to force him to moderate on the wall and the muslin ban. That is his campaign.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
I think you were banned but this is my biggest fear and I posted about it before
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HylianHistorian said:
Damn, so you two noticed that as well... Such a huge shame.:/
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It upsets me so much. Bernie had the potential to actually transition those people towards staying active and engaged. Instead, he continued with the "I will win! Corruption! Fraud!" thing. He had these people who were so damn engaged. Instead of nurturing that, he managed to convince the that this whole thing is rigged and that if your person doesn't win, then FRAUD!

So damn upsetting.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
13173879_10153387407987142_8315576686894467552_n.jpg
 
C

Crocodile

Member
adam387 said:
To be clear, I'm not afraid that him staying in hurts Hillary in the GE.

I'm just sick of hearing about him. I'm sick of the media pretending he has an actual shot at the nomination. I'm sick of his campaign engaging in behavior that has the potential to taint young people's perceptions about how politics and elections work. (Like I said earlier, the drop off in support from BerniePB.com upsets me) I'm sick of his campaign and surrogates lying. I'm sick of the double standards his campaign is putting out there. I'm sick of the false accusations they makes about Hillary, her supporters and why he's losing.

I'm just sick of the type of campaign he's decided to run, while claiming the moral high ground with an overabundance of faux outrage. But that's just me, and I don't have the power to make him drop out.
Click to expand...

Every-time Sanders argues for trying to flip the superdelegates or argue his GE polls are meaningful or imply corruption without evidence I want to stick a pencil in my ear. The arguments are so completely of sense and fail to stand up to any scrutiny its getting really annoying. I'm tired of it :(
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Tonight was the beginning of Ted Cruz's descent to a talk radio host saying things like, "Well, when I was in the United States Senate, let me tell you..."
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Yeah, I can't say I'm too worried about this generation of voters being corrupted or something by Bernie running some sort of petty campaign. I think these concerns are insanely overblown. Mountains from molehills.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
PantherLotus said:
is she aiming for a VP nod? She'd lock down most of the Bernie vote.
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I don't think Warren would shore up any weaknesses. Again, I think the idea that Hillary is going to lose because of an issue turning out hyper-liberals is anecdotal evidence at best.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Kristoffer said:
I just realized we traded brainchild for adam. Our leaders make the worst deals.
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Um...thanks? Sorry? Banana? Not sure what to do with that, to be honest .:p

Crocodile said:
Every-time Sanders argues for trying to flip the superdelegates or argue his GE polls are meaningful or imply corruption without evidence I want to stick a pencil in my ear. The arguments are so completely of sense and fail to stand up to any scrutiny its getting really annoying. I'm tired of it :(
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I agree. I'm so tired of that stuff. However, because his arguments are not based on logic, facts or anything else, he's decided to walk down this path and he's going to stick to it. He's really only hurting himself, even though he's managed to give Trump some great sound bites to use...so thanks for that, Bernie.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Trump has no ground game, the party will be do busy trying to save their asses downballot to offer any meaningful help, he's completely toxic with women and minorities, and Democratic operatives are sitting on a ton of opposition research about him.

And yet we're going to have to endure months of diablosing about how he'll flip all the swing states by mobilizing white working class men.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
adam387 said:
To the first point, it's still early days. We're not going to have any of that information yet. However, If the primaries are anything to go by, he essentially had zero ground game in most of the states. He started doing better when he hired some people. Again, though, take Ohio for example. Hillary will have access to all of Sherrod Brown's donors, volunteers, local unions, etc. Portman is not going to give that information to Trump if Trump has the potential for damaging his re-election campaign. Trump's going to have to build that shit from the ground up because the RNC is going to do what they have to to protect the House and try to keep a death grip on the few swingy senate seats they hope to keep.

As to the platform, he'll try to influence it, of course. However, I don't think his supporters will be pissy if what he wants isn't in it, because he's managed to prove that he's an outsider and the party is against him. The GOP isn't going to be able to force him to moderate on the wall and the muslin ban. That is his campaign.
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Okay that makes more sense now.

I'm not really taking about his supporter, but himself. His supporters probably don't have allegiance to the party, or they might want him to change the party though. I'm talking about Trump specifically. I expect him to 'negotiate' , but most of his plans whatever it is won't be on the platform or toned down significantly. He'll throw a hissy fit and does his own thing. I honestly expect there to be two separate GOP campaigns. I just think it'll be damaging if any of his ideas becomes part of the party officially and if it becomes two campaigns it'll damage Trump in the party. Trump basically is the party leader now.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
EskimoJoe said:
Yeah, I can't say I'm too worried about this generation of voters being corrupted or something by Bernie running some sort of petty campaign. I think these concerns are insanely overblown. Mountains from molehills.
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That's not what I'm arguing, just to be clear. I'm saying he engaged a bunch of young people, but he's managing to get them into believing that their activism made no difference because FRAUD! DNC! DWS! Bill Clinton! Clearly, the 3 million calls didn't make themselves. He was able to get a ton of people invested enough to make those calls, and do the shitty work that helps GOTV. Seeing those numbers just disappear is disheartening, because I think he could have navigated that transition a hell of a lot better than he did.

When Hillary came to our local Democratic office in 2008, a group of us told her we had volunteered for her during the primary. The first thing she said was thank you (something Bernie has a spotty record on) and the second thing she said was "I hope you're working as hard for Senator Obama as you did for me."

That shit is classy.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Abinash117 said:
Okay that makes more sense now.

I'm not really taking about his supporter, but himself. His supporters probably don't have allegiance to the party, or they might want him to change the party though. I'm talking about Trump specifically. I expect him to 'negotiate' , but most of his plans whatever it is won't be on the platform or toned down significantly. He'll throw a hissy fit and does his own thing. I honestly expect there to be two separate GOP campaigns. I just think it'll be damaging if any of his ideas becomes part of the party officially and if it becomes two campaigns it'll damage Trump in the party. Trump basically is the party leader now.
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Trump to the GOP...

WzKQNoi.gif
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
So I think what Benchmark Politics is doing is pretty neat, but I find the way they're bragging about the Democratic race (we did better than the polls!) a bit much when the polls were more accurate than they were on the Republican side. Also, they were very proud of calling Allen the key county to watch on the Democratic side, but they said the same thing on the Republican side and it turned out to be one of only five counties that went for Cruz.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
If Hillary can get ~10-12% of registered Republicans and only lose ~5-6% of registered Dems, that would be an amazing coup.

But that still means that 88-90% of Republicans will fall in line.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
Is it wrong for me to upend my life and just move to Ohio to work for Clinton? I mean, I just upended my life recently anyway, and I am not working...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Cincinnati's Chris Wyant to run Hillary Clinton's Ohio campaign

Hyde Park native Chris Wyant, a veteran of President Barack Obama's campaigns, will direct Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's Ohio campaign, Clinton's campaign confirmed to The Enquirer Tuesday.

Wyant, 33, directed the Ohio Democratic Party's efforts to support Obama's general election campaign in 2012 and served as deputy field director for Eastern Ohio for Obama in 2008. He most recently served as a managing director of Enroll America, an effort to sign people up for insurance offered through Obama's health care law.
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More Obama machinery falling into place.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/727630825060225029
The vast majority of Republicans will vote for Trump. But a 85% majority vs a 93% majority makes a big difference.
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Whatever else he's gotten wrong this primary Nate is right here. The vast majority of Republicans will vote for Trump. That doesn't mean there won't be significant defections. Many Republicans are legitimately terrified of what Trump will do to their party and to the country and, as much as Trump is the monster they created, their fears are based in reality.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I mean, I'm not a woman, but... I don't know, it's pretty hard to envision even "one of the good ones" voting for a man who called one of his wives "nice tits, no brains" and wanted his two day old daughter to grow huge tits.

So, maybe a few Republican women will cross over? There has to be some, right?
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
So tomorrow Senate Republicans wake-up to the reality that they are currently blocking Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee so that Donald Trump can make that decision...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I wonder if South Park asshole voters could be persuaded to vote for candidates that swore to eliminate first past the post so we could get five or so different parties.

Probably too complex of an appeal though.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, I'm not a woman, but... I don't know, it's pretty hard to envision even "one of the good ones" voting for a man who called one of his wives "nice tits, no brains" and wanted his two day old daughter to grow huge tits.

So, maybe a few Republican women will cross over? There has to be some, right?
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Didn't the two week ad campaign from the Our PRINCIPLES PAC with the women reading Trump's quotes drive his negatives among women up 19%? In two freaking weeks. Those types of ads will blanket the national airwaves until November. He is fucked among women and he is fucked with Hispanics.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, I'm not a woman, but... I don't know, it's pretty hard to envision even "one of the good ones" voting for a man who called one of his wives "nice tits, no brains" and wanted his two day old daughter to grow huge tits.

So, maybe a few Republican women will cross over? There has to be some, right?
Click to expand...

This is an underrated aspect of why Trump is going to be such a terrible general election candidate. For all the talk about how much he alienates minority voters, people tend to forget how terribly he does with women voters.

But people are living in this fantasy world where if you just win white men enough none of that will matter.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Bowdz said:
Didn't the two week ad campaign from the Our PRINCIPLES PAC with the women reading Trump's quotes drive his negatives among women up 19%? In two freaking weeks. Those types of ads will blanket the national airwaves until November. He is fucked among women and he is fucked with Hispanics.
Click to expand...

If reports about the mountains of opposition research Democrats have been sitting on are to be believed...
 
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